Found Deceased Spain - Esther Dingley, from UK, missing in the Pyrenees, November 2020 #5

[RickshawFan]

This isn't meant to be unkind. It's meant to be real.

There are a million ways to go missing on a trail. Very often, IME, lost hikers are found by happenstance, not by searching. Though searches may be methodical, mountains aren't logical, nor are hikers in distress or hypothermic.

IMO the official searchers are experienced, and their response (and statements) reflect their understanding that mountains bury their dead, often for years. They are indeed committing to searches, but for months now, they've not sounded optimistic about recovery.

IMO barring further evidence, it's not possible to conclude that ED left the mountains or this event was anything other than a mishap somewhere up there.

Unfortunately, being fit and/or being "experienced" (however survivors want to define it) are quickly irrelevant when nature comes calling. And aptitude can't compensate for risk-taking or accidents...

Comparable cases: Lakoduk, Dubal, Paul Miller, McLean, Largay....

 

[ZaZara]

This isn't meant to be unkind. It's meant to be real.

There are a million ways to go missing on a trail. Very often, IME, lost hikers are found by happenstance, not by searching. Though searches may be methodical, mountains aren't logical, nor are hikers in distress or hypothermic.

IMO the official searchers are experienced, and their response (and statements) reflect their understanding that mountains bury their dead, often for years. They are indeed committing to searches, but for months now, they've not sounded optimistic about recovery.

IMO barring further evidence, it's not possible to conclude that ED left the mountains or this event was anything other than a mishap somewhere up there.

Unfortunately, being fit and/or being "experienced" (however survivors want to define it) are quickly irrelevant when nature comes calling. And aptitude can't compensate for risk-taking or accidents...

Comparable cases: Lakoduk, Dubal, Paul Miller, McLean, Largay....

Names of hikers still missing in the Pyrenees:

Reinhard Kulosa, 2006
Françoise Dasnois, 2009
Michel Nielsen, 2010
Ferran Camps, 2010
Pierre Brachet, 2012
Esther Dingley, 2020
Andres Funes Monge, 2020

The profile is that of a foreign hiker who was going alone, hence the difficulty in tracking them.

Spain - Esther Dingley, from UK, missing in the Pyrenees, November 2020 #3

 

[Steve13]

It's a terrible shame, but given what has been made public any cop would say that even the relatively benign conditions on 22/11/20 would still leave a fall causing injury then death as by far the most likely solution. The case is compelling, though, because there are points of ambiguity which seem to make suicide and murder at least plausible.

ED could have walked off the hills and hitched (again) to her vehicle. Hitchers do occasionally get murdered. The cops may still be unsure about DC. The ambiguity, though, mainly turns around her own actions, unknown comms detail and is not helped by the LBT dossier. ED's movements and ED/DC comms seem the oddest things.

First, her many trip extensions are odder than they are presented. DC has a serious and unpleasant health condition and was resting at a borrowed gite because of it; ED was only 2 hours or so away from him. She went away for 4 days but then continuously decided to stay away for over a month without so much as popping back for the day to see how her unwell partner was?

Second, ED's radio silence of the day before the disappearance is odd - particularly in view of the fact that she and DC were the stars of a BBC report on the very day she disappeared. Third, although this comms failure is felt by DC to be unusual, there was a wait of 3 days before DC reported her disappearance. Comms DC/ED on and after 22nd are not public, but cops would expect to see much excitement about the BBC report then many messages asking where ED is. Presumably, he did not assume she had no comms at all over that entire period? Given that ED had continuously delayed her return, cops would certainly wonder why DC remained so confident over that period that ED was fine and would return home as apparently planned.

At root, ED has history of depression, and because there are red flags with her behaviour (vagueness about her route, odd food behaviour and a history of eating disorder, an impression that she was wandering around rather aimlessly, perhaps also that odd coincidence of the BBC report) cops would consider suicide plausible.

Finally, perhaps, there are the long shots, but these naturally go a long way from Occam. One reason people are vague about their movements and stay away for longer periods than expected is that they're having an affair. Adding to an affair a chance accident, or to a new lover also turning out to be a murderer, becomes essentially implausible (but not impossible) because of that extra leap, though. And of course the cops will have looked carefully at DC as he's the partner and women killers are usually the partner. If they have ruled out him having access to a vehicle then he's essentially out of the picture. We don't know for sure that they've ruled this out, of course. They'd certainly have looked at his data usage over that time to ensure there was no radio silence on his part. Finding out if he had access to a car would take much time and effort, though.

