I guess I should also post what I think happened given what I currently know/believe:
MM was obviously going through a tough time. I know firsthand that "trading down" colleges can be stressful and a hit to self esteem. Add in managing a long-distance relationship, even a loving one (a short/no-distance loving relationship can even be tough at times...), car shopping with dad (I was trying to figure out if I could make a bike work after a few days of this myself.), and demanding school requirements, and I can completely see needing to get a way for a little while. I completely agree with the idea that she wanted to go be in the mountains where she felt comfortable, but didn't really settle on where she was going until she got close. (Two and a half hours travel is plenty of time to decide.)
Prior Behavior
In regards to possible credit card fraud: Possibly true. Too much has been redacted from the information posted on JR's blog for me to really make a call on this one. If true, I don't think that it necessarily signals an eating disorder or even "spiraling out of control." From the receipts shown, the purchases seem to occur over a 1-2 week period. Even with a meal plan, there were times I probably the same in a similar amount of time due to 1am calzones being too good to pass up. Using someone else's credit card is serious, but I feel that she was young enough at the time to still do something dumb without giving it a lot of thought. When I was the same age, I stole silverware, glasses, and salt shakers almost every time I went to a restaurant.
In regards to a potential problem with alcohol: I just don't see it. Friends of mine who are very successful frequently buy/consume more alcohol than we know about with MM (and I'm truly not worried about them). I haven't been to ABC, but it sounds like a type of restaurant I frequent with my friends when I get over to Boston, at which I always get a beer or two to be social. I just don't see her drinking to excess here. We don't know how much she drank at the dorm party, but even if it was a lot, we don't even know that this was a common occurrence or when she stopped prior to driving her father's car. (I've read news articles stating that she left the party around 2:30am and that accident occurred (possibly?) just a few minutes drive away at 3:33 am.) Why buy so much alcohol if you're going to be alone? Mix a few drinks while you're thinking about life, save the rest for later. (I don't know what the specific rules were in 2004, but UMass is not a dry campus.)
What happened in NH?
I give highest probability to abduction by an opportunist, maybe close to the accident, but probably a little further away. I agree that she probably took off from the car, probably a little scared and dazed by the event, in order to get better cell service and hope that BA abided by her wishes. (Reason for taking alcohol: To lessen the possibility of her appearing to have been committing a DUI, regardless of whether or not she was, just in case the police did arrive. I worry about police thinking I'm doing something wrong all the time, and I've never so much as gotten a parking ticket.) Why not go back to the store or seek out a house? Reluctance to interact with unfamiliar locals and sheer stubbornness. (Anyone willing to work two jobs while in school probably thinks they can handle themselves.) Why lock the car? Habit, I do it myself. Succumb to the elements? Doubt it. It just wasn't that cold that night (Low of 28?). Also, search of the immediate area, including helicopter search didn't turn up any sign of her (Daily Collegian, 2/17/2004). (I also recall reading them able to find moose prints, but not human foot prints, in the snow, but I forget which source that was from.) Meeting secret boyfriend/running away to [location x]? Again, probably not. I don't see almost 9 years going by without investigators being able to notice that someone else connected to her life has gone missing as well. Could there really be zero trace of her having a relationship(/friendship) with someone and having that someone be entirely unknown to her family? No email/phone records? No unaccounted for gifts/notes? Not even a confided secret with her sisters? I also don't see her doing this solo and maintaining the secret for so long. She appeared too close with family and her high school friends to not contact someone. Suicide? Probably a higher chance of this than a long-term runaway situation, but I don't see this being the case either.
Whatever happened that night, I hope she is either found soon or is living a life that makes her happy.
MM was obviously going through a tough time. I know firsthand that "trading down" colleges can be stressful and a hit to self esteem. Add in managing a long-distance relationship, even a loving one (a short/no-distance loving relationship can even be tough at times...), car shopping with dad (I was trying to figure out if I could make a bike work after a few days of this myself.), and demanding school requirements, and I can completely see needing to get a way for a little while. I completely agree with the idea that she wanted to go be in the mountains where she felt comfortable, but didn't really settle on where she was going until she got close. (Two and a half hours travel is plenty of time to decide.)
Prior Behavior
In regards to possible credit card fraud: Possibly true. Too much has been redacted from the information posted on JR's blog for me to really make a call on this one. If true, I don't think that it necessarily signals an eating disorder or even "spiraling out of control." From the receipts shown, the purchases seem to occur over a 1-2 week period. Even with a meal plan, there were times I probably the same in a similar amount of time due to 1am calzones being too good to pass up. Using someone else's credit card is serious, but I feel that she was young enough at the time to still do something dumb without giving it a lot of thought. When I was the same age, I stole silverware, glasses, and salt shakers almost every time I went to a restaurant.
In regards to a potential problem with alcohol: I just don't see it. Friends of mine who are very successful frequently buy/consume more alcohol than we know about with MM (and I'm truly not worried about them). I haven't been to ABC, but it sounds like a type of restaurant I frequent with my friends when I get over to Boston, at which I always get a beer or two to be social. I just don't see her drinking to excess here. We don't know how much she drank at the dorm party, but even if it was a lot, we don't even know that this was a common occurrence or when she stopped prior to driving her father's car. (I've read news articles stating that she left the party around 2:30am and that accident occurred (possibly?) just a few minutes drive away at 3:33 am.) Why buy so much alcohol if you're going to be alone? Mix a few drinks while you're thinking about life, save the rest for later. (I don't know what the specific rules were in 2004, but UMass is not a dry campus.)
What happened in NH?
I give highest probability to abduction by an opportunist, maybe close to the accident, but probably a little further away. I agree that she probably took off from the car, probably a little scared and dazed by the event, in order to get better cell service and hope that BA abided by her wishes. (Reason for taking alcohol: To lessen the possibility of her appearing to have been committing a DUI, regardless of whether or not she was, just in case the police did arrive. I worry about police thinking I'm doing something wrong all the time, and I've never so much as gotten a parking ticket.) Why not go back to the store or seek out a house? Reluctance to interact with unfamiliar locals and sheer stubbornness. (Anyone willing to work two jobs while in school probably thinks they can handle themselves.) Why lock the car? Habit, I do it myself. Succumb to the elements? Doubt it. It just wasn't that cold that night (Low of 28?). Also, search of the immediate area, including helicopter search didn't turn up any sign of her (Daily Collegian, 2/17/2004). (I also recall reading them able to find moose prints, but not human foot prints, in the snow, but I forget which source that was from.) Meeting secret boyfriend/running away to [location x]? Again, probably not. I don't see almost 9 years going by without investigators being able to notice that someone else connected to her life has gone missing as well. Could there really be zero trace of her having a relationship(/friendship) with someone and having that someone be entirely unknown to her family? No email/phone records? No unaccounted for gifts/notes? Not even a confided secret with her sisters? I also don't see her doing this solo and maintaining the secret for so long. She appeared too close with family and her high school friends to not contact someone. Suicide? Probably a higher chance of this than a long-term runaway situation, but I don't see this being the case either.
Whatever happened that night, I hope she is either found soon or is living a life that makes her happy.