• #42,101
Well, Pima County is bordered by 6 Arizona counties: Cochise, Graham, Maricopa, Pinal, Santa Cruz, and Yuma. So AB could have been talking about any of those.

You are correct. Thank you. Yuma County PD does have a Bell 505 equipped with the G1000H NXi. I did not pay attention to it, because YC is so far West. However, I checked and cannot locate a feasible SAR pattern flown from YUM/KNYL or the Marine Corps Air Station Y.

ALL IMO

-Nin
 
  • #42,102
I have been finding the same thing looking for the jacket. Many many “almosts” but not he exact one. I hope he reads this and understands we are LOOKING for YOU.

Same. Due to the lining around the wrists, the chest line, and the zipper line, I am leaning towards the brand "Land's End".
 
  • #42,103
  • #42,104
If he was there PRIOR then he saw the camera and knew the camera was there. He went ONCE, saw the camera, went back to his car, suited up with his backpack etc and tried to dislodge it. That's the only thing that makes sense to me. jmo
Or he was there days or weeks before running a dress rehersal; checking to see if she was getting alerts from her camera, if she would wake up and start turning on lights, and whether anyone was going to call 911. I think it might have been Old Cop who speculated he deliberately stood in front of the camera to look threatening, in order to get a reaction. He could have easily blended back into the dark if it seemed like he'd been noticed, but apparently not. Perhaps on the night of the crime, he made one last check (where the camera detected someone but there is no video) to see if anyone had been paying attention when he had been there before and beefeed up security. So he gets close enough to trigger the camera or alarm, and steps back into the dark to wait. When nothing happens, the plan proceeds and she is gone within half an hour.
 
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  • #42,105
Completely different question..If one was to plan for a kidnapping, how long would it approximately take for target selection, reconnaissance/surveillance and planning? The planning would include the actual abduction, victim detention, ransom negotiations and victim release. What do you think? Just curious.

Cheers,
Nin
 
  • #42,106
Not a dumb question. Yes, that would disconnect the WiFi, at least it would with my WiFi. There may be some set-ups where it wouldn't work this way but it would disconnect my WiFi. JMOO
I have Ring, not Nest but I would think they are similar. When my WiFi goes out, only my alarm system is operational, not my doorbell camera. JMO
 
  • #42,107
I have Ring, not Nest but I would think they are similar. When my WiFi goes out, only my alarm system is operational, not my doorbell camera. JMO

We have a hard-wired camera system that isn't Ring or Nest, but when we lose internet we lose our camera signals - recording, alerts, etc. - gone, until WiFi is reconnected.
 
  • #42,108
IMO, on the backpack topic, anyone who bought the backpack at a Walmart will be on camera and will be well documented. And the video quality is quite good as well. The trouble is which backpack is "the" backpack. This could account for part of the "thousands of hours of video" they mention.

Whether it's a backpack or a candy bar, Walmart will know:

Where it was bought (which stores sold one)
When (date and time sold)
Which checkout aisle was used (which leads to which camera to pull video from the relevant time)
The cashier on duty (whether self checkout or not)
Whether cash or card was used to pay
If cash, amount paid and change given
Anything else included in the order

Video would not only show the person buying but also anyone with them, which is potentially significant. You could observe their body size, gait, mannerisms.

That said, there could be hundreds or even thousands of those backpacks sold in a given timeframe and geographic location. So someone from law enforcement has to watch every checkout video to see if someone they are interested in appears in it buying a backpack. If a card is used that gives a name right away, which can then be run down and checked to see if it leads anywhere.

Example: a group is seen. They buy a backpack. Pay with card. Law enforcement runs the name on the card. She's a kindergarten teacher, on video in the store with her husband and son, kid is in middle school. Unlikely to be either the perps or associated with them (and therefore not buying it for them). And you repeat again and again and again and again and again.

No BREAKING NEWS! No updates. No "activity." Just "boring" investigative work.

If cash is used then it's not a dead end. You have the video, first of all. You could always go talk to the cashier who was on duty if you find a potential video of interest. Does that guy come in often? Sometimes cashiers see the same regulars even if they do not interact with them. Maybe it helps, maybe not. Lots of things are crapshoots.