There's easily enough ambiguity to keep this alive in the public mind until it is solved one way or the other. A fall is most likely, but it's not impossible that the cops are being coy while examining pings and data, investigating whether DC had other comms or access to a vehicle, and suchlike, and waiting for some new evidence to crop up.

The rules of this board forbid suggesting that ED has run off, perhaps with a lover. This seems humane and right, and it's a long shot anyway. But the cops won't rule it out - it's not at all difficult to remain silent in the EU for a few months, particularly with someone's help.

Assessment? Two to one a fall versus murder/suicide. If the cops think it is murder and are being coy then it will be based upon info not yet available to the public. All IMO. obv.

 

[drama_farmer]

It's a terrible shame, but given what has been made public any cop would say that even the relatively benign conditions on 22/11/20 would still leave a fall causing injury then death as by far the most likely solution. The case is compelling, though, because there are points of ambiguity which seem to make suicide and murder at least plausible.

ED could have walked off the hills and hitched (again) to her vehicle. Hitchers do occasionally get murdered. The cops may still be unsure about DC. The ambiguity, though, mainly turns around her own actions, unknown comms detail and is not helped by the LBT dossier. ED's movements and ED/DC comms seem the oddest things.

First, her many trip extensions are odder than they are presented. DC has a serious and unpleasant health condition and was resting at a borrowed gite because of it; ED was only 2 hours or so away from him. She went away for 4 days but then continuously decided to stay away for over a month without so much as popping back for the day to see how her unwell partner was?

Second, ED's radio silence of the day before the disappearance is odd - particularly in view of the fact that she and DC were the stars of a BBC report on the very day she disappeared. Third, although this comms failure is felt by DC to be unusual, there was a wait of 3 days before DC reported her disappearance. Comms DC/ED on and after 22nd are not public, but cops would expect to see much excitement about the BBC report then many messages asking where ED is. Presumably, he did not assume she had no comms at all over that entire period? Given that ED had continuously delayed her return, cops would certainly wonder why DC remained so confident over that period that ED was fine and would return home as apparently planned.

At root, ED has history of depression, and because there are red flags with her behaviour (vagueness about her route, odd food behaviour and a history of eating disorder, an impression that she was wandering around rather aimlessly, perhaps also that odd coincidence of the BBC report) cops would consider suicide plausible.

Finally, perhaps, there are the long shots, but these naturally go a long way from Occam. One reason people are vague about their movements and stay away for longer periods than expected is that they're having an affair. Adding to an affair a chance accident, or to a new lover also turning out to be a murderer, becomes essentially implausible (but not impossible) because of that extra leap, though. And of course the cops will have looked carefully at DC as he's the partner and women killers are usually the partner. If they have ruled out him having access to a vehicle then he's essentially out of the picture. We don't know for sure that they've ruled this out, of course. They'd certainly have looked at his data usage over that time to ensure there was no radio silence on his part. Finding out if he had access to a car would take much time and effort, though.

There's easily enough ambiguity to keep this alive in the public mind until it is solved one way or the other. A fall is most likely, but it's not impossible that the cops are being coy while examining pings and data, investigating whether DC had other comms or access to a vehicle, and suchlike, and waiting for some new evidence to crop up.

The rules of this board forbid suggesting that ED has run off, perhaps with a lover. This seems humane and right, and it's a long shot anyway. But the cops won't rule it out - it's not at all difficult to remain silent in the EU for a few months, particularly with someone's help.

Assessment? Two to one a fall versus murder/suicide. If the cops think it is murder and are being coy then it will be based upon info not yet available to the public. All IMO. obv.

Great summary and assessment! Welcome to WebSleuths

 

[stmarysmead]

It's a terrible shame, but given what has been made public any cop would say that even the relatively benign conditions on 22/11/20 would still leave a fall causing injury then death as by far the most likely solution. The case is compelling, though, because there are points of ambiguity which seem to make suicide and murder at least plausible.

ED could have walked off the hills and hitched (again) to her vehicle. Hitchers do occasionally get murdered. The cops may still be unsure about DC. The ambiguity, though, mainly turns around her own actions, unknown comms detail and is not helped by the LBT dossier. ED's movements and ED/DC comms seem the oddest things.

