GUILTY NH - AH, 14, North Conway, 9 October 2013 - # 8

[Mom24]

All I can google about the difference between a confirmed sighting and an unconfirmed sighting is the ability to corroborate the sighting. I can't seem to find a definitive definition of what makes a sighting confirmed or unconfirmed. Doesn't mean the info isn't out there, probably is, but I am currently using a really old comp that locks up every time I do a search and there are any graphics on the page. Sigh.

 

[Donna64]

Sometimes unconfirmed can mean they just didn't believe the person. I think she was on North/South road and I believe she did get picked up there by someone she knew.

 

[takeitfromme412]

Sorry, but I have never heard that the mother found her house in "disaray." Could you explain exactly what condition the home was in? Thanks.

It was never made public what condition the home was in.... it was taped off by state police for investigative purposes, which is becoming more routine these days in missing persons cases.... no one ever stated what condition or what alerted abby's mom at the home... but they do not believe she made it home that day

 

[Donna64]

They said they had "several"unconfirmed sightings on North/South road. Not one .several.

 

[MamaJoJo]

Sorry, but I have never heard that the mother found her house in "disaray." Could you explain exactly what condition the home was in? Thanks.

Again, it's supposition not fact. We have no knowledge of what the home's condition was when ZH arrived. Neither LE nor the media have released any details (if there even are any).

 

[Wolf Dreamer]

Other than constructing a timeline of her movements that day, I'm not sure the video would show much. This isn't downtown Boston, it's North Conway so I'm sure there are large gaps in the video surveillance, and with a moving person it's a second of a snippet here and there. If they were to put all the snippets together it might only total 5secs of film, with just bits and pieces of AH as she passed in and out of view. And they didn't say they had any video of her THAT day, they just said they had used surveillance video to put together a timeline of her route home. They may not have any surveillance video of her from the day she went missing. And they did release the video from the school as she was leaving, a video that's really quite clear in regards to what those videos usually look like, and that didn't jog anyone's memory.

This is why I push towards a reconstruction - get someone who looks enough like Abby. dressed like Abby and get a nice clear "story". If they have enough snippets they should be able to piece together her route and movements for at least some of her route. In contrast to CCTV where sometimes it would be hard to recognise yourself, you'd have clear colour footage of the person, their clothing and the scenery, any of which might be a trigger for someone's memory.

Yes, it could be too late but the UK Crimewatch does reconstructions months or even years later and can generate new leads.

 

[Donna64]

Thanks take it. I didn't think it was ever mentioned.

 

[Donna64]

I only asked as someone put it here that the house was found in such "dissaray" No biggy. Thanks.

 

[majikbeans]

I think this "taking the battery out or dropping the phone into water" is a critical distinction to make. If someone isn't just powering down (whatever that means--turning it off?), but disabling the phone in a serious way--this involves intentionality, deliberation, and that, in itself would flag LE, I suspect. Do teens ever remove their own batteries? Does anyone?
However, if it's a simple--I turn my phone off and drop out of sight easily--thing, then we have a grayer area.

 

[Donna64]

I agree Wolf. They do a lot of it with cold cases, so why wait till this one gets any colder.

 

[cluciano63]

If LE heard about even a possible suspicious vehicle in the area, even if they heard of it days or weeks later, they would have publicized it, not for an Amber Alert, but just to try to determine who it belonged to, etc.

IMO they have nothing that pushes them either way more toward abduction or runaway. They just do not know. The only thing pointing possibly more toward foul play is the length of time she has been gone, IMO.

 

[skibaboo]

You can't remove the battery from an iPhone 5. Well not without taking the thing apart with the appropriate techy tools.

 

[majikbeans]

You can't remove the battery from an iPhone 5. Well not without taking the thing apart with the appropriate techy tools.

So what you are saying is she could have switched it off?

 

[MamaJoJo]

They said they had "several"unconfirmed sightings on North/South road. Not one .several.

Do several sightings make it more likely to be true than just one sighting? Or, conversely, is it simply that more people saw someone who looked like AH?

And, how does this change how we view the little information we do have? Let's suppose she made it onto N-S Rd and was walking North. Does that sway you think it's more likely she was abducted? Or does that information keep the odds the same, or greater, that she ran away? The same question can be asked about if she made it home? If she made it to Eastman from the trail? To Walmart?

