Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #3

[OptimusLime]

I read a few news articles (https://www.news.com.au/national/vi...y/news-story/60f98939514559ac8c229962cd5b2cf6)
And this one seemed pretty poorly written, albeit a bit confusing. Especially the line about,"terrorism/ no terrorism."
I'm reading some of the other articles my lovely Sleuthers have submitted.
Is there anything relatively new other than a bazillion detectives coming on board?
The other thing of interest that I pulled from article is Dr. Xanthe said,"They," believe she disappeared in the forest.
Huh!
ETA I think should just not bother with skewed news.com.au

 

[Toowong(s)]

If LE believed there was danger in that bushland they’d be cordoning off the area and giving strict instructions and warnings NOT to venture in.

I agree, to NOT give warnings etc is at odds with this recent revelation in the Herald Sun and Daily Mail.

Ms Murphy's mysterious disappearance during an early morning run on February 4 has generated hundreds of leads, with officers now honing in on known violent offenders living close to her home in Ballarat in regional Victoria.

BBM. Snipped from DM as HS is paywalled for most, but HS ran with similar wording first.

Samantha Murphy cops call in sex crime and anti-terror specialists

The extra detectives on what has become Victoria's highest priority police inquiry include personnel from the sex crimes, counter-terror, fraud and armed robbery divisions in Melbourne .

www.dailymail.co.uk

Based on this a plausible theory could be:
- police now have a very good idea who and what happened, and have the alleged/suspected offender under very close surveillance either overtly or covertly (hence no danger to public) and are putting their case together. They are “honing in”.
- police do not want any info out in the media as it may prejudice the accused right to a fair trial, say if the accused has offended before and now their name and history is all over the news as a suspect in this new case before a strong case has been built, it may completely compromise any future jury members ability to consider the new case with a fair and open mind.
- the local mainstream respectful media understand this and are honouring the wishes of police by reporting sparingly and responsibly.
- there may be little physical evidence which is worrying so it is a difficult process of compiling circumstantial evidence while surveillance continues in case the suspect slips up.
- any physical evidence found may help the police case and so, in the event the public search happens to find something it can’t harm the situation.
- SMs family would be desperate for closure but would be even more determined for justice and so are patiently giving police the time to do their jobs.

IMO. Possible threory on what is going on, anyone have thoughts on that?

If the theory above is true then the family are setting new standards for Aussie country stoicism seemingly holding back on displaying shock, grief, anger, outrage in the few quotes we do have. IMO.

 

[imstilla.grandma]

Cassar is a bushcraft expert who has been involved in a number of high-profile missing persons cases including that of three-year-old William Tyrrell who went missing on the NSW mid-north coast in September 2014.

On Sunrise on Thursday, Cassar revealed the “game plan” to find Murphy, alongside volunteer search crew organiser Tori Baxter, after meeting with fellow searchers the previous night.

“We came-up with a solid game plan for looking in areas that possibly haven’t been searched,” he said.

“I spent all day yesterday and part of the night out there searching, and we’re starting to get on top of it.”

“If you’re looking through the thick bushland, you can see whether it’s undisturbed — you can spot areas where nobody has walked through, or maybe something has been pushed through or dragged through,” Cassar said.

“In certain areas it could be bird alarm calls, alerting you to somebody sitting underneath a tree — it’s a variety of different things,” he said.

“If you live in the bush like I do, you start to get engaged with this sort of thing.”

“Eighteen days is a very long time but I haven’t given up hope yet,” Mallett told Sunrise host Nat Barr.

“You have to remember that Cleo Smith was recovered after 18 days in late 2021 when she was abducted — so up until there’s proof otherwise, I remain hopeful Samantha will be recovered alive.”

Bush tracker reveals ‘game plan’ as he joins the search for missing mum

Jake Cassar has been involved in a number of high-profile missing persons cases.

7news.com.au

 

[OptimusLime]

I

I agree, to NOT give warnings etc is at odds with this recent revelation in the Herald Sun and Daily Mail.

Ms Murphy's mysterious disappearance during an early morning run on February 4 has generated hundreds of leads, with officers now honing in on known violent offenders living close to her home in Ballarat in regional Victoria.

BBM. Snipped from DM as HS is paywalled for most, but HS ran with similar wording first.

