Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #2

[OptimusLime]

Sometimes when someone wants to get rid of someone they get a professional to do it, and often they are never found. In cases without a body it is very difficult to convict someone.

IMO

Not necessarily, they do convictions now without body, DNA, forensic accounting, and enough evidence- up to the jury!

 

[Deleted member 293720]

Would VICPOL go hard if this were the first case? Or would this be more likely if the perpetrator reoffends?

I understand Sissy Austin's attack was in close proximity but unsure at this stage if VICPOL consider the two cases linked. I think if they did then there would be warnings and curfews issued.

And a sketch of a person that has been seen lurking around in the bush, but nothing. The police don't seem to be too interested in this scenario

 

[DK007]

I did read somewhere early on that he went searching for her.

Yes, I too read the same MM went looking for SM

 

[Black-Cat]

Not necessarily, they do convictions now without body, DNA, forensic accounting, and enough evidence- up to the jury!

Yes they do but it is much harder to convict without a body

 

[DK007]

Yes they do but it is much harder to convict without a body

Depends... In the case of Lynette Joy Dawson, her body was never found and after decades her husband Chris Dawson was finally charged with her murder

 

[solari]

pretty sure professionals are not thick on the ground in Ballarat

Ballarat is pretty much a country town still.

Unfortunately you probably wouldn't be wise to deeply believe that... To keep in line with WS rules I won't mention other cases but I've seen my share over the years, I know the area well and it's surrounds, grew up in country Vic. A lot of stuff happens, a lot of stuff that if your not exposed to/catch wind of or not actively paying attention and following the threads you won't have any clue it's happening in your own backyard. Jmo.
Not saying the suggested theory has any substance though, just giving my thoughts and experience on the country town comment.
It's a very large country town and densely populated around the suburbs of the cbd, holding about 1/10th of Victoria's rural population, very close to Melbourne which holds 5/6th of Victoria's population, stuff like the aforementioned theory happens in Melbourne, happens in the sticks, and happens in large regional cities. Doesn't have to be a "professional" hit person, non professional clumsy hits have a history in this country.

 

[Awakening]

I think Sm made it out of her driveway but she never made it to the forest area where she runs. I’m beginning to think she was abducted shortly after she left home on her way to the forest by a stalker either known or unbeknown to her.

As for the phone pings and ph being turned on and off, I think it was the crime playing out in real time and the perpetrator/ or perpetrator’s trying to work out what to do .. IMOO

I’m not convinced she left or at least got very far.

I think the CCTV still is the last “someone” saw her.

The property is large as are the surrounding ones so it’s possible someone/s was lurking and waited until she came to the end of the driveway, out of the view of cctv.

She’s also being described as strong, tough, the boss, so it’s possible she confronted such a person.

 

[BreakingNews]

I understand all this, but a normal statement would be .. The daughter was the last person to see her, or her husband was the last person to see her, etc... Which is then relayed back to the Media. The fact that police have not made a lot of recent requests from the public, suggests they are following some strong leads. I am hopeful this will be solved soon

Very vague info provided. Leaves it open to huge speculations and theories.

 

[inkpink]

What if the still picture of SM is actually her returning from her walk/run.

Maybe she took the dog and that is why she has the poo bag.

When going for a walk/run she might leave from a different area around the house but returns through the front.

 

[OptimusLime]

Perhaps, but Melbourne is only 50 minutes away

Absolutely agree, fyi you hit nail on head re professionals, I'm leaning towards this theory

 

[Poirot's niece]

so many questions!

I would love to know if she left on foot or in a car. Im guessing it was on foot, in which case why didn't the police dogs track her?

If she left on foot I wonder if she called in somewhere on her way to the forest, and never left, but that would've been tracked by the dogs.

This is such a weird disappearance. There is still a possibility she's alive and well although I doubt she would cause her kids that level of pain.

Were the dogs brought in the first 2 days? Scent fades. Cadaver dogs can be more effective than search and rescue dogs. I'm not an expert in these matters, just casual reading.
I think its possible she is still alive, she may be held somewhere against her will.
Due to lack of sightings it seems most likely she was lured or forced in to a vehicle very close to home.

