Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[Ghostwheel]

I can appreciate the difference in perspective and even the good intentions of disclosing that information, but from a kidnapper's viewpoint an elderly lady who needs medication to survive and has a potentially trackable device implanted into her chest becomes a real liability real fast. And an existential threat to the criminal(s) freedom.


JMO.

I look at it a little differently.. Do you think anyone taking NG would not realize how old and frail she is, and would not assume she was on at least some kind of medication like so many frail and elderly are? (Not all, granted, but more than not). Is it logical to assume someone takes an elderly person thinking "They'll be just fine", but then panics when he finds out that at 84, she needs medication and has a pacemaker? I'm not saying it's outside the realm of possibility, but that takes "smart" out of the equation, imo.

I do think that the disclosure that she needed medication and had a pacemaker was partially a bid for proof of life. As in "Look, you took a person who may die soon without medication. Since your deadline is days after she would likely die, how do we know you have a live person?" And almost "Do you even WANT to keep her alive?" It was an attempt to speed things up, imo.

 

[SaraSmile]

By February 2, Sheriff Panos had stated that home was a crime scene and that homicide detectives had been called in.

'TODAY' Anchor Savannah Guthrie’s Mom Missing

Authorities in Arizona are searching for Nancy Guthrie, the mother of 'TODAY' anchor Savannah Guthrie, who was reported missing under what authorities are calling concerning circumstances.

www.tmz.com

He has not confirmed the place of entry. Do they know? I believe they do know. They have to hold some things back to weed out false confessors.
They have said that nothing appeared to be stolen and the house was not ransacked. What made it a crime scene as opposed to an elderly person who had wandered from home? Probably the blood inside, probably in or around her bed. Savannah Guthrie in a recent video made a statement insinuating she was taken from her bed, but the Sheriff later walked that back saying they know she went to bed. This may be another fact that the FBI did not want released. This tells us though, that her bed looked as if it had been slept in. What else? Was there bedding missing or bloodstained? Was there a trail of blood from the bedroom?

https://people.com/sheriff-believes-nancy-guthrie-went-to-bed-before-she-was-abducted-overnight-11901657

Were there drag marks?
We know virtually nothing about the inside of the home except unidentified DNA was found inside.
None of us know the intent of this crime. We have all floated our own theories or rehashed analysis provided by talking heads and self proclaimed experts.
I think it was a preplanned abduction on a vulnerable senior who lived in a million dollar home. Did they know she was the mother of a celebrity? Did they ever dream this crime would receive the public attention that it has? Did they think the Bitcoin ransom was infallible/untraceable but realized it wasn’t and feared capture.

Thanks for mentioning about “ taken from bed”. I think it was mentioned early on by Nanos, then walked back. SG said she was “taken from bed” in recent video. Considering she got home at 9:45 or so, it’s common sense that she would be asleep in bed at 2:00 AM. Probably 95% of seniors her age are sleeping at 2 AM.
I understand that some people think she may have heard someone, heard a camera alert, intruder rang doorbell or knocked, she went to the bathroom, she something to eat in kitchen, many other ideas.
In my mind, she did not wake up until someone came into her bedroom at 2:00 AM, got her out of bed. 2:00 AM is really when most people, especially seniors are sleeping, so being woken in bed is the most likely, IMO.
JMO

 

[FaviousM]

I didn’t measure the angle directly because it’s impossible to do from the camera’s perspective.

What I did was create use the ratio of suspect height to the length of the shadow he creates.

You can see the methodology in this post.

I’m happy to be proved wrong!

You know what, I've come around. I think you're right.

Even if the measurement is off by a couple of inches either way, it's not enough to account for the shadow length difference and what I hadn't noticed before, as I was too focused on the perp's shadow, is that you can see approx shadow angle on the floor of the porch which much more closely lines up with a time after 2am

So that would mean that the motion it detected at 2:12 was actually when the camera briefly reconnected to WiFi? But surely LE would be able to tell it connected after 1:47am

Now I'm even more confused

 

[SMK777]

MOO I miss this thread being the only place where NG is discussed, now feel like I’m missing half of the updates. MOO, was just easier refreshing this one page and jumping to the most recent comment rather than bouncing around looking. But that’s just me

Same.

 

[SMK777]

well they must be the stupidest kidnappers of all kidnappers, it is so illogical to think anybody would kidnap an 84 year old woman in poor health, as this would have been a concern, your victim has to stay alive for you to get the money, so again IMO she wasn't kidnapped,

True.
But how can it be mere coincidence that of all the homes in the neighborhood, the one which at least appeared to be targeted for a kidnapping was the home of the mother of a famous and wealthy news celebrity?

