AZ Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[birdbox]

moo....Shoes seem different, mask not tucked in & of course lighting is different with no moon. Build seems the same. Same person different night.

It really looks like 2 different guys to me. The first guy looks older, frumpier, almost slightly pot belly in the making. Other guy looks younger more fit.

 

[Hopefulcat]

So impressed with SG's video as I watched it a second time. For a national media personality to show that kind of vulnerability, that kind of raw grief and anxiety, that kind of conscientiousness, that kind of consideration, that kind of self-awareness, and that kind of humility, speaks volumes about the kind of mother that raised her.

JMO.

Agree! I loved her from her early days on court tv. She displayed such integrity. I don’t particularly follow the Today show but always admired her as a person of substance. She deserves some peace. I pray this family gets that. Disappearances are the most cruel of losses.

My masters thesis many years ago was on the disappeared during the Guatemalan conflict. Thousands. I will never forget them or the stories of those that loved them.

This case like so many others on this site that I have been quietly following for years remind me of the injustice and continual pain those with missing family members are subjected to. Death isn’t actually the worst outcome for loved ones- it’s the not knowing. May there be answers soon.

 

[AppleTreeGreen]

The use of the Lantana does make me wonder if in an attempt to not be seen on the Nest camera he didn’t plan on using the front door at all as he carried out the abduction. I wonder this because as shown by the photo taken at some point prior to the crime, he was aware of the camera’s existence and location. However, instead of coming prepared beforehand with a piece of cloth, rag or even paper to cover it as he takes it off he has to rely on the lantana. Considering the crime that is taking place that seems like a huge risk or misstep not to be ready and well-prepared for, especially since the lantana didn’t even seem to work or having to hold just added to the struggle of removing it from the mount. Is it possible that the perhaps the perp planned to use the side or back doors and driveway that night instead to avoid the Nest camera but NG got hurt and was no longer able to walk that distance anymore? Did something go wrong or something occurred that was urgent enough that perhaps instead of walking to the getaway car they needed the car to pull up to the house as they were now forced to exit the front and had to get rid of the Nest camera?

It also noticed that towards the end of the video some type of flashlight or portable lamps or something suddenly appears over the perp’s left shoulder while he still trying to remove the camera? It seems to be coming from the direction of the door and moves up and down once or twice before the video stops. Since the perp is not the one manipulating the object is this, IMO, could further indicate or imply that more than one perpetrator was both involved and at NG’s home that night. If the object or tool is coming from the direction of the door, could this also indicate they are holding it through the screen door and that the perps had already entered NG’s home by the time they are seen on camera?

Just my own thoughts or speculation

 

[buffalogal]

I know I'm days behind, which on this page is like years, Just reading Mr. Morgan's fabulous post; very rational and well thought out. This point caught my eye.
"The intruder appears to not have full use of his right hand, right elbow, and right leg, making it difficult for him to climb to the roof to remove cameras."
Or, maybe they fell over that two foot pile of rocks on their way to the front door? Even if they'd carefully cased the house, I would think it would be easy to remember a doorbell camera but not a random pile of rocks, especially at night when you're faced with a sudden change of plans and trying to get gone. On one had, you could be looking for a kidnapper with mobility issues like having had a stroke, on the other, a man with a lot of new bruises that would have faded by now. Maybe he broke something and ended up at an urgent care clinic?

 

[Rush4087]

Read again. They didnt even know it had been taped.

Said its about time.

Why not fenced from the first.

The family was in possession since the 3rd.

What they did or didnt do is none of our business.

all imo

Since the 2nd. The PCSO released the crime scene back to the family less than 24 hours after the 911 call, and before the FBI could get there

Jmo

 

[Vaderman]

Law enforcement changing their position on offering a reward is not a positive sign for the state of the investigation.

The amount of tips has not been an issue, but the quality is obviously lacking.

The danger here is that this encourages more of the same, but obviously they believe the upside outweighs that risk.

This never had anything to do with the family’s willingness to pay. It’s strategy, plain and simple.

I go back to the Jayme Closs case where it dwindled to people calling to tell authorities they'd had dreams about a young girl's body laying in an empty barn. I can't even imagine the amount of garbage investigators have to sift through.

 

[submarine7]

The image of the no back-pack guy looks like he stuffed something under his jacket at his stomach, which makes it look poofy. MOO

Almost like a pregnant belly.

