PA PA - Ray Gricar, 59, Bellefonte, 15 April 2005 - #12

[Trackergd]

It would make very little sense to throw a computer and a removed hard drive into a river if all it had been doing was sitting in a closet unused - unless - it was pulled out and used as a "thumb drive" to store data in transit.

 

[SuperSmith]

Snipped



Yes, I actually learned to drive on remote county roads, so I am passingly familiar with the traffic patterns. The key is that RFG made a number of turns from his residence. Assume that someone was following him from the area around his house and that RFG crossed Bellefonte via Bishop Street. Just to get to Centre Hall, he'd need to make three turns (r. on 220, l. on 26, l. 144 (or Harrison Road). That just gets him to 192.

After three turns, he should notice someone following him, especially after he makes the fourth turn onto 192.

The evidence puts him in Lewisburg, witnesses, the scent, the Mini, after about Noon on 4/15/05 and no evidence indicates that his car was forced off the road on the way to Lewisburg. There were not mud splatters nor leaf fragments.



There is simply too much evidence that puts him there on 4/15 for me to seriously question that.



Primarily. The air searches of 192/45 were started in the morning of 4/16 and I think there was only one flyover after that. The car was spotted at about 6:30 PM



The map was discovered early one, I think during the weekend of 4/16. That would indicate it was recent. If he wanted to check the time, and leave the car behind (it belonged to PEF), it wouldn't make too much of a difference. It would have been possible that the car would be discovered prior to the map being discovered.

The map to Lewisburg does strongly point to RFG planning to go to Lewisburg.

Are we relying on the eyewitness account that they saw RG/Mini turning onto 192 in Centre Hall? It appears alternative routes are just as easy from Patty's house. Zion Rd. to Rt.64 to Rt. 445 over to 192.

He very well may have been in Lewisburg. I was just stating for me it's not 100% certain although that doesn't mean much to most.

We'll have to agree to disagree on the map. I don't think that just because the map was found that weekend means it was generated recently although as I said even if it was generated recently there are other explanations as with anything.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

It would make very little sense to throw a computer and a removed hard drive into a river if all it had been doing was sitting in a closet unused - unless - it was pulled out and used as a "thumb drive" to store data in transit.

RFG had used it as a "home computer" until 12/04 or 1/05.

I would not rule out a simple privacy concern. I've heard that he didn't shop on-line, but he may have had financial data on it. Knowing the, er, shenanigans, of some of the staff, there might have been personnel reports on it, and possibly confidential case notes.

I don't find it strange or sinister to destroy the drive, since there would not be a huge replacement cost. I would even call it "prudent," assuming he was planning to return after doing it.

 

[SuperSmith]

I am firmly in the "He was in Lewisburg camp". Too much circumstantial and physical evidence. For him not to have been there would suggest it was one heck of an organized and pre-planned "red herring" by unknown actors.

I think after 8.5 years that whomever planned this has left little doubt that it was well organized and planned out.

I agree there IS a lot of circumstantial evidence that could point walk away but for that is another reason why I believe it is not. RG, if he did this, left a long trail that I don't think he would've done if he planned it.

The Map
The Mini
The Laptop
The Hard Drive
The Searches

As Rickard said about the internet searches "Why would he do that? He knew we would find them."

Why, if Ray Gricar wanted to disappear would he leave key evidence behind to directly point to him walking away?

 

[SuperSmith]

RFG had used it as a "home computer" until 12/04 or 1/05.

Link please? I thought it was early 2004 but I may be mistaken. Thank you in advance

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Are we relying on the eyewitness account that they saw RG/Mini turning onto 192 in Centre Hall? It appears alternative routes are just as easy from Patty's house. Zion Rd. to Rt.64 to Rt. 445 over to 192.

That would still involve the same number of turns. I tried to pick the route where it would be the easiest to follow him.

He very well may have been in Lewisburg. I was just stating for me it's not 100% certain although that doesn't mean much to most.

We'll have to agree to disagree on the map. I don't think that just because the map was found that weekend means it was generated recently although as I said even if it was generated recently there are other explanations as with anything.

They didn't have the time (or the ability) to do a full forensic analysis on the office computer. However, I would find it just too coincidental that he drew a map to Lewisburg recently and his car just happened to end up there.

Now, he could have been checking the time for someone else to drive there, but he wasn't a travel agent. It would add some weight to giving the time/directions to someone he'd be meeting there, or to wanting to check the drive time for himself.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Link please? I thought it was early 2004 but I may be mistaken. Thank you in advance

It is actually on the timeline from the site that you posted, the first item. It is my recollection as well.

The laptop was issued in late 2003 or early 2004, which might be the source of confusion.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I think after 8.5 years that whomever planned this has left little doubt that it was well organized and planned out.

I agree there IS a lot of circumstantial evidence that could point walk away but for that is another reason why I believe it is not. RG, if he did this, left a long trail that I don't think he would've done if he planned it.

The Map
The Mini
The Laptop
The Hard Drive
The Searches

As Rickard said about the internet searches "Why would he do that? He knew we would find them."

Why, if Ray Gricar wanted to disappear would he leave key evidence behind to directly point to him walking away?

Well, if it wasn't him, that would involve both entry to his private office and residence, and the password to his computer in the former (I don't know about the home computer). Again, the likelihood of someone else doing all that approaches 0%.

LE would find them, but not immediately. It took them until late 2006 to discover the searches. It all fairness, the first thing that LE would not do is check the searches.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I found this quote from Chief Weaver tonight, though it has been linked:

“He had about a zero chance of being a victim of a homicide on that day in Lewisburg,” Weaver said. “You don’t have a smoking gun. You don’t have a lot of evidence left behind.”

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/i...erry-sandusky-disappeared-05-article-1.974806

BBM

Assume that the 4/16/05 witnesses were correct.

If he wasn't killed the first day, why would he spend the night, and where? Why wouldn't he call PEF, even with an excuse (i.e., said he had too much to drink, or car trouble, and was going to get a motel room)?

 

[nevereverever]

I think after 8.5 years that whomever planned this has left little doubt that it was well organized and planned out.

I agree there IS a lot of circumstantial evidence that could point walk away but for that is another reason why I believe it is not. RG, if he did this, left a long trail that I don't think he would've done if he planned it.

The Map
The Mini
The Laptop
The Hard Drive
The Searches

As Rickard said about the internet searches "Why would he do that? He knew we would find them."

Why, if Ray Gricar wanted to disappear would he leave key evidence behind to directly point to him walking away?

If he was walking away, why would he care if they found this trail of evidence? He'd already be gone. As long as nothing pointed to where he went, I'm not sure why that would have mattered to him. Heck, maybe he wanted people to deduce he walked away.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

If he was walking away, why would he care if they found this trail of evidence? He'd already be gone. As long as nothing pointed to where he went, I'm not sure why that would have mattered to him. Heck, maybe he wanted people to deduce he walked away.

You might want to Google the book "20/20 Vision" and "Ray Gricar."

However, the key might be that that would be hugely unlikely that LE would discover any of these thing until well after he was gone.

If I was unaccounted for for the same period of time, and out for a drive, LE in Philly would wait 48 hours to do anything. One of the things I'd credit the BPD for was starting things up that night/early morning. They might have found the car until 4/17-4/18. If the Mini was sitting there for a few days, somebody would check it.

 

[SuperSmith]

RFG had used it as a "home computer" until 12/04 or 1/05.

I politely asked for a link for this. I had never heard this. You replied to me that is was in this link that I posted. https://sites.google.com/site/raygricar/timeline

The link only indicates 2004 with no month. So back to the original question. Can you provide a link that says Ray was using his laptop as a home computer until 12/04-1/05?

This evidence is important and is unfair to the readers to post incorrect information whether accidentally or intentionally.

 

[SuperSmith]

It is actually on the timeline from the site that you posted, the first item. It is my recollection as well.

The laptop was issued in late 2003 or early 2004, which might be the source of confusion.

I still do not believe that Centre County issued a 1998/99 Micron Trek II to the DA in late 2003/2004. I believe it's more likely he received that laptop much earlier.

 

[SuperSmith]

If he was walking away, why would he care if they found this trail of evidence? He'd already be gone. As long as nothing pointed to where he went, I'm not sure why that would have mattered to him. Heck, maybe he wanted people to deduce he walked away.

Good points. I wonder why then if it was his intent to disappear and never be found then why destroy the laptop at all? Do you believe his plans were on the laptop? Why not take the laptop or at least the hard drive with him? It was small enough to put in his back pocket.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I politely asked for a link for this. I had never heard this. You replied to me that is was in this link that I posted. https://sites.google.com/site/raygricar/timeline

The link only indicates 2004 with no month. So back to the original question. Can you provide a link that says Ray was using his laptop as a home computer until 12/04-1/05?

This evidence is important and is unfair to the readers to post incorrect information whether accidentally or intentionally.

As I've indicated, I recalled that it was around Christmas 2004. That site is clear that the laptop was used as the "home computer." This article, "The River's Edge," indicates the desktop was purchased "recently," as of 4/17/05. http://z10.invisionfree.com/usedtobedoe/index.php?showtopic=2226

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Good points. I wonder why then if it was his intent to disappear and never be found then why destroy the laptop at all? Do you believe his plans were on the laptop? Why not take the laptop or at least the hard drive with him? It was small enough to put in his back pocket.

He could, and could have, downloaded everything to a flash drive.

Potentially, the laptop could be traced.

 

[SuperSmith]

I found this quote from Chief Weaver tonight, though it has been linked:

“He had about a zero chance of being a victim of a homicide on that day in Lewisburg,” Weaver said. “You don’t have a smoking gun. You don’t have a lot of evidence left behind.”

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/i...erry-sandusky-disappeared-05-article-1.974806

BBM

Assume that the 4/16/05 witnesses were correct.



If he wasn't killed the first day, why would he spend the night, and where? Why wouldn't he call PEF, even with an excuse (i.e., said he had too much to drink, or car trouble, and was going to get a motel room)?

From your same link. Ray's attorney

"The attorney who represented the Gricar family during the legal process told The News there were no signs that Ray Gricar was suicidal.

“He was a very well-respected attorney at the peak of his career,” said Amos Goodall. “I knew Ray for 25 years. He was planning on retiring. He was happy, healthy, in a good relationship. I know how much he loved his daughter.”

But, Goodall added, “I’m absolutely convinced Ray is deceased.” He would not speculate on whether he was murdered."

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I still do not believe that Centre County issued a 1998/99 Micron Trek II to the DA in late 2003/2004. I believe it's more likely he received that laptop much earlier.

The county has said within the 18 months, roughly, prior to the disappearance. The Micron wasn't discontinued until later, though it wasn't the latest model in 2003-04. Cost might have been a factor.

 

[SuperSmith]

He could, and could have, downloaded everything to a flash drive.

Potentially, the laptop could be traced.

True he could have downloaded to a flash drive but that doesn't really answer the question I posed to nevereverever.

Only way to be traced is to be online.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

From your same link. Ray's attorney

"The attorney who represented the Gricar family during the legal process told The News there were no signs that Ray Gricar was suicidal.

“He was a very well-respected attorney at the peak of his career,” said Amos Goodall. “I knew Ray for 25 years. He was planning on retiring. He was happy, healthy, in a good relationship. I know how much he loved his daughter.”

But, Goodall added, “I’m absolutely convinced Ray is deceased.” He would not speculate on whether he was murdered."

And, in his mid-60's RFG might well have died. It doesn't tell us the answer to the question, "What happened to Ray Gricar?"

It doesn't answer my question about why RFG, assuming he was the victim of foul play, might have spent the night in Lewisburg or where he spent it?