Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat, 4 Feb 2024 *Arrest* #11

[BreakingNews]

IMO, he had already figured out where to take the body. He thought he had it all figured out.

Also, he is pleading not guilty. So why would he say anything?

JMO

How do we know he is pleading not guilty?

 

[SouthAussie]

How do we know he is pleading not guilty?

I would think that his lawyers will be trawling through the evidence, looking for proof positive and for reasonable doubt.
After doing that they will be able to make a determination of whether PS should plead not guilty, or try for a plea agreement.

imo

 

[Rocket333]

I would think that his lawyers will be trawling through the evidence, looking for proof positive and for reasonable doubt.
After doing that they will be able to make a determination of whether PS should plead not guilty, or try for a plea agreement.

imo

Trawling through an unprecedented amount of evidence, including possibly thousands of hours of CCTV footage. How many staff would be assigned trawling through the cctv duty do you think? Imagine the cost of this job alone.

 

[australianwebsleuth]

PS was very tight on time that day. The alarm was raised quickly.

My guess is Sam is within 20-30 km radius & off a road or trail about 10 -20mtrs.

IMO

The alarm was raised about 12.30 pm ? She had travelled about 7 km after leaving her home at 7.30. Attacked about 8.30 am. This leaves a 3 hour time period to move the body from the Canadian state forrest. Initially they were not looking for a murder victim. He could have taken her just about anywhere in that time frame.

That's why I think that concentrating on locations well known to the defendant is a better way forward as the Korean research suggests. (90% of victims are dumped at locations known to the assailant).We know they searched the Enfield state forrest, suggesting some intelligence was acted upon. The search for the phone suggests some other intelligence (his phone gps?). He probably turned his phone off and disabled location services as they would already know where he took her.

I think the best way forward is to look at his life and come up with areas to look at.

 

[australianwebsleuth]

Geographic profiling - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

According to Dr. Kim Rossmo there are four different types of offenders with regard to geographic profiling.
Hunter: the hunter singles out a specific victim without leaving his home territory. He will commit crimes where he lives.

Poacher: a poacher will travel out of his home territory to do his hunting.

Troller: A troller will realize an opportunistic encounter while occupied in other activities and then strike

Trapper: a trapper will draw the victim into him using different seemingly harmless situations.

Suggests he is a Hunter and Troller. I think this helps in victim selection but does not help in finding her body.

 

[australianwebsleuth]

And only about 20 minutes home to Scotsburn (house-sitting place) through the back roads, after that.

imo

He may of dumped the phone on a different day. How they found the phone is a story in itself.

 

[australianwebsleuth]

From the time she was murdered until the alarm was raised was , 8am to around 12.30pm - 1.00pm.... he has to tidy up, he has to get out and back, and he has no way of knowing how long he has, he doesn't know if she is on her outward bound track or her homeward track back on her run, he doesn't know where she lives. He didn't use the Western Highway, because that has CCTV all along it, and some of those ring roads around Ballarat do, too... he has to know what he's doing, he can't dart hither and yon, he has to have a definite destination in mind, perhaps. As soon as that alarm goes, he has to look calm and ordinary, just goin about his Sunday chores, whatever they were, he possibly had obligations and arrangements of his own to attend, ...

So we can figure that he stayed off the main road (he would of been seen) and probably headed into the region between Ballarat and Geelong where there are large areas of forrest and national parks. Does he have a connection to one of those areas, either a picnic spot, somewhere he went motor bike riding, A Hiking or a camping site. He will have placed her body within walking distance of a road.

 

[Rocket333]

We know they searched the Enfield state forrest, suggesting some intelligence was acted upon. The search for the phone suggests some other intelligence (his phone gps?). He probably turned his phone off and disabled location services as they would already know where he took her.

What about her phone? Did he turn it off too? He couldn’t/didn’t leave it at the scene and as we know it pinged later in the day before being found in quite a specific spot months later. Was it with the body, then moved?
The intel and/or informant journey with this case will be fascinating once revealed.

 

[australianwebsleuth]

So the defendant was recovering from a drug and alcohol fueled bender. Why was he in the Canadian state forrest at 8.30 am? Was he sleeping there. Did he have his car with him? Did he leave his car there the night before. Was this a result of 'Ice rage' on an innocent bystander. These are the questions I have asked myself.

 

[SouthAussie]

Does he have a connection to one of those areas, either a picnic spot, somewhere he went motor bike riding, A Hiking or a camping site.

Photos posted on social media show the pair embarking on holidays, festivals and camping trips with friends in locations across the country .....
One video posted online shows Stephenson dressed only in underwear in front of a campsite and dancing.