 

[squareandrabbet]

Long time reader, but I had to register to share some theories I haven’t seen much here or anywhere else online.

These deal with two main issues: cameras and the timeline (40+ minutes). IMO major possibilities are being overlooked in both cases. When something doesn’t make sense, that usually means we just haven’t found the right explanation yet. IMO the explanation I will offer below makes a lot of seemingly confusing data points fit perfectly.

This is all just my opinion based on things we have heard.

Topic #1: Cameras

First, cameras: IMO this guy WANTED to be seen. In fact, it was a key part of his strategy. Both times, but especially the first time he showed up. As someone who has these types of cameras as part of my home security system and understands them extremely well, it actually makes perfect sense that he would want to trigger them AND appear in the image.

Think of a camera as an early warning system as much as it is a camera. Some people silence them all night and rely on them to provide retroactive evidence of a crime. Others want the alerts to wake them up so they have early warning of danger. Some do both. That makes all the difference in this crime.

One of the underappreciated aspects of Blink, Nest, Ring, and the like is that in addition to being cameras and microphones, they also act as perimeter annunciators. What I mean by that is that it is practically impossible to disable them without first triggering them, which sends an immediate alert to someone’s phone (sometimes multiple people’s phones, depending on the setup). You can rip the camera off the wall and destroy it but it’s already too late: it has served its purpose and alerted the owner, who is possibly now awake and taking any number of actions. The criminal’s element of surprise is gone and their presence is known. That is, unless the homeowner silences alerts at night and just checks in the morning (as most people do because they don’t want to wake up every time a cat walks across their porch in the middle of the night).

In this scenario, he didn’t care about being filmed per se. He’s well disguised anyway and likely assumes he will be filmed somewhere by a camera he missed. IMO his concern was 100% about whether the alerts would wake Nancy up before he got inside and spoil his plan.

He needed the element of surprise. An 84 year old woman is definitely going to dial 911 if she is awakened by a break- in in progress. Even if he gets her out before police arrive, the police are now aware of a break-in/kidnapping in progress and will be swarming the entire neighborhood. The criminal might even drive past a responding officer, who will afterwards recall seeing the vehicle leaving the neighborhood as they responded. They might even call it in and have another officer stop that vehicle in case it is the perp. Risk goes way, way up if Nancy wakes up at any point before he gets inside and can stop her from calling 911.

Let’s assume this new timeline of photos is correct: he was there beforehand, likely an earlier date. I have thought since the photos first emerged that they must have been taken on different nights. Most people have focused on the shoes, lack of backpack, lack of holster… but the first thing I noticed was the distinct lack of a shadow (his shadow is clearly visible on the night he wore the backpack and holster, but absent in the photo where he is not wearing them).

This suggests a pitch black night in the earlier timeframe photo, perfect for recon. He wears his same gear that he’ll wear later because he is doing a dry run and wants it to feel as much like the real thing as possible, and he also does not want to be identified. He also wants to appear as menacing as possible for the camera as mentioned above.

He has to know what to expect, if anything, when the camera is triggered. And he would understand that triggering it is unavoidable.

Even if the criminal has a wifi jammer most systems will then alert the owner that all the modules are down. So they’re now awake at a minimum and likely to notice sounds outside or even to look out the windows to investigate, because that is suspicious.

These alerts could very well be loud and wake the person up. The person might then turn lights on in the house, go to live view to see what is going on, or dial 911 or text a family member depending on the circumstances. Or grab a firearm that they have for protection. Maybe all of the above. The criminal has no idea what is going on, if anything at all. Almost all of these systems will send an immediate thumbnail before recording so that even if the camera is disabled before the video is uploaded to the cloud you have an image of whatever set it off on your phone.

IMO this guy is almost posing for the camera on the earlier date. He needs to find out: what happens if the camera alerts AND the image in the thumbnail or on the phone is of a terrifying man in a mask and gloves? Notice he stands far enough away that you can see he looks terrifying but can’t make out much in terms of ID. It’s no good if it alerts and the image is some strange blur or nothing at all, because those of us who have these cameras see that stuff all the time. Cats, rabbits, the wind.. All cause triggers. You’re not raising the alarm so to speak, for every single time it notifies you of motion.