Samantha Murphy cops call in sex crime and anti-terror specialists

The extra detectives on what has become Victoria's highest priority police inquiry include personnel from the sex crimes, counter-terror, fraud and armed robbery divisions in Melbourne .

www.dailymail.co.uk

Based on this a plausible theory could be:
- police now have a very good idea who and what happened, and have the alleged/suspected offender under very close surveillance either overtly or covertly (hence no danger to public) and are putting their case together. They are “honing in”.
- police do not want any info out in the media as it may prejudice the accused right to a fair trial, say if the accused has offended before and now their name and history is all over the news as a suspect in this new case before a strong case has been built, it may completely compromise any future jury members ability to consider the new case with a fair and open mind.
- the local mainstream respectful media understand this and are honouring the wishes of police by reporting sparingly and responsibly.
- there may be little physical evidence which is worrying so it is a difficult process of compiling circumstantial evidence while surveillance continues in case the suspect slips up.
- any physical evidence found may help the police case and so, in the event the public search happens to find something it can’t harm the situation.
- SMs family would be desperate for closure but would be even more determined for justice and so are patiently giving police the time to do their jobs.

IMO. Possible threory on what is going on, anyone have thoughts on that?

If the theory above is true then the family are setting new standards for Aussie country stoicism seemingly holding back on displaying shock, grief, anger, outrage in the few quotes we do have. IMO.

Really Really appreciate this post, it's so well done and constructed. Plus, it makes more sense than 99% of news articles.

 

[imstilla.grandma]

Experienced detectives from a number of units across the force’s crime and counter-terrorism command were deployed to join the missing persons squad, which is leading the investigation.

“Those highly skilled detectives have been selected for their experience in complex and protracted investigations,” a Victoria police spokesperson said.

“They have not been selected due to the crime theme they currently work in.”

Samantha Murphy: more detectives called in to search for missing Ballarat woman

Members of Victoria police’s crime and counter-terrorism command brought in after Murphy last seen on 4 February

www.theguardian.com

 

[LeahBee]

Investigators have already stated the murder/suicide are not related to this case so we can probably move on from that

 

[TootsieFootsie]

I wish the searchers could give, maybe an hourly report on anything found.

But it seems whatever they find they're supposed to give to the police.

So even if they found something today, the public might not get to hear about it.

 

[carbuff]

The discrepancies in the time of the Sunday brunch and/or meeting really bug me. I've seen 1p, 11a, 10a, and even 9a. Are people saying contradictory things because they misremember? Did she tell different people different times? Is it just media screwing up?

 

[Toowong(s)]

Researching know violent offenders in Ballarat is bringing up some morbid reading, inlcluding tales of evidence hidden in mineshafts…

I think I will take a break and let police do their jobs. With news yesterday that the police are honing in with a big team of expert detectives on the case, I am hopeful this is the final push to flush out all possible info and we will have some answers before the public search on Saturday.

 

[Dotta]

Researching know violent offenders in Ballarat is bringing up some morbid reading, inlcluding tales of evidence hidden in mineshafts…

I believe these mine shafts hide many secrets.
And I don't mean exactly gold.

 

[SLouTh]

Something that jumped out to me is that the police believe that Samantha made it into the forest where she usually runs (presumably Canadian Forest).

The thing I have a problem with regarding that statement, in the Herald Sun is as follows:

Who told them that Police believe that?? (It’s been cleverly written to look like police told them …. )

The Herald Sun has been told police believe Ms Murphy made it into the forest area where she regularly ran.

The other thing of interest that I pulled from article is Dr. Xanthe said,"They," believe she disappeared in the forest.

BBM


Is it the same source as News.com??? (See quote above and BBM) Dr Xanthe Mallet??? Who actually isn’t involved in the investigation, but just adding commentary??


IMO

https://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/crime/bush-expert-to-help-find-missing-woman-samantha-murphy/news-story/60f98939514559ac8c229962cd5b2cf6

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/truecrimeaustralia/police-courts-victoria/inside-the-police-search-for-missing-ballarat-mum-samantha-murphy/news-story/ff40e1662c59e850572584dbd77227f8

 

[olaselo]

Criminologist Xanthe Mallett speaking on channel nines breakfast show this morning:

Interesting language used around 2:00 mark.

Language used lines up with VICPOL helicopter searches.

