Found Deceased Spain - Esther Dingley, from UK, missing in the Pyrenees, November 2020 #5

[Steve13]

How did she get from the Summit to the van when the plan was to hike to Refuge de Venasque - but there's no evidence that she arrived?

Walked down the hill and hitched back along the road (i.e. the way she came)?

 

[Steve13]

How did she get from the Summit to the van when the plan was to hike to Refuge de Venasque - but there's no evidence that she arrived?

Walked down the hill and hitched back along the road (i.e. the way she came)

Whilst many still surmise she could be in the middle of a very deep lake, this is only believed possible if she fell from a height and momentum kept her going. It’s the one area I wish they would go and search well and discount. My gut feeling is though, if she fell from high enough to keep rolling deep enough- there would be some evidence of her torn clothing, torn rucksack, items from her rucksack that would be visible, or at least something that would have floated to the surface. To me it’s more plausible she fell between rocks, whilst the lake is deep, it’s not a dramatic drop into a deep lake, this can be seen in lots of the photographs, the edges are much shallower and would provide a force to reduce momentum quite quickly once you hit the water.

Interesting thoughts. Cops have discounted probably on the basis of physics and experience? Nothing around water and nothing floting. Resource allocation and priorities important too?

 

[otto]

Hi @otto, nice to see you posting again.

You and I have been aligned on many sleuthing adventures with this case. But one area we diverge in our thinking is what I'd call, suspending the 'reality' ED and perhaps DC has painted for others. We largely know about ED's intended route on 21-24/11 from DC and perhaps her Father who she also spoke to before embarking on 21/11, IIRC. And there was at least one mention in MSM that ED recorded her trip with 'authorities'. But I don't think that has been repeated or confirmed. So ED's planned route was in essence what ED told others - what she wanted them to know. There is a good possibility that route was her true intent and perhaps even her actual path.

However, I posit that humans are unpredictable animals. Even if we set off for an intended route, we may be sidelined or simply change our mind and go a different way. Or we have the capacity to intentionally mislead others if we think it is in our best interest to do so. Just because ED told others of her intended 3-4 day trek, I believe it is reasonable for any searcher, law enforcement officer, sleuther or even family member, to question whether she followed through on her intent and how far she traveled.

To that point, on day one (21/11) of her last trek, ED appeared to diverge from her intended route by staying the night at Cabane de la Besurtas after summiting pic de Sauvegarde. She summited early on 21/11, at about 1pm, IIRC. So why she stayed at a trailhead, near a parking lot and not at Refuge de Vanesque, Cabane du Cirque de la Glere, or Hospice de France is a mystery. She certainly had plenty of time for a safe trek that afternoon to any of those three refuges on her intended route.

We also know ED may have been low on provisions, given her recent past hiking experience (as recalled by LA, the gal she stayed with at a refuge) and her request for fruit or something fresh from the Olympic skier she encountered on her way up Sauvegarde on 22/11. So perhaps she realized she was unprepared and opted to retreat down back to the Cabane she stayed 21/11 or perhaps even her van to stock up. Or perhaps she felt unwell while descending from the summit after 4:10pm (e.g. Covid symptoms, menstrual cramps, food poisoning, emotionally upset, etc.) and decided not to continue on her trek. Recall there was no cell service as she descended from the summit and there was no cell service at the Cabane de la Besurtas. So if she had changed her mind, ED could not have notified anyone until she got closer to Banasque (8-9 miles away) and her van. And what if, as many have postulated here, ED was orchestrating a voluntary disappearance - her stated itinerary could have been a ruse.

So given all that, and the full intent of sleuthing being the analysis of all available data from many different angles and permutations, I go back to my "10 common possible scenarios of ED's path" (#490). Many here believe ED never made it over the Port de Vanesque on 22/11. I think it is that suspension of 'reality' that might lead a fellow sleuther to reasonably consider the possibility ED ended up at her van either 22/11 or 23/11 and perhaps did so by hitching a ride with someone from a parking lot.

That said, I think we may never know where ED actually ended up given, IMO, the likelihood she diverted from her original itinerary and perhaps significantly.

