MAR 8, 2022
Why Establishing a No-Fly Zone Over Ukraine Would Be Very Dangerous and Costly (msn.com)
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Since Feb. 28,
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has pleaded with the U.S. and its allies for a no-fly zone. On Sunday he reported that the city of Vinnytsia was attacked by eight missiles from Russian troops. “We repeat every day: ‘Close the sky over Ukraine!’” the Ukrainian leader said. “Close it for all Russian missiles, Russian combat aircraft, for all these terrorists. Make a humanitarian air zone—without rockets, without air bombs.”
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... A no-fly zone would put U.S. and other NATO pilots in a position of shooting down Russian planes and helicopters, and likely firing on ground forces. Experts warn such action
risks escalating the conflict dramatically—into cataclysmic nuclear war, at worst. The Pentagon has repeatedly dismissed calls for establishing a no-fly zone, citing President Joe Biden’s insistence that no combat forces will be sent to Ukraine.
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The U.S. and its allies have been bolstering Ukraine’s military firepower to aid in the fight against Russia. A senior U.S. official reported to
CNN that U.S. and NATO member-states deployed 17,000 anti-tank missiles and 2,000 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine. ...
However, many military analysts fear that Ukraine’s tough resistance will eventually crumble under the might of Russia’s much larger military—which is among the most formidable in the world. Russia has been doubling down on military modernization since 2008. The latest data from the
2022 Military Balance Report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, reports that Moscow has more than 900,000 troops, while Kyiv has 196,000 active military personnel. IISS indicates that the Russia air force has some 1,172 combat-capable aircraft, while Ukraine has just 172.
... Leaders in Ukraine have pleaded for the U.S. or allies to impose a no-fly zone in Ukraine to protect civilians from Russian airstrikes.
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What would it take to establish a no-fly zone in Ukraine?
Top of the line American fighter jets, such as the F-22 Raptor, the F-35 Lightning II, and F-15 Eagle, would need to be sent into the warzone all day and night, along with aerial refueling planes. Ground crews would have to be stationed nearby. Electronic attack aircraft would presumably be sent in as well to disrupt and jam Russian radars to avoid detection and targeting.
Benard also says that no-fly zones only work if the militaries of the U.S. and NATO allies are willing to aggressively enforce them. “This means NATO would need to be ready to shoot down Russian planes that violate the no-fly zone,” he said.
That’s a prospect that NATO and the Soviet Union spent decades trying to avoid. While Russia may have a smaller military than its communist predecessor, it still controls the largest nuclear arsenal in the world.
Additionally, suppressing Russian air power would require massive numbers of planes and SAM missiles. While the U.S. Air Force is the largest in the world, with more than 2,200 fighters, bombers, and attack aircraft, European air forces are considerably smaller. The U.K.’s Royal Air Force has 234 combat-capable aircraft, while the air force of Poland, a NATO member that borders Ukraine, has 94.
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