• #35,281
I agree that they have checked the threads (which creeps me out) but law enforcement and prosecutors stated clearly that Pappa Rogers (or whatever the spelling) wasn’t BK in the press conference after the sentencing. Apologies I don’t have the time stamp at this moment, but the thread linked also includes discussions of their statement.

Yes, I remember all that, too! Thanks for info. I don’t want to derail to another case too much.

It still seemed to me, that some PR posts came across taunting, and misleading to LE.

Anyway, I think perps, at the very least, follow closely, mainly “read only”, see what theories are coming up. So they know if it’s time to flee.

JMO
 
  • #35,283
If so, he probably hates the fact that the consensus is that he is a bumbling idiot! jmo
Haha, I know, so crazy he was so slow, especially 40 minutes inside is amazing to me.

JMO
 
  • #35,284

The search to locate Nancy Guthrie's kidnapper is being looked at through a new lens ... it's not about tips or what we've seen of the abductor on camera ... it's about finding someone who fits that description -- who has been missing for 3 weeks.
 
  • #35,285
Or the FBI altered the image to showcase clothing etc
Late to the party (I need more days off) on this discussion but to me the sky in the background of no backpack vs backpack+shadow is also very different. Agree it could be a different night entirely -IMO.
 
  • #35,286
I am completely caught up with all the various posts about the APS card and have a question ❓:

Just very curious as to what people think may be the significance of the APS card in terms of the suspect: Do they think he may have called it in, and why? Other than that, it's a pretty banal piece of evidence just pointing to bureaucratic protocol, IMO.
 
  • #35,287

The search to locate Nancy Guthrie's kidnapper is being looked at through a new lens ... it's not about tips or what we've seen of the abductor on camera ... it's about finding someone who fits that description -- who has been missing for 3 weeks.
That would seem to narrow it down!

On the other hand, how do they know he's not hiding in plain sight?
 
  • #35,288
That would seem to narrow it down!
Exactly. I would hope LE has already been working this angle and that they are also combing through new current missing persons reports too.
 
  • #35,289
That would seem to narrow it down!

On the other hand, how do they know he's not hiding in plain sight?
Ummm Well we haven’t been able to find him so we assume he’s hiding….Does not envoke a high level of confidence imo
 
  • #35,290
As I posted earlier...The APS card is insignificant. I think we are beating the APS card into a pulp! Arizona, Adult Protective Services (APS) becomes involved when an older adult is missing and suspected of being a victim of financial exploitation, as this falls under the Arizona Adult Protective Services Act (APSA), protecting vulnerable adults from abuse and exploitation. https://des.az.gov/featured-story/helping-older-adults jmo

I don't believe it's only for missing venerable adults or financial exploitation. IMO From your own posted link:

Adult Protective Services investigates reports of abuse, neglect and exploitation of vulnerable adults. APS may also become involved when there is a claim of self-neglect when an adult with physical or mental impairments is not able to meet their basic needs (such as food, shelter, health care, managing money, etc.) which then impacts the adult’s physical health, mental health or general safety. The goal of APS is to prioritize an adult’s right to make their own decisions while keeping them safe.

ETA link: https://des.az.gov/featured-story/helping-older-adults
 
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  • #35,291
IIRC there is only one way (road) in and out of Nancy's property. They could be looking at all doorbell or cam footage they can get to see if one car in particular made trips by the residence during that month. I doubt there is a lot of traffic in general, so a car checking out or driving by that residence would probably stick out.
JMO

Not true.

According to Google Maps, there are several routes in and out of her neighborhood.

There are five different directions a driver could take from the street in front of NG’s house.
 
  • #35,292
Ummm Well we haven’t been able to find him so we assume he’s hiding….Does not envoke a high level of confidence imo
They would be no more findable right now if they were not hiding than if they were. In fact, they'd likely be easier to identify if they suddenly dropped off the map 3 weeks ago
 
  • #35,293
yes.

A Republic reporter saw the card on Feb. 3 while taking photographs at the front door. A reporter called the phone number listed. An agent said the card was left after Nancy Guthrie’s disappearance, not before.

It was left so Nancy Guthrie, an older adult who lived alone, could contact the agency if she needed services once she returned home safe.

Thanks for posting. Unfortunately, I don't have access to this article as I'm not a subscriber.

Does it mention if a neighbor called it in?

If not, this goes along with my speculation earlier in the thread that it was part of a missing persons procedure within APS.
 
  • #35,294
As I posted earlier...The APS card is insignificant. I think we are beating the APS card into a pulp! Arizona, Adult Protective Services (APS) becomes involved when an older adult is missing and suspected of being a victim of financial exploitation, as this falls under the Arizona Adult Protective Services Act (APSA), protecting vulnerable adults from abuse and exploitation. https://des.az.gov/featured-story/helping-older-adults jmo
I'm sure the person whose name is on the card has been talked to by now IMO
 
  • #35,295
Yes, I remember all that, too! Thanks for info. I don’t want to derail to another case too much.

It still seemed to me, that some PR posts came across taunting, and misleading to LE.

Anyway, I think perps, at the very least, follow closely, mainly “read only”, see what theories are coming up. So they know if it’s time to flee.

JMO
Of course and really not meant towards you as much as that thing where info. takes on its own life and begins to become “fact” so I figured I would post a link. This thread will require its own index it is so long!
 
  • #35,296
Thanks for posting. Unfortunately, I don't have access to this article as I'm not a subscriber.

Does it mention if a neighbor called it in?

If not, this goes along with my speculation earlier in the thread that it was part of a missing persons procedure within APS.

It just mentions exactly what I posted from the article ;)

No mention of a neighbor.

IMO it was because of the SAFE (formerly Silver) alert for NG and it was requested because of that, neighbor, LE, doesn't matter. It was after she was reported missing and has no part of this investigation. Other than the fact that the employee of APS was even able to leave the card at the front door, where we all clearly saw blood and was part of a crime scene that LE released WAY too early, again IMO.
 
  • #35,297
  • #35,298
Ummm Well we haven’t been able to find him so we assume he’s hiding….Does not envoke a high level of confidence imo
No snark needed.
Yes, but sometimes the suspect stays put and is visible but still not found, as in Richard Allen. Could be the same case here, IMO.
 
  • #35,299
I’m my opinion the FBI already had ground crews, looking for evidence or a DB.

I saw a map, and officers walking through nearby desert brush, included cacti, tumbleweed, bushes, etc.

Most ground searches I have seen before were more thorough, really looking in and under foliage. In this case, desert plants have sharp points, and this brush is very hard to look through. No shade, just saying, it must be very hard when searching to work around sharp plants.

I’m sure she will eventually be found. I believe a hiker near a desert road, up the hill from NGs neighborhood. Maybe near a hiking or bike trail. How would the FBI go about a search of probable places to search?

Look down washes, a rain runoff track, mostly no plants. Usually dry, now raining, never turns to mud. It was noted, the dirt roads are very heavy packed earth, a combo of dirt, sand and crushed rock, combines to form a very solid surface, tire marks don’t show well, surface is too hard.

jMO
The Tucson Loop (bike trail) goes near the Catalina Foothills. I have biked the trail. Never had reason to deviate from the trail, but it looks like (map) it's possible to exit the trail to a road to Catalina.
 
  • #35,300
Not true.

According to Google Maps, there are several routes in and out of her neighborhood.

There are five different directions a driver could take from the street in front of NG’s house.
This is another reason I think she’s local or was at least being held locally in the beginning. Once you’re out of the foothills neighborhood dont all these potential routes involve hitting major intersections or highways ( which hopefully have cameras) or is there a way to access side and back roads to avoid these areas?
 

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