Inside the romantic relationship of Samantha Murphy's accused killer

Patrick Stephenson, 22, and his long-term girlfriend Meg Harbour, 22, were house sitting a Scotsburn property, south of Ballarat, on Wednesday when the premise was raided by police.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[australianwebsleuth]

Photos posted on social media show the pair embarking on holidays, festivals and camping trips with friends in locations across the country .....
One video posted online shows Stephenson dressed only in underwear in front of a campsite and dancing.

Inside the romantic relationship of Samantha Murphy's accused killer

Patrick Stephenson, 22, and his long-term girlfriend Meg Harbour, 22, were house sitting a Scotsburn property, south of Ballarat, on Wednesday when the premise was raided by police.

www.dailymail.co.uk

So geo profiling that campsite may be helpful.

 

[Rocket333]

So we can figure that he stayed off the main road (he would of been seen)

Not necessarily. The extensive amount of cctv evidence gathered (potentially thousands of hours) could be related to his travelling main roads. You’d think he’d stay away from more exposed routes but maybe not, or maybe not after the fact (ie in the days or weeks after).
See discussion about this on previous page/s.

 

[Trooper]

So the defendant was recovering from a drug and alcohol fueled bender. Why was he in the Canadian state forrest at 8.30 am? Was he sleeping there. Did he have his car with him? Did he leave his car there the night before. Was this a result of 'Ice rage' on an innocent bystander. These are the questions I have asked myself.

'So the defendant was recovering from a drug and alcohol fueled bender.'... this is not , so far, a designated concrete occurrence. Apparently, he attended a birthday party for an 80 yr old the Saturday night, he had been filmed on a drug and alcohol interlude back in January, these two events should not be conflated. at this point.

Not to say, that 80 yr old's birthday parties should not be alcohol and drug fuelled, I certainly intend mine to be, and much more, it's a free country, pay your taxes, do what you want, but generally speaking , they are usually staid and subdued affairs, on the whole....

 

[SouthAussie]

Not to say, that 80 yr old's birthday parties should not be alcohol and drug fuelled, I certainly intend mine to be, and much more

Hahahahaha ..... we would expect nothing less, Troops!

 

[australianwebsleuth]

Trawling through an unprecedented amount of evidence, including possibly thousands of hours of CCTV footage. How many staff would be assigned trawling through the cctv duty do you think? Imagine the cost of this job alone.

You would think a brief of evidence would contain the relevant footage only. So that justice can be preserved, the defence be given another folder with evidence from other cameras so that they cannot claim that there was evidence of an alternate scenario withheld.

 

[australianwebsleuth]

Not necessarily. The extensive amount of cctv evidence gathered (potentially thousands of hours) could be related to his travelling main roads. You’d think he’d stay away from more exposed routes but maybe not, or maybe not after the fact (ie in the days or weeks after).
See discussion about this on previous page/s.

Except they looked for her in the Enfield state forrest, suggesting that he was not seen on cctv going North.

 

[Trooper]

You would think a brief of evidence would contain the relevant footage only. So that justice can be preserved, the defence be given another folder with evidence from other cameras so that they cannot claim that there was evidence of an alternate scenario withheld.

We cannot be having the Prosecution deciding which bits are relevant. This would be the equivalent of a rigged operation. Far better for the Prosecution to disclose everything, ( in the actual meaning of the word, to reveal, expose, show something that was hidden, etc' )... in law, the Prosecution can be held liable for not disclosing everything that may, just may turn out to be outrageously relevant, according to the defence. .....

So this is why the DPP turns everything over THAT THEY INTEND TO USE IN THE PROSECUTION OF THIS MATTER, to the defence Barrister and paralegals, .. (a) it's required , and (b) it's up to the defence to decide what's relevant to their defending strategy, armed with the same knowledge the Prosecutor has.

 

[Rocket333]

Except they looked for her in the Enfield state forrest, suggesting that he was not seen on cctv going North.

Are all of the search sites to date south of Woowookarung Park?

I just did a search and all appear to be south, and not north or due east or west (correct me if I’m wrong).

 

[drsleuth]

Except they looked for her in the Enfield state forrest, suggesting that he was not seen on cctv going North.

They also searched Brown Hill & Black Hill & Nerrina

They have searched areas including Buninyong, Ballarat East, Mount Clear, Brown Hill, Nerrina, Black Hill, Scotchmans Lead, Mount Helen and the Woowookurung Regional Park.

No new leads and a tight lid on protracted investigation — what we know about Samantha Murphy's disappearance

A "top priority" investigation, numerous police interviews and a supportive community effort have been features of a search in the month since Ballarat mum Samantha Murphy disappeared.

www.abc.net.au

 

[australianwebsleuth]

Are all of the search sites to date south of Woowookarung Park?

I just did a search and all appear to be south, and not north or due east or west (correct me if I’m wrong).

From what I can tell, yes. The other sites including brown and black hill were searched prior to any arrest.