He needs the person inside to see a central casting bad guy so that they will react however they are going to react. That reaction will then be taken into account in whatever plans he has for the actual night of the kidnapping. Thus the need for a 2-part plan.

Now imagine you are 84. Your phone alerts and wakes you up in the middle of the night. You see THAT on your screen. You are almost certainly going to react. You likely dial 911. You turn on lights in the house because you are definitely not going to want to sit in the dark until cops come. You text or call family or neighbors for help right after 911. In short, ruckus ensues.

Or maybe your family also gets the alerts. It’s not yet 2AM on a Saturday. It’s not impossible that someone else also gets the alert who is actually still awake, watching TV, playing video games, whatever. They see that nightmare on grandma’s front door, or mom’s front door. Obviously action will be taken of some type.

So he poses to ensure that he has triggered the camera, then quickly retreats down the street into the brush somewhere to hide. Do lights come on? Do police arrive? Does a dog bark? Is there any activity at all?

Hmm, nothing. Nothing happens at all he notices. So he slinks away into the darkness, confident that the cameras are no real threat. The biggest threat of the cameras is that they wake Nancy up before he can get inside, meaning 911 is called.

So he waits a couple weeks and watches off and on. Are more visible security measures taken? Do new cameras appear?

Now, here’s the thing: he is likely feeling better in terms of not alerting anyone inside based on previous recon. But that could be a one-off. Maybe she silenced her phone that night but not this one. So he needs a quick repeat on the night of.

This is where the timeline comes in.

Topic #2: Timeline on the Night of the Kidnapping

I do not believe at all that he was inside the house for 40+ minutes as we keep hearing almost everywhere. That makes zero sense for a kidnapping, where every moment spent at the scene in contact with the victim= increased risk.

In this scenario I have described he returns a couple of weeks later, fairly confident that the cameras pose no real threat. He likely now assumes Nancy has her phone on silent so that every time a cat or other animal walks by at night she doesn’t wake up.

However, he has to make sure, just in case she woke up the next morning (from the earlier recon) and saw that image and NOW takes more security steps, such as having her alerts on loud enough to wake her up. Maybe a neighbor or someone else is also now getting them as a backup. He doesn’t know, so he goes up to the porch, knowing the camera will activate. Of course he ducks his head just in case (why over expose himself to being filmed?).

This is a test… What will happen?

The lantana also serves a purpose: it looks even more scary/wrong. If anyone is seeing someone do that they are raising the alarm 100% for sure. It escalates from a simple prowler on the porch to likely intent to cause harm.

But nothing happens. He slinks to the shadows again and waits. No lights come on. No cops show up. This could account for a solid 15-20 minutes of that 40 minute timeline we keep hearing about. Again, there is no real rush here. If he is detected he will escape into the pitch black and brush unseen. If he is not detected then it’s like he just arrived. It’s likely he has a getaway driver close by but not so close that if police suddenly come flying down the street his car isn’t sitting there parked suspiciously. It’s not like he can hop into a car and take off 2 houses down at 2:30 AM or so when the police are responding to a suspicious man trying to break into a house.

We have also heard about a second motion detection after 2, about 15 minutes or so before Nancy’s pacemaker disconnected from her watch. This could be the kidnapper(s) proceeding to gain entry into the house, meaning they would have only been inside for 10 minutes or less in total, which makes a lot more sense. One restrains her while the other goes and gets the car OR signals the getaway driver that it’s time, which obviously would not be in the driveway to begin with in case their camera test resulted in their presence being detected. So that takes a few minutes, as does getting her into the car, situated, and leaving.

If you take all that into account, we could be talking 5-10 minutes or even less in the house in total. If they were there for 40 minutes they would have cleaned up all the blood drops. Instead, IMO, they got in as quietly as possible after making sure the cameras didn’t wake anyone up, and got her out as quickly as possible, because who knows what little hidden cameras or security items they could miss. Kidnappers act fast. They don’t stick around the scene any longer than needed once the crime is in motion.

Just my theory, but I think it explains this person’s actions. Far from being a bumbling amateur, this was IMO a clever test to see what alerts, if any, would result from the camera before proceeding into the house.

Great post!

Imo it's a pretty decent call since we were told fairly early in the investigation that Nancy's Ring subscription was not active, meaning the cameras just captured things for their personal use but did not alert (an economy which I expect the Guthries will regret until the end of time); but then the problem again becomes, why kidnap her at length unless you think there's ransom forthcoming; and why is there no active ransom demand forthcoming?

