PA PA - Ray Gricar, 59, Bellefonte, 15 April 2005 - #8

[J. J. in Phila]

Hi. I'm new here, but have looked through this thread with much fascination. I'm impressed with the mix of curiosity and intelligence displayed here. By way of disclosure, I'm a Penn State graduate ('90), who was in State College when Mr. Gricar was in office. While I was out of that part of the state when he disappeared, I was aware of the story, and some of my old roommates and I would mention it from time to time. When the whole terrible story about Jerry Sandusky broke with the Grand Jury report, I (only half-jokingly) sent them an e-mail entitled "Now we know what happened to Ray Gricar." While I don't know if the mystery behind his disappearance will ever be solved, I hope to actively follow your thoughts and observations. I don't know if I will be able to "bring anything to the table," but if I can, I will be grateful to share it here. I also saw the "Dateline" commercial earlier tonight. Perhaps the Sandusky case will bring further attention to Mr. Gricar's disappearance.

Welcome. I hope you like tilting at windmills.

Class of '85 by the way; I've been in Philadelphia since 1992, but I grew up in western and central Pennsylvania.

There has been a lot of technical discussions here over the last few days, which are eye opening.

Warning: I am a curmudgeon and I play devil's advocate a lot. That is because I can see flaws in every theory, even the ones I come up with.

 

[cj327]

JJ-
I recall before you broke down the different possible scenarios by percentages, based on everything you knew and your opinion (obviously).
While walkaway and suicide are clearly defined events (you either do it or you don't), have you even broken down foul play into probability categories such as:

-Walkaway followed by foul play (e.g., someone assisting him trying to take the large sum of money he was possibly squirreling away)
-Random violence (such as robbery by someone who did not know him)
-A non-walkaway scenario where he was meeting someone which then resulted in foul play.
-??

 

[J. J. in Phila]

JJ-
I recall before you broke down the different possible scenarios by percentages, based on everything you knew and your opinion (obviously).
While walkaway and suicide are clearly defined events (you either do it or you don't), have you even broken down foul play into probability categories such as:

-Walkaway followed by foul play (e.g., someone assisting him trying to take the large sum of money he was possibly squirreling away)
-Random violence (such as robbery by someone who did not know him)
-A non-walkaway scenario where he was meeting someone which then resulted in foul play.
-??

I think the third one is much more likely, but I don't have a percentage, except over half of the foul play possibility. I think he had something scheduled for Lewisburg that caused him to leave prior to letting the dog out.

Random violence would be a lot less likely, because it would be unlikely that the body would be hidden.

Hiring a helper would be a lot less likely, because he could never trust the helper to keep quiet. Even if the helper didn't kill him, the helper could go to the authorities and claim a reward.

There are also some legal problems with accumulating more than $10,000 in cash. It would create problems with RFG getting it and with the helper using it.

 

[Mamabear1963]

Coming in late...do we have a time line...one that we can compare to Sandusky's?

This is just too Bizarre!:waitasec:

 

[CJMAJORGIRL24]

Sandusky should be questioned on the vanishing of Mr. Gricar. Is this monster the reason Mr. Gricar vanished?

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Coming in late...do we have a time line...one that we can compare to Sandusky's?

This is just too Bizarre!:waitasec:

RFG disappeared on 4/15/05. He had dealt with Sandusk in May-June, 1998.

 

[Maxim]

In Session program at approx. 9:52 (12/13) this morning:

Sandusky's attorney, Joe Amandola, was telling that Sandusky had to return on a Friday night from his trip to Cleveland--to turn himself in on Saturday.

Wonder who Sandusky knows in Cleveland, and why he was there?

 

[CJMAJORGIRL24]

In Session program at approx. 9:52 (12/13) this morning:

Sandusky's attorney, Joe Amandola, was telling that Sandusky had to return on a Friday night from his trip to Cleveland--to turn himself in on Saturday.

Wonder who Sandusky knows in Cleveland, and why he was there?

Good question!

 

[J. J. in Phila]

In Session program at approx. 9:52 (12/13) this morning:

Sandusky's attorney, Joe Amandola, was telling that Sandusky had to return on a Friday night from his trip to Cleveland--to turn himself in on Saturday.

Wonder who Sandusky knows in Cleveland, and why he was there?

His son, Jon Sandusky. He's with the Browns, but I think he took a leave of absence when this started.

Sometimes trips to Cleveland are just trips to Cleveland.

 

[Maxim]

If foul play is involved, we are talking murder. If murder, there are no coincidences.

Suicide? No action to be taken.
Walk Away? Little action to be taken--simply prove it.
Foul Play/Murder? Much action to be taken.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

If foul play is involved, we are talking murder. If murder, there are no coincidences.

Suicide? No action to be taken.
Walk Away? Little action to be taken--simply prove it.
Foul Play/Murder? Much action to be taken.

Not necessarily, tough it would likely be murder. One possibility, and I mentioned it a while back, was that he was with a woman and had an accident or died of natural causes. She was someone who shouldn't have been with him, possibly married, or perhaps connected to a defendant. She, under that scenario, hid the body.

In late 2008-09 an ADA in the office, LM, resigned and it was found he was "sexting" a defendant's girlfriend, so it is not impossible. I think it's unlikely, but I can't rule it out entirely. It's under foul play, because it's criminal to dispose of a body that way, "Abuse of a Corpse."

I think that this is more likely than a mugging that went bad. Lewisburg is not known for muggings.