You are quite right. I want to rule out suicide, but what you wrote reminds me that suicide is a possibility. She was unpredictable during this hike, she did deviate from her plan, she was unprepared for the hike, the late afternoon trek to the summit is unwise, and more.

If suicide, then one of the lakes seems likely. Perhaps one of her trekking poles will surface in the next year.

 

[Ruthbullock]

You are quite right. I want to rule out suicide, but what you wrote reminds me that suicide is a possibility. She was unpredictable during this hike, she did deviate from her plan, she was unprepared for the hike, the late afternoon trek to the summit is unwise, and more.

If suicide, then one of the lakes seems likely. Perhaps one of her trekking poles will surface in the next year.

It is virtually impossible to commit suicide in a lake- you would have to keep wading whilst your adrenalin would be fighting it every step of the way. It’s not an area where you can jump into the middle of a lake. If the intention was suicide, why not abandon your backpack- by the time it was found it would be too late to help, but would at least give family closure, plus a rucksack would potentially make you more buoyant for a short period of time prolonging your death. If you wanted to end your life that way whilst wearing a backpack you would empty your stuff and fill it with rocks- again leaving some evidence.

 

[ChiCubs2016]

It is virtually impossible to commit suicide in a lake- you would have to keep wading whilst your adrenalin would be fighting it every step of the way. It’s not an area where you can jump into the middle of a lake. If the intention was suicide, why not abandon your backpack- by the time it was found it would be too late to help, but would at least give family closure, plus a rucksack would potentially make you more buoyant for a short period of time prolonging your death. If you wanted to end your life that way whilst wearing a backpack you would empty your stuff and fill it with rocks- again leaving some evidence.

It is not impossible. And although it is not the most common form it does happen. I am not saying this is what happened to ED but I do not think we can say it is not possible.

 

[Ruthbullock]

It is not impossible. And although it is not the most common form it does happen. I am not saying this is what happened to ED but I do not think we can say it is not possible.

Hence the virtually at the beginning- but if that is your chosen route out of life- you would either discard it or weight your backpack- you wouldn’t dive in with something that would effectively float. I would love them to search the boums, but I think it is the least likely location unless someone else was involved.

 

[ChiCubs2016]

Hence the virtually at the beginning- but if that is your chosen route out of life- you would either discard it or weight your backpack- you wouldn’t dive in with something that would effectively float. I would love them to search the boums, but I think it is the least likely location unless someone else was involved.

I am really torn with this being an accident or self-harm. Either way I hope ED is eventually found so her family can have peace. I am not a hiker and looking at the pictures it all looks dangerous.

 

[RedHaus]

If suicide, then one of the lakes seems likely. Perhaps one of her trekking poles will surface in the next year.

SBM

Whilst many still surmise she could be in the middle of a very deep lake, this is only believed possible if she fell from a height and momentum kept her going.

SBM

The gory details of why corpses float: https://www.scienceabc.com/eyeopeners/why-do-corpses-float.html

SBM

Cops have discounted probably on the basis of physics and experience? Nothing around water and nothing floting. Resource allocation and priorities important too?

SBM

Thank you all. I have given the 'ED-committed-suicide-by-drowning-in-Boum-de-Vanesque-on-22/11' a lot of thought for the past few months. I can't explain why, but that scenario draws my attention more than any other. To me, the data fit. And in fact, I have considered all of the same thoughts you shared here today.

I won't bore everyone with why I think ED could have been suicidal. I shared all that long ago in prior threads, as did others. So what I'd like to do is consider a few details I have mulled over but not yet shared here. First, what was ED doing the afternoon of 21/11 after she descended from the summit of Pic de Sauvegarde until she re-summitted the following mid-afternoon? As we have previously established, that is about a 26 hour period unaccounted for by the DC dossier, ED social media, etc.

If ED did commit suicide by drowning, I wonder if during that mysterious 26 hour period ED wrote good-bye letters to DC, family and friends that she tucked into a waterproof bag in her backpack. I've thought ED could also have taken time in solitude to do yoga and pray, say good-bye to her life and find peace with her decision.

