PA PA - Ray Gricar, 59, Bellefonte, 15 April 2005 - #11

[SuperSmith]

With all due respect, your scale and public opinion are two different things. I do not think public opinion is reliable, but it can ultimately determine how much support there is for solving the case. Just look at the one caller and the reaction of the two hosts. Seriously, go back and listen. Every time someone holds to a murder theory, in spite of increased evidence against it, it helps people think that RFG wasn't a crime victim.

As for the comment, the BPD is still the lead agency. It is appropriate for them to release the information. It is also appropriate to speak with those other investigating agencies first, prior to releasing the information. It shows some discipline.

Why yes my scales and public opinion are indeed two different things much like your opinion doesn't speak for the publics opinion.

It's too early to discount the HA story JJ and in my opinion it's the quick discount by you and others that does a disservice to RG. He deserves the benefit of being thorough. BPD is a joke compared to the FBI and they are still investigating.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

The BPD has discounted the ex-Hell's Angel theory, and the FBI isn't contradicting them. There were also established problems with the theory before that, including that it is an ex-Hell's Angel.

The problem with clinging to things already discounted is that it makes if look like all foul play theories are discounted. If the best argument for RFG was the victim of foul play is a discounted theory, then RFG was not a victim of foul play.

The public is, and has been, reacting to it. That's why, just over a week ago, I had to, once again say, "no evidence Gricar was paid off by anyone." http://keepthesearchalive.wordpress.com/2013/08/04/jamison-family-sighting/#comments

 

[SuperSmith]

The BPD has discounted the ex-Hell's Angel theory, and the FBI isn't contradicting them. There were also established problems with the theory before that, including that it is an ex-Hell's Angel.

The problem with clinging to things already discounted is that it makes if look like all foul play theories are discounted. If the best argument for RFG was the victim of foul play is a discounted theory, then RFG was not a victim of foul play.

The public is, and has been, reacting to it. That's why, just over a week ago, I had to, once again say, "no evidence Gricar was paid off by anyone." http://keepthesearchalive.wordpress.com/2013/08/04/jamison-family-sighting/#comments

I'd say "trust me" when I say it is an active investigation but that won't be good enough for you. I have many contacts. The FBI does not answer to BPD and have no business or need to respond to the story or anyone else. Furthermore BB already indicated BPD laughed off the claims so I have no doubt THEY HAVE discounted it. They don't have the resources to investigate a claim like this. I'm not sure why you believe a police department, that has failed so miserably in this case, over a 20 yr DA. The FBI is still on it bud. Believe it or don't. Doesn't matter.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Well, I'm not sure that BB said anything of the sort. The informant indicates he talked to the FBI, not the BPD. According to them, the FBI did rule it out, and the FBI was the investigating agency. Funny, the informant says he talked to the FBI, the BPD says the informant talked to the FBI, but your source doesn't seem to believe that.

Perhaps your source was as good as the one I had that said there was police officer that reported seeing RFG in Lewisburg on 4/18/05.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

New blog up. which deals with public official being murdered: http://www.centredaily.com/2013/10/20/3847684/public-target.html

This one is near to my heart.

 

[SuperSmith]

Well, I'm not sure that BB said anything of the sort. The informant indicates he talked to the FBI, not the BPD. According to them, the FBI did rule it out, and the FBI was the investigating agency. Funny, the informant says he talked to the FBI, the BPD says the informant talked to the FBI, but your source doesn't seem to believe that.

Perhaps your source was as good as the one I had that said there was police officer that reported seeing RFG in Lewisburg on 4/18/05.

Why would BB go on a radio show a week after the BPD "discredited" lol the claim and completely contradict what they said? Do you think BB is in the practice of lying on air and trying to hurt the RG investigation? I think he is a good man like RG, knows his stuff, not easily fooled, and most importantly ethical just like RG.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Well, BB was not accurate on the city/county aspect. BB might believe his source; he apparently did not talk to the the person the FBI talked to. Note the he has not been involved in the investigation, to the point that LE has not interviewed him.

BB insisted that there was not enough evidence to convict Sandusky on the charges related to Victim 6. A judge felt there was enough evident to send it to trial and Sandusky was convicted of the felony and two misdemeanors. As I've said, he does not bat 1000.

He also said that the NCAA challenge to the Paterno suit had been completed, but that will not be heard until 10/29.

I generally won't go with something unless I get two independent sources. Let's face it, the informant says he talked to the FBI; the BPD says the informant talked to the FBI. I tend to feel that the FBI was handling this.

