Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[Cats Against Crime]

Something I haven't seen mentioned anywhere: what if the kidnapper was already inside the house (or had already gained entry and unlocked several doors/windows and then left) when Nancy returned home?

This explains no forced entry, if that part is true. He could have discreetly gained entry while nobody was home (much safer for him) and prepped everything by unlocking doors or even windows for later. He could also have smashed the flood lights then. Nancy would be unlikely to go around and check every door/window lock before bed because they were locked before. This allows him to gain entry later once she is home and do it as quietly as possible. It only takes seconds to dial 911, so he cannot afford any type of alert.

Wouldn't be the first time a criminal did something like this. We think we know that porch guy was there casing the house at an earlier date. This could suggest that this type of planning is not unlikely.

Could also explain porch guy's seeming surprise at seeing the camera when he appears. Maybe be he was told via walkie talky to show up with the car and assumed criminal #1 would have taken care of the camera he mentioned from his earlier stakeout.

Could also explain his seeming awkwardness. Porch guy could be a low level getaway driver whose only jobs were to case the house and report, then show up when told, help carry her out, and above all keep his mouth shut.

Maybe "he's an amateur!" or "he seems like he is on drugs" is actually correct, because he was not the brains of the operation but a guy (likely with a long rap sheet already) who does these types of things for money and is known to show up and shut up after.

This could also explain no tips for the reward. Neither of these guys is talking in this scenario. It would have been made clear to porch guy in this case that silence would be best for his family's sake, for example.

 

[submarine7]

Agreed about the apparent level of preparation. If there’s obvious evidence of the perp’s hubris, it hasn’t been made public yet.

I wouldn’t want to eliminate the chance of a far-from-smart criminal having been unusually lucky, but the likelihood becomes lower with every passing day.

Never underestimate criminals with time on their hands. They can plan and they can think of every detail. That's where crimes originate.

 

[stmichael]

Maybe to throw people off and make LE think that he didn't know much about guns and was an amateur.

At the peril of his life? At the chance of it fumbling out easily if he had to run or react during the commission of a felony. At making the point of a holster difficult and using an actual draw disadvantageous? Why not just conceal it then as most do. Again, that's over-convoluted and just silly.

There were many poor/ odd decisions that spoke of a mindset that I keep bringing up in the assembly/use of that gear.

...and most criminals don't know much about guns, but use them. LD was arrested for possessing a firearm and had an AR pistol and I feel confident to say he doesn't know much about guns, other than in a poser-ish capacity. Not much you need to know if using them just for crime.

 

[FaviousM]

from the approximation of DNA protecting PPE but using a DNA transferring Bite light (c'mon!) I agree on this point for the most part but maybe he just over-engineered a solution to the light

a mismatched fumbling holster in a weird open carry He might just not be used to handling or carrying firearms

to a Walmart exclusive backpack with reflectors still on that glow in IR light!, It's a cheap backpack from a massive chain store

To the fumbling with the latanas? To not being prepared for a common doorbell cam (spray paint, small flat screwdriver, etc) Perhaps he over-prepared for the camera and used a jammer to disable it and was caught off guard by that method failing

to the over-convoluted loose nitrile gloves over other gloves that would render using the firearm cumbersome at best? Again maybe just unfamiliar/inexperienced with handling firearms and prioritised evidence prevention over the potential need to use the weapon

To the awkward rough breaking of the spotlight What are you expecting someone to do? Spend time removing it with a screwdriver?

and other details we know of. What other details?

Just some potential alternative explanations to what you consider evidence of them being a low-level criminal like LD

Though I doubt you'll be open to any of them

 

[UsernameRequired]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2028532858768564590

 

[dotr]

Have authorities indicated what race the perp most likely belongs to, it seem as though many consider him to be Latin/Hispanic?
Is this true? speculation, imo.

 

[Aquabot13]

God those videos of the family visiting the home are devastating. It's almost unbelievable that they have the strength to continue life like this. I can't imagine getting up and putting on jeans and going to my missing mother's home to be photographed at her memorial.

I hope SG has all the support she needs. I know her husband has been with the kids, which is smart, but it must be extra hard for her to be dealing with this away from her immediate family, especially when it's still unknown if she or they could be targets.

This is such a sick freak for doing this to an innocent elderly woman and her family. I'm hoping the ransom was truly unrelated and there are no plans of escalation. I just don't see how the family can truly move on (to the degree possible after a horrible event) when there are so many open questions and their mother could still be out there alive.