I also have considered that ED went back to the summit of pic de Sauvegarde on 22/11 for the sole purpose of sending and receiving final communications with loved ones, including a final video chat with DC, since she had cell service up there. And I think she summitted so late so she could see a final sunset from the pic. To me, the ED versions of her texts with DC from the summit (as we've analyzed in the dossier) were so disjointed and at times illogical because she was already dissociating.

And finally, I have contemplated why ED's backpack appeared so "heavy" to the Olympic skier she encountered on her way up to summit. I think some of us here have discussed why it appeared so heavy to the skier given what she carrying, especially if she was lacking food provisions. What if ED was carrying rocks in her backpack?

So back to all of your thoughts today.

I think if someone wanted to commit suicide by drowning in a 151 foot deep alpine lake, and didn't want to be discovered for some time, then they would do it after the sun set and off season to minimize anyone seeing them. They would also carefully attach all their belongings (e.g. trekking poles) to their person. They would carry / attach dense weight to keep their body submerged as long as possible. And they'd walk or swim as far as their body would allow, towards the center of the lake to get to the deepest part before succumbing to hypothermia and/or asphyxia. And if that is how ED voluntarily disappeared, then I deeply hope she is resting in peace.

I am sorry to ED's friends and family for sharing such graphic thoughts. But I do so only with the intent of helping to find dear ED.

 

[Grouse]

Hence the virtually at the beginning- but if that is your chosen route out of life- you would either discard it or weight your backpack- you wouldn’t dive in with something that would effectively float. I would love them to search the boums, but I think it is the least likely location unless someone else was involved.

I tend to agree it's an unlikely suicide scenario, though not impossible as @ChiCubs2016 has said. But as you raise the possibility that someone else could have been involved, it might be a strong contender for a location to dispose of a body knowing the lakes would soon be frozen and not searched for months, and not accessible to sniffer dogs. And, actually the mere fact that so many seem to have dismissed the possibility for various reasons and still do now (earlier in the thread it was about risk to divers, later it was that it's so unlikely, they are too clear, too shallow at the edges, no walking poles found etc) makes me think it might be the perfect location.

 

[Grouse]

SBM

SBM

SBM

SBM

Thank you all. I have given the 'ED-committed-suicide-by-drowning-in-Boum-de-Vanesque-on-22/11' a lot of thought for the past few months. I can't explain why, but that scenario draws my attention more than any other. To me, the data fit. And in fact, I have considered all of the same thoughts you shared here today.

I won't bore everyone with why I think ED could have been suicidal. I shared all that long ago in prior threads, as did others. So what I'd like to do is consider a few details I have mulled over but not yet shared here. First, what was ED doing the afternoon of 21/11 after she descended from the summit of Pic de Sauvegarde until she re-summitted the following mid-afternoon? As we have previously established, that is about a 26 hour period unaccounted for by the DC dossier, ED social media, etc.

If ED did commit suicide by drowning, I wonder if during that mysterious 26 hour period ED wrote good-bye letters to DC, family and friends that she tucked into a waterproof bag in her backpack. I've thought ED could also have taken time in solitude to do yoga and pray, say good-bye to her life and find peace with her decision.

I also have considered that ED went back to the summit of pic de Sauvegarde on 22/11 for the sole purpose of sending and receiving final communications with loved ones, including a final video chat with DC, since she had cell service up there. And I think she summitted so late so she could see a final sunset from the pic. To me, the ED versions of her texts with DC from the summit (as we've analyzed in the dossier) were so disjointed and at times illogical because she was already dissociating.

And finally, I have contemplated why ED's backpack appeared so "heavy" to the Olympic skier she encountered on her way up to summit. I think some of us here have discussed why it appeared so heavy to the skier given what she carrying, especially if she was lacking food provisions. What if ED was carrying rocks in her backpack?

So back to all of your thoughts today.

I think if someone wanted to commit suicide by drowning in a 151 foot deep alpine lake, and didn't want to be discovered for some time, then they would do it after the sun set and off season to minimize anyone seeing them. They would also carefully attach all their belongings (e.g. trekking poles) to their person. They would carry / attach dense weight to keep their body submerged as long as possible. And they'd walk or swim as far as their body would allow, towards the center of the lake to get to the deepest part before succumbing to hypothermia and/or asphyxia. And if that is how ED voluntarily disappeared, then I deeply hope she is resting in peace.