 

[SuperSmith]

Well, BB was not accurate on the city/county aspect. BB might believe his source; he apparently did not talk to the the person the FBI talked to. Note the he has not been involved in the investigation, to the point that LE has not interviewed him.

BB insisted that there was not enough evidence to convict Sandusky on the charges related to Victim 6. A judge felt there was enough evident to send it to trial and Sandusky was convicted of the felony and two misdemeanors. As I've said, he does not bat 1000.

He also said that the NCAA challenge to the Paterno suit had been completed, but that will not be heard until 10/29.

I generally won't go with something unless I get two independent sources. Let's face it, the informant says he talked to the FBI; the BPD says the informant talked to the FBI. I tend to feel that the FBI was handling this.

"Tony Gricar said. “Then on the other hand, if there was a foul play element, a prisoner might be just as good a source as anyone on the planet.”

Read more here: http://www.centredaily.com/2013/09/20/3797720/police-investigate-claim-that.html#storylink=cpy

 

[J. J. in Phila]

"You take them with a grain of salt," Tony Gricar said.

http://www.altoonamirror.com/page/c...Police-probe-claim-Gricar-killed.html?nav=742

It is something that was plausible enough to be checked. It was and it was discounted.

If this this best evidence for murder, then it is hugely likely that that RFG committed suicide or walked away, probably the latter. The problem is, this discounted theory is not the foul theory with the most evidence.

 

[SuperSmith]

"You take them with a grain of salt," Tony Gricar said.

http://www.altoonamirror.com/page/c...Police-probe-claim-Gricar-killed.html?nav=742

It is something that was plausible enough to be checked. It was and it was discounted.

If this this best evidence for murder, then it is hugely likely that that RFG committed suicide or walked away, probably the latter. The problem is, this discounted theory is not the foul theory with the most evidence.

Discounted by the BPD but not the FBI so it is NOT discounted. BB's story adds fuel to it.

 

[Saunterer]

This particular revenge-killing scenario was independently corroborated by BB's informant. If GB's informant (through his attorney) has now worked out an immunity deal, we should eventually see more in the news about it...hopefully sooner than later.

Gricar becoming distraught and otherwise acting unusually in the weeks leading up to his disappearance could tie into this scenario. That he did not tell anyone or seek help, and felt compelled to follow instructions, may have been his only option to protect his loved ones from harm.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

The BPD got their information from the FBI, which was the agency that did the actual investigation. The BPD is the lead agency, but they obviously cannot conduct all the aspects of the investigation.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

First, why would acting "distraught" or tired or unfocused tie into this scenario?

Secondly, you do realize this has been more than a month since the story was revealed and probable 3-9 months since it was investigated, right?

Further, the only thing that has been possibly corroborated is that the informant told his story to two different people (along with the FBI); we don't know if the details are the same.

Let's put it this way.

Mine shaft guy did talk to the FBI. He talked to at least one other person, GB. He tipped off the FBI and may have talked to BB's informant.

Mine shaft guy's story seems to have changed or was inaccurate. RFG didn't prosecute the case, as first reported; Sloane did. A K didn't receive the harsh sentence Sloane asked for. It was known, during the sentencing, that A K was an informant for the FBI (which might another motive for mine shaft guy not to be honest).

Now we have a story that A K told someone that RFG's body, hidden in a mine shaft, was in Quarryville, Bucks County, a nonexistent place. Further, we are told that there are lot of mine shafts in that area, but neither Quarryville, Lancaster County, nor Bucks County have a lot of mine shafts. Both are more than 100 miles from Lewisburg.

We also know that, by the trial of A K, he was known to have been an informant and was not in the HA. How likely is it that a group of current Hell Angel's are going to help out a former member that is an informant? How likely is it for one guy to be able to do all of this, considering that RFG was in a public place?

Now, I'll agree that nine shaft guy's story could have been garbled in the retelling.

If this is the best foul play scenario, the odds are overwhelmingly in favor of Walkaway or Suicide.

 

[SuperSmith]

The BPD got their information from the FBI, which was the agency that did the actual investigation. The BPD is the lead agency, but they obviously cannot conduct all the aspects of the investigation.

"It's ongoing," Bellefonte police Detective Matthew Rickard said Thursday of the investigation into the claim.

"Rickard said more interviews needed to be conducted, and he hadn't been briefed by the FBI as to the current status of the probe."

 

[SuperSmith]

First, why would acting "distraught" or tired or unfocused tie into this scenario?