First, her many trip extensions are odder than they are presented. DC has a serious and unpleasant health condition and was resting at a borrowed gite because of it; ED was only 2 hours or so away from him. She went away for 4 days but then continuously decided to stay away for over a month without so much as popping back for the day to see how her unwell partner was?

Second, ED's radio silence of the day before the disappearance is odd - particularly in view of the fact that she and DC were the stars of a BBC report on the very day she disappeared. Third, although this comms failure is felt by DC to be unusual, there was a wait of 3 days before DC reported her disappearance. Comms DC/ED on and after 22nd are not public, but cops would expect to see much excitement about the BBC report then many messages asking where ED is. Presumably, he did not assume she had no comms at all over that entire period? Given that ED had continuously delayed her return, cops would certainly wonder why DC remained so confident over that period that ED was fine and would return home as apparently planned.

At root, ED has history of depression, and because there are red flags with her behaviour (vagueness about her route, odd food behaviour and a history of eating disorder, an impression that she was wandering around rather aimlessly, perhaps also that odd coincidence of the BBC report) cops would consider suicide plausible.

Finally, perhaps, there are the long shots, but these naturally go a long way from Occam. One reason people are vague about their movements and stay away for longer periods than expected is that they're having an affair. Adding to an affair a chance accident, or to a new lover also turning out to be a murderer, becomes essentially implausible (but not impossible) because of that extra leap, though. And of course the cops will have looked carefully at DC as he's the partner and women killers are usually the partner. If they have ruled out him having access to a vehicle then he's essentially out of the picture. We don't know for sure that they've ruled this out, of course. They'd certainly have looked at his data usage over that time to ensure there was no radio silence on his part. Finding out if he had access to a car would take much time and effort, though.

There's easily enough ambiguity to keep this alive in the public mind until it is solved one way or the other. A fall is most likely, but it's not impossible that the cops are being coy while examining pings and data, investigating whether DC had other comms or access to a vehicle, and suchlike, and waiting for some new evidence to crop up.

The rules of this board forbid suggesting that ED has run off, perhaps with a lover. This seems humane and right, and it's a long shot anyway. But the cops won't rule it out - it's not at all difficult to remain silent in the EU for a few months, particularly with someone's help.

Assessment? Two to one a fall versus murder/suicide. If the cops think it is murder and are being coy then it will be based upon info not yet available to the public. All IMO. obv.

Terrific summary! You touch on all the aspects of this case that seem to take it out of ordinary for some of us. The radio silence after the media triumph and the 3 day wait to report in the face of this strange “quiet” from ED…are among what puzzle me the most.

 

[capitola51]

The Wadham Giving Day was held over 11/12 November 2020 ( Wadham Giving Day 2020 - Wadham SU ), ED and DC met each other at Wadham College and participated regularly in the event, this is pretty much the only combined footage I have found for November 2020.

 

[Steve13]

But it was on the main BBC news page - that's certainly where I saw it. It was there to be seen by any of the 14m weekly visitors to that page, so it was kind of a big deal in terms of publicity.

A story on the front page of the BBC website with cute dogs would certainly have generated tens of thousands of hits to ED/DC's FB page, and a considerable uptick in their modest book sales. This broad media logic is what informs, and follows, the BBC site editor's decision to give a local story ( from Tyne and Wear in this instance) national prominence.

 

[capitola51]

Here is a direct link to the web page referenced by the dossier: Randonnée Pic Sauvegarde 2738m – Les Topos Pyrénées par Mariano

 

[stmarysmead]

Here is a direct link to the web page referenced by the dossier: Randonnée Pic Sauvegarde 2738m – Les Topos Pyrénées par Mariano

These are amazing pictures. It helps to understand why DC believes that some trace of her should have bern found. It must be the lakes. Unless she is not in that area at all.

 

[Satchie]

This isn't meant to be unkind. It's meant to be real.

There are a million ways to go missing on a trail. Very often, IME, lost hikers are found by happenstance, not by searching. Though searches may be methodical, mountains aren't logical, nor are hikers in distress or hypothermic.

IMO the official searchers are experienced, and their response (and statements) reflect their understanding that mountains bury their dead, often for years. They are indeed committing to searches, but for months now, they've not sounded optimistic about recovery.

IMO barring further evidence, it's not possible to conclude that ED left the mountains or this event was anything other than a mishap somewhere up there.

Unfortunately, being fit and/or being "experienced" (however survivors want to define it) are quickly irrelevant when nature comes calling. And aptitude can't compensate for risk-taking or accidents...

