Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[thefragile7393]

Just a comment on the Dr Phil reference in this podcast. "Dr' Phil is not affiliated with any professional psychological org, and hasn't been for many years, and I take what he offers with a grain of salt.moo

He still has the training though and IMO could have some interesting insights. You're not wrong though, as a professional I wouldn't but as a layperson knowing his training I could consider it IMO

 

[Katrinepa]

I believe the camera did disconnect at 01:47 as reported, perhaps due to a WiFi jammer being used. However, the Nest doorbell cam will record to an internal buffer and upload the video when connection is reestablished. So, my guess is that the camera wasn't connected at 02:12 but it did record. Sometime later, it reconnected, uploading the video.

The Nest camera was not connected to any service. FBI was able still to get some shots from it, but no paid connection. Not my knowledge, but just repeating what has already been posted a number of times.

 

[FaviousM]

I'll put this out there. A couple other people and I measured the suspect's shadow in the video footage and used the ratio of suspect height to shadow length to determine the time. All three times - calculated independently - averaged to just about 02:12 on the dot (times ranged from 02:06 to 02:20).

If the calculations are correct, even roughly, the video footage is from 02:12 (or thereabouts) and not 01:47. The caveat here is the calculation is very rough, but it definitely pointed more toward the 02:12 time than the 01:47 time. I did try to get more people to test this out themselves, but I only got two volunteers.

Sorry to come back to this but it had me curious.

When I look at the video footage, when the perp steps out to pick up the Lantana or when he walks into the porch with his head down, the shadows to me at least, appear to be parallel to the edge of the porch which lines up with around 1:47am on mooncalc (MoonCalc moon position- and moon phases calculator)

However, I would argue that the shadow angle isn't defined enough to really tell the difference between about 1:40 and 2:15 that night

Unless you were using a different shadow to work this out

 

[Katrinepa]

The Nest camera was not connected to any service. FBI was able still to get some shots from it, but no paid connection. Not my knowledge, but just repeating what has already been posted a number of times.

Nancy's Pacemaker is what disconnected.

 

[No it's not]

The Nest camera was not connected to any service. FBI was able still to get some shots from it, but no paid connection. Not my knowledge, but just repeating what has already been posted a number of times.

Correct.

Investigators wrangled video from Nancy Guthrie’s Google Nest camera out of ‘backend systems’

It’s not yet clear how the FBI collected the video. Experts said in some cases it’s possible to collect data from the complex infrastructure that has enabled cloud-based cameras.

www.nbcnews.com

-Nin

 

[FaviousM]

Nancy's Pacemaker is what disconnected.

The camera was connected to WiFi though, I'm pretty that's what is meant when they say the camera disconnected. Not that it disconnected from the Nest cloud service which NG didn't have a subscription for

 

[Auntie Cipation]

The Nest camera was not connected to any service. FBI was able still to get some shots from it, but no paid connection. Not my knowledge, but just repeating what has already been posted a number of times.

I believe it was described that while NG didn't have a paid subscription for the cameras, the data does indeed upload to Google servers, it just isn't available to her and it probably isn't generally saved for long. But at a minimum the rolling three-hour window that she could access was on the cloud servers -- which is how Google was able to extract it for LE. At least this is my understanding of how it worked. MOO

 

[joe jones]

The only possibility for the notes to be related is if they had intended to show proof of life, but she unexpectedly died and they had to abandon the ransom idea.

well they must be the stupidest kidnappers of all kidnappers, it is so illogical to think anybody would kidnap an 84 year old woman in poor health, as this would have been a concern, your victim has to stay alive for you to get the money, so again IMO she wasn't kidnapped,

 

[OldPueblo]

what if he had no idea who lived there, I have seen too many terrifying creeper videos from that area, lots of men seem to be wandering around in the middle of the night, trespassing onto property, trying doors, looking for stuff to steal, NG house was ideal for a creeper burglar, set back from the road, not overlooked, plenty of trees, foliage and bushes to hide in, and her house does look wealthy, its huge, so the burglary/assault/murder theory has always fit better than the taking of an 84 year old woman in poor health, having to keep her well and alive for however long ransom negotiations went on for, plus it would help if you actually worked out how to ransom her before taking her,

To be fair, a lot of the creeper videos that have circulated came from higher-crime areas of town where they aren't that surprising ... for example, nearer the university where there's a lot of theft. As a local, I'm under the impression there's much less of that sort of activity in NG's neighborhood up in the Catalina foothills, where neighbors have talked about feeling safe, some not even locking their doors (until now). Not saying it never happens, though, or that it couldn't have been what happened here. IMO.