In a blog around the time of the disappearance, someone suggested that perhaps RFG was hit by a car, and his body was thrown by the impact. That also have a very low chance of explaining what happened, but it is not impossible. In most circumstances, it would be hit and run, and criminal, so that is under foul play as well.

If this were suicide, the action needed is finding the body.

 

[Maxim]

I'm not leaning toward the accidental or the suicide scenarios,

If this were suicide, the action needed is finding the body.

MO, finding the body will be happenstance--if suicide. Chances are slim that one of us will find the body.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I'm not leaning toward the accidental or the suicide scenarios,

Nor am I.

MO, finding the body will be happenstance--if suicide. Chances are slim that one of us will find the body.

We won't, but LE might.

 

[CJMAJORGIRL24]

If foul play is involved, we are talking murder. If murder, there are no coincidences.

Suicide? No action to be taken.
Walk Away? Little action to be taken--simply prove it.
Foul Play/Murder? Much action to be taken.

While I am just "learning" -I am an honor student...:blushing:..and have been taught that in cases like Mr. Gricar's there are no coincidences, period. I pray for his families sake that his case is solved.

 

[quixote]

Nor am I.




We won't, but LE might.

J. J. - As a fellow Pennsylvanian, one who has driven various ways up to and through Central PA, I feel as if there are many places where one could pretty much hide a body so that it would never be found, or at least not for a very long time. Lots of places for a living person to "disappear," and even more for one that is no longer with us. That complicates things even more. I'm not as educated on this case as the faithful posters here, but my "hunch" leans towards Mr. Gricar choosing to disappear, for reasons that we may never fully know. Oh, and I do have a lengthy history of tilting at windmills!!

 

[J. J. in Phila]

J. J. - As a fellow Pennsylvanian, one who has driven various ways up to and through Central PA, I feel as if there are many places where one could pretty much hide a body so that it would never be found, or at least not for a very long time. Lots of places for a living person to "disappear," and even more for one that is no longer with us. That complicates things even more. I'm not as educated on this case as the faithful posters here, but my "hunch" leans towards Mr. Gricar choosing to disappear, for reasons that we may never fully know. Oh, and I do have a lengthy history of tilting at windmills!!

I think voluntary departure is slightly more likely than foul play, but if I knew what LE checked, I might drop the odds on walkaway dramatically.

For me, the question is: If RFG walked away, how did he get out of Lewisburg? Not speculation, but actual evidence. I've yet to see that.

 

[CJMAJORGIRL24]

After a "lengthy" investigation-Mr. Gricar decided not to prosecute --in 1998. But Mr. Gricar's brother "supposedly" committed suicide in 1996

Then there's the suicide theory. Gricar's older brother, Roy, who struggled with depression and bipolar disorder, killed himself in 1996. Police found his car alongside the Great Miami River near Dayton, Ohio, and fished his body from the water days later.

http://articles.philly.com/2011-07-31/news/29835864_1_investigators-retirement-plans-ray-gricar/2

I have always wondered if Mr. Roy Gricar was killed to send a message to his "brother"..now I REALLY think that WAS a message...

 

[J. J. in Phila]

After a "lengthy" investigation-Mr. Gricar decided not to prosecute --in 1998. But Mr. Gricar's brother "supposedly" committed suicide in 1996

Then there's the suicide theory. Gricar's older brother, Roy, who struggled with depression and bipolar disorder, killed himself in 1996. Police found his car alongside the Great Miami River near Dayton, Ohio, and fished his body from the water days later.

http://articles.philly.com/2011-07-31/news/29835864_1_investigators-retirement-plans-ray-gricar/2

I have always wondered if Mr. Roy Gricar was killed to send a message to his "brother"..now I REALLY think that WAS a message...

The brother was suffering from severe depression.

 

[SeekingJana]

IF Sandusky is allowed to plea out a deal, then I think one of the provisions should be that he take AND PASS a polygraph regarding Ray Gricar and his disappearance. Otherwise, the deal's off the table and he's incarcerated. The sick old freak will decide to talk.:furious:

I believe there is a good possibility of a connection between what is still unfolding with Sandusky, his next door neighbor the PSU police chief and Ray Gricar's inveatigation into Sandusky. However, the variables are so great that I choose not to speculate on what or why.

 

[SeekingJana]

After a "lengthy" investigation-Mr. Gricar decided not to prosecute --in 1998. But Mr. Gricar's brother "supposedly" committed suicide in 1996

Then there's the suicide theory. Gricar's older brother, Roy, who struggled with depression and bipolar disorder, killed himself in 1996. Police found his car alongside the Great Miami River near Dayton, Ohio, and fished his body from the water days later.

http://articles.philly.com/2011-07-31/news/29835864_1_investigators-retirement-plans-ray-gricar/2

I have always wondered if Mr. Roy Gricar was killed to send a message to his "brother"..now I REALLY think that WAS a message...

CJMajor, are you taking a good solid foundation of Psych. courses? As a behavioral psychologist, I hope you and your classmates are.
In order to unravel criminal behavior, we have to understand human behavior in general.
ROy was at a VERY HIGH risk of suicide because he was Bi-Polar.
While his sons and his brother are also at a much greater risk of being bi-polar, we have no evidence that RAy had any bi-polar tendencies. Nor that ROy's sons are BP disordered. If one is, they would go near the top on my suspect list for murder. A manic person can " find" a wrong where none exists and strike out with almost super-human force. Impulse control is extremely diminished as well.( Usually, medication can stabilize moods, but user compliance is very variable over the long term).