Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #4

[southgoldengirl]

There's Buninyong cemetery mentioned here.
Victoria seems to accept them.

Yes, they do some good charity fundraising. My point was that a senior member of the Ballarat chapter was shot during that run and I read somewhere, sorry can't locate it atm that there was a change of leadership in progress, so it may have been something to do with that.

 

[nightrider17]

Weird that Sebastopol is near Mount Clear and 2 people recently died from that area?? Coincidental? MOO

 

[PolyDot]

Since I joined WS in 2021,
I have followed numerous threads of women attacked randomly while running or walking alone:

Rachel Morin
Eliza Fletcher
Zara Aleena
Julia James
Sarah Everard
Libby Squire
Kendra Hanks
Maria Rawlings
Ashling Murphy

And there are many, many others

And now...
Samantha Murphy
Who went running alone in the nature trail early in the morning.

Is this case really different than others?
Others of victims of random attacks?

I initially thought random attack … but the longer it goes without finding her body the more I think it’s someone she knows -

 

[southgoldengirl]

Weird that Sebastopol is near Mount Clear and 2 people recently died from that area?? Coincidental? MOO

And Sebastapol is between Mt Clear and the Industrial estate in Delacombe. There's only a few km's either way

 

[BreakingNews]

In Australia 2022 & 2019 stats for homicides:
33% killed by family/domestic violence.
28.3% killed by person known to victim, other than family/domestic violence.
Less than 10% killed by strangers.

Recorded Crime - Victims, 2024

National statistics about victims of a range of personal, household and family and domestic violence offences as recorded by police

www.abs.gov.au

 

[otto]

If that was the case the police would be warning the public and there would be more concerns for the community and anyone entering the bush

This is not the case. The police have said, Ms Murphy may have been targeted, Superintendent Hatt said: 'We have no intelligence or evidence to suggest that there's any risk to anyone else.'

I am sure the police know exactly what happened and who are responsible, they are just waiting for that final piece of the jigsaw

Before they start raiding homes

I don't think that an opportunistic predator would search for another victim while police are investigating the last victim. Maybe, maybe not. Predator is not a motive-less madman on the lose. A predator watches for the opportunity to put a plan of murder into action. She may have been targeted in the sense that someone noticed her running routines.

It's hard to say what police know, and why they release statements.

 

[Deleted member 293720]

Yes I agree with all the above and police asking about vehicles with damage could also be related to non human collisions. They mention property damage too. The driver/s may have had to drive through private fences or gates to leave the area unseen by main roads or people. They also may have swerved and hit trees or street sign poles/letterboxes/wheelie bins-things on the edges of dwellings. If someone demanded Samantha to get in a car and she didn't, and as police say they believe she was removed from the area unwillingly or "not under her own steam" this could of led to the perp/s having to travel in directions they hadn't planned on, higher risk areas. There could also be a call out for help from the initial perp and she was transferred to another vehicle and taken elsewhere so one car is tracked and pinged and another is seen nearby within that 7AM to 7PM Sunday time bracket. A car is clocked without damage but doesn't return the same route, or at all. Police have searched many properties. I don't like to think that Sam was hit by a car either deliberately or accidentally because it is so awful but its obviously a big possibility. If it was intentional, who wants that kind of evidence to conceal? But as many have noted things don't always go to plan and, someone in an irrational elevated state may not have been thinking ahead like that. People who commit these crimes are not always as smart as they think they are. Police may be hoping for a strand of hair or fabric or a spot of blood, that would be solid evidence. They also may be just looking for dashcam footage of someone driving in and out of the area of interest with a banged up panel/broken light to get a match on forensics that also lines up with a ping or traffic light camera photo.
This was a longer post than intended!

Good post

The damage vehicle could be the vehicle that has transported her away from that area, but has previous damage to it

Not the fact the damage was caused by hitting Samantha, as the police are at Mt Clear looking for evidence of small items and signs of a struggle

So you would think she wouldn't have been hit by a vehicle, as there is no evidence to suggest that

Police have previously extensively searched this area before, but intelligence have got the police back there again

That damaged car could have been hidden in the bush waiting for her, most likely stolen, maybe known to the business

I think the police are closing in

 

[Poirot's niece]

I guess you would want to leave the area in the least likely way to be spotted on any CCTV as well? JMO

Mount Clear seems to have a built up area of housing and schools - so possibly they weaved through the bush towards Buninyong and exited near there?? MOO

Yes true, or perhaps they went east towards and through what is largely farmland zoning. Much less foot traffic and technology. Tollways on the day will be interesting, petrol purchases. Everyone will have to have a good plausible reason why they were found to be where they were.

 

[PolyDot]

What were the unanswered direct questions asked about the bikie links? I don't remember them.

I only remember that the police have ruled out any connection between the murder/suicide in Ballarat (with the perp being a Bandito) - as per this article.