 

[SaraSmile]

To point one the underlying premise is that he is an unsophisticated low IQ criminal/associate. He doesn't think like you or me, or other people. In many cases I have seen you get tweakers doing unnecessary and overly-convoluted poor choices that dig them in a deeper hole, for instance. I have said that I think his entire "mentality" in his get up more or less exhibits that. Also it was just a suggestion, as I also mentioned that he could have roughed her up on blood thinners and killed her inadvertently that way or in many other scenarios. I am also not discounting other activity that may have been done to her in such a scenario that would make the criminal think he needs to get rid of the body (SA, DNA transfer, etc.).

As for your second point we don't know any of that, but sure, maybe.. This case being so high profile along with the President's personal attention can warrant the feds (who have still not take official point on this case, and the president himself has discussed this). It is still officially just a missing person's case and had it not been SG's mom and played out in the media I think we could all agree it would get very different resources/attention.

Agree, I thought it was over the top to send 400 FBI agents. There are so many other cases to investigate, too! So the large number of agents, without a quick ID of the Perp, IMO, was a little embarrassing, if it was solved quickly, ok.Yes, IMO, the large force was because of SG and DJT.

I stand with all FBI and law enforcement, tough jobs they do. I’m glad they have scaled back, are working on videos and leads at the Phoenix office. I think it will be solved in the near future, taking longer than most expected.
JMO

 

[warp3dwing]

Sorry to come back to this but it had me curious.

When I look at the video footage, when the perp steps out to pick up the Lantana or when he walks into the porch with his head down, the shadows to me at least, appear to be parallel to the edge of the porch which lines up with around 1:47am on mooncalc (MoonCalc moon position- and moon phases calculator)

However, I would argue that the shadow angle isn't defined enough to really tell the difference between about 1:40 and 2:15 that night

Unless you were using a different shadow to work this out

I didn’t measure the angle directly because it’s impossible to do from the camera’s perspective.

What I did was create use the ratio of suspect height to the length of the shadow he creates.

You can see the methodology in this post.

I’m happy to be proved wrong!

 

[VTHOMM]

The way the reward is set up leaves room for the perp to tell where Nancy can be found. The reward is solely for recovery of NG.

They're certainly not going to do that if she has their DNA on here - which Im sure she does.

 

[SlimPickens]

1.1 isn't that life changing in 2026 especially after giving the govt their share. It should have been higher from day one and it would have been had it been me.

Most local criminals like burglars and murderers aren't financially stable and tend to come from the lower socioeconomic spectrum. Crime, in their judgment, tends to be a means to get ahead, and absent the typical rearing and comforts of the more middle to higher socioeconomic statuses, and with parents who tend to instill more effective life planning and judgments into their offspring, may even be the only way that they see themselves getting ahead.

Most local violent criminals like home invaders and burglars also have a pathological component (ie sociopathy/psychopathy) that is typically genetic, which suggests that violent criminal mindsets tend to breed violent criminal mindsets. Sometimes, as (perhaps) in the case of LD, an upper middle class couple's adoption of someone with these characteristics can take place, and no amount of love, compassion, empathy building, authoritative parenting, or psychological training can change the outcome. Sure, there may be infrequent anecdotes of success to the contrary in this regard, but it's typically a sad and oft-inconvenient truth. But a truth nonetheless.

The overall point is that the biological parents/family unit of typical local violent criminals would probably have similar financial issues, impulses, and even judgments. And 1.1 million dollars - while to you and I may not be that much to tempt us or complement our lifestyles/life plan - would be life changing to folks who've likely been dealt some of life's toughest hands.

In that vein, that's why I don't think we're dealing with local yokels or folks motivated by impulse and/or money.

ETA - I should add a qualifier so that what I wrote isn't misconstrued. I don't mean that all folks from a lower socioeconomic spectrum become criminals, had a bad/poor upbringing and/or their parents were without good morals or judgment, or are remotely tempted by the lifestyle. I grew up poorer than most but with loving parents who, even though were dealt with a tough hand in life, still instilled values in me that were moral, ethical, and patient/planning-centric. I only mean criminals that lead a criminal lifestyle tend to come from a lower economic background, and with family and peer groups that tend to hold similar moral judgments and impulses.

JMO.

