Stranger Abduction Theories #2

[angelmom]

As for getting him in the car without making a huge commotion, I recently had a moment that sent chills down my spine.

We were looking at cars. I have only driven an SUV or minivan for almost 15 years, and my DH has had an SUV or pickup. I haven't paid attention to the trunk of a car in ages.

The salesman was showing us how simple it is to leave one or both back seats down to make more room in the trunk, or to get access to the trunk from the back seat. Every car we looked at had this feature, and every one was a simple movement to flip back up.

I had the sudden flash of imagination of someone looking like they were carefully buckling a child into the back seat, while really forcing him through that hole to the trunk and pushing the seat back in place. Who hasn't watched a child argue about buckling up and given the "parent" no more thought than a brief "been there done that" smile?

It made me nauseous. Probably didn't happen that way, but really made me question if it really would have been obvious had Kyron been taken by a stranger.

 

[GrainneDhu]

Not to mention how many people go off with another adult as a date, someone they don't even know, and hope for the best...and we know how often that goes terribly wrong. I think adults are fooling themselves if they think their child can't be made to go off with a strange adult.

Looking for Mr Goodbar?

Perhaps it is a self-comforting mechanism. It can sometimes seem to a parent like the world is full of danger to their children, so it is comforting to think "it couldn't happen to MY child, because MY child knows stranger danger, knows to put up a fuss, etc."

And just to inject a note of realism here, it is several times more likely for a child to be struck by lightning than it is for a child to be abducted by a non-family member from anywhere.

 

[ThoughtFox]

Although I am highly suspicious of TH, and I think she is probably involved, there is always the possibility that she is innocent.

I have racked my brains trying to figure out other scenarios. The thing is that the school seems like the very last place for a random stranger abduction, if in fact he was really inside by his classroom at the time. It seems too dangerous a place to try and abduct a random child. Perhaps if he had run outside to find TH because he forgot something he needed for the talent show or something, and he was already in the parking lot he might be vulnerable.

When my oldest was about 5 he came running out to me one morning as I was pulling out of the parking lot. He looked frightened to death and I could not figure out what was wrong at first.
(snip)
But anyway, NOBODY saw him run out to my car. I had extra clothes in the trunk and wipes for the baby so he cleaned up , changed and I took him back to class, without comment. But there was no Science Fair, so very few extra people out and about. But it did make me think that if he had wanted to he might have left the main school area himself.

(snip)

...we had a long term issue with a mother who was not allowed to visit her children due to a custodial issue and a past attempt to take them out of the country. We were all on high alert, but she still tried.

The one time that she almost succeeded was when she hid in the girls bathroom and waited, hidden in the stall until one of her daughters came in. Luckily we had a rule requiring 'bathroom partners'- so the other girl ran to the office. But the mom had enough time to take her 7 yr old by the hand and get out to the parking lot before she was stopped.

But I think you just answered your own question. Most children are abducted by parents or other relatives, not strangers. In your son's case, he knew you might still be in the parking lot, as Kyron would have known that TH was possibly still out there too. In the other case you mention, the mother was lurking around and the child went with her obediantly.

So every scenario we come up with leads back to possible obediance to the stepmother in this case.

Most of the warnings about school abductions where I live have been with non-custodial parents or even grandparents trying to contact or abduct children. I recall once a man came onto the elementary school playground during recess, having opened a gate and approached his own child. The teachers were quite alarmed that he didn't go to the office first, and the school took measure to lock more doors and keep a better eye on the parking lots (although there were two and both in areas where no one could see from the windows). We've also had a few cases in which ex-spouses of teachers have come onto campus to do violence but that has nothing to do with the kids.

 

[GrainneDhu]

Although I am highly suspicious of TH, and I think she is probably involved, there is always the possibility that she is innocent.

I have racked my brains trying to figure out other scenarios. The thing is that the school seems like the very last place for a random stranger abduction, if in fact he was really inside by his classroom at the time. It seems too dangerous a place to try and abduct a random child. Perhaps if he had run outside to find TH because he forgot something he needed for the talent show or something, and he was already in the parking lot he might be vulnerable.

When my oldest was about 5 he came running out to me one morning as I was pulling out of the parking lot. He looked frightened to death and I could not figure out what was wrong at first. I stopped the car and got out quickly and he jumped in through the drivers door and then I saw the wet spot on his jeans. He was downright mortified that someone might see that his pants were wet. Apparently some older boys were in the younger kids bathroom and he did not want to go in there and then when he went into class the teacher said no, you just had recess so wait. LOL poor kid.

But anyway, NOBODY saw him run out to my car. I had extra clothes in the trunk and wipes for the baby so he cleaned up , changed and I took him back to class, without comment. But there was no Science Fair, so very few extra people out and about. But it did make me think that if he had wanted to he might have left the main school area himself.

I worked as a 'Playground Supervisor' for the kids school for several years. Essentially my job was to protect the kids from each other, and from random strangers, and to make sure they did not try and leave the campus. All of the possible exit gates were kept locked except the main door which was right by the front office. Even then, we had a long term issue with a mother who was not allowed to visit her children due to a custodial issue and a past attempt to take them out of the country. We were all on high alert, but she still tried.

