Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[moonglow123]

I can't see LD being the person behind it. I was hopeful at the time, thinking maybe it was a chance abduction by local criminals, who'd be easily found out if they were investigated. I changed my mind before the interview, and am more certain now. It would have taken too much work for LD to have hidden everything from a SWAT team and an investigation involving the FBI. They'd have found something. It's someone else.

It isn't a random crime, and (speculation) was committed by someone who is, on the surface, a very unlikely abductor. I'm repeating myself with this point, but think of Luigi Mangione, who was identified by someone who didn't know him because photographs had been published of him in a cab, but not identified by friends and family. I think this situation is similar.

There is almost no chance that people who know the perp haven't seen the video footage, but the person they know is so unlikely a suspect that they may never think of it. If they do perhaps wonder about the visual match, they would think it's wrong to call him in, because of how absurd it seems. I think it's that kind of situation. (This post is turning into a repeat of this earlier one.)

Not a known criminal, not someone living at the margins. I think we'll only know the true motive after an arrest, but I think there's some personal connection. The family knows his name, but they don't suspect him. It's ultra-creepy.

Yep. This is where I’m at.

I was extremely certain about LD. He seemed to check every box. He resembles Lantana Guy. But two+ weeks and no arrest or evidence found has more or less deflated my hope.

LD doesn’t seem like a particularly sophisticated criminal that would be able to hide every indication that he did this.

I sadly now think they got a warrant on hopeful, but not necessarily accurate grounds. I think “we got a tip, this guy fits our profile, he’s a prolific criminal, he lives close by, his phone pinged around 1-2am, we really think he could’ve abducted Nancy and still have her” could’ve been enough to get the warrant. It sadly doesn’t mean they were right.

I am now leaning towards a truly random person that’s probably really pleased he’s gotten away with this for so long. Of course, I could be wrong. All MOO.

 

[stmichael]

I would assume a restaurant worker would simply dispose of his gloves in the restaurant trash bin, rather than littering out his car window.

But now that I think about it, during the worst of the COVID pandemic I was living in a condo complex, and food delivery and cleaning service people were wearing masks and gloves. When walking my dog at a pond on the property, I would find discarded masks and gloves, which was littering and also unsanitary considering the pandemic.

Restaurants have dumpsters behind them where all the interior trash goes (sometimes an alley) or in the parking lot . During dumpster pickup it could have fallen out and blown across the street--where it was found. Nanos himself said he thought it was likely from the restaurant before it was tested. These things are light as leaves when they dry out and can blow and travel.

“We knew that at that time, we believed wholeheartedly that those gloves belonged to a restaurant and guess what? The owner of the glove, we found working at a restaurant across the street.”

 

[Cassie P]

Which reason had a restaurant worker to dispose of his gloves somewhere outside the building? It doesn't make sense to me, unless he used the gloves outside. For what exactly, I wonder. MOO

Does it get windy in Tucson? During high wind where I live, all kinds of things are found blowing around. Trash cans fall over, trash lids get blown away, overflowing dumpsters, all produce flying items.

Also maybe restaurant worker starts throwing trash out his car window on the way home from work?

 

[TIGER0822]

I can't shake the feeling that the 'one bitcoin guy' was onto something. I do not believe that he saw NG alive in Mexico, I see that as a red herring. Was he involved? JMO.

 

[SaraSmile]

i worry now about pupil distance (as well as my "center of the eye" landmark, which i guess means the same thing), because the pupils and irises move around, and it strikes me as tricky to "eyeball" where the center of the eye is (pun intended) without using them. ... maybe this is why AI told me the inner corner of the eye is preferred.

Totally agree. In addition, we know that the federal warrant wouldn't have been approved by a judge unless there was persuasive and convincing evidence that LD could have been the perpetrator. I feel that the FBI and LE were doing their job and there is nothing to apologize for. While I don't necessarily believe LD is the perp, he hasn't been cleared by the FBI and LE and he still could be a suspect.