And if someone you already have your eye on as a suspect based on some other tip or evidentiary reason ALSO is seen buying a backpack AND with cash. It proves nothing. You cannot arrest or even likely raid them yet. But now you have a few "ands" that cause you to dig deeper. Literally, you have nothing actionable. You have no suspect in the official sense. But you think you are possibly onto something.

In this scenario the media claims "Investigators say they have no suspect." The case is going COLD!

No. It's just that these things take a lot of time and care, and resources are finite.

Yeah but what if someone bought the backpack for the perp?

Unlikely, and also not a dead end if it happened IMO. Here's why: that would mean someone else was involved to the point where they would go into Walmart and buy the backpack just so the future kidnapper wasn't seen on camera doing so. That is a LOT of care being taken.

Only someone fairly close to the perp would be trusted to do this, making them still potentially useful. If you see someone you have determined as being associated with your person of interest buying the backpack that is also useful. Plus, in the above scenario now you have a "shadow buyer" for a backpack who could talk for a million dollars. Especially if their only "crime" is buying a backpack for a friend/family member for whatever reason they might not even know for sure. Just unlikely, IMO.

One thing I think is certain: IF the kidnapper walked into a Walmart and bought that backpack, he was 100% on camera doing so. The trouble is knowing which purchase is "the" purchase. And casting a wide enough net. What if he went 5 states away to buy it? Or bought it a year ago AND several states away?

IMO we're in this phase, where investigators are working through potential evidence, which takes a long time.
Walmart turned over all their records on sales of the backpack in question 2 weeks ago. You are right, the sheriff's office has to go through all of them. That's the holdup and the problem. JMO

TUCSON, Ariz. — "Detectives hunting for Nancy Guthrie have been handed their most “promising” lead yet, a former top cop told The Post — after Walmart handed over purchase records that could finally help crack the case."

 
  • #42,109
  • #42,110
Completely different question..If one was to plan for a kidnapping, how long would it approximately take for target selection, reconnaissance/surveillance and planning? The planning would include the actual abduction, victim detention, ransom negotiations and victim release. What do you think? Just curious.

Cheers,
Nin
For the record I will never attempt a kidnapping for ransom or any other reason. But if I were to have those thoughts it would be a long game. All of the recon would be done at least a year or more ahead of time. Victim's location, home layout, habits etc. I'd be watching and gaining intel. Securing a location to harbor a victim, vehicle and stolen plates. A stack of cash for purchases, vpn for searches, burner phones and the like etc. But one thing I would never do is negotiate through the media and specifically TMZ. Family only with threat of no police contact.

I'd be caught like day 1. IMO/JMO
 
  • #42,111
Sorry if this is dumb question.

We’ve spoke about WiFi jammers, but if your cable provider also was your internet provider with router inside but box outside, if cable was cut outside wouldn’t that disconnect WiFi?
It would cut your internet connection, yes. Devices within the home could communicate with each other over Wi-Fi if the router still had power, but they wouldn’t communicate with the outside world.

If that camera footage is from 2:12 am or thereabouts, the camera reconnected to Wi-Fi and had a working connection by then. We know that because the footage wasn’t recovered from the home – it had made it all the way to Google’s servers. So a cut cable and a regular router wouldn’t explain the 1:47 am disconnection.

On the other hand, some routers have backup cellular connections, which can include 4G and 5G, and they will switch to that backup if the cable is physically cut. That could explain it. (In my experience, these backup connections have not been reliable, but presumably some of these things work at least some of the time.)

It would have been helpful if there had been a “doorbell camera reconnects” event in the original timeline, with a timestamp. I think they were just going by iOS app alerts, though.

Edited to add: programmers are a gloomy bunch, so they program apps to alert you when something bad happens. (My weather app never alerts me when the sun is about to shine for a few hours.)
 
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  • #42,112
Completely different question..If one was to plan for a kidnapping, how long would it approximately take for target selection, reconnaissance/surveillance and planning? The planning would include the actual abduction, victim detention, ransom negotiations and victim release. What do you think? Just curious.

