GUILTY NH - AH, 14, North Conway, 9 October 2013 - # 8

[takeitfromme412]

Abby does not belong to any organized running club. Her mom and sister are members of the White Mountain Milers. The trail was part of the search due to its location among her travels/area last scene and its proximity to the high school and north south road..... as well as K9 searches..... people hike those trails etc, they are not exclusively just for runners

 

[Cardinal47]

My understanding about the video tape mentioned in the time line is referring to past video of Abby's route when walking home. I think what they did was a comparison to what they believe her walk was that day.

I don't think so because if there was no video of her that day how would they know she went that way, that day?

 

[takeitfromme412]

LE has done their best in this case to leave no stone unturned, ie; water searches, land searches, searching by air, using K9 teams etc.....

 

[Cardinal47]

Other than constructing a timeline of her movements that day, I'm not sure the video would show much. This isn't downtown Boston, it's North Conway so I'm sure there are large gaps in the video surveillance, and with a moving person it's a second of a snippet here and there. If they were to put all the snippets together it might only total 5secs of film, with just bits and pieces of AH as she passed in and out of view. And they didn't say they had any video of her THAT day, they just said they had used surveillance video to put together a timeline of her route home. They may not have any surveillance video of her from the day she went missing. And they did release the video from the school as she was leaving, a video that's really quite clear in regards to what those videos usually look like, and that didn't jog anyone's memory.

Video and video showed quickly is how they found the killer of Micki S!

 

[Crickets]

We do know ZH worked at a nursing/rehabilitation facility nearby. The assumption is that ZH's shift ended at or around 7pm. Back to the facts: the call to police was made at 7:17pm. Back to assumption: If AH left her place of employ at 7pm it would stand to reason it took her, from the address of the rehab facility, about 10 mins to arrive home (one could get a more exact time by punching in the work address with the home address in google, I can't do it, comp can't handle graphics), so in 7 mins ZH walks in the door and calls police to report her child missing.

The nursing home where Zenya works is in Ossipee, which is much more than 10 minutes away by car. It's about a 45 minute drive.

Edited to say: While I was doing mapquest on this, it looks like Steleheart already posted this info, with a map and everything, so... nevermind

...Except to add that I also have never seen it confirmed anywhere exactly what time ZH got home from work that day. I think NG may have said 7 pm on her tv show, but since NG has made a few incorrect statements about Abby and the case, I would prefer we had an independent source for that information before we assume 7 pm is correct. Until we get that time confirmed, we don't actually know when ZH got home, so we shouldn't make any assumptions about it.

 

[Cardinal47]

We are going to have to agree to disagree here, Mom.

As far as I can tell, the timeline that has been put forth by LE and the media doesn't include what you are suggesting. I don't see any of your suppositions backed up by the link you provided. There has been no information released by LE about her movements on the day she disappeared. It really doesn't matter about PREVIOUS days, IMO. All we know is that she started texting at 2:23, she was seen on KHS video, two friends saw her walking, she stopped texting at 2:53 and the last ping was at 3:07. If they knew how far she had gotten from "snippets" of video, they would have more information to work with. LE initially thought she had walked home. Then they determined that she hadn't. Was that because there was video NOT showing her? Well, we don't really know that.

The sightings may be real though we don't know that either. They are strictly unconfirmed at this time. Had she been on N-S Rd (confirmed) we would have more information to go on. As it stands now, there's not much out there.

There sure isn't 'much out there' and here we are finishing up week 8 and they still remain silent!

 

[Mom24]

There is no information that I have found that states when ZH arrived home, that she called police right away, or that she even went to work that day. If there is that information then many people have missed a huge piece of the puzzle.

BBM: It is absolutely NOT Stated in the timeline that ZH came home and called police. Here is the timeline issued by LE:
http://www.wcsh6.com/assetpool/documents/131016071002_Picture Timeline.pdf

BBM: If ZH left her place of emplot at 7 PM she would not have been home untill 7:47 PM. ZH does NOT work at a nursing home nearby, she works at Mountain View community in Ossipee. Here is where it says where she worked;
http://www.conwaydailysun.com/index...20-mountain-view-rallies-for-hernandez-family
Here is where it says what the address is;
http://www.carrollcountynh.net/pages/CarrollcountyNH_Nursing/index
Here is where it shows the driving time:
https://maps.google.com/maps?saddr=...ReAI0uqCzTDFKE7ooUSMOkA&gl=us&mra=ls&t=m&z=10
With a theory, if it is not at least based on accurate fact and available evidence it only creates confusion. theories based on a series of assumptions are worthless IMO., and is muddying the water as far as distinguishing between rumors, conjecture and facts.

For all we know ZH may have arrived home in plenty of time to make phone calls or even take a ride looking for her - we just don't know.
If I have missed some reports on ZH's arrival time please someone let me know. This idea that she came home late and panicked has been around from the beginning and seems to be accepted as fact. Why?

