PA PA - Ray Gricar, 59, Bellefonte, 15 April 2005 - #14

[J. J. in Phila]

I have to disagree. Everything about this case says voluntary disappearance. What's key for me is that someone at Gricar's home performed searches on how to destroy a hard drive. My guess is that Gricar was trying to create a new identity for himself, and his hard drive contained information that could have led someone to him.
There a smaller possibility that he actually did commit suicide and that the hard drive contained information that he was ashamed to have people see after his death.
My breakdown is therefore:
Voluntary disappearance: 75%
Suicide: 25%
Foul Play: 0%

I'd still give foul play much higher odds. If RFG walked away, how did he get out of Lewisburg. I have some ideas, but no evidence.

 

[howardstern]

I'd still give foul play much higher odds. If RFG walked away, how did he get out of Lewisburg. I have some ideas, but no evidence.

And to add on to that, I think we have too little evidence to really rule anything completely out. There's a million things that could have hypothetically happened to Ray; I find it a bit disingenuous to rule anything out at this stage of things.

I think we could rule something like an alien abduction completely out, but there are too many missing pieces to definitively believe Ray wasn't, in someway, a victim of foul play.

Hope you all are enjoying your holiday weekend!

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Everyone please have a happy holiday as well.

And to add on to that, I think we have too little evidence to really rule anything completely out. There's a million things that could have hypothetically happened to Ray; I find it a bit disingenuous to rule anything out at this stage of things.

I think we could rule something like an alien abduction completely out, but there are too many missing pieces to definitively believe Ray wasn't, in someway, a victim of foul play.

Hope you all are enjoying your holiday weekend!

I think there are some specific scenarios for both foul play and voluntary departure that could be ruled out, variations on a themes as it were. Broadly, however, the possibilities cannot be ruled out.

 

[MissJ]

That isn't true.He may have had a plan for how to earn money after leaving, or he may have un away with the cooperation of someone who was prepared to support him.Who suggested that? A single person can live on half that amount without too much difficulty. I should know because I've done it. If he had plans to move into the home of a lover, he wouldn't even have needed that much.
The "something bad" could be something as simple as an unfulfilling or stressful life. Or, he could have been leading a double life beforehand. Maybe he was a closeted homosexual and decided that the only way to pursue that lifestyle openly was with a new identity.

Actually I never suggested $4000. a month was not enough to live on. Someone else did when we were discussing RFG's lack of savings and his possible income from his pension. So picking and choosing my statements without knowing what I was talking about is jumping to conclusions. I was actually pointing out that RFG could very well have been planning to live on his pension and having no car or house payment would have been easy.

As someone else pointed out, we can't rule out much of anything. Since we don't know where he is we can't make any assumptions.

 

[SuperSmith]

Talk about assumptions...lover? Homosexual?

 

[SuperSmith]

You need to do more research if you believe this.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Talk about assumptions...lover? Homosexual?

Based on the evidence we have, a heterosexual could not be ruled out. A homosexual lover could is much less likely, since the evidence we have is that RFG was heterosexual.

Certainly someone, a "ladies man and a charmer" seen with a woman, fifty miles from home, in an area where he would not be recognized, and not giving his girlfriend or staff any indication where he would be, would raise a romantic encounter as a possibility. It could have ended as foul play as well.

 

[MissJ]

Talk about assumptions...lover? Homosexual?

Yes, quite an assumption huh?

 

[MissJ]

I have to disagree. Everything about this case says voluntary disappearance. What's key for me is that someone at Gricar's home performed searches on how to destroy a hard drive. My guess is that Gricar was trying to create a new identity for himself, and his hard drive contained information that could have led someone to him.
There a smaller possibility that he actually did commit suicide and that the hard drive contained information that he was ashamed to have people see after his death.
My breakdown is therefore:
Voluntary disappearance: 75%
Suicide: 25%
Foul Play: 0%

Disagree all you want but you might want to know what I'm talking about before you attack my statements.

 

[SuperSmith]

The mystery woman has never been confirmed.

 

[MissJ]

True. I tend to doubt a lot of the so-called sightings on RFG that day. JMO

 

[J. J. in Phila]

The mystery woman has never been confirmed.

If it was "confirmed" it would be a mystery.

Several witnesses support that he was seen with a woman. Now, that alone does not confirm that RFG was there to meet a woman, but it is possible and it is consistent with some of the other evidence. That should not be dismissed as a possibility.

 

[SuperSmith]

Confirmed means she has been either found or identified so NO she (if exists) is not a fact of this case.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Confirmed means she has been either found or identified so NO she (if exists) is not a fact of this case.

The existence of the "Mystery Woman" is likely. People saw her. She may not have been connected to RFG at all. We cannot however assume that she does not exist. She may exist. If she was identified, she wouldn't be a mystery woman.

 

[SuperSmith]

I'm sure a lot people saw a lot of woman that weekend. Such as Ivy Butterworths account of seeing him with a blonde in the parking lot.

No factual evidence exists that he was even in the SOS that weekend. Craig Bennett is the only one I know of that claims he saw RG in the SOS but the dogs say otherwise.

 

[Ozoner]

Disagree all you want but you might want to know what I'm talking about before you attack my statements.

I knew exactly what you were talking about. I was commenting on specific statements of yours, which include numerous flaws in logic. I expressed no opinion on whether Gricar could have lived on his pension. I can criticize specific comments of yours without addressing every single point that you're trying to make.

 

[Ozoner]

Yes, quite an assumption huh?

No, not an assumption at all. I raised it as a possibility; I didn't assume anything. Learn the difference.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I'm sure a lot people saw a lot of woman that weekend. Such as Ivy Butterworths account of seeing him with a blonde in the parking lot.

No factual evidence exists that he was even in the SOS that weekend. Craig Bennett is the only one I know of that claims he saw RG in the SOS but the dogs say otherwise.

We have at two who saw RFG with a woman in the SoS on 4/15/05.

You forgot about Brad Alvey.

 

[MissJ]

No, not an assumption at all. I raised it as a possibility; I didn't assume anything. Learn the difference.

Your title stated you were refuting my assumptions. Assumptions are refuted with facts Not opinions. I DO know the difference.

 

[MissJ]

I knew exactly what you were talking about. I was commenting on specific statements of yours, which include numerous flaws in logic. I expressed no opinion on whether Gricar could have lived on his pension. I can criticize specific comments of yours without addressing every single point that you're trying to make.

Apparently not the case. Why else take a quote out of context? $4000. for instance. You went on to agree that that amount of money was quite livable. Why not refute the assumption of the person who said it was not?