Cheers,
Nin
IMO, all of this would take a lot less time if the perp was somehow already associated with NG. I really don't have my own theory, per se, about this but I do think it's VERY plausible that the perp is a contractor who flapped his gums to a friend about this "old lady" who has a "rich daughter." Another poster here first presented this theory and it seems the most logical scenario to me. What has ultimately happened to NG, though, is something I haven't yet noodled...
 
  • #42,113
As per STS, Annie's car is going home
Video linked up thread.
Edit to add it was PCSD announcement.
I think the visit from the family to the memorial means the family is stepping back into their normal lives. I noticed the brother wasn't with the family, he probably had to already go back. And AG & TC have a son that needs to be around friends and in school. Thus, they need their car. It's sad to try and pick up the pieces of their life again. JMO
 
  • #42,114
  • #42,115
It would cut your internet connection, yes. Devices within the home could communicate with each other over Wi-Fi if the router still had power, but they wouldn’t communicate with the outside world.

If that camera footage is from 2:12 am or thereabouts, the camera reconnected to Wi-Fi and had a working connection by then. We know that because the footage wasn’t recovered from the home – it had made it all the way to Google’s servers. So a cut cable and a regular router wouldn’t explain the 1:47 am disconnection.

On the other hand, some routers have backup cellular connections, which can include 4G and 5G, and they will switch to that backup if the cable is physically cut. That could explain it. (In my experience, these backup connections have not been reliable, but presumably some of these things work at least some of the time.)

It would have been helpful if there had been a “doorbell camera reconnects” event in the original timeline, with a timestamp. I think they were just going by iOS app alerts, though.
Thank you for that explanation. So the battery backup would not have been able to upload that for google to receive but would have possibly “talked” to another camera via the router if the router was powered up. Even further timestamps could be from phone if phone was allowing apps to use LTE? And if other cameras were wired, they would have been wired to power and no need for router.
 
  • #42,116
Thank you for that explanation. So the battery backup would not have been able to upload that for google to receive but would have possibly “talked” to another camera via the router if the router was powered up. Even further timestamps could be from phone if phone was allowing apps to use LTE? And if other cameras were wired, they would have been wired to power and no need for router.
DBM
 
  • #42,117
While the retired FBI profiler that BE interviewed in the below video had many interesting points, I especially noted 3 comments.

1. He thought that the video of the perpetrator makes it clear that he's an amateur.

2. He also thought that this perpetrator's DNA should be all over NG's house.

3. He noted that the perp had a small tattoo on the back of his wrist that can be seen in the video.

He details all of these thoughts, as well as many other insights, in his interview. Helpful observations, I thought.

JMO

 
  • #42,118
Full moon that night. A full moon in a dark neighborhood in Tucson provides an enormous amount of light. JMO
I am talking about the no backpack night. We don't know what night that is, however, but the background is way darker. Could have been same night and moon was in the different place at the time too, I suppose.
 
  • #42,119
While the retired FBI profiler that BE interviewed in the below video had many interesting points, I especially noted 3 comments.

1. He thought that the video of the perpetrator makes it clear that he's an amateur.

2. He also thought that this perpetrator's DNA should be all over NG's house.

3. He noted that the perp had a small tattoo on the back of his wrist that can be seen in the video.

He details all of these thoughts, as well as many other insights, in his interview. Helpful observations, I thought.

JMO

Great points. However, I think he’s arid that the tattoo is on the underside of the wrist.
 
  • #42,120
If that camera footage is from 2:12 am or thereabouts, the camera reconnected to Wi-Fi and had a working connection by then. We know that because the footage wasn’t recovered from the home – it had made it all the way to Google’s servers. So a cut cable and a regular router wouldn’t explain the 1:47 am disconnection.

It would cut your internet connection, yes. Devices within the home could communicate with each other over Wi-Fi if the router still had power, but they wouldn’t communicate with the outside world.

DBM.
Because I need you to explain this to me like I am 5. 🤣
 
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