MOO

 

[FaviousM]

Have authorities indicated what race the perp belongs to, it seem as though many consider him to be Latin/Hispanic?
Is this true? speculation, imo.

I don't think LE have said anything about the perp beyond their potential height (5' 9 to 5' 10) and them speaking about the perp as if it's a male

 

[Sakura2Sophia4Lucia]

I've read your posts repeating this statement and that's where we respectfully disagree (as do a lot of interviewed ex FBI and LEOs who have called the Nest guy "amateurish" and "bumbling".)

Ever since I've seen the footage of the Nest cam I've pointed out my take on the over-convoluted "lost in translation" gear-up and methodology of "Latanas masked man".

I've written in detail posts in this long thread on it.....from the approximation of DNA protecting PPE but using a DNA transferring Bite light (c'mon!) to a mismatched fumbling holster in a weird open carry, to a Walmart exclusive backpack with reflectors still on that glow in IR light!, To the fumbling with the latanas? To not being prepared for a common doorbell cam (spray paint, small flat screwdriver, etc) to the over-convoluted loose nitrile gloves over other gloves that would render using the firearm cumbersome at best? To the awkward rough breaking of the spotlight, and other details we know of.

This is more Breaking Bad level Jesse Pinkman tries to rob/kidnap someone that a "meticulous and thorough" to me, which actually jives with LD's history/mentality quite well.


(but again I have to disclaimer that I don't think it is def. LD, but he has a lot of interesting circumstantial connections we do know of).

I do agree with you about him using him seeming to display some incompetence and lack of planning in some of his choices: the bite light, the cheap holster and wierd open carry, not being prepared to cover the nest cam with spray paint or having a screwdriver in his pocket to take the nest cam off, the bizarre glove situation where it didn't seem possible to be able to use the gun or anything else requiring some dexterity, the list goes on.

And, because of all of those things, I initially thought he was bumbling, seemingly incompetent amateur and thought something seemed off-kilter with him.

In the last few weeks, though, I started thinking that he had spent a great deal of time planning this crime. The video was released of him being at the house prior to the crime and seeming to test NG's security system with the nest cam to possibly see if the police would be called. Then, the time lag between when he was initially on the porch and when movement was detected at 2:13 am suggested that he may have planned to go up to the nest cam and then wait in the bushes or somewhere to see if the nest cam alerted the police or NG. His masking seemed to be multiple layers and, if so, he masked his facial features fairly well. I inially didn't think that he had paid attention to it being a full moon but after somebody commented on how he'd be so much better able to see the area where he dropped NG off, that made sense to me and I was impressed that he thought about the moon. He had something in his pocket that I thought might be a walkie talkie but it also could have been a Wifi spammer, police scanner or something else that he had thought would be useful. He clearly left his phone at home and didn't just turn it off. And the fact that he didn't appear to leave DNA in the house also made me think he had planned much more carefully than he initially appeared to have planned.

Anyhow, while I do agree with the things you mentioned that seemed to display his incompetence, I've started thinking about the above things I mentioned and that in order to get away with this crime thus far, he did a lot of careful planning.

JMO

 

[browneyes]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2028532858768564590

That is heartbreaking!

 

[SaraSmile]

View attachment 649563

I took a photo of this beautiful post at the banner last Tuesday and thought about sharing it here, given all the grimness of this case. Seems like a relevant moment in the conversation.

Thank You! The memories and quotes are really profound and heartfelt!

 

[Scorpiette]

I go back and forth between LD and DC. IMO DC's eyes and how he hid his right hand give me pause. Besides the mouth, what pushes you toward LD? I do hope they are watching these people closely.

The shape of LD's nose seems to fit, IMO. It's kind of long and tapering, a bit like a Puffin bird's beak?

 

[MesquiteO21]

Have authorities indicated what race the perp most likely belongs to, it seem as though many consider him to be Latin/Hispanic?
Is this true? speculation, imo.

i don't believe there has been any official word from them, it's only been us armchair sleuths surmising that

moo

 

[SlimPickens]

I am struck by the lack of unified community involvement in support for the Guthrie family. To my knowledge only one small church service way back when. SG was so very proud of Tucson her home town and yet where is the support? YT streamers have been the only organizers and those had no turnout from the community. I am really wondering if the average Tucson resident has. even heard of this kidnapping?