 

[Ghostwheel]

.RSBM
I think it was a preplanned abduction on a vulnerable senior who lived in a million dollar home. Did they know she was the mother of a celebrity? Did they ever dream this crime would receive the public attention that it has? Did they think the Bitcoin ransom was infallible/untraceable but realized it wasn’t and feared capture.

If I follow what you are saying, you believe that someone asked for a 6 million dollar ransom for a person who lives in a million dollar home, that wasn't a million dollars when she purchased it? That would not make sense to me. Unless someone had knowledge of her finances and/or her family, 6 million is rather out of most people's budget, million dollar home or no, imo.

So to me, whoever asked for ransom knew who NG was. But that might not be who took her. Those ransom notes are such a sticky wicket.

 

[OldPueblo]

I'm always curious about what locals think. Do you have any theories? I see you think burglary less likely.

This is such a strange case that I imagine 10 different locals might still have 10 different theories. I haven't really wanted to speculate so much as anxiously await significant new leads. It feels so close to home that I'm much more emotionally invested in the outcome for the family than in what actually happened. I could say there are things I've hoped this *isn't* for the sake of Savannah and her family, but then none of the options seem much better at this point. JMO

 

[SherryLock]

A few random and inexpert thoughts here FWIW:

First, I've seen several mentions on these threads of the perp/s in this case not being very smart. That surprises me, since they've apparently been smart enough to not be caught yet, four weeks later, even with heavy involvement by LE, FBI and etc.

However, does anyone else suspect that LE does already know, or at least has a very good idea of, who did it? I wouldn't be surprised if they're just waiting to see if they can get stronger evidence (such as a body) before making any arrests.

I've also wondered how much they've been able to discover from the door camera. We know they can closely estimate the height of the individual on the doorstep, but what about additional identifying markers, such as shoe size and even the distance between the person's eyes? If they've been able to closely estimate a few more measurements along with the height of that individual, it seems that could be extremely useful.

I've also wondered if the whole kidnapping/ransom thing is just a big, loud, deliberate red herring, with the perp/s really being motivated by money in a different way. For ex. someone who is included in NG's will or at least believes they are included in NG's will. Someone who is in deep trouble financially, such as with an addiction to fund or needing to cover money they embezzled from their job or something along those lines. I know that's just one possibility, though.

Also, I wouldn't expect anyone to have really been cleared or ruled out, regardless of what's been stated. How can anyone be ruled out before they know who did it? For ex. even if someone has an airtight alibi, it doesn't mean they couldn't have hired someone else to do it. And even if someone doesn't seem to have any logical motive, it doesn't mean they couldn't have a personal or delusional motive. Etc. Anyway, I'd guess that saying anyone has been cleared is just something the authorities might announce to stop individuals from being publicly harassed or to keep individuals cooperating with them rather than shutting down.

All MOO

 

[Trino]

I’m of the opinion that the suspect video, and later the removal of the camera itself at some point, happened before the suspect entered the house. If it had been a burglary and the suspect was able to enter through the back undetected, why bother with the Nest cam at all?

I’m not aware of any large valuables in the house that would require a shorter path to a vehicle. His backpack was a measly 25L.

Had he already been inside and accidentally killed Nancy, wouldn’t he open the front door from the inside and grab the camera without appearing on video? Instead, he comes around from the side and walks right up to it. He doesn’t seem rushed or particularly flustered, and he doesn’t appear to have any blood stains. We get a VERY good look at the fabric of his jacket, too.

I think he had the whole scene prepped and staged, then grabbed Nancy and left in just a few minutes.

 

[wibbleflea]

The overall point is that the biological parents/family unit of typical local violent criminals would probably have similar financial issues, impulses, and even judgments. And 1.1 million dollars - while to you and I may not be that much to tempt us or complement our lifestyles/life plan - would be life changing to folks who've likely been dealt some of life's toughest hands.

In that vein, that's why I don't think we're dealing with local yokels or folks motivated by impulse and/or money.

You’re suggesting a group of perps, ideologically bound in a way that makes the reward irrelevant. Definitely possible.

And you’re saying that family/friends of a typical, low-level career criminal are more likely to go for a reward than are members of this type of group. True, I think.

Also possible: that we’re dealing with a sole perpetrator who has shared his knowledge of the crime with no one.

I’m guessing that McKee (Ohio murders) and Cláudio Valente (Brown/MIT murders) both worked alone. And both were driven by personal motives, to varying degrees.

Speaking of similar loners: Mangione was identified in person at McDonald’s from photographs but, as far as I can remember, friends and family (he had both) hadn’t publicly come forward the moment those photographs were released, before his arrest, to provide his name. The photographs of him from the cab rides were more revealing than the video we have of NG’s abductor. They weren’t perfect but were much less ambiguous (edit: less ambiguous than what we have in NG’s case).

It’s a reminder of how hard it is for people to come forward and identify a wholly unexpected perp based on photo and video of a crime that would seem unimaginable for him.

The identity of NG’s perp may be similarly unthinkable to people who know him. They (including NG’s family) may watch the doorbell video without his name crossing their minds.

 

[SaraSmile]

I look at it a little differently.. Do you think anyone taking NG would not realize how old and frail she is, and would not assume she was on at least some kind of medication like so many frail and elderly are? (Not all, granted, but more than not). Is it logical to assume someone takes an elderly person thinking "They'll be just fine", but then panics when he finds out that at 84, she needs medication and has a pacemaker? I'm not saying it's outside the realm of possibility, but that takes "smart" out of the equation, imo.

I do think that the disclosure that she needed medication and had a pacemaker was partially a bid for proof of life. As in "Look, you took a person who may die soon without medication. Since your deadline is days after she would likely die, how do we know you have a live person?" And almost "Do you even WANT to keep her alive?" It was an attempt to speed things up, imo.

Yes, I got that impression, too! Savannah said that her Mother may die in a couple of days if she doesn’t have her meds, first video.

The reality is, IMO, the perps didn’t care if she needed meds. They were probably young, it did not occur to them, that she could easily die.

On the other hand, the reality is that she probably could live longer than 48 hours without medication, don’t know how long.

I know cold turkey from Neurontin can lead to seizures. Blood thinner or blood pressure pills, probably ok for a week or two, if no heart stress. Obviously, very stressful to NG. And she may have been roughed up badly during the abduction.

IMO, the blood we saw, obviously pointed to something bad happened ( Confirmed NGs blood), but the blood drops did not look life threatening to me.

Some thoughts on NGs meds and NG’s condition.

JMO

 

[joe jones]

True.
But how can it be mere coincidence that of all the homes in the neighborhood, the one which at least appeared to be targeted for a kidnapping was the home of the mother of a famous and wealthy news celebrity?

he just chose a random house, anybody could have lived there, he could have picked a house 2 streets away, or in a different town, unfortunately for this creeper he picked the house with a famous adjacent women in it and now has more LE and attention on him than he ever imagined IMO,
targeting NG seems less likely to me than randomly picking NG, and her house was an ideal house for a creeper, so sad that she lived there for so long and obviously felt very safe as there were no fencing or gates on front of property

 

[OldPueblo]

I still think it's fishy that LE seems to think there isn't any threat to the family or the public, but they don't seem very close to cracking the case.

I used to think that the lack of public warning meant that LE was close to an arrest and had a good idea of who the perp was and why they did it.

After a few weeks and false starts, I'm now more inclined to believe LE isn't really certain enough to be saying that there isn't a danger.

If this was targeting SG, the family should be locked down on top of SG's existing security. If it was for ransom, vulnerable people with money should be concerned. If it was random, the community needs to be on alert.

MOO

I think it's safe to say the community here is on alert.

 

[SlimPickens]

I look at it a little differently.. Do you think anyone taking NG would not realize how old and frail she is, and would not assume she was on at least some kind of medication like so many frail and elderly are? (Not all, granted, but more than not). Is it logical to assume someone takes an elderly person thinking "They'll be just fine", but then panics when he finds out that at 84, she needs medication and has a pacemaker? I'm not saying it's outside the realm of possibility, but that takes "smart" out of the equation, imo.

I do think that the disclosure that she needed medication and had a pacemaker was partially a bid for proof of life. As in "Look, you took a person who may die soon without medication. Since your deadline is days after she would likely die, how do we know you have a live person?" And almost "Do you even WANT to keep her alive?" It was an attempt to speed things up, imo.

True. I don't begrudge them for saying it. I'm just saying in retrospect it probably wasn't a good idea. I don't feel like the Sheriff would have disclosed this if he had considered that this was a kidnapping/ransom scenario from the onset. I think he felt he had to disclose it as a standard "silver alert" type of public broadcast. Intentions were good, instincts not so much.

If a kidnapper knows that his victim may have a device implanted into her that could very well lead to her location, and perhaps even quickly, then that knowledge becomes an immediate existential threat. And so does the victim.

And if a Sheriff broadcasts that she needs meds to survive and has a pacemaker, then I imagine a kidnapper was expecting someone to have the same sense of urgency in responding affirmatively to his financial demand, and within the time, manner, and conditions that he chose. And when they didn't, he probably cut and run.

JMO.

 

[Oldguy]

I can't decide on leaving a body at the scene.

On one hand, it's probably true that there is a risk of leaving one's DNA and evidence on the body. But the guy we saw on the camera (backpack boy) looked to me completely covered with no exposed skin or hair. If he hurt NG it would likely be her DNA on him I think.

But taking the body away is a whole other thing - moving it, putting it in a vehicle, disposing of it. And I'd venture to say not the typical thing to do.

Covered yes. But the two times I have held a flashlight in my mouth it was difficult to avoid losing saliva.
I seriously wonder if masked man didn’t leave some on the doormat.

 

[dogmom805]

Can we any post speculation/theories here, or does it have to be based on evidence, even if we state that it is opinion?

I have seen much speculation and many theories regarding the motive of the perp, for instance, and we know nothing. Ideas thrown about that the perp was a neighbor, obsessed or targeting SG, a drug addict, a worker at the home, a woman, transgender, a relative of a worker in the home, from the cartel, a random burglar, etc., wanted money, for sexual assault, thrill seeker, etc, and there is no evidence of any of the above.

Why would any speculation/theory be not allowed on this forum due to no evidence of it, if it is clearly stated as a "what if" opinion?

Asking for a friend...

 

[warp3dwing]

You know what, I've come around. I think you're right.

Even if the measurement is off by a couple of inches either way, it's not enough to account for the shadow length difference and what I hadn't noticed before, as I was too focused on the perp's shadow, is that you can see approx shadow angle on the floor of the porch which much more closely lines up with a time after 2am

So that would mean that the motion it detected at 2:12 was actually when the camera briefly reconnected to WiFi? But surely LE would be able to tell it connected after 1:47am

Now I'm even more confused

Thanks for trying it! Yeah, once you do it, you realize the numbers/visuals would have to be quite different to account for a pre-2am time.

When LE announced the disconnection and human detected times, they hadn’t recovered the footage yet. So, I think all the data they had was from Nancy’s phone. It’s possible that Nest only provides disconnection notices and not connection notices? I don’t know.

Or maybe LE has that info and are just not sharing it. I’d be surprised if there’s not a Nest App SQLite DB on her phone storing connection data.

 

[SaraSmile]

So if it was a single perp, I wonder if the sequence of events went something like this:

• Perp parks vehicle somewhere in the neighbourhood
• Perp walks to NG's house, gets there somewhere around 1:40am and scouts the place out until we see him at the front door at approx 1:47am
• Perp disables the camera
• Perp retrieves his vehicle and parks it out on the street, waits for a little bit to make sure there are no lights on etc as a result of him disabling the camera
• Perp enters the house by unknown means sometime around 2:12am when a camera detects a person
• Perp subdues NG by some means - threat with gun, ligatures etc
• Perp looks around the premises for whatever he was there for IF he wasn't solely there for NG
• Perp finally pulls vehicle up in front of the door
• Perp then leads NG out front door to vehicle
• Perp drives away with NG somewhere around 2:28am when NG's pacemaker disconnects

I think he would have parked elsewhere first for a few reasons:

• We don't see the car out front in the camera footage but the blood trail suggests it was parked in a spot the camera would have seen it when NG was removed from the house
• Even with its lights off, a car pulling into that gravel driveway in the middle of the night would potentially be loud enough to wake the occupant of the house
• The gap between 1:47am and 2:12am seems a bit too long to be skulking around outside the house IMO

Obviously, with multiple perps this sequence of events becomes much simpler and I'm basing this on the assumption the removal of NG was planned from the get-go

Thoughts? Was the vehicle already in the driveway off to the side at 1:47am?

No, car was parked in neighborhood until one perp walkie-talkie instructed car person to bring car. One of the perps brought the car near the front at 2:20 or so. All loaded into car, 2:28 they drive off, NGs pacemaker connection ends. Car seen (maybe if it’s the White kia) 2:36 on camera on Camino real, heading toward River Rd.
JMO

 

[SMK777]

he just chose a random house, anybody could have lived there, he could have picked a house 2 streets away, or in a different town, unfortunately for this creeper he picked the house with a famous adjacent women in it and now has more LE and attention on him than he ever imagined IMO,
targeting NG seems less likely to me than randomly picking NG, and her house was an ideal house for a creeper, so sad that she lived there for so long and obviously felt very safe as there were no fencing or gates on front of property

Okay, fair enough. Could be.
But didn't LE say she was targeted?

 

[al66pine]

.... If it was a single guy, the reasons for doing it could be anything from money to a dog told him to do it. It’d be rare to get backup for a reason like revenge, rape, or some psychotic delusion. IMO

Snipped & bolded by me. @warp3dwing Thx for your post.

Reasons? Has Son of Sam joined the convo?





For those who may be unfamiliar w NYC serial killer of six in the mid-1970's, David Berkowitz :
".... indicted for eight shootings. He confessed to all of them, and initially claimed to have been obeying the orders of a demon manifested in the form of a black dog "Sam" which belonged to his neighbor..,.."

David Berkowitz - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org