The one time that she almost succeeded was when she hid in the girls bathroom and waited, hidden in the stall until one of her daughters came in. Luckily we had a rule requiring 'bathroom partners'- so the other girl ran to the office. But the mom had enough time to take her 7 yr old by the hand and get out to the parking lot before she was stopped. I think the bathroom was a potential trouble spot for Kyron if he was abducted. As previously noted, a perp could go unnoticed with a large tote on Science Fair day.

I agree with others that there may have been someone grooming him for a future abduction. But I think everyone who worked there was accounted for
in the aftermath. However there may have been a parent or stepparent or an older brother or baby sitter ? Someone who might have said, 'Kyron, help me carry this out to the van.'

Early on, in the first couple days, I wondered if Kyron may have run away from school and gotten lost trying to walk home because he'd been teased or bullied by older children. The early reports described him as being shy and on the timid side, which could have made him a target for teasing. I think if he had gotten lost on his own, though, he would have been found by now.

I still think it is possible that Kyron left the school on his own, maybe to try to catch TMH before she drove off, and was scooped up by a predator.

It's a very rare crime but it does happen. Ted Bundy abducted not one but two of his victims from school grounds. The first one, Debra Kent, was abducted during a school play attended by approximately 1800 people. No one saw a thing.

The second victim, Kimberly Leach, had a class in a temporary building and then the next class in the main school building. She forgot her purse in the temporary building and went out to retrieve it. What were the odds that on she would be abducted in part because of a random event that her abductor could not have caused or arranged? And yet, it happened. It was such an unlikely event, who could even calculate the odds of all the different events: Ted Bundy picking that particular school to scope out on that particular day, Kimberly forgetting her purse at exactly the time Ted Bundy was prowling around, etc. Of course, now that it has happened, we know the risk was 100%.

I still wonder if some predator, maybe attracted by the science fair sign outside the school, decided to check out the parking lot and just happened to be there when Kyron went to the parking lot for some reason. It seems so farfetched... and yet, Ted Bundy (and a number of other school related predators) prove that it can happen.

 

[katydid23]

Early on, in the first couple days, I wondered if Kyron may have run away from school and gotten lost trying to walk home because he'd been teased or bullied by older children. The early reports described him as being shy and on the timid side, which could have made him a target for teasing. I think if he had gotten lost on his own, though, he would have been found by now.

I still think it is possible that Kyron left the school on his own, maybe to try to catch TMH before she drove off, and was scooped up by a predator.

It's a very rare crime but it does happen. Ted Bundy abducted not one but two of his victims from school grounds. The first one, Debra Kent, was abducted during a school play attended by approximately 1800 people. No one saw a thing.

The second victim, Kimberly Leach, had a class in a temporary building and then the next class in the main school building. She forgot her purse in the temporary building and went out to retrieve it. What were the odds that on she would be abducted in part because of a random event that her abductor could not have caused or arranged? And yet, it happened. It was such an unlikely event, who could even calculate the odds of all the different events: Ted Bundy picking that particular school to scope out on that particular day, Kimberly forgetting her purse at exactly the time Ted Bundy was prowling around, etc. Of course, now that it has happened, we know the risk was 100%.

I still wonder if some predator, maybe attracted by the science fair sign outside the school, decided to check out the parking lot and just happened to be there when Kyron went to the parking lot for some reason. It seems so farfetched... and yet, Ted Bundy (and a number of other school related predators) prove that it can happen.

I didn't know Bundy had taken any kids from their schools. That is so scary and tragic. I agree that Kyron might have run off the campus by himself for some reason. It was an odd day at school--things were not routine. He may have felt unprepared or felt he had forgotten something. It was also a day that extra people were milling about. The talent show would bring perps to the campus too. Scary stuff.

 

[GrainneDhu]

Yeah but even if the kid goes into the car without a problem, wouldn't they eventually realize while the car is driving away that hey, this isn't right and then start a commotion? Like "Hey, I have to go to school. Why are you driving away from my school?" and then panic sets in?

According to a study there are 115 kids kidnapped every year by strangers. About 25 of those kids are between the ages of 6-11. 2% of stereotypical kidnappings (which include stranger abductions) are from a school, but it says there have been too few cases to make an accurate guess. In 4% of stereotypical kidnappings, the child was not returned and not located, although it says once again that there are too few cases of that nature to make an accurate guess. If Kyron was taken by a stranger, there was a 40% chance he was murdered.

I've thought all along that the window of detection and therefore danger for whoever took Kyron was very short, probably much less than two minutes. If Kyron got into the vehicle willingly, then that makes it much, much less probable that anyone noticed.

No one knows how/when Kyron got into the vehicle but so far as is known, he was not spotted entering anyone's vehicle. I think that shows that whatever happened wasn't as risky or high profile as I would have imagined before this happened. Then again, I'm not a predator, so I don't look at the world that way. It's a struggle for me to spot the opportunities that predators see automatically.

Seven year olds are not very large people and Kyron in particular only weighed 50 pounds (if I recall correctly). Once he was inside the perpetrator's vehicle, I think it would be very easy to either fool him ("your mom got hurt and she sent me to bring you to the hospital to help her") or control him via force without anyone outside the vehicle noticing a thing.

Once he was away from the school and therefore anyone likely to know him, the risks for the perpetrator went way down. At that point, he would have just been another kid in a vehicle. So once he