Secondly, you do realize this has been more than a month since the story was revealed and probable 3-9 months since it was investigated, right?

Further, the only thing that has been possibly corroborated is that the informant told his story to two different people (along with the FBI); we don't know if the details are the same.

Let's put it this way.

Mine shaft guy did talk to the FBI. He talked to at least one other person, GB. He tipped off the FBI and may have talked to BB's informant.

Mine shaft guy's story seems to have changed or was inaccurate. RFG didn't prosecute the case, as first reported; Sloane did. A K didn't receive the harsh sentence Sloane asked for. It was known, during the sentencing, that A K was an informant for the FBI (which might another motive for mine shaft guy not to be honest).

Now we have a story that A K told someone that RFG's body, hidden in a mine shaft, was in Quarryville, Bucks County, a nonexistent place. Further, we are told that there are lot of mine shafts in that area, but neither Quarryville, Lancaster County, nor Bucks County have a lot of mine shafts. Both are more than 100 miles from Lewisburg.

We also know that, by the trial of A K, he was known to have been an informant and was not in the HA. How likely is it that a group of current Hell Angel's are going to help out a former member that is an informant? How likely is it for one guy to be able to do all of this, considering that RFG was in a public place?

Now, I'll agree that nine shaft guy's story could have been garbled in the retelling.

If this is the best foul play scenario, the odds are overwhelmingly in favor of Walkaway or Suicide.

I imagine if you feared for your life and/or knew you were being followed, or feared for your family that "being distraught" would be likely.

You need to listen to Buehners interview again. I think you may be confused.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

"'We looked into the claim thoroughly, and there may be some loose ends, but at this point, it is unsubstantiated,' Weaver said Saturday of a claim followed up on by the FBI earlier this year."

and

"On Saturday, Chief Weaver went further to say the story was thoroughly checked out and the investigation into the matter is 99 percent wrapped up."

http://www.altoonamirror.com/page/content.detail/id/575024.html

Two days later, to the same reporter.

Now, if this the best murder scenario, it looks like there is a 1% of murder. Hint: This is far from the best murder scenario.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Smith, if RFG was suddenly, "in fear for his life," or was being followed, why did he drive 50 miles from home, and go into an area without cell coverage, where he couldn't even call for help? Why didn't he call the police or call back to his office and have them call the police?

If this is the best murder scenario, it must be walkaway or suicide.

 

[Trackergd]

<respectful snip for brevity>

Now we have a story that A K told someone that RFG's body, hidden in a mine shaft, was in Quarryville, Bucks County, a nonexistent place. Further, we are told that there are lot of mine shafts in that area, but neither Quarryville, Lancaster County, nor Bucks County have a lot of mine shafts. Both are more than 100 miles from Lewisburg.

True

None of my sources have seen any mine shafts being filled in nor any movement of heavy equipment outside of normal construction work.

We also know that, by the trial of A K, he was known to have been an informant and was not in the HA. How likely is it that a group of current Hell Angel's are going to help out a former member that is an informant?

It's more likely that current HA members would help an informant into another mine shaft or other convenient hole in the ground.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I took a look at the day before. We know RFG was at Lake Raystown that morning. Even the closest spot is more than 45 miles from Bellefonte; a round trip would be more than 90 miles.

The route isn't direct, it requires about 5-6 turns. Most of the traffic on the start would be between Bellefonte and State College (the county seat and the largest town), but you would either drive around or through State College to get there. There would be very little traffic, if any, that would be going to Lake Raystown from Bellefonte at the same time. There would be virtually none that would leave at the same time and go back to Bellefonte.

If someone was following RFG for weeks, or even during that week, why wouldn't RFG notice and why wouldn't he call the police when he got back on 4/14/05?

Being tailed by an informant ex-Hell's Angel, even for a week, really does not add up. It should be clear that this wasn't BB's suggestion.

 

[SuperSmith]

"'We looked into the claim thoroughly, and there may be some loose ends, but at this point, it is unsubstantiated,' Weaver said Saturday of a claim followed up on by the FBI earlier this year."

and

"On Saturday, Chief Weaver went further to say the story was thoroughly checked out and the investigation into the matter is 99 percent wrapped up."

http://www.altoonamirror.com/page/content.detail/id/575024.html

Two days later, to the same reporter.

Now, if this the best murder scenario, it looks like there is a 1% of murder. Hint: This is far from the best murder scenario.

This certainly isn't the only foul play scenario I've been looking at. :banghead: