POI: Michael Pak

[LINative13]

I never paid much attention to any of the maps or the significance anyone thinks the locations of the items might hold because on August 28th, 2011 mostly everything that wasn't tied down or buried was moved around by the tidal surge and winds of hurricane Irene. That so-called marsh where SG and her belongings were found has drainage pipes that connect directly to the Great South Bay. On a normal day you can watch the water levels rise and fall every six hours or so as the water enter/exits those pipes. When there is a full or new moon the heights of the tides are at the most extreme highs and lows. When it's April and again in September around the tide heights are the most extreme.

When a storm like hurricane Irene or Sandy comes through the area those drainage pipes see much more water flowing into the marsh than out of it. The depth of the water in many places was over 10 feet deep and everywhere that you see dry land (including where SG's remains were found were under two to three feet of windswept tidal water that flooded the marsh. To complicate matters worse as the storm approached, hit and then left the area the directions of the tropical storm force winds changed directions. The winds were from the south east, the east, the north east and then the north and eventually the northwest and west. It shook everything upside down and backwards. Yes it's possible that her personal items and her remains were stuck in the much and never moved once. I cannot see how that is possible.

Maybe everything, including SG's remains were planted there afterwards?

Does that explain how the black hawk helicopter missed SG's body?

When the SCPD decided to drain the marsh, it was no magic trick or marvel of engineering. All they had to to do was direct a water pump down one of the drainage pipes. And if you go back and read the fine print details about the searches you can hear in the pressers how the investigators state that they had "favorable tide conditions". That's because in December the water drains quicker during low tide phases out of the marsh due to the lack of live vegetation to slow down the drainage process. With the help of some pumps and the cleaning out of the drainage pipes they were able to lower the water levels by up to three feet less than what they were back when they conducted the search of the marsh the prior times. In May after SG went missing would have been still during one of the most extreme tide heights in that marsh.

So unless these clothes flowed in the drainpipe they would have had to flow through the brambles? Nothing is getting through that bramble without some friction. Friction that would rip clothing apart. Like a glacier moving.

Were her belongings placed there after things calmed down so to speak......possibly? Did MP throw all of her belongings out of his car window as he relinquished his search for SG that night and that is where they stayed? Possibly. If that was the case, why did SGs sister find a tiny little earing in JBs driveway and not clothes? Would a so called smart serial killer who has murdered and eluded capture like CPH leave a victims clothes by his house? Probably not. Doesnt seem so smart.

Is there another player in this whole thing down at OB? Probably so

ALL MOO except the clothing moving through the brambles.

 

[mcme]

That so-called marsh where SG and her belongings were found has drainage pipes that connect directly to the Great South Bay. On a normal day you can watch the water levels rise and fall every six hours or so as the water enter/exits those pipes.

ps149, this info here is not correct. the tides of the bay and inlet have no affect on the water level in that marsh. The few culverts in place are only to let water pass under the roads instead of over them, when and if the water reaches that level.

 

[LINative13]

ps149, this info here is not correct. the tides of the bay and inlet have no affect on the water level in that marsh. The few culverts in place are only to let water pass under the roads instead of over them, when and if the water reaches that level.

There is a current in that area. It may be very very slow but there is a current in there. Anyplace where water is present has a current. Even my swimming pool has a current. Gravity and the moon are amazing and are also consistent.

 

[To Kill a Mockingbird]

I started thinking about Shannan's last walk that night. I am trying to put myself in her shoes, trying to understand what was going through her mind, what she was possibly feeling and understanding.

Looking at the aerial photo that Seaslug44 provided, I think SG left GC's house and looped around close to the Oak Beach entrance and continued south on Anchor Way, past Barbara Brennan's home.

My first question to myself. Why when SG was at the gate house entrance did she not stay there? Or at least continue towards Robert Moses Parkway? Could it be she did not want to leave Oak Beach, could it be she felt there was some other place safe in Oak Beach?



If SG wanted to get to the parkway she was very close when she was by the gate house entrance. But no she continues south on Anchor Way. If SG wanted to cross the marsh, the entire east side of Anchor Way borders the marsh. She could have entered the marsh anywhere. But no she continues down southerly on Anchor Way past Barbara Brennan's home.

My second question to myself If MP was looking for SG, it would have been relatively easy for MP to find her on Anchor Way, why did he not?

I think that she assumed that MP was following her as she went down Anchor way.

Now SG has just passed Barbara Brennan's home and had to make a choice she either turns west onto The Bayou or turns east onto Larboard Ct.

From this point on nobody has officially admitted to seeing SG any more.

Since her clothes and body were located west of Anchor Way we are pretty safe in assuming that is the direction she went.