IMO, if we had a few more details (like where she was actually seen last, the state of her home, why the cavalry was brought in, etc) we would be able to hone our ideas a bit.

So, I pose to my fellow sleuthers, does where she went missing from sway you one way or the other, abduction or runaway?

 

[cluciano63]

If she was planning to leave...she might purposely walk so that she would be seen walking, as though nothing was going on. But walking could leave her open to accepting the wrong ride as well. So I am not sure anything can be determined by her vanishing en route.

 

[Mom24]

Sorry, but I have never heard that the mother found her house in "disaray." Could you explain exactly what condition the home was in? Thanks.

No it wasn't, I'm opining. in other words: I keep coming back to<insert "my aforementioned theory that I've written in many posts">...
It's never, to my knowledge, been stated in MSM or by LE the condition of the home other than a picture of the exterior in which they depict a subject from LE standing outside with yellow tape attached to trees, a picture that has been posted previously and can be found. I have previously stated, imho, that something had to be terribly wrong for ZH to have phone the police upon arrival at her home. It's my concerted opinion, further, that should a child be found not home upon the arrival of a parent that most parents would first call the child's peers to find the child rather than call the police. Again, we don't know that ZH didn't call AH's friends first but it's been stated in the timeline that ZH came home and called the police. We do know ZH worked at a nursing/rehabilitation facility nearby. The assumption is that ZH's shift ended at or around 7pm. Back to the facts: the call to police was made at 7:17pm. Back to assumption: If AH left her place of employ at 7pm it would stand to reason it took her, from the address of the rehab facility, about 10 mins to arrive home (one could get a more exact time by punching in the work address with the home address in google, I can't do it, comp can't handle graphics), so in 7 mins ZH walks in the door and calls police to report her child missing. And further assumption: something in the home must have alerted ZH to a problem. Backing up assumption with facts: the home was taped off and LE went door to door asking questions. Hence the theory that when ZH entered the home it must have been in terrible disarray for her to call the police and for them to tape off the home (crime scene) and go door to door questioning neighbors. Red is theory/assumption and opinion, blue is facts to color code to explain only the final sentence.

 

[Mom24]

This is why I push towards a reconstruction - get someone who looks enough like Abby. dressed like Abby and get a nice clear "story". If they have enough snippets they should be able to piece together her route and movements for at least some of her route. In contrast to CCTV where sometimes it would be hard to recognise yourself, you'd have clear colour footage of the person, their clothing and the scenery, any of which might be a trigger for someone's memory.

Yes, it could be too late but the UK Crimewatch does reconstructions months or even years later and can generate new leads.

I see what you're saying. They do the same thing on some of the crime shows here. Like the one John Walsh does.

 

[Hap]

I'm seriously getting confused about what is "fact" and what is "theory" here. Argh! We need a "just the facts" post, please. Anyone?

 

[Mom24]

Do several sightings make it more likely to be true than just one sighting? Or, conversely, is it simply that more people saw someone who looked like AH?

And, how does this change how we view the little information we do have? Let's suppose she made it onto N-S Rd and was walking North. Does that sway you think it's more likely she was abducted? Or does that information keep the odds the same that she ran away? The same question can be asked about if she made it home? If she made it to Eastman from the trail? To Walmart?

IMO, if we had a few more details (like where she was actually seen last, the state of her home, why the cavalry was brought in, etc) we would be able to hone our ideas a bit.

So, I pose to my fellow sleuthers, does where she went missing from sway you one way or the other, abduction or runaway?

Not really. Still could be either or. She could have been thumbing for a ride (runaway) or walking about and been lured into a vehicle (abduction). Problem is, unless there's evidence of an abuction it's a teeter totter.

 

[LookingHoping]

****The more I read the more I don't think the truth is out there (on the net) regarding cell phone pinging and on/off status****

I posted an article in the last thread. An 'off' phone can still ping. The battery needs to be removed, phone submerged in water or destroyed for this not to happen. I know I signed up to track my kids' phones. It only needed to be on for the initial set up, after that even if it was powered off it could be found on the map.