Comparable cases: Lakoduk, Dubal, Paul Miller, McLean, Largay....

I recently recalled the case of Cody Dial, missing after a vague plan to backpack in Costa Rica. When he couldn't be found, a documentary filmmaker, working with Cody's father, fabricated many supposed 'facts' for the sake of a dramatic TV series pointing to murder.

But then, a couple of years after he'd disappeared, a sharp-eyed miner, looking for gold in an area previously searched, found Cody's remains and campsite underneath a tree that had fallen on him while he camped there...the searchers just hadn't noticed it.

 

[Steve13]

Is there anyone who knows how strict the lockdown in France was in late November? Would people accept hitch-hikers? Would police stop people and ask why they were travelling? Did DC had access to a car? How did he get to the search area after ED was reported missing, and he went there to look for her?

Car access is a key issue in the whole thing. Cops could only rule it out by calling on thousands of addresses reasonably accessible by cycle from the gite; then chasing up second homers all over Europe. They'd be looking either for a tacit arrangement for casual use or an unsecured vehicle. Plenty of people with second homes keep an old banger there and wouldn't know whether it had been driven in their absence or not. It's a doable inquiry, but it would take the kind of resources only freed up if it's decided foul play is suspected. It's not impossible they'll reach a decision point on that quite soon. The coroners inquest will, if ED has passed away, have to take place in UK so the UK authorities will have some leverage re: any suspicions.

 

[capitola51]

Another data point to cover DC mentioning that 'there were a lot of hunters in the area' when he was searching for ED.
Pyrenean Chamois hunting - Pyrenean Outfitters
The Pyrenene Chamois is hunted, the best season is from end October to end of January "on the French side mostly near the border'.
Looking online there are quite a few outfits like this, offering hunting packages in the Pyrenees close to the border on both sides.

 

[RickshawFan]

Another data point to cover DC mentioning that 'there were a lot of hunters in the area' when he was searching for ED.
Pyrenean Chamois hunting - Pyrenean Outfitters
The Pyrenene Chamois is hunted, the best season is from end October to end of January "on the French side mostly near the border'.
Looking online there are quite a few outfits like this, offering hunting packages in the Pyrenees close to the border on both sides.

I do recall DC mentioning that. Note that these are organized hunting trips in these ads, though I presume the idea would also apply to non-organized trips. And pandemic stay-at-home orders are in effect for France, so nyet on the hunting trips. The odds of any kind of induced-by-another-person mishap would be an extreme reach. The odds are much higher that ED had an accident of some kind, though very possibly not in the area where she indicated vaguely where she sort of perhaps might be going. IMO.
Take the scenario out to its logical conclusion.....If a hunter shoots at a moving object, s/he will presumably check out the object after shooting to see what s/he shot. There's the whoops and hollers, gloating 'n' all, selfies for dinner parties, a drink or 2 for celebration. This is essential to a hunting trip, and not a minor feature.
Instead s/he gathers that s/he has really blundered. So what does s/he do? Let me think....Remove 100+lbs (approx 50 Kg) of dead-weight remains? Drag them somewhere? To the treeline down in the valley? To a hole in a rock without falling over and having an accident him/herself? Or, maybe, dismember for portage?
This all takes equipment, help, a mule, a guy who works out in a gym 3x a day, a bunch more unscrupulous big guys to help, an ATV, a LARGE backpack for pieces..... And/or you're lugging a bleeding body out on your back? The days are very short, darkness is descending...
I'm sorry to be so distastefully bald, but that's what happens when you start projecting outcomes for different (impossible) scenarios: they soon look ludicrous.
And:
The K-9's didn't pick up any scent corresponding to "hunting accident".
There's a lockdown.
How's a car getting anywhere close without being noticed?
ED never made it to the Refuge, per LE.
The local LE are super-experienced in search and rescue, and they have been diligent in their efforts. IMO their perspective oughtn't to be second-guessed.

 

[RickshawFan]

Is there anyone who knows how strict the lockdown in France was in late November? Would people accept hitch-hikers? Would police stop people and ask why they were travelling? Did DC had access to a car? How did he get to the search area after ED was reported missing, and he went there to look for her?

I don't believe we know when DC reached the area. And he seems not to have reported right away that ED was missing.

 

[RickshawFan]

Dan replaced the heading (picture of the two of them) on the Esther and Dan page with...a street sign (or similar) that says...

“Col de l'Iseran’...

Wonder the significance?

