PA PA - Ray Gricar, 59, Bellefonte, 15 April 2005 - #15

[J. J. in Phila]

Voluntary includes suicide,which has gone up. When I started posting, I gave both walkaway and suicide a 33% percent chance each. The total chance that RFG's disappearance was voluntary was 66% likely.

In 2008, I gave the chance of suicide at 10%. That is a 22 point drop. The walkaway chance was 45%; that is an increase of 12 points. The overall chance that the reason for RFG's disappearance being voluntary is 55%, which is an 11 point drop. It became less likely that RFG's disappearance was do to a voluntary act on his part.

One factor is money, which was lower than should be expected base on his salary and expenses (a lot of this is on thread #14). His estate in 2011 was less than $25 K.Why would he have so little money?

There are multiple potential answers to this question:

1. He made some bad investments. That is not a reason for him to be murdered, or to walk away; he did not walk out on any debt. If true, that is not a reason for him to be murdered or to walk away. It would be a reason to commit suicide, i.e. he could have the type of retirement he wanted.

This would not be reason for RFG to be murdered or to walkaway.

2. He was doing estate planning. He put his money into financial instruments that would not go into his estate, e.g. a paid off life insurance policy. That is quite possible. We know he did do things like buy the Mini and put it in PEF's name; he also paid off part of her mortgage and did want to be put on the deed. He could have done that, because he was thinking about suicide. He could have done that because he was planning to walk away and knew that, at some point, he'd be declared dead.

That would not be a reason for murder.

3. He moved his assets off-shore to protect them during his 2001 divorce. We know that the marriage was troubled for some time. His divorce was granted about 5 weeks prior to 9-11. It is possible that he would have had a problem getting his money back into the country. That is a good reason to leave, because he can't spend the money in the US.

That would not be a reason for murder.

These possibilities all have something in common. They all point to something, but they don't point to foul play.

There is also the possibility that his finances were not related to his disappearance, e.g., he had money overseas that was untouched by him after 4/15/05. So the clue of the money either points to suicide or walkaway, or it is unrelated with his disappearance.

The same thing can be said about his demeanor before he disappeared. It either points to suicide or walkaway, or it was not related to his disappearance.

The same thing can be said about the laptop. It either points to walkaway or suicide, or it was not related to his disappearance.

How many "it was not related to his disappearance" possibilities are needed until that becomes too great to be coincidental?

All of the evidence is consistent with the theory that RFG walked away. Much of the evidence is consistent with suicide. A sizable portion of the evidence is not consistent with RFG being a crime victim.

Right now, I cannot think of one piece of evidence that exclusively points to RFG being a crime victim or one piece of evidence that points exclusively to RFG committing suicide. There is some weaker evidence that points exclusively to RFG walking away; in other words, it either points to RFG walking away or it is coincidence.

 

[Talisman]

Voluntary includes suicide,which has gone up. When I started posting, I gave both walkaway and suicide a 33% percent chance each. The total chance that RFG's disappearance was voluntary was 66% likely.

In 2008, I gave the chance of suicide at 10%. That is a 22 point drop. The walkaway chance was 45%; that is an increase of 12 points. The overall chance that the reason for RFG's disappearance being voluntary is 55%, which is an 11 point drop. It became less likely that RFG's disappearance was do to a voluntary act on his part.

One factor is money, which was lower than should be expected base on his salary and expenses (a lot of this is on thread #14). His estate in 2011 was less than $25 K.Why would he have so little money?

There are multiple potential answers to this question:

1. He made some bad investments. That is not a reason for him to be murdered, or to walk away; he did not walk out on any debt. If true, that is not a reason for him to be murdered or to walk away. It would be a reason to commit suicide, i.e. he could have the type of retirement he wanted.

This would not be reason for RFG to be murdered or to walkaway.

2. He was doing estate planning. He put his money into financial instruments that would not go into his estate, e.g. a paid off life insurance policy. That is quite possible. We know he did do things like buy the Mini and put it in PEF's name; he also paid off part of her mortgage and did want to be put on the deed. He could have done that, because he was thinking about suicide. He could have done that because he was planning to walk away and knew that, at some point, he'd be declared dead.

That would not be a reason for murder.

3. He moved his assets off-shore to protect them during his 2001 divorce. We know that the marriage was troubled for some time. His divorce was granted about 5 weeks prior to 9-11. It is possible that he would have had a problem getting his money back into the country. That is a good reason to leave, because he can't spend the money in the US.

