My theory has been that originally the perpetrator did enter through a back door and that he had a driver waiting for him in the near vicinity. I believe a confrontation happened inside the home and that Nancy was unconscious and seriously hurt. An unconscious or deceased person is very heavy to carry. They decided to take her out the front door to avoid carrying her all around from the back of the house. This is when it became necessary to remove the Nest camera from the front.
There is a u-shaped driveway from the street that goes up to the front door and comes out the other side to the street. If you use this driveway you can drive in quickly, carry her down the steps, into the vehicle, and drive right out. If you use the garage to take her away, you have to pull in to the right side of the house up to the garage and back out or make a u turn which would take much more time.
Attached is a link to a Fox News drone capture of Nancy Guthrie’s home for reference:
I'm interested in teasing this out, if possible, with some of my thoughts on this.
Guy knows he is being captured on video, hence he tries to cover the lens before he removes it. But he is recorded on his approach, showing his entire height, frame, gait, eyes, mouth, and outfit, and while he turns around to look for material to cover it, showing his backpack, so the only part he would be attempting to conceal from the camera would be the manner of Nancy's removal, the direction/location of his vehicle, and a side view of his vehicle departing, if he drove past the house. He could have easily covered his license plate. It's possible after the camera removal it was dark in the porch and he didn't notice the blood trail giving direction to the vehicle, and possible shoe prints he left behind.
Did he think removing the camera would remove storage of the video?
If he's already injured Nancy and he's gained access through the back and is not already on video on the front camera, but wants to remove Nancy through the front, why not just open the front door and smash off the camera with an outstretched arm from the doorway, like he appears to have had something to smash the back floodlights?
Why is he wearing his backpack if he is now coming to remove Nancy and will need to lift and carry her extra weight? How did he carry Nancy with his backpack straps on his shoulders? Why not leave it on the path or in the vegetation, to quickly pick up later when the camera has gone? What is in the backpack that he needs to bring it to the house? Surely he knows he could get a sheet or blanket off the bed for instance if he wants to wrap up Nancy. If it's a tarp to conceal Nancy in the vehicle, he could have had it already laid out in the trunk or the back seat. Same if it's a clean pair of shoes for him to change into. It doesn't contain his weapon. I find it really puzzling that he is wearing the backpack and it seems to contain a lot more than a skein of rope, a roll of tape, and zip ties.
I think he is approaching the porch cautiously, taking his time and almost tiptoeing, with his head down and stepping to the side of the camera as if he hasn't yet been inside the house - because if he thinks the camera removal will delete video storage he doesn't need to worry about hiding his face and covering the lens to remove it. It seems to be a level of pre-entry precaution to me, in case someone is awake and watching it in real time. I also think he moves his hands defensively as he first approaches, his left hand to steady his holster and his right hand tensed ready to draw his gun, which he wouldn't need to do if he knows Nancy is already incapacitated inside.
I really want to know why he had a full backpack, unless it was a second bag to fill up anticipating a large haul of valuables. But with the open top appearing to reveal something long and sturdy inside, I'm thinking something like a crow bar.
JMO