Why? I don't know. We don't know when she came home, all that's been reported is she got home, AH wasn't there and ZH called LE, at least that I can remember from all the convoluted articles and changing information. When she got home may have been just an assumption, I don't know. If it's an assumption I don't know where it started from, but many of us for some reason have felt that the call to LE was swiftly done. I'd have to re-read the first set of threads to figure it out, but you're right, I don't remember reading anywhere in any article that stated the exact time when ZH got home and how long before she got home that a call to LE was made. I may have all this time been going on someone else's assumptions of the facts, I really don't remember. Let's go back to the beginning and see where those numbers came into play and figure it out. I know you're frustrated, we all are. But when someone is shot for voicing an opinion, I think it's time to cool down, go back to the beginning and follow the path again. Like you, I want this child found, and like everyone else I'm voicing my thoughts and opinions and to state my opinions are worthless and for the purpose of muddying the waters is an opinion you're certainly entitled to, but why don't we do a little fact checking first because otherwise it feels like a personal attack and I'm sure that's not what you mean it to be. If you don't think my opinions make sense, please let me know. And I'll do the same for you. It's apparent my post upset you, and I apologize in advance for any and all future worthless muddy opinions.

 

[Cardinal47]

Theyr'e pretty clear in the article by stating a timeline was put together using surveillance video. Shrug.
The sightings I'm unsure about. I don't completely understand phone technology, but from what I do understand AH's phone had to be completely disabled not just shut off in order for it to not be able to be pinged. At 3:07 her phone went off the grid, so to speak, so the assumption is it was completely disabled. Someone else noted that between AH's last text and the last ping was 14 mins. I think someone got unbelievably lucky or planned it to the minute so that they were able to grab her, subdue her and disable her phone all in 14 mins, leaving no evidence behind and not drawing attention. I don't think she was walking on N/S road having disabled her own phone. :banghead: So round and round we go. I do keep coming back to ZH having found her home in such a disarray that she called the police and their first reaction was that this was really bad. They taped off the home and went door to door questioning neighbors. Now maybe that's protocol, but I'm not convinced it is.

BBM where did you ever hear that?

 

[Steleheart]

I don't think so because if there was no video of her that day how would they know she went that way, that day?

I think because the dogs didn't pick up a seperate track different than the previous days?

 

[Mom24]

Abby does not belong to any organized running club. Her mom and sister are members of the White Mountain Milers. The trail was part of the search due to its location among her travels/area last scene and its proximity to the high school and north south road..... as well as K9 searches..... people hike those trails etc, they are not exclusively just for runners

Does she have to be part of a running club to meet people at the running club? I believe a picture shown of AH and ZH is at a running event, so I would assume she met some of the people there.

 

[Cardinal47]

****The more I read the more I don't think the truth is out there (on the net) regarding cell phone pinging and on/off status****

I posted an article in the last thread. An 'off' phone can still ping. The battery needs to be removed, phone submerged in water or destroyed for this not to happen. I know I signed up to track my kids' phones. It only needed to be on for the initial set up, after that even if it was powered off it could be found on the map.

The more I read about the phone the more I wonder if they were searching Pudding Pond for the phone!

 

[Mom24]

BBM where did you ever hear that?

Didn't, it's a theory I keep coming back to.

 

[MamaJoJo]

Someone or some source said that her mom worked until 7pm from the start. It was never confirmed if she did so that day, or even that this was a fact, as far as I know.

In either the first or second thread it was postured that nurses work 7-7. It stuck.

 

[Cardinal47]

I would call the police before calling all of my daughter's friends if she was not home as expected/ and if our "regular and frequent" contact was missing for hours before coming home and finding her absent. (You might speak when she gets home every day, or call and ask what would you like me to pick up for dinner?) It would not take a wrecked house for me to call police if contact was absent and the kid not home by 7 pm. At the same time, I believe police would go door to door asking if the child had been seen. This seems like an obvious thing to do, and an easy way to get common sense answers. Taping off the house as if it were a crime scene, however, seems a little less common--a little less standard-operating procedure. BUT--remember that in the first three days, it was reported that she arrived home (tracking dogs followed her scent) and went missing from home. That could explain the crime-scene tape in the early days. The dogs said she got home.

Well first of all we have no idea when Zenya got home from work. We only know when she called the police.

We have no idea how many people she called, if any, to find Abby before calling the police.

We have no idea if their routine was for Abby to call mom when she got home from school.

We have no idea if when Mom didn't hear from Abby as might have been their routine how many calls she might have made from work or the car.

We have no idea what Abby usually did after school.

So after 8 weeks all we do is speculate on what could have happened but still Abby is gone!