I am sorry to ED's friends and family for sharing such graphic thoughts. But I do so only with the intent of helping to find dear ED.

I somehow didn't see this post when I posted mine just after , but you do make a strong case for this as a possible scenario. Suicide has been a theory I often return to in my thoughts, the woods rather than the lakes I had thought more likely until seeing the GPS tracklogs of the extensive searches there . And yes good point that we all need to remember and be sensitive about ED's friends and family who may see this thread.

 

[annpats]

It is possible to drown yourself in a lake. Only a few months ago, Londoner Richard Okorogheye, who was just 19 years old, did just that in a small lake in Epping Forest. It took several days of searching to find him, and this was in Essex, not up a rural mountain.

People also commit suicide by going into the sea, or throwing themselves off a boat, so it is possible.

I'm not sure if this is what Esther did though.

An accident on land would be more likely in my opinion. She may have gone off trail, fallen and become hidden by foliage or rocks.

MOO.

 

[RedHaus]

It is possible to drown yourself in a lake. Only a few months ago, Londoner Richard Okorogheye, who was just 19 years old, did just that in a small lake in Epping Forest. It took several days of searching to find him, and this was in Essex, not up a rural mountain.

People also commit suicide by going into the sea, or throwing themselves off a boat, so it is possible.

I'm not sure if this is what Esther did though.

An accident on land would be more likely in my opinion. She may have gone off trail, fallen and become hidden by foliage or rocks.

MOO.

Hi @annpats. I agree with you. I don't want to belabor this point, but I do think its important for us sleuthers to have some facts about suicide-by-drowning in hand.

"According to the CDC, more than 44,000 people commit suicide each year in the U.S., with firearms and suffocation as the leading causes. Just over 1 percent of suicides are attributed to drowning, and in 2015, 509 people killed themselves this way, CDC numbers show."

There may be more scientific journals to quote from, but in my haste (dinner time!) I was able to at least find this factoid, albeit old numbers.

Source: Suicide by drowning uncommon but does happen, investigators say

 

[Steve13]

How did she get from the Summit to the van when the plan was to hike to Refuge de Venasque - but there's no evidence that she arrived?

Who says that was the plan?

 

[RickshawFan]

News articles point out that Dingley has not surfaced in the lake beneath the summit, claiming that drones cannot see her on or below the surface. With a depth of 150 feet, and a heavy back pack, how long would it take her to surface? She vanished in November, so she would be perfectly preserved under the frozen lake. In the Summer melt, would she warm up enough for a bone to surface, or would she be frozen for a few years before there is evidence?

What did her pack weigh again? That info was available in the Dan missing person dosier? How much did she weigh? Just curious.

There's no evidence ED took everything on the dossier equipment list (she could have left it at the gite or in the van), and some crucial things were missing (like socks, first aid, toilet paper, toothbrush.....etc.), so it's hard to estimate a weight.
If she didn't have any food, and her water bag was empty.....these alone would have weighed about 10lbs if she had been stocked per protocol.

 

[annpats]

..so it's hard to estimate a weight. If she didn't have any food, and her water bag was empty.....these alone would have weighed about 10lbs if she had been stocked per protocol.

Hmmm, 10 pounds is about 4.5kg.
Sounds a little on the heavy side maybe? Then again, I suppose her sleeping bag alone may have weighed about 1kg.

 

[RickshawFan]

I also have considered that ED went back to the summit of pic de Sauvegarde on 22/11 for the sole purpose of sending and receiving final communications with loved ones, including a final video chat with DC, since she had cell service up there. And I think she summitted so late so she could see a final sunset from the pic. To me, the ED versions of her texts with DC from the summit (as we've analyzed in the dossier) were so disjointed and at times illogical because she was already dissociating.

Snipped for focus.
This is what I've come to believe, too, namely that the whole reason for the 2nd trip up the Pic was because ED knew from experience she was guaranteed to have a signal up there.