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/truecrimeaustralia/police-courts-victoria/inside-the-police-search-for-missing-ballarat-mum-samantha-murphy/news-story/ff40e1662c59e850572584dbd77227f8?amp

Nope. This is a well planned organised hit

Do you think that a random attacker could have planned an attack in lots of detail .. could have gone over it many times .. then just waits for the right opportunity .. often psychopaths rehearse obsessively

 

[Poirot's niece]

Weird that Sebastopol is near Mount Clear and 2 people recently died from that area?? Coincidental? MOO

Police did say that they had ruled out Samantha's disappearance being related to other recent nearby incidents.

 

[BreakingNews]

Random, you mean?
It’s extremely rare.
As in rare that anyone commits an unplanned, random attack on a person they don’t know (unless their mind is significantly altered by mental Illness/drugs).
It’s also very rare that the perpetrator is unknown to the victim.
In most cases, it’s neatly almost always someone the victim knows.(unless it’s an organised crime ‘hit’)

Opportunistic crimes leave evidence.
IMHO I really don’t think this was opportunistic.

I just posted the stats.
33% killed due to domestic/family violence.
28% from people known to victim other than domestic violence and less than 10% victims unknown to killer. That puts a random attack at low odds. But this is stats.

 

[Deleted member 293720]

Do you think that a random attacker could have planned an attack in lots of detail .. could have gone over it many times .. then just waits for the right opportunity .. often psychopaths rehearse obsessively

The police believe it's a targeted attack

 

[Dr Samoht]

Investigators are searching on a service-road/ trail called Boak Road. Someone could easily have seen Samantha on Eureka Road, and criss-crossed her running path in a car until she was at Boak Road.

Red is possible running route, four roads are purple. Dot is Boak Road.

Boak Rd is a very rough track suited to slow steady 4WD traffic only , constantly rutted out after heavy rainfalls, not the type of road vehicles could use at speed unlike nearby Recreation Rd where speeds of 80 + kph are done with ease , and has an easy through exit at both ends , Recreation Rd is commonly used by locals seeking a short cut returning from Melb via Warrenheip and Yankee Flat Rd , turning right onto Mc Carthys Rd which becomes Rec Rd after crossing Boundary Rd .

 

[southgoldengirl]

Good post

The damage vehicle could be the vehicle that has transported her away from that area, but has previous damage to it

Not the fact the damage was caused by hitting Samantha, as the police are at Mt Clear looking for evidence of small items and signs of a struggle

So you would think she wouldn't have been hit by a vehicle, as there is no evidence to suggest that

Police have previously extensively searched this area before, but intelligence have got the police back there again

That damaged car could have been hidden in the bush waiting for her, most likely stolen, maybe known to the business

I think the police are closing in

Agree, I think the vehicle was already damaged and used to transport SM. The police may have an eyewitness of that vehicle in the timeframe that she was at that location or even CCTV footage.

If she was hit by a vehicle you would expect more evidence to be found eg broken glass, shoes, phone etc as things would have gone flying.

 

[Poirot's niece]

Good post

The damage vehicle could be the vehicle that has transported her away from that area, but has previous damage to it

Not the fact the damage was caused by hitting Samantha, as the police are at Mt Clear looking for evidence of small items and signs of a struggle

So you would think she wouldn't have been hit by a vehicle, as there is no evidence to suggest that

Police have previously extensively searched this area before, but intelligence have got the police back there again

That damaged car could have been hidden in the bush waiting for her, most likely stolen, maybe known to the business

I think the police are closing in

Good point, an already damaged vehicle is much more noticeable if you're just cruising through your Sunday. I do think the police mentioning property damage isn't arbitrary. Someone could go out to a livestock fenceline and find its been cut, isolated paddocks could've been zigzagged.

 

[BreakingNews]

Good post

The damage vehicle could be the vehicle that has transported her away from that area, but has previous damage to it

Not the fact the damage was caused by hitting Samantha, as the police are at Mt Clear looking for evidence of small items and signs of a struggle

So you would think she wouldn't have been hit by a vehicle, as there is no evidence to suggest that

Police have previously extensively searched this area before, but intelligence have got the police back there again

That damaged car could have been hidden in the bush waiting for her, most likely stolen, maybe known to the business

I think the police are closing in

Good points

 

[Deleted member 339914]

Samantha's disappearance is stressing me alot and I don't know her at all so I can only imagine the pain for anyone who loves her. I am still holding on to the hope that she will be found alive. My gut feeling, for what it's worth, is that whoever has done this to her is someone she knows but not necessarily well ... someone she has said hi to while she has been on her runs, someone she would not consider as a potential danger to her, someone who managed to engage her in conversation somehow and distract her. Samantha is a very smart and switched on woman from what I can gather but also very community minded. She may well have gone to assist someone she has said hello to several times and ended up in danger. All my positive thoughts go to her ... that she will miraculously be OK.

 

[otto]

I just posted the stats.
33% killed due to domestic/family violence.
28% from people known to victim other than domestic violence and less than 10% victims unknown to killer. That puts a random attack at low odds. But this is stats.

This stands out:

"28% from people known to victim other than domestic violence."

 

[Naobh]

The police believe it's a targeted attack

They've said no such thing.

The police would prefer not to give any member of the public preconceived notions of what happened, because they need as much information as possible, in case it could be helpful for the investigation. imo

 

[Dotta]

Dbm