 

[Steleheart]

Why? I don't know. We don't know when she came home, all that's been reported is she got home, AH wasn't there and ZH called LE, at least that I can remember from all the convoluted articles and changing information. When she got home may have been just an assumption, I don't know. If it's an assumption I don't know where it started from, but many of us for some reason have felt that the call to LE was swiftly done. I'd have to re-read the first set of threads to figure it out, but you're right, I don't remember reading anywhere in any article that stated the exact time when ZH got home and how long before she got home that a call to LE was made. I may have all this time been going on someone else's assumptions of the facts, I really don't remember. Let's go back to the beginning and see where those numbers came into play and figure it out. I know you're frustrated, we all are. But when someone is shot for voicing an opinion, I think it's time to cool down, go back to the beginning and follow the path again. Like you, I want this child found, and like everyone else I'm voicing my thoughts and opinions and to state my opinions are worthless and for the purpose of muddying the waters is an opinion you're certainly entitled to, but why don't we do a little fact checking first because otherwise it feels like a personal attack and I'm sure that's not what you mean it to be. If you don't think my opinions make sense, please let me know. And I'll do the same for you. It's apparent my post upset you, and I apologize in advance for any and all future worthless muddy opinions.

I'm not shooting you I'm shooting down the theories Mom.
Just the theories that don't have a basis and end up with people accepting it resulting in conclusions like 'something in the house was terribly wrong for her to act so quickly" because if that were the case then LE could have then said that foul play was suspected - they are not usually coy about such things IMO.

I had looked back in the threads and found several posts where WSers tried to inject some logic in the home arrival question and got frustrated.

No it's not personal - you might be reading this :banghead: when I am also feeling this :loveyou: and I am not upset, just direct. I am far from :tantrum:

Apologies my directness made you feel that way.

For clarity I do not think yours or anyone's opinions are worthless, I meant only that theories based on error simply do not lead us anywhere.

 

[Cardinal47]

FACT: Abby is still missing.

Fact; Even with Abby missing 8 weeks they are giving nothing up!

 

[jellybeanz]

I think because the dogs didn't pick up a seperate track different than the previous days?

My thoughts on the dogs are that they tracked previous days scents on her 'normal' route from school to home. I think that is why they at first hinted she had made it home.
For whatever reason, they soon realised that she hadn't made it home. Maybe because she didn't appear on the CCTV videos she was seen on in the previous fortnight or so.
Backtracking on that info, LE would be able to deduce an approximate area she disappeared from. This would explain her mothers comments that she vanished in a public place. I think they concentrated on the Walmart area as that was the last place she was seen on video that day.
Ive not looked at the map for a while, but from the supposition ive just posted, they would have a very distinct area that they believe she disappeared from.

 

[Mom24]

I'm not shooting you I'm shooting down the theories Mom.
Just the theories that don't have a basis and end up with people accepting it resulting in conclusions like 'something in the house was terribly wrong for her to act so quickly" because if that were the case then LE could have then said that foul play was suspected - they are not usually coy about such things IMO.

I had looked back in the threads and found several posts where WSers tried to inject some logic in the home arrival question and got frustrated.

No it's not personal - you might be reading this :banghead: when I am also feeling this :loveyou: and I am not upset, just direct. I am far from :tantrum:

Apologies my directness made you feel that way.

No problem. I'm merely pissed, as in pissed off and I'm assuming you are too for the same reasons. We have no facts to go on whatsoever and we're trying to come to conclusions about a possible abduction and in the meantime we can't even be sure she didn't just run away. The whole thing is just so durn frustrating. Facts? We can't even pin LE down to any facts. They change as fast as the weather does. This whole thing reminds me of those multiple choice tests where one answer is, d. not enough information to make a conclusion. Well d it is. But do trust me, I'm more than likely to make mud as fast as I make sense now and again however I'll at least try not to be downright worthless. :scared:

 

[Mom24]

The nursing home where Zenya works is in Ossipee, which is much more than 10 minutes away by car. It's about a 45 minute drive.

Edited to say: While I was doing mapquest on this, it looks like Steleheart already posted this info, with a map and everything, so... nevermind

...Except to add that I also have never seen it confirmed anywhere exactly what time ZH got home from work that day. I think NG may have said 7 pm on her tv show, but since NG has made a few incorrect statements about Abby and the case, I would prefer we had an independent source for that information before we assume 7 pm is correct. Until we get that time confirmed, we don't actually know when ZH got home, so we shouldn't make any assumptions about it.

Maybe that's where the 7pm home arrival came from. I'm going to go peruse the archives.

 

[Mom24]

just read something and have a question. What is the difference between an amber alert and a submission to the national crime information system? They did submit AH as a missing person to the national crime information system, is that done as a matter of protocol when the missing person doesn't meet the protocol for an amber alert? And does it have the same "weight" as an amber alert? I'm assuming it's nationwide so is a poster given to all LE?