Bump.
Did anyone have an answer for this?

 

[ZaZara]

Bump.
Did anyone have an answer for this?

This picture? (Current header on the E&D FB)

And the problem is...???

 

[tarabull]

It's not a "problem"...

If u follow the post back, the original QUESTION is What is the "significance"???...(of the picture / of the place???)

 

[Steve13]

The absolute core of this case is the missing 3 days, 22-25 Nov, before ED's disappearance was reported. The dodgy dossier is low-grade PR nonsense complete with unexplained omissions, full of untruths ('ED was behaving competently in the hills'; 'she was fine emotionally', 'the relationship was in good order'). No-one's been 'cleared'. Cops don't put their investigative suspicions up in neon lights. No-one got hit by a 'stray hunter's bullet'. There remains a strong chance that ED simply fell, but it is quite obvious what the plausible alternatives are. The UK cops are saying nothing at all, just quietly getting on with their jobs. If they, and their French/Spanish counterparts, feel there is enough justification once the latest hill search is completed, they will soon commence a full search for a car. We will all know because thousands of locals will be visited systematically.

 

[ZaZara]

It's not a "problem"...

If u follow the post back, the original QUESTION is What is the "significance"???...(of the picture / of the place???)

I did follow back and the post also says:

Dan replaced the heading (picture of the two of them) on the Esther and Dan page with...a street sign (or similar) that says...

“Col de l'Iseran’...

Here the two of them are standing together in front of that sign, on a biking tour in the Alps, so what is the problem? IMO Dan is free to post whatever he likes on their FB and that's about as significant as it will get.

 

[capitola51]

I do recall DC mentioning that. Note that these are organized hunting trips in these ads, though I presume the idea would also apply to non-organized trips. And pandemic stay-at-home orders are in effect for France, so nyet on the hunting trips. The odds of any kind of induced-by-another-person mishap would be an extreme reach. The odds are much higher that ED had an accident of some kind, though very possibly not in the area where she indicated vaguely where she sort of perhaps might be going. IMO.
Take the scenario out to its logical conclusion.....If a hunter shoots at a moving object, s/he will presumably check out the object after shooting to see what s/he shot. There's the whoops and hollers, gloating 'n' all, selfies for dinner parties, a drink or 2 for celebration. This is essential to a hunting trip, and not a minor feature.
Instead s/he gathers that s/he has really blundered. So what does s/he do? Let me think....Remove 100+lbs (approx 50 Kg) of dead-weight remains? Drag them somewhere? To the treeline down in the valley? To a hole in a rock without falling over and having an accident him/herself? Or, maybe, dismember for portage?
This all takes equipment, help, a mule, a guy who works out in a gym 3x a day, a bunch more unscrupulous big guys to help, an ATV, a LARGE backpack for pieces..... And/or you're lugging a bleeding body out on your back? The days are very short, darkness is descending...
I'm sorry to be so distastefully bald, but that's what happens when you start projecting outcomes for different (impossible) scenarios: they soon look ludicrous.
And:
The K-9's didn't pick up any scent corresponding to "hunting accident".
There's a lockdown.
How's a car getting anywhere close without being noticed?
ED never made it to the Refuge, per LE.
The local LE are super-experienced in search and rescue, and they have been diligent in their efforts. IMO their perspective oughtn't to be second-guessed.

I did a bit more research on the hunting angle. The Chamois are a special breed only found in the Pyrenees. A common cartridge is a 270 Winchester Magnum, the ranges typically 200 to 400 meters. 6.5 Creedmore cartridge is also used. These are flat-shooting intermediate rifle cartridges ideal for deer. It can take two or three days to locate and kill a Chamois and this is permit based trophy hunting, not “shoot the first thing that might be a Chamois” hunting, so I imagine each animal is positively identified with binoculars - chosen, even - before the rifle is allowed to be loaded and the stalk begun. I also speculate that every hunter needs to show some evidence of having taken a gun safety class before being allowed to purchase a permit.
An additional data point I found is that a lot of this hunting is done on private estates.
I propose that the chance of ED being taken in the speculative way described is so close to zero that for all practical purposes it is zero, and not worth further consideration, but still not enough evidence to rule out entirely.
The valuable takeaway is that some of the hunters are likely to be off-trail, even if they used the trails to hike/ATV to the hunting area, so they do extend the search area out away from the known trails somewhat even if they are doing that inadvertently.
Ref: Chamois Hunt in the Pyrenees