 

[Poirot's niece]

Absolutely agree, fyi you hit nail on head re professionals, I'm leaning towards this theory

It points this way as its so neat and (from whats publicly known) to be with no trace. Not hard to throw a phone out a car window to hamper the accuracy of a search. An opportunistic crime/accident is so unlikely to leave little evidence. Its obviously possible, but so low on the likelihood scale.

 

[whitelilac]

IF a professional hit might be involved here, I hope police are investigating money trails, withdrawals, etc of any clients, relatives, connections, including whoever had that AVO.
Personally, I think someone has been very lucky......so far.

 

[SLouTh]

Were the dogs brought in the first 2 days? Scent fades.

Dogs were brought in early … there are images of them at forest trails.

We would have to search for images to see if they were used at the house / driveway ?

I think it’s possible she is still alive, she may be held somewhere against her will.

I think that may have been the plan ..but I think she may have fought back hard, resulting in her possible demise …

Due to lack of sightings it seems most likely she was lured or forced in to a vehicle very close to home.

I also think this has happened … maybe even in the lane …. ???

When the Police said they don’t know which way Sam went …. IMO, they saw her enter the lane from the driveway CCTV … but don’t know which way she went onto Eureka Street ??? Left or Right?? She may not have even made it to Eureka Street ….???

All IMO

 

[Hestia's Fire]

Doesn't have to be a "professional" hit person, non professional clumsy hits have a history in this country.

I very much agree with this. I think most people think of a very Hollywood-esque stereotype when they imagine a professional hit, but I think the non professional clumsy type is far more common. If you live the kind of life where you regularly come into contact with the seedier elements of society, and you have enough money (or drugs, or something else they want), it's probably not as difficult as most of us would like to imagine to find someone to help you get rid of someone in your life who has become inconvenient to you.

I'm not saying that's what I think happened to Samantha, but I don't think it can be ruled out, either, especially considering the complete lack of evidence left behind.

 

[Kemug]

Not necessarily, they do convictions now without body, DNA, forensic accounting, and enough evidence- up to the jury!

Kerry Whelan, Sylvia Stuart, Lynette Dawson, Jennifer Dulos, Peter Falconio, Tegan Lane, Kelsey Berreth, etc etc. It's a pretty long list.

 

[Oona]

Due to lack of sightings it seems most likely she was lured or forced in to a vehicle very close to home.

Or into a property.
If she were abducted I imagine it would have to be by either someone she trusted or someone that incapacitated her quickly. I say this because the Apple Watch and iphone have features that allow you to contact emergency services very quickly.
I wonder if it has been determined what time her devices were turned off (if they were).

 

[Warshawski]

I used to aim for one kilometre every ten minutes. I was happy if my time dipped into the 9+min range.

I just meant, it wouldn't necessarily take three hours to walk 10km. If I could do it, she, an experienced runner, definitely could.

MOO

Why are we focusing on a 10 km Walk Time, when it’s reported that SM herself said the night before, that she intended to go for a 14 km Run the next morning ( as per previous DM article I posted )

 

[Black-Cat]

Depends... In the case of Lynette Joy Dawson, her body was never found and after decades her husband Chris Dawson was finally charged with her murder

Yes, but as I said it is very difficult

 

[Poirot's niece]

What if the still picture of SM is actually her returning from her walk/run.

Maybe she took the dog and that is why she has the poo bag.

When going for a walk/run she might leave from a different area around the house but returns through the front.

What if she was preparing to go for her run outside, putting on an SPF moisturiser, checking shoelaces etc and she heard something, or saw something nearby and walked up the driveway to check? Maybe her dogs were barking at something, a car, or another dog? She intended on going for a run but was waylaid following a stray. My dogs often bark if foxes are about and that is often around dawn/sunrise. I'm trying to find good reasons (or non sinister reasons) she didn't get to the usual forest trails. She may have followed a stray in bushland on or adjacent to her property (not running trails).
I'm sure this has all been theorised before and the search was thorough, sometimes its useful to place yourself back at zero and reconsider every possibility.
The many Ballarat towers being offline that day is a really horrid coincidence.
Perhaps she went North on foot? The towers all being scrambled how would we know? I saw early searches were around Brown Hill. Ditchfield Reserve is an hour walk, Gong Gong, or somewhere north east where you can still walk in a semi rural area until you reach the western highway. You should see the whiteboard in my head!