JMO

Ok, yes, you are right. The FBI and LE have to follow any leads they have. I’m just surprised about taking a SWAT Team for a home search, is that common?

We usually see SWAT when there’s a mass shooting, some hostages, people stuck inside of the school, can’t get out easily.

I was not aware they served search warrants like this, for a search of a property.

I get it, they thought maybe a slim chance NG was in there. I don’t think she’s in anyone’s nearby house, myself. But I do think the perp is very local.

If you know, Sakura, or anyone else, is this common to bring SWAT to a home search? In what cases do the Fed judges approve such a warrant?

JMO

 

[SherryLock]

It's also possible that we're giving Lantana Guy (or Gal) too much credit here. It's possible that Lantana Guy has already been identified and LE is just biding their time now, hoping a body shows up, for an easier conviction.

If LE assumes NG is no longer living, then there's no rush to try to save her anymore. And if LE made an arrest at this point, the defense could logically say, "How can you accuse my client of murder when you can't even prove that a murder occurred?"

Now I'm checking to see when the last raid, interrogation or confiscation was and watching to see if there are any more.

MOO

 

[Napoli]

Snipped by me for emphasis:

It reminds me of when police in Canada were looking for the Scarborough rapist and put out a sketch looking just like Paul Bernardo (who was later charged and convicted). His coworkers thought it looked just like him, but nobody tipped it in because the thought of him being the rapist was absurd to them. They believed it couldn't possibly be him.

Stalker. All the things I have said, educated, sensitive, well read, movie TV aficionado and he's good to his mother. Le isnt putting out a profile because it will generate even a bazillion more calls. Plus, no one wants to be the one to put an innocent, seemingly good boy, in the crosshairs of LE. JMO

 

[stmichael]

Ok, yes, you are right. The FBI and LE have to follow any leads they have. I’m just surprised about taking a SWAT Team for a home search, is that common?

We usually see SWAT when there’s a mass shooting, some hostages, people stuck inside of the school, can’t get out easily.

I was not aware they served search warrants like this, for a search of a property.

I get it, they thought maybe a slim chance NG was in there. I don’t think she’s in anyone’s nearby house, myself. But I do think the perp is very local.

If you know, Sakura, or anyone else, is this common to bring SWAT to a home search? In what cases do the Fed judges approve such a warrant?

JMO

Yes they do. I would say 85 percent of SWAT/SRT work is executing high risk search and arrest warrants, as well as no-knock warrant. with breaching.

In this case I think the high profile nature of the case and that LD was a known armed felon factored in to that.

 

[SherryLock]

Probably won't have an effect, but I found it interesting anyway. I guess you never know - maybe the perp has seen BE's updates and has been following along. Who knows

JMO but I would guess the perp follows everything about this case very closely. I can't imagine there would be anything more important than that in the perp's life or mind at this time.

MOO

 

[Napoli]

Ok, yes, you are right. The FBI and LE have to follow any leads they have. I’m just surprised about taking a SWAT Team for a home search, is that common?

We usually see SWAT when there’s a mass shooting, some hostages, people stuck inside of the school, can’t get out easily.

I was not aware they served search warrants like this, for a search of a property.

I get it, they thought maybe a slim chance NG was in there. I don’t think she’s in anyone’s nearby house, myself. But I do think the perp is very local.

If you know, Sakura, or anyone else, is this common to bring SWAT to a home search?

JMO

BBM. Hostage situation for sure. Suspicion of armed and dangerous for another. Might just be, when there's any doubt, bring SWAT out. i dunno. JMO

SWAT teams are deployed roughly 50,000 to 80,000 times per year in the United States, with some estimates suggesting over 100+ incidents daily nationwide, though frequency varies by department size. While designed for high-risk crises, about 80% of deployments are for serving search warrants, often for narcotics, rather than active hostage situations.

