Retrieving wreckage from AirAsia Flight To Singapore- no survivors recovered #3

  • #461
And then dropped 13.35000 feet in a little over 2 seconds is that correct? That g-force has to be incredible. And I don't know what that would do to the oxygen inside the plane.

JMO's

No wonder the bottom of the fuselage appears to be gone, and a wing ripped off. That landing had to be an incredibly hard landing. I wonder if the bottom of the fuselage is still there buried in the silt, or if it has pancaked flat, or if it is just gone.
 
  • #462
I think what you're talking about is "time of useful consciousness". That depends on whether or not the plane was still pressurized, or whether the crew/ passengers were exposed to the altitude, and if there was a rapid decompression. (And it seems they were losing altitude quickly after the brief climb, so the effects of altitude hypoxia may not have been the same as the chart, which is TUC at sustained altitudes.)

When I was an Air Force Flight Nurse, we trained in the hypobaric (altitude) chamber periodically to assess and learn our own responses to hypoxia at various simulated sustained altitudes. One of the most interesting things is how the rods and cones in your eyes respond first to the lower partial pressure of oxygen-- we trained with a "color wheel" and dropped our masks to watch the colors "gray out" at various altitudes, like the colors becoming a black and white photo. We also had to do various tasks, including manipulating toys and other training objects, write, etc.

Here is a wiki discussion of TUC (time of useful consciousness), with a table that correlates TUC/ hypoxia and altitude.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_of_useful_consciousness

However, you also have to factor in the g-forces everyone on the plane was experiencing during the plummet, as well as the attitude of the plane, trauma, panic, etc. If the fall was chaotic, and if most were conscious, just trying to manage your body and limbs is challenging. In the Pacific theater (I was stationed in Japan), we sometimes had to fly between or around bad storms to pick up or deliver an "urgent" patient. A few of the storms were particularly bad. In some of the worst turbulence and "drops", the only thing holding me in the seat was my seat belt. I was helpless to manage my head, neck, arms, and legs. I didn't like that kind of turbulence very much-- sometimes we would hear the "pull up" alarm going off in the C-9 cockpit about 6 feet away. That always made me worried.

Thank you for taking the time to decipher and answer what i was trying to ask.
Your posts are always so easy to understand and is very much appreciated in this thread as well as all the threads in which you participate.

I really don't know what I'm talking about since I've never been on a plane. With the missing MAS370, there was speculation that the plane may have ascended to a high altitude to starve a fire but that would have also incapacitated passengers with a lack of oxygen. So in my lame brain thinking, I thought the sudden updraft of a plane would do the same thing, leaving the passengers unconscious when the plane finally crashed.
 
  • #463
WOW, how fascinating. If I had my day again, I would do nursing and join Air Ambulance. Sounds like a noble and worthy career. Pull up, and terrain terrain ain't what you want to here !!!

Our main ACs were the C-9 Nightingales (we had 3 at Yokota), which had some kind of special exemption to be allowed to fly long haul overwater with "only" 2 engines. We could "make it" to Hickam AFB, HI from Yokota (Tokyo area) if we had no other military "heavy" available, but had to stop for gas at Wake Island, adding a lot of time to the mission. They have since retired the C-9s. We mostly used C-141s and C-5s for long haul, if available, and C-130s also. The C-17 was just coming online when I got out.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McDonnell_Douglas_C-9 (I actually have a lot of hours in 10974, the first pic in the wiki article! It was one of our C-9s at Yokota. It still has "MAC" on the tail in the pic, which predates the AMC, so that's a very old pic.)

As far as the passengers and crew being conscious or unconscious, I think we would all like to hold onto the idea that they were unconscious for the most terrifying parts of the plummet and ditch. But sadly and disturbingly, it seems that it's possible, or pretty likely, that a number of them were conscious. The bodies we have heard about are intact. And the slide deployment makes you think someone deployed it intentionally, because I don't think those activate on impact-- and they would be shredded/ torn in the wreckage of a serious breakup. I think I read upthread that some of the people whose bodies were recovered were seated in the main fuselage (not the aft section) adding to speculation that they may have unbelted at some point in the crash.

The whole thing is so terrifying and sad. I hope they can recover most of the bodies, for the families.
 
  • #464
I am guessing that everyone would have been conscious until impact, I am afraid. Unless the plane suddenly decompressed at altitude (which I don't think happened, did it? or at least we don't know yet) I don't see why they would not be conscious. As for the survival of impact, I think we may never know. The impact was strong enough to sheer off the nose and tail. We don't know the direction of impact yet, ie nose first, belly landing, or like AF 447 dropped flat, floor first, onto the surface. If the cabin doors were armed, which they would have been in flight, anything that would cause a door to come open/off would trigger the slide to deploy I believe. So I don't think the inflated slide points one way or the other. Sadly, my guess (and its only a guess) is that the impact killed most if not all, and any that survived, seriously injured and possibly unconscious, probably drowned in minutes. In a rough see in the middle of a storm, even had the pilots regained control, a successful water landing wouldnt even really be possible due to the rough seas/waves. Very sad. I am very curious as to what set this tragedy in motion, why the sudden climb. I am suspecting some sort of mechanical/instrument malfunction that the crew was unable to diagnose and deal with soon enough to save the aircraft. Perhaps something similar to AF447. Hopefully the cause is found and corrected. The Airbus A320 is a real workhorse and I believe is second only to the 737 in numbers in the air. I certainly wouldn't have any concerns about flying on one, but clearly something went wrong here.
 
  • #465
Our main ACs were the C-9 Nightingales (we had 3 at Yokota), which had some kind of special exemption to be allowed to fly long haul overwater with "only" 2 engines. We could "make it" to Hickam AFB, HI from Yokota (Tokyo area) if we had no other military "heavy" available, but had to stop for gas at Wake Island, adding a lot of time to the mission. They have since retired the C-9s. We mostly used C-141s and C-5s for long haul, if available, and C-130s also. The C-17 was just coming online when I got out.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McDonnell_Douglas_C-9 (I actually have a lot of hours in 10974, the first pic in the wiki article! It was one of our C-9s at Yokota. It still has "MAC" on the tail in the pic, which predates the AMC, so that's a very old pic.)

As far as the passengers and crew being conscious or unconscious, I think we would all like to hold onto the idea that they were unconscious for the most terrifying parts of the plummet and ditch. But sadly and disturbingly, it seems that it's possible, or pretty likely, that a number of them were conscious. The bodies we have heard about are intact. And the slide deployment makes you think someone deployed it intentionally, because I don't think those activate on impact-- and they would be shredded/ torn in the wreckage of a serious breakup. I think I read upthread that some of the people whose bodies were recovered were seated in the main fuselage (not the aft section) adding to speculation that they may have unbelted at some point in the crash.

The whole thing is so terrifying and sad. I hope they can recover most of the bodies, for the families.

Thank you very much KZ - interesting reading. Also according to our Airbus LAME he confirmed the same regarding the deployment of the slide.
 
  • #466
"Rear Adm. Widodo, commander of the Indonesian Navy’s western fleet, told journalists aboard the naval ship Banda Aceh, which is involved in the search operations off the southern coast of Borneo Island, said that six bodies were recovered Thursday, some of which were not intact.

“There are many bodies in the fuselage,” he said, declining to give an estimate.

Admiral Widodo, who goes by one name, said that the six bodies recovered Thursday were those of two women and four men.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/23/world/asia/airasia-plane.html?_r=0

New article and information.
 
  • #467
And then dropped 13.35000 feet in a little over 2 seconds is that correct? That g-force has to be incredible. And I don't know what that would do to the oxygen inside the plane.

JMO's
BBM

One can only pray that it rendered the passengers unconscious, at the least, to spare them them being aware when the plane hit the water.

Ever since the details of the black boxes were released with the comparison that the maneuver the pilot attempted was akin to a fighter jet, I cannot help but wonder what the pilot thought he was doing. Did he not know this aircraft could not sustain such a steep climb?

Before the black boxes were recovered I had defended his actions as an attempt to correct a stall that may have been caused by some other source. Now I believe he caused the stall and mechanical failure was not involved.

MOO
 
  • #468
Here is a larger image of the chart in the tweet that Snoods posted upthread. Shows the flight and it's ascent. Bit hard to read, but they have posted the recorded times too.

307yhoy.jpg


s6k9jb.png



"From the above chart, we can see that AirAsia ascended from an altitude of 32,100 feet to an altitude of 37,350 feet: it gained 5,250 feet in just 41.4211 seconds."

http://www.science20.com/the_chatte...re_bodies_retrieved_more_data_released-152504


If the aircraft followed the path depicted in the chart, interesting as it appears the pilots were desperately fighting for some form of control. To my thinking, they got some control but perhaps a bit too late to prevent the destruction witnessed on sections already retrieved (that being the bottom section ripped away i.e. the tail section).
 
  • #469
BBM

One can only pray that it rendered the passengers unconscious, at the least, to spare them them being aware when the plane hit the water.

Ever since the details of the black boxes were released with the comparison that the maneuver the pilot attempted was akin to a fighter jet, I cannot help but wonder what the pilot thought he was doing. Did he not know this aircraft could not sustain such a steep climb?

Before the black boxes were recovered I had defended his actions as an attempt to correct a stall that may have been caused by some other source. Now I believe he caused the stall and mechanical failure was not involved.

MOO


BBM

I don't believe the pilots had any choice over the ascent rate of this plane, none at all. Those were some serious storms with ceilings in excess of 53,000 feet - that equals potentially over powering storms.
 
  • #470
I was having a hard time understanding what the climbing speed had to do with things. I haven't read the all the posts (in this thread) so I'm not sure if this was mentioned but I thought some of you might find it useful: http://www.cnn.com/2015/01/20/asia/airasia-disaster-flight-speed/


If the plane was climbing at 6,000 feet per minute, Schiavo said, numerous alarms would have sounded in the cockpit. But if the aircraft got caught in an updraft, she said, the pilots might not have been aware at first of why it was climbing so quickly when they weren't inputting that into the controls.

Picture your speedometer showing your car accelerating when your foot isn't pressing on the gas pedal.

"The pilots would have had control of the plane," she said, "but may not have even realized what was occurring because of the confusing readings from the aircraft."

Also, I've found this twitter account useful: https://twitter.com/MarkHanrahan9

[video=twitter;558439395577962496]https://twitter.com/MarkHanrahan9/status/558439395577962496[/video]
 
  • #471
BBM

I don't believe the pilots had any choice over the ascent rate of this plane, none at all. Those were some serious storms with ceilings in excess of 53,000 feet - that equals potentially over powering storms.
Since we know other commercial aircraft were flying in the same area, perhaps my question should be, are storm cells that isolated that the other aircraft managed to fly around them unhindered while this one was caught with no way out except to attempt such a steep climb?

MOO
 
  • #472
Since we know other commercial aircraft were flying in the same area, perhaps my question should be, are storm cells that isolated that the other aircraft managed to fly around them unhindered while this one was caught with no way out except to attempt such a steep climb?

MOO

My knowledge of this stuff is very limited but if you check out the link I posted I think it may help answer your question. From my understanding of this article and a few others I have read, the pilots would have entered in the level they wanted to climb to and may have lost control (or at least to a degree) as a wind gust sped up the ascent. The words that have been used as "abnormal" or "unusually fast" etc. therefore imply that the weather affected the speed rather than an operator error...

If you're wondering about operator error while avoiding speculating or pointing fingers the explanation is in how the weather played a role. I did read somewhere that one of the pilots used to fly fighter jets which are capable and more likely to fly at this speed, which has been reported as unusual for commercial craft... which may cause people to speculate operator error in that the pilot didn't realize it wasn't appropriate for commercial flights... and that doesn't seem to be the case.

It's hard to attempt to explain this knowing so little but what I've gathered is that ascent speed depends on cruising speed (some talk about trade-off?) and then whatever the engine can help out with, and that the speeds depend on the air density and basically... the plane couldn't have ascended that fast (Based on engine and cruising speed) without the "help" of a wind/current/draft (no idea what it's called).

[video]http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/how-did-weather-affect-airasia-flight/vi-BBhkmfZ?refvid=BBhbdtX[/video]

EDIT//


"The plane ascended suddenly, with a speed that was above the normal speed limit, and then it went up," Transportation Minister Ignasius Jonan told reporters...


At one point, the plane was climbing at a speed of 6,000 feet per minute, Jonan said.

A fighter jet like the F/A-18 Super Hornet can climb as fast as 30,000 feet per minute. But commercial jets are designed to ascend at a much slower rate.

The latest data show the AirAsia plane, an Airbus A320, was climbing at a rate twice as fast as it "could and should do on its own," CNN aviation analyst Mary Schiavo said.

"I think that means there was a tremendous amount of winds and weather," she said.
CNN LINK

This answer provides a good perspective for those of us who have little knowledge on the subject

The Airbus 320 maximum possible climb rate is supposed to be 3,000 feet/minute, and it now appears it actually climbed at 8,000 feet/minute. It sounds more likely that the plane was pull[ed] up by a huge updraft ... An AirAsia pilot said the normal rate of climb of an A320 jet is between 1,000 feet per minute and 1,200. (Link)
 
  • #473
My knowledge of this stuff is very limited but if you check out the link I posted I think it may help answer your question. From my understanding of this article and a few others I have read, the pilots would have entered in the level they wanted to climb to and may have lost control (or at least to a degree) as a wind gust sped up the ascent. The words that have been used as "abnormal" or "unusually fast" etc. therefore imply that the weather affected the speed rather than an operator error...



If you're wondering about operator error while avoiding speculating or pointing fingers the explanation is in how the weather played a role. I did read somewhere that one of the pilots used to fly fighter jets which are capable and more likely to fly at this speed, which has been reported as unusual for commercial craft... which may cause people to speculate operator error in that the pilot didn't realize it wasn't appropriate for commercial flights... and that doesn't seem to be the case.

It's hard to attempt to explain this knowing so little but what I've gathered is that ascent speed depends on cruising speed (some talk about trade-off?) and then whatever the engine can help out with, and that the speeds depend on the air density and basically... the plane couldn't have ascended that fast (Based on engine and cruising speed) without the "help" of a wind/current/draft (no idea what it's called).

If someone else posts a more accurate/technical description I will remove this post.... in the mean time I'll try to find supporting articles
Thank you for the explanation. As stated previously, I had not put any blame onto the pilot, and still do not wish to. It is much clearer now how this could have occurred, perhaps similar to someone completely losing control of their car while driving on black ice, or in a storm, etc.

MOO
 
  • #474
  • #475
I didn't see your previous post and am mostly a lurker... but I know not to point fingers, however, it is difficult in this case because a lot of experts are reporting that bad weather, alone, could not have caused this accident. But, IMO, the keyword in developing a better understanding is "alone".

Link: BBC, "AirAsia QZ8501: Does bad weather cause plane crashes?"

Investigator Nurcahyo Utomo was quoted as saying the crash team was looking at possible plane damage and human factors.

The reference to human factors is shorthand for how the pilots were prepared by AirAsia, which is responsible for their competency and actions, for an ‘upset’ or ‘loss of control’ situation.
Link: "AirAsia crash details raise issues over training and state of jet"

So, I guess the question is; if not bad weather alone, what are the other factors?

It sounds like it's pretty normal/usual/common for pilots to request a change in altitude to avoid weather... and that the reason for avoiding can be as simple as less turbulence/a more comfortable ride for passengers...

Suggestions that air-traffic control should have immediately accommodated the AirAsia pilots’ request for an altitude change misinterpret aviation protocols. An aircraft captain can always – in an emergency – change course or altitude and, if pilots declare an immediate need for safety reasons to air-traffic control, they will be given priority.

However, routine requests for deviations are accommodated only if they won’t create a potential collision conflict with other flights in the area.
Link: The Globe and Mail, "AirAsia recovery to focus on bodies, black boxes in search for answers"

Theoretically, the plane may have began to climb, got caught up in this wind (which sped it up), and then two things may have happened next; (1) the readings might have not been accurate OR they may have been accurate and the pilots may have been trying to interpret them (why they suddenly were going so fast?) and (2) it sounds like ice build up may have caused the plane to "stall"

..so sort of a combination of things and since it all happened SO fast it would have been extremely difficult for the pilots to react (see timeline below).

Also there articles are popping up regarding a growing concern that (commercial) pilots over-rely on autopilot.

An abnormal climb rate, possible pre-existing damage to the jet, and questions about ‘upset’ training and pilot standards are all emerging as considerations in the AirAsia disaster that killed 162 people last month when an A320 fell or dived out of control into the Java Sea.

Link: AirAsia crash details raise issues over training and state of jet

Timeline:
[video=twitter;558124439498670080]https://twitter.com/CurtisSChin/status/558124439498670080[/video]
 
  • #476
Here is the information regarding the speed relative to fighter jets...

The captain, Iriyanto, an Indonesian who uses only one name, was a former Indonesian air-force fighter pilot with more than 20,537 flying hours, of which 6,100 were on Indonesia AirAsia Airbus A320s. (Link)

Doomed AirAsia Flight 8501 streaked upward at fighter-jet speeds before suddenly plunging, vanishing from radar and plummeting into the Java Sea, Indonesian Transportation Minister Ignasius Jonan said Tuesday.

Jonan, speaking at an Indonesian parliament transportation hearing, said the average speed of a climbing commercial jet is 1,000 to 2,000 feet per minute. He did not say why the Airbus A320-300 would have suddenly climbed at a rate of 6,000 feet per minute, as radar data showed.

Such rapid ascents can cause commercial jets to stall.

"It is not normal to climb like that," Jonan said. "It can only be done by a fighter jet." (Link)

Another interesting piece of information I found was the seating plan relative to bodies recovered. While it hasn't been updated it is still interesting to note that the bodies recovered thus far were not necessarily seated in the same area (ie. not people close to the emergency exits or in a certain section of the plane that perhaps broke apart)

[video=twitter;556507439613628416]https://twitter.com/moveitsoph/status/556507439613628416[/video]
 
  • #477
Not knowing most of the information, just having flight maps & knowing the altitude, wreckage, all that I've learned here from experts & the deaths of family members, sadly...the denial of climbing by air traffic control to QZ8501, bothers me. There, I said it out loud. Any experts to inform? tia
 
  • #478
“It was very dark, visibility was very limited so our diving teams could not enter,” said Rear Admiral Widodo, an Indonesian navy commander, predicting, however, that they could “evacuate all the bodies from there.”

The navy official further said the rescue workers were expected to attach giant air bags to the fuselage to lift it to the surface by Friday.

http://en.apa.az/xeber_divers_recover_6_more_bodies_near_airasi_222071.html


Perhaps they are planning to retrieve the people in the fuselage before they try to lift it? Bit hard to tell if that is what this navy official is saying.

It is now 4:30pm in the area. Hopefully we will get some more news later tonight.
 
  • #479
Icing did not cause plane to crash, says chief investigator quoted in article below. So is it a possibility the pilots may have tried to climb above some severe turbulence, although the control tower instructed them not to? Interesting article, also touching on the survivability of passengers.

Flight QZ8501 climbed steeply very rapidly but its crash was not due to icing, said Mr Tatang Kurniadi, the chief of the agency investigating the accident, in debunking an earlier suggestion.

"No similarity with Air France 447. No indication (of icing)," Mr Tatang, who heads the National Transportation Safety Committee, said yesterday during a discussion on aviation safety with foreign journalists.

Former pilot Sardjono Jhony said it was not normal, though possible, to climb very rapidly at rates of 6,000 ft per minute or more. "It is possible to have a rate of climb of 6,000 ft per minute if you are in severe turbulence, and based on what (AirAsia pilots) are asking before they lost contact... that they want to change altitude, I believe at that level, they are experiencing severe turbulence and that's why they are not asking to go left or right to avoid it," he said.

He also rejected speculation that passengers could have survived as the plane could have landed on water before sinking. "A stall was what happened, it is not what caused (the crash)... Does it make a difference to the survivability of this accident? If we look at the wreckage, we see the tail has been ripped off and you see extensive damage. It is not survivable in my opinion."

See more at: http://www.straitstimes.com/the-big...t-cause-plane-crash-says#sthash.M9VCAZ9q.dpuf
 
  • #480
Divers Enter Crashed Airasia Plane's Fuselage for First Time

"Today we have evacuated six bodies from inside the fuselage," Supriyadi said. "Some other bodies are still there but their position among other debris made it difficult for our divers."

A total of 65 bodies have now been recovered from AirAsia Flight 8501 ......

http://www.newindianexpress.com/wor...-for-First-Time/2015/01/23/article2633657.ece


Earlier articles from Friday are indicating that they retrieved 4 of the people outside the fuselage among the debris, so presumably 2 are from inside - but a mass of cables and debris are preventing them from getting further into the fuselage.
 

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