My third question is where was SG trying to get too?

She already passed the community's entrance, she already passed a short distance from the Parkway, she already passed the marsh and did not enter it, where was she trying to get to? Some place safe? To someone she knew? To some one who she felt would help her.

Now it gets interesting, SG has disappeared, nobody admits seeing her again.
We know aliens did not take her, so what possibly could have happened?
We know with time any drugs she had taken would be wearing off, so she could very well becoming more sober and clear-headed.


One scenario, is she makes an abrupt left turn and begins walking in the the marsh, after about 100 feet she removes cloths and continues walking North East (the longest way through the marsh) until she succumbs to the elements and dies.

This scenario has no criminal actions involved, and SG dying by natural causes. It just does not make sense to me though, because it does not explain why SG a) went down south on Anchor Way, and why she entered the marsh so far down Anchor Way.

Another scenario is SG trying to get to what she perceives as a 'safe house'. She is either caught likely past Barbara Brennan's by MP, or makes it all the way to the 'safe-house'.

My fourth question is where or what was this place of refuge SG was trying to get too?

Studying the map and photo's

*****I do not think it was SG's intention ever to enter or cross the marsh. She and her clothes ended up in the marsh against her will.

***** There was something holding hope on Larboard Way that drawing SG towards that area. Had she ever been on Larboard Ct. previously?

***** When MP returned with Alex Diaz to look for SG, how is it he ended up on Larboard searching for SG? There is no record of MP searching all the streets in Oak Beach, why would he go to Larboard when it was such a distance from Brewer's and Coletti's ? Could MP have known that SG went to Larboard, either because he saw her their or because he was told that fact?


In conclusion, I am creating theories based on what I think and see in the photo's. It has become clear to me that SG had a destination to go to that night. She could have stayed at Coletti's but left to go somewhere else.

I also feel SG never wanted to go into the marsh to escape.

MOO

johnny ray did the shannan run at 5am on may 1 last year
he showed 48 hours exactly what the conditions were
at that hour of the morning
48 hours filmed all of it
at the trial everyone will be crystal clear.

 

[WINDSOR]

johnny ray did the shannan run at 5am on may 1 last year
he showed 48 hours exactly what the conditions were
at that hour of the morning
48 hours filmed all of it
at the trial everyone will be crystal clear.


Does anybody know if a trial date has been set?

 

[WINDSOR]

Don't worry about the water flow in the marsh, it is irrelevant.

If you trace SG's movements she was going in specific directions, she was not wandering aimlessly, her journey ended somewhere south of BB's home.

The key point is that I firmly believe SG did not go into the marsh at all, at least on her own.

It makes no sense to believe SG veered off the Anchor Way/Hatch Way and entered the marsh south of BB's home, walked about 100 feet, then removed some clothing, then made almost a 90 degree right turn and began to traverse the marsh diagonally, the longest way across the marsh. There really is nothing in that direction that she could see as a refuge place that would draw her to go in that direction.

If SG was even walking at 2.0 mph, a pretty good speed in a marsh it would have taken her 10-15 minutes to traverse the diagonal distance. By that time the sun was coming up. SG could have rested a bit, looked up saw the tree line and walked the last 150 feet to the Highway.



Even if she was a drugged-up, mentally ill psycho, there is no way SG could or would have entered the marsh with her clothes and body ending up where they did.

I do need your help again though. I need to know at what time GC called 911, and what time BB called 911. It is my understanding that the GC call came first, but I have no proof. Can anybody help me out.

Thanks again

MOO

 

[Tugela]

If the marsh had been under water at some point (not necessarily on that day, but at some later date), the body may have have floated some distance, which could explain why the body was separate from the other items (which didn't float).

People are assuming that she was wearing these clothes that were found (such as jeans). She may not have been. If she wasn't wearing them in the first place she would not have needed to take them off, they could simply have been dropped with everything else she was carrying when she got mired in the muck.

There are any number of reasonable explanations for why the body and items were separated.

 

[WINDSOR]

If the marsh had been under water at some point (not necessarily on that day, but at some later date), the body may have have floated some distance, which could explain why the body was separate from the other items (which didn't float).

People are assuming that she was wearing these clothes that were found (such as jeans). She may not have been. If she wasn't wearing them in the first place she would not have needed to take them off, they could simply have been dropped with everything else she was carrying when she got mired in the muck.

There are any number of reasonable explanations for why the body and items were separated.

Yes there are a number of reasonable explanations but only one correct one for this case. As in airplane crashes there are a number of explanations but through research and investigation oftentimes the correct explanation is discovered.

If for a minute one disregards the existence of the clothing drop, do other facts change? No.

I used the clothing location in my analysis to deduce where SG would have to enter the marsh. If her clothes were not there, her entry point to the marsh would not have been much different, as the critical fact was SG's passing Barbara Brennan's home and Barbara noticing SG and calling 911.

The fact the clothes were separated from the body is significant, less significant is the final location of the clothes.

Regarding the body floating, which would require a significant amount of water depth (2-3 feet?) would it not follow that as the water drained out of the marsh the body would end up in a lower point in the marsh? Was SG's remains not found on a higher point in the marsh? Does water flow uphill?

MOO

 

[Justiceforever]

If the winds are high enough the water can flow uphill as in the case of reverse waterfalls. So were the winds ever high enough in the area? Just answering the question, does water flow uphill. I don't presume to be an expert btw ANY strech of the imagination. In fact I usually tune out when it comes to this specific disscussion because I have no clue half the time WTF anyone is talking about when it comes to tides and currents and where the body was versus where it "should" have been based on conditions. Zzzzzz! Howwver I remembered reading about water flowing uphill. So there it is for whatever it's worth.

 

[Tugela]

It is not a case of water flowing uphill, it is a marsh, so water will flow back and forth depending on condtions. For water to flow out it first has to flow in. The wind will also blow floating ojects about.

What happens is that there are more snags at higher levels (due to it being shallower and with more stuff sticking out) so floating objects will tend to get stuck at the high level mark. Go walk on any beach and see where the debris accumulates, and you will see.

 

[deedee21]

There was talk at an earlier date about the camera on the gate house. It takes pics of plates only. What about the camera mounted on lightpost? The one facing the mailboxes. Is anyones house in view of that camera? How wide of an angle shot does tht one have? A lady goes screaming through a neighborhood in the wee hours of the morning and noone went to the camera to see what the hell went on in our exclusive gated community. If a poster goes to Oak Beach then check it out.

 

[deedee21]

The lightpost has two cameras mounted to it. If a screaming woman dosent peak someones interesr, what does?

 

[LINative13]

I've asked before....does anyone know if those tapes have disappeared before or after this incident? Not that it means anything, just curious.

 

[LINative13]

A girl rus away, a guy was seen chasing her, she ends up dead. Hmmm.

 

[LR1]

A Girl who has ran away b4 runs away, her driver was seen trying to gather her up but he failed to do so. She ends up dead. ummmhmmm.

 

[WINDSOR]

I've asked before....does anyone know if those tapes have disappeared before or after this incident? Not that it means anything, just curious.

There are no tapes of that night.

It is my understanding that much time had expired before anybody cared to see what the tapes showed. The tapes were accidentally (or not) lost, taped over or deleted. They just do not exist anymore.

Nobody seems to know what happened, nobody seems to know who had access to to the tapes, or recording device. Strange.

If you live in a gated community, do you think the security cameras offer any security?

MOO

 

[WINDSOR]

A Girl who has ran away b4 runs away, her driver was seen trying to gather her up but he failed to do so. She ends up dead. ummmhmmm.

Happens all the time, what are you gonna do?

 

[NoviceSleuth]

There are no tapes of that night.

It is my understanding that much time had expired before anybody cared to see what the tapes showed. The tapes were accidentally (or not) lost, taped over or deleted. They just do not exist anymore.

Nobody seems to know what happened, nobody seems to know who had access to to the tapes, or recording device. Strange.

If you live in a gated community, do you think the security cameras offer any security?

MOO

IIRC - Didn't LE take the hard drive? Does anyone know what info can be taken off of it? I don't remember hearing anything more about it.:waitasec:

 

[ps149]

A girl rus away, a guy was seen chasing her, she ends up dead. Hmmm.

A girl calls 911 and begs for help because someone is trying to kill her, the girl runs away, one of the guys drives off after her, the girl ends up dead, the guy leaves really quickly before the police can get there. Hmmm.

How difficult is this case to solve?

 

[Tugela]

The problem was that the body was found some distance from were her belongings were. It doesn't seem very likely that someone would kill her there, then retrieve the body and go all the way around to dump it on the other side of the swamp where it is still in the same general location.

If someone local killed her, there would be a big incentive to dump the body far from where they lived.

If MP did it, again, he would have a big incentive to dump the body far away. And in any case, why would he leave stuff behind at point different from where the body was if he didn't have a chance to move everything right away?

It does not seem reasonable.

The only reasonable explanation is that she entered the swamp, got stuck or snagged at one point, dropped her belongings there and continued trying to find a way out until eventually succumbing. I don't know about LI, but where I come from being bitten by a snake and succumbing to that would be a pretty dam good possibility in a swamp.

Maybe she drowned, maybe she was high and ODed. There is no reported evidence to support foul play however.