• Frequency Variations: Large metropolitan departments may deploy SWAT daily or multiple times a week. Small agency, part-time teams might only deploy a few dozen times per year, sometimes averaging only once a month.
• Primary Uses:
  • Search Warrants: The vast majority (approx. 80%) of SWAT activations.
  • • Barricaded Suspects: A major reason for tactical team involvement.
    • Hostage Situations/Active Shooters: High-risk, life-threatening scenarios.
  • Usage Trends: The use of SWAT has increased dramatically since the 1980s, expanding from rare, extreme incidents to routine service of warrants and, in some cases, to support local law enforcement in smaller matters.

 

[LRinCA]

Which reason had a restaurant worker to dispose of his gloves somewhere outside the building? It doesn't make sense to me, unless he used the gloves outside. For what exactly, I wonder. MOO

Maybe he or she wore them to carry the trash out to the dumpster at the end of the shift. Sadly, Arizona is the land of a million discarded gloves strewn along every highway. Moo.

 

[Napoli]

bbm
Are there professions, where a worker carries an important tool at the front of his belt?

Telephone or electrical linemen? Add to that carpenters, electricians, plumbers and HVAC people sometime. JMO

 

[SaraSmile]

Do you think their message will have the desired effect? I'm doubtful. Would love to know what the current FBI BAU people think. I'm guessing one or two are working the case. They have evidence that we don't have. Perhaps they'll release a public profile.

I wish! A profile would be great!

It may not serve them to release it yet. If they are onto someone, don’t tip off, they may clean up evidence.

Find the car, follow that lead. That is my next great hope.
JMO

 

[Margo Hughes]

Something I wonder about is if Lantana man did ring the doorbell, why wouldn't NG wake up and dial 911 instead of answering the door? She would know it was the middle of the night and surely panic rather than leap up to answer the door. I have always been told to dial 911 and not answer the door in the middle of the night. If the "visitor" did turn out to be someone legitimate, then no harm is done by calling police.
Also, surely she had a peep hole to look out, and if it was covered by anything, that fact would spell trouble! Sorry if this issue has been discussed previously but it is impossible at this point to keep up with all the posts.
All of these questions and comments are simply my speculation and my personal opinion.

 

[stmichael]

Something I wonder about is if Lantana man did ring the doorbell, why wouldn't NG wake up and dial 911 instead of answering the door? She would know it was the middle of the night and surely panic rather than leap up to answer the door. I have always been told to dial 911 and not answer the door in the middle of the night. If the "visitor" did turn out to be someone legitimate, then no harm is done by calling police.
Also, surely she had a peep hole to look out, and if it was covered by anything, that fact would spell trouble! Sorry if this issue has been discussed previously but it is impossible at this point to keep up with all the posts.
All of these questions and comments are simply my speculation and my personal opinion.

Indeed she had two decorative windows on either side of the door to see any visitor without the camera, from inside the house, provided the right angle. The feds were observed peeking out of them in that last walk-through before releasing the house back.

I caution people against those very common windows cause it takes one rock and 3 seconds to brake them, reach in, and flip open a single cylinder deadbolt (so breaching the front door was do-able, but there is no sign here of forced entry). Total residential style-over-substance. It also makes the welded security door here (which is a decent slow down against the common criminal) a bit pointless. I use double cylinder deadbolts (keyed on both sides) for this reason on side doors, etc. though it can be a hassle, sure.

Though I suppose if she was startled and did come to the door for some reason she would see a masked man with a gun hanging from his crotch and he could possibly intimidate and coerce her. Stranger things have happened.

 

[cherryleaf]

Considering that one guy bought his vehicle after Nancy's abduction, I would think that automatically rules him out as a suspect in this case, no matter how awkward he is on camera or what kind of sketchy activity he has done in the past.

The camera is infrared, so the color is not accurate. I had no idea how unreliable guessing color would be until someone here posted the brown plaid shirt that was washed out to white and pale gray, and the swirly blue tie dye shirt that had no markings at all. I think trying to guess something like eye color and skin tone of the perp based on that video would be no more reliable.
The haircut/facial hair style are popular. That both people who LE have detained and questioned look similar is more a factor of how common it is rather than how accurately they describe the guy on the porch. I imagine you could find about as many guys sporting that style at county lock up as at the local church services.