 

[warp3dwing]

The Nest camera was not connected to any service. FBI was able still to get some shots from it, but no paid connection. Not my knowledge, but just repeating what has already been posted a number of times.

It was connected to her Wi-Fi network. That’s what it disconnected from. It also was connected to Nest servers through the internet, evidently! That’s how they got the footage.

 

[OldPueblo]

It makes me pretty sad to see media gone from Nancy's house and on to whatever the next 'story' is. Genuinely thought this case would be solved pretty quickly. I can only imagine how the family feels.

Hopefully they're not gone from the case ... just gone from Nancy's house. We had crazy record-breaking high temperatures predicted for Tucson this weekend, so combine that with media having to park farther away and hoof it to the house, they may have scurried off to somewhere else. IMO.

 

[submarine7]

They're certainly not going to do that if she has their DNA on here - which Im sure she does.

True, but perhaps no DNA or more likely, if there were multiple perps and one did not handle her.

 

[SMK777]

Most local criminals like burglars and murderers aren't financially stable and tend to come from the lower socioeconomic spectrum. Crime, in their judgment, tends to be a means to get ahead, and absent the typical rearing and comforts of the more middle to higher socioeconomic statuses, and with parents who tend to instill more effective life planning and judgments into their offspring, may even be the only way that they see themselves getting ahead.

Most local violent criminals like home invaders and burglars also have a pathological component (ie sociopathy/psychopathy) that is typically genetic, which suggests that violent criminal mindsets tend to breed violent criminal mindsets. Sometimes, as (perhaps) in the case of LD, an upper middle class couple's adoption of someone with these characteristics can take place, and no amount of love, compassion, empathy building, authoritative parenting, or psychological training can change the outcome. Sure, there may be infrequent anecdotes of success to the contrary in this regard, but it's typically a sad and oft-inconvenient truth. But a truth nonetheless.

The overall point is that the biological parents of typical local violent criminals would probably have similar financial issues, impulses, and even judgments. And 1.1 million dollars - while to you and I may not be that much to tempt us or complement our lifestyles/life plan - would be life changing to folks who've likely been dealt some of life's toughest hands.

In that vein, that's why I don't think we're dealing with local yokels or folks motivated by impulse and/or money.

JMO.

That may be true. The reason why no one is ratting out a family member or close ally to receive the reward, may be because the typology is different.

 

[submarine7]

Most local criminals like burglars and murderers aren't financially stable and tend to come from the lower socioeconomic spectrum. Crime, in their judgment, tends to be a means to get ahead, and absent the typical rearing and comforts of the more middle to higher socioeconomic statuses, and with parents who tend to instill more effective life planning and judgments into their offspring, may even be the only way that they see themselves getting ahead.

Most local violent criminals like home invaders and burglars also have a pathological component (ie sociopathy/psychopathy) that is typically genetic, which suggests that violent criminal mindsets tend to breed violent criminal mindsets. Sometimes, as (perhaps) in the case of LD, an upper middle class couple's adoption of someone with these characteristics can take place, and no amount of love, compassion, empathy building, authoritative parenting, or psychological training can change the outcome. Sure, there may be infrequent anecdotes of success to the contrary in this regard, but it's typically a sad and oft-inconvenient truth. But a truth nonetheless.

The overall point is that the biological parents/family unit of typical local violent criminals would probably have similar financial issues, impulses, and even judgments. And 1.1 million dollars - while to you and I may not be that much to tempt us or complement our lifestyles/life plan - would be life changing to folks who've likely been dealt some of life's toughest hands.

In that vein, that's why I don't think we're dealing with local yokels or folks motivated by impulse and/or money.

JMO.

I wondered that about LD. That's interesting.

 

[OldPueblo]

MOO I miss this thread being the only place where NG is discussed, now feel like I’m missing half of the updates. MOO, was just easier refreshing this one page and jumping to the most recent comment rather than bouncing around looking. But that’s just me

I think the idea is that some of the discussion of specific evidence and theories that go back to topics that have been discussed at length since early in the case could migrate to the new subthreads ... which would make it easier not to miss important new information, breaking news, and fresh discussion here. IMO.

 

[submarine7]

I think the idea is that some of the discussion of specific evidence and theories that go back to topics that have been discussed at length since early in the case could migrate to the new subthreads ... which would make it easier not to miss important new information, breaking news, and fresh discussion here. IMO.

I'm always curious about what locals think. Do you have any theories? I see you think burglary less likely.