IMO, there have been quite a few kidnappings where the kidnapper either stopped responding to ransom negotiations or kept baselessly taunting the family at home because they knew their subject was already deceased (the Lindbergh baby was such a one, IIRC); though of course I should say this is contingent on assuming that one of the past ransom demands we heard about in connection with this case was in fact "live" and did come from this kidnapper.

 

[Data Sleuth]

JMO as a long time gun owner and concealed carrier - appendix carry is usually concealed underneath clothing, using an inside the waistband holster or a belly band. Usually, appendix carry is used for smaller pistols for comfort and concealment.

Maybe there's one out there, but I've never seen an appendix carry holster exposed like in the photos. They are worn underneath pants, and held in place by clips or belts, or in the case of belly bands, elastic girdle-like bands that are worn on the body underneath clothing. The idea is to not only have the pistol handy, but to conceal it well so that its outline is not visible through clothing.

My opinion is that the unidentified individual is indulging in some kind of sexual symbolism by this unconventional carry mode.

Just my opinion and experience.

Thank you for your most informative post! Definitely learned something from this.

 

[TIGER0822]

Dbm

 

[emigrate]

dbm

 

[MassGuy]

Did the sheriff change his mind or did Savannah ignore his advice this time ?

Apparently law enforcement changed their recommendation. My guess would be the FBI.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2026430416337645780

 

[SlimPickens]

I don't know, if he is the person who abducted her, if he were smarter I think she'd be alive.

I realize these are a lot of "ifs" and conditions packed into my above paragraph, but IMO clearly she's deceased, with this much time with no progress, because it's a hell of a lot easier to control a dead body than it is a live person, even a partially mobility limited 84 year old; and unless he's playing Russian roulette with the ransom I don't know why he wouldn't already have felt inducement enough to return her.

Once this stops being a mystery it's going to be a sad sad sordid story.

JMOpinion only.

Agree if his intention was to kidnap for ransom. It's starting to look as likely that it could be a sick sadist, so that's where my headspace is (today at least). Have to rule everything out for sure.

JMO.

 

[Chypre]

I don’t care how prepared somebody is, when LE said they had DNA in the house that they were testing, whether it was true or a clever bluff, the perp had to have been stressed and on his toes ready to bail. If he’s sitting on his couch with no care in the world, that’s one hell of a call.

I think this guy was petrified when LE said they had unknown DNA. If nobody saw a change in demeanor, this guy is probably a loner with a seasonal job of some sort that allows him to be undetected.

MOO

And really, in the beginning law enforcement asked for tips stressing that point. Changes in behavior, demeanor

 

[TIGER0822]

And really, in the beginning law enforcement asked for tips stressing that point. Changes in behavior, demeanor

I had a major worry on my mind, but dropped it at work and went through the motions of acting normal.

 

[EncyclopediaBrownJr]

At what point do you hire the country’s best retired homicide detective if you’re the Guthries?

Like The Homicide Hunter, Joe Kenda?

 

[SMK777]

I had a major worry on my mind, but dropped it at work and went through the motions of acting normal.

And no one seemed to see any such signs in Richard Allen for 5+ years.

 

[SMK777]

<modsnip: Quoted post was removed>

FBI said 5'9-10" male with average build.

 

[EncyclopediaBrownJr]

And really, in the beginning law enforcement asked for tips stressing that point. Changes in behavior, demeanor

If this guy is sitting on his couch with a bucket of popcorn, feet propped up watching Netflix after LE said they are testing DNA, boy I’d hate to play poker against that guy.

 

[Soccer Hooligan]

His mother may be an enabler. She knows what is going on but turns a blind eye to it. However, she may not support him financially outside of providing room and board.
As for dealing, yeah you can make good money, but if you’re using and abusing, it will eat up those profits.
Drug addled minds do not think clearly. If he had inside info from his drug addicted gf, it might have seemed a simple job. How much trouble could an 84 year old be? The possibility of making millions of bucks might seem like manna from heaven.

I agree. And sometimes people who are high on drugs make brilliant plans (in their mind). And convince others it’s a great idea.
BUT — what the heck put LD on their radar? Why raid him? They can only hold a person for so long so I hope they are crossing the t’s and dotting the i’s.