Regarding notes..... I've always thought that the investigative officer who was spotted in the back of the van one night was actually looking for note(s). If s/he reclined on the back mattress, that would be a good way to figure out what was in someone's head as far as finding a note. Would it be in a crevice between the cushions? Feel around. Now I notice this little place over here..... Oh, and there's always the zip for the cushion... Something there? If you rolled over a bit and reached under, was there a crack to put something in? If you scrunched up in a fetal position, where could you get to with a hand? Sometimes, looking at something doesn't bring answers, but acting it out very well might, and this might very well have looked VERY odd to a random passerby.

Especially in the close quarters of a van, an investigator can't very well stoop and look under a bed/bench. There's no room. They'd have to lie on top and haul themselves head first over the edge and look that way.

 

[drama_farmer]

My mind keeps dragging me back to that comment she made about taking "a dip into France." (Paraphrasing).
Wouldn't be surprised if she was found much lower on the mountain on that side, perhaps just a short distance off the trail. IMO

 

[RickshawFan]

Hmmm, 10 pounds is about 4.5kg.
Sounds a little on the heavy side maybe? Then again, I suppose her sleeping bag alone may have weighed about 1kg.

For efficiency sake, I'm using a conversion 1kg=2lbs.
That number of 4.5kg would be for food appropriate for the length of trip and 2L of water only, and it's a very low number. It doesn't represent the whole pack. 2L of water is 2 kg right there. Her food weight per protocol should actually be substantially more than 2.5 kg. You calculate 1kg per person per day plus one extra meal and a couple of extra energy bars.
I forget what sleeping bag she had—maybe a Rab 10C or so? A summer bag. So, yeah, prolly an ultralight down one would be maybe 3/4kg, but I'm guessing. My 700 fill ultralight down bag is around 2 lbs, but it's warmer.

With enough stuff aboard to be safe, the pack with enough food, 2L of water, sleep stuff, 10 essentials, pack weight of that model pack, layers, technology, "kitchen" (e.g. stove and fuel), filter, the tarp tent she had, a ground cloth or tarp.... IMO The load would have had to weigh at least 32 lbs. (approx 16 kg), if it had the necessaries for the trip described.
Recall, As Redhaus reminds us ^^^^, a person who encountered ED on the trail said she had a big pack. The pack I've delineated would have looked very heavy on her because it's the outer limit of what that pack model will carry. But it also would have looked very LARGE, not just because the conditions demanded a lot of stuff, but because of the way the pack is designed. It puts alot of bulk away from the core of the body.
One of the reasons I hate that particular pack, in fact, is precisely because when loaded it pulls you backwards, ESPECIALLY women. These packs make you jerk every time you take a step (awful on the back, hips, and legs). No matter how fit or experienced, women don't have the upper body strength to compensate for the back-pull and prevent the jerking. (Even guys complain about it, though.) Consider we are talking about the possibility of having an accident on the Pic slopes, and the person we're concerned with has a pack that jerks you off balance every step even in the best conditions...

 

[RickshawFan]

Hence the virtually at the beginning- but if that is your chosen route out of life- you would either discard it or weight your backpack- you wouldn’t dive in with something that would effectively float. I would love them to search the boums, but I think it is the least likely location unless someone else was involved.

When you're wearing a full overnight pack, it would not at all occur to you that it would float. Trust me on this....

 

[RedHaus]

My mind keeps dragging me back to that comment she made about taking "a dip into France." (Paraphrasing).
Wouldn't be surprised if she was found much lower on the mountain on that side, perhaps just a short distance off the trail. IMO

Thank you @drama_farmer for reminding me of that tidbit because it also plays into the possible scenario that ED may have committed suicide by drowning in Boum de Vanesque on 22/11. It always struck me as odd that ED said in a text at 16:06 on 22/11 (per the DC dossier): “Still in the same area. Tomorrow heading for Port de le Glere or something spelt like that. Might dip into France. Hoping Refuge Venasque has a winter room. Keep you posted when can xx” [BBM].

Could "dip into France" be a metaphor from ED that she intended to drown in Boum de Vanesque (in France) a few hours later?