Xanthe Mallett info: Associate Professor Xanthe Mallett / Staff Profile / The University of Newcastle, Australia

 

[olaselo]

Is it the same source as News.com??? (See quote above and BBM) Dr Xanthe Mallet??? Who actually isn’t involved in the investigation, but just adding commentary??

I believe it is - and I believe she may be someone who is in constant contact with police - due to her profession. She may have authority to speak on the subject.

 

[mondayschild]

It is so difficult for us to get a handle of what may have happened. My sense of things hasn't really changed re extortion. Feeling for the family. Hopefully there is some kind of evidence/info that is uncovered on Sat 24th.

 

[Toowong(s)]

Criminologist Xanthe Mallett speaking on channel nines breakfast show this morning:

Interesting language used around 2:00 mark.

Language used lines up with VICPOL helicopter searches.

Xanthe Mallett info: Associate Professor Xanthe Mallett / Staff Profile / The University of Newcastle, Australia

Very strong language today in multiple media sources and formats that police believe SM made it into the forest. I’ve always thought this was the case as air searches of the forest were deployed so quickly and again later in the week. The first aircraft (plane or chopper?) came from Flinders which is 3 hrs drive away by car, quicker by air of course but still a significant expense and use of police resources to deploy on day 1, I always thought that meant police had more to go on that a vague missing person report less than half a day old.

Perhaps MM could see this on Find My iPhone or similar and was able to provide evidence and/or perhaps it was the tower ping.

This is new reporting language in the last 24hrs - before it was language to the effect police knew or were confident SM left the property/address but were not sure which direction.

There is also language appearing that police also know SM is no longer in the forest area (eg by Xanthe Mallett in the 9 news video, who seems very credible and knowledgeable). This is equally significant and relevant.

 

[BreakingNews]

Some update from 1 hr ago

"The local community has also paid for a bushcraft teacher, involved in the 2014 William Tyrrell search, to help.

Hundreds of people are expected to join what has been dubbed a 'mega' ground search on Saturday."

Community mounts 'mega search' for missing Victorian woman Samantha Murphy

Police say they have added highly experienced detectives from multiple policing divisions to the weeks-long search for missing Ballarat mum Samantha Murphy.

www.abc.net.au

And tracker, nor anyone else found any thing related to William off the property!

 

[mondayschild]

Researching know violent offenders in Ballarat is bringing up some morbid reading, inlcluding tales of evidence hidden in mineshafts…

I think I will take a break and let police do their jobs. With news yesterday that the police are honing in with a big team of expert detectives on the case, I am hopeful this is the final push to flush out all p we will have some answers before the public search on Saturday.


Very strong language today in multiple media sources and formats that police believe SM made it into the forest. I’ve always thought this was the case as air searches of the forest were deployed so quickly and again later in the week. The first aircraft (plane or chopper?) came from Flinders which is 3 hrs drive away by car, quicker by air of course but still a significant expense and use of police resources to deploy on day 1, I always thought that meant police had more to go on that a vague missing person report less than half a day old.

Perhaps MM could see this on Find My iPhone or similar and was able to provide evidence and/or perhaps it was the tower ping.

This is new reporting language in the last 24hrs - before it was language to the effect police knew or were confident SM left the property/address but were not sure which direction.

There is also language appearing that police also know SM js no longer in the forest, equally significant and relevant.

So - something (signal/phone call/text) that occurs in two locations. The 2 locations that keep being searched (and I agree were searched SO quickly for a missing persons case) are the 'usual' run forest area and Buninyong. The reference to her no longer being in the forest could be being used to 'flush out' the parties responsible and then modify how they communicate etc.

 

[BreakingNews]

This case becomes so captivating because apparently, there is no last person to see her.....except the camera; I do wonder what her movements the night before entailed.

Good point. In the last police interview (can't find link now - I'm on a bus) a reporter asked about an incident at dinner the night before at the Golf Club. Police replied Yeah, no. That's all for now. My paraphrasing.

 

[jjleroche]

Good point. In the last police interview (can't find link now - I'm on a bus) a reporter asked about an incident at dinner the night before at the Golf Club. Police replied Yeah, no. That's all for now. My paraphrasing.

Yes, that's very interesting. I wonder what prompted the reporter to ask that question. There was a link to that Youtube press conference yesterday, but not any more.

 

[Sh3rl0ck H0lm3s]

Is there any possibility of an animal attack?