That said, the shape of the eyes that we can see in the video; I would say that's an identifying trait. JMHO

That’s absolutely valid. It may wind up being some red headed person with a peg leg and a glass eye from Alaska for all I know. I’m not attached to any theory or any person. I just noticed similarities in the raids. I’m not saying either is the perp just that they DO share a strong coincidental amount of similarities imo.

I brainstorm a lot about all of the theories though.

 

[Diddian]

Way back on Feb 18, a member posted the FBI-provided photos with "enhanced contrast" and was asking about an item the masked figure appeared to be carrying in his right hand. To me, that item almost looked like a closed umbrella with a handle that stuck out the side of the shaft at the end (with the person's gloved hand grasping it). There are what look like dark knobs around the close perimeter of the "umbrella" that seemed to me like they'd correspond to "knobs" at the end of an umbrella's spokes.

However, I also noticed that it appeared to me that the masked figure was carrying something in his left gloved hand. I thought it looked like some kind of formed metal extended shape (almost like an extended hood that might be installed over floodlights or over something else - and I commented so at the time). However, upon further examination it almost looks like it could be some piece of equipment or a tool and in context, I wonder if it is some kind of break-in tool (whether for doors or a safe).

I have attached a photo of my drawing atop the "enhanced contrast" photo and have also included notes as to what I think I am seeing. I've also included a cropped section to show you the same without my drawing atop it.

Following are the original quoted posts from the member (@scandiamerican ) who provided the "enhanced contrast" photos:

I’ve cropped the screenshots to approximate the same perspective as the unbackpacked man image. I tried to grab several of the same area for comparison. Hopefully obviously, I’ve not altered the images except bring up contrast and circling the area of interest.

Look at the differences.

I’ve added a postfacto screenshot from the other side that was on Fox News: Blood drops visible on the porch of Nancy Guthrie’s home | Fox News Video

Also, it was not until I was making the comparison that I realized with a creepy shudder that non-backpack man seems to be holding something in his right hand (viewer’s left), which blocks a bit of his pants on the leg. But he’s holding it a bit out from his body. It is too pixilated for me to tell what it is.

Curious whether others are seeing this too.

 

[Former Reporter]

JMO but I would guess the perp follows everything about this case very closely. I can't imagine there would be anything more important than that in the perp's life or mind at this time.

MOO

I firmly believe that the perp is a lurker on this site. JMO

 

[FromGermany1]

My theory (first try):

If the restaurant is across N's property, then in general a restaurant worker (or owner) would have been in N's area already and hadn't to drive up and down by night, seen on surveillance. His vehicle could have parked across N's property at the restaurant, from the worker's shift start to the time, when he would have needed it again.

Also he would have had the opportunity to stalk N's property by night, after shift end, a few times previous to the date of N's kidnapping. Again: his vehicle could have parked across the street at the restaurant, when he was scouting N's property. Again nothing interesting to be seen on surveillance, only a worker, who arrives for his shift and leaves at various times after his shift (as often usual for these people).

From Saturday to Sunday the time of restaurant opening maybe more extensive (Idk the restaurant), so it makes sense, when the attack on N started late in a weekend night.

A restaurant worker would probably know Nancy and her large property, maybe also knows of her Celebrity daughter. To get ransom could have been an idea, which developed more or less slowly. Debt, addiction to alcohol and/or drugs - who knows, how necessary it seemed to get money.

All MOO and speculation.

 

[Cassie P]

JMO but I would guess the perp follows everything about this case very closely. I can't imagine there would be anything more important than that in the perp's life or mind at this time.
MOO

Some people have a way of compartmentalizing various areas of their lives. One compartment has nothing to do with the other compartments. It is possible the kidnapper is going about his life as usual. Work, grocery store, family, etc.