Which suggests the local Guthrie family probably isn't as well known or famous-by-proxy in the Tucson area that many of us have assumed. If so, this could change the way we consider potential suspects (and their origins/motives).

JMO.

 

[Sakura2Sophia4Lucia]

At the peril of his life? At the chance of it fumbling out easily if he had to run or react during the commission of a felony. At making the point of a holster difficult and using an actual draw disadvantageous? Why not just conceal it then as most do. Again, that's over-convoluted and just silly.

There were many poor/ odd decisions that spoke of a mindset that I keep bringing up in the assembly/use of that gear.

...and most criminals don't know much about guns, but use them. LD was arrested for possessing a firearm and had an AR pistol and I feel confident to say he doesn't know much about guns, other than in a poser-ish capacity. Not much you need to know if using them just for crime.

You make good points about the assembly and use of the holster and gun. JMO

 

[wibbleflea]

I've read your posts repeating this statement and that's where we respectfully disagree (as do a lot of interviewed ex FBI and LEOs who have called the Nest guy "amateurish" and "bumbling".)

Ever since I've seen the footage of the Nest cam I've pointed out my take on the over-convoluted "lost in translation" gear-up and methodology of "Latanas masked man".

I've written in detail posts in this long thread on it.....from the approximation of DNA protecting PPE but using a DNA transferring Bite light (c'mon!) to a mismatched fumbling holster in a weird open carry, to a Walmart exclusive backpack with reflectors still on that glow in IR light!, To the fumbling with the latanas? To not being prepared for a common doorbell cam (spray paint, small flat screwdriver, etc) to the over-convoluted loose nitrile gloves over other gloves that would render using the firearm cumbersome at best? To the awkward rough breaking of the spotlight, and other details we know of.

This is more Breaking Bad level Jesse Pinkman tries to rob/kidnap someone than a "meticulous and thorough way" to me, which actually jives with LD's history/mentality quite well.


(but again I have to disclaimer that I don't think it is def. LD, but he has a lot of interesting circumstantial connections we do know of).

What if the get-up successfully prevented DNA shedding (bite light under a second face mask, no prints); the few facial details we see, like the mouth and lips, were actually a mesh mask under the ski mask; the gun placement was purely designed to intimidate an 84yo woman?

And what if the lantana was there to stop glass piercing the gloves in case he broke the camera lens?

An excellent planner who wasn’t a seasoned criminal wouldn’t necessarily want to look like a professional – he’d just want to minimise risk. He seems to have done well. Things that haven’t yet led to an arrest: DNA, prints, vehicle ID, electronic trail, purchase records, someone known to him tipping off LE, someone known to the family suspecting him, evidence of NG’s location, someone recognising him from video footage. And, if he wrote the ransom notes, those haven’t led to an ID, either.

I don’t rule out luck. But this seems less like chance and more like the work of a very good thinker.

 

[arielilane]

Savannah Guthrie, her sister Annie, and her brother-in-law Tommaso visit the memorial outside Nancy's house just now.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2028527775653708080

 

[UsernameRequired]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2028536824646570128

 

[stmichael]

Just some potential alternative explanations to what you consider evidence of them being a low-level criminal like LD

Though I doubt you'll be open to any of them

Some of these responses are as over-convoluted and silly as Latanas man.

But, sure you can find a multitude of alternative options for every detail in this case. All of your points reinforce what I was saying: that this was not well planned or well thought out (and several of these points were also isolated by former FBI and LEOs for the same reason). For example I point out that he leaves a very indicating label on a backpack that is exclusive to one store (and one of the "leads" in this case) and chose a backpack with reflective strips that glare on everyone's IR cameras at night. A pro choice? Very easy to avoid this, so that's sloppy. The holster issue as well. He's not familiar with guns you say, so instead of tucking a Mexican carry like most inexperienced people would or just concealing on his person, he goes out and buys a large frame poly cheapo pistol holster for a small frame semi auto then tucks it in loosely so it can fall out, and he decides to open carry it on a belt loop front and center in some cumbersome approximation of an appendix carry??? Yeah, that's not over-convoluted. Much easier for an inexperience person to tuck it in their waistband or carry on their person. So, sure he may be inexperienced, but his mindset even as a "low level criminal" is overly convoluted or just stupid (and many of these choices indicates that).

 

[KivaloNyomozo’]

Savannah Guthrie lays flowers outside missing mother Nancy's home

The Today show host was seen in an emotional video placing flowers at the growing memorial for her missing mother Nancy on Monday.

mol.im