That would not be a reason for murder.

These possibilities all have something in common. They all point to something, but they don't point to foul play.

There is also the possibility that his finances were not related to his disappearance, e.g., he had money overseas that was untouched by him after 4/15/05. So the clue of the money either points to suicide or walkaway, or it is unrelated with his disappearance.

The same thing can be said about his demeanor before he disappeared. It either points to suicide or walkaway, or it was not related to his disappearance.

The same thing can be said about the laptop. It either points to walkaway or suicide, or it was not related to his disappearance.

How many "it was not related to his disappearance" possibilities are needed until that becomes too great to be coincidental?

All of the evidence is consistent with the theory that RFG walked away. Much of the evidence is consistent with suicide. A sizable portion of the evidence is not consistent with RFG being a crime victim.

Right now, I cannot think of one piece of evidence that exclusively points to RFG being a crime victim or one piece of evidence that points exclusively to RFG committing suicide. There is some weaker evidence that points exclusively to RFG walking away; in other words, it either points to RFG walking away or it is coincidence.

Thanks, J.J.

I shouldn't reply yet (haven't gone through the threads & refreshed my memory). Not sure if all of the 'facts' that we knew then have changed. Maybe a lot has been added to that list.

I wasn't really a part of the Sandusky Penn State threads here. Crimes against children are extremely hard for me to follow. I'm not able to 'keep rational', my emotions rule my brain. Anyone can probably tell that by reading my posts & the language used. But, I'm sure the Sandusky investigation was covered by posters in Ray's thread. I remember hearing Ray's name during that & the questions surrounding him deciding not to press charges.
So much information to go through, reading your ideas & other posters thoughts. You probably get sick of going over and over the same things. Especially with someone new to Ray's case or like me, refreshing my memory on it. That's one of the reasons I'm going to dig deep into these threads - that, and for myself. Odd, but I feel Ray Gricar is 'owed' that - in case it was foul play.
I still have a hard time with walkaway & suicide (he was retiring, no known problems with PF, etc..)
But, also know that facts might have changed in his case since I'm waaaay behind ...

Thanks, as always, J.J.!!

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Respectfully snipped.

Thanks, J.J.

I shouldn't reply yet (haven't gone through the threads & refreshed my memory). Not sure if all of the 'facts' that we knew then have changed. Maybe a lot has been added to that list.

Thread #11, page 7 is where we began to discuss finances and got some data, primarily from TrackerGD.

This was were the foul play theory took a big hit.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Here is a video, which is basically a summary:

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Hear is a podcast that I don't recommend: Ray Gricar

It really doesn't anything new and has a lot of inaccruracies.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Some posibly new information:

On the 13th anniversary, Craig Bennett, SOS owner gave an interview to WNEP. He indicated that the Mini was in the first row. I had been told it was the second row.

13th Anniversary of Gricar Disappearance

 

[GarAndTeed]

J.J. I have to agree with @Talisman - you ROCK, big time. I've followed this case from the beginning here, and I deeply appreciate your commitment and dedication. Thank you SO much!

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I heard from Mr. Bennett. RFG's car was in the front row, bordering Water Street, all the way at the end, next the double house.

It is not pictured, but it would be to the right of the photo. There is also a screen shot. The Mini was where the measurement starts.

You can "drive" down the street using Google Streetview. The parking space isn't hidden from the street, but there can be a lot of things to obstruct the view. It was not the most visible place to park the car.

 

[SeekingJana]

Some posibly new information:

On the 13th anniversary, Craig Bennett, SOS owner gave an interview to WNEP. He indicated that the Mini was in the first row. I had been told it was the second row.

13th Anniversary of Gricar Disappearance

I think we remember things differently about this point, J.J..
Every re-enactment for TV and all the statements have shown and/ or said " first row of the parking lot" and I believe near the end of the row next to the street. Thus, likely only one parking space next to him...

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I think we remember things differently about this point, J.J..
Every re-enactment for TV and all the statements have shown and/ or said " first row of the parking lot" and I believe near the end of the row next to the street. Thus, likely only one parking space next to him...

Tony Gricar said it was the second row. By the time he arrived, the car had been moved. Bennett was an actual witness.

 

[SeekingJana]

Tony Gricar said it was the second row. By the time he arrived, the car had been moved. Bennett was an actual witness.

The state policeman who reported the car as being Mr. Gricar's has commented on the prominent way it was positioned in the parking lot. Front row, next to Water St.

When you say " By the time Tony arrived, the car had been moved", do you mean removed for criminal processing or for some strange reason I've never known before, moved to the second row? I think I know, but it's important to the newcomers that we are precise if we can be.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I've never heard the report of the PSP trooper; I actually tried to contact him at one point.

When dealing with before,I had always been told the second row.

 

[Trackergd]

Which makes you wonder about the scent dog results around the parking spot in the second row and raises more questions about the ash and smell in the car when found.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Which makes you wonder about the scent dog results around the parking spot in the second row and raises more questions about the ash and smell in the car when found.

I don't know of anything that said the scent was detected around the second row.

The reports said that the bloodhound traced the scent about 25 yards but within the parking lot. That could be the middle of the lane between the first and second row, all of the first row, possible excluding the 1st space, most of the second row on the east side, and northern most two spaces on the the east side of the second row.

There are several possibilities which I will go into.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

There are several possibilities about the position of the car.

1. It is not related to RFG's disappearance. RFG just parked in a convenient place, with intent of returning to it and going home.

2. RFG parked the Mini there in order not to make it obvious that it would be parked there overnight. He would be spending the night someplace and did not want the Mini seen at that location. He leaves it there with the intent of coming back.

3. RFG wanted the Mini to be found, but not too quickly.

Water Street has parallel parking; if he wanted the car spotted quickly after he was reported missing, park it along the street. Further, Lewisburg had a full time police force that patrolled. It is likely that they would have spotted it hours after bola was issued broadly.

If he, or anyone else, wanted it to be hidden for a while, pull it off the road in the country; the Mini might not be spotted for several days. A lot of the surrounding area does not have a police force; the PSP patrols rarely.

The only thing it might weaken a bit is suicide.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

The state policeman who reported the car as being Mr. Gricar's has commented on the prominent way it was positioned in the parking lot. Front row, next to Water St.

When you say " By the time Tony arrived, the car had been moved", do you mean removed for criminal processing or for some strange reason I've never known before, moved to the second row? I think I know, but it's important to the newcomers that we are precise if we can be.

Sorry, I missed your question.

When Tony Gricar and his brother heard that RFG was missing, they drove to Bellefonte, via I-80. While they were driving to Bellefonte when the call came in that the Mini was in Lewisburg. It was about 45-60 minutes beyond Bellefonte (east of Bellefonte). By the time they got to Lewisburg, the police had taken the Mini for processing. They took it to the PSP barracks in Milton.

Tony Gricar had been told the Mini was parked in the second row, but he never saw it.

 

[Cherry]

It isn't possible to hide your body after suicide. I feel that Ray G is alive, somewhere.
I would like to know if any female at work or in his circle of friends moved or quit her job just prior to him going missing.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

It isn't possible to hide your body after suicide. I feel that Ray G is alive, somewhere.
I would like to know if any female at work or in his circle of friends moved or quit her job just prior to him going missing.

No, including past girlfriends. The only possibility would a woman he was close to in the early 1980's, and it is basically because I can't track her. No one with her surname is on NamUs.

In theory, RFG could have committed suicide and the body is undiscovered. It's possible, but not too likely.

 

[Trackergd]

It isn't possible to hide your body after suicide. I feel that Ray G is alive, somewhere.
I would like to know if any female at work or in his circle of friends moved or quit her job just prior to him going missing.

I asked the same question a while back. My thoughts related to the mystery woman. I also considered an employee of the law firm who handled his affairs and county employees. No one seemed to have gone missing or relocated around the same time period.

 

[Trackergd]

My thoughts keep going back to Ray's demeanor in the days and hours prior to his going missing. Distracted pretty much sums it up. Visibly "off his game" to a degree. What rises to that level for a person in his profession? Reviewing the computer and hard drive over and over, the fact that he did google how to fry and hard drive and purchased special software to delete data give legs to the report of him "fiddling" with the PC while sitting on the bench. Again, what rises to that level? Are they related? I can't think of personal information surviving a hard drive data wipe that could be so damaging that removing the drive and tossing both in the river would be necessary to anyone other than someone with rampant paranoia. I am becoming increasingly convinced that another individual was involved and may have driven the mini over the bridge, turned around and driven back over, tossing the PC and a few seconds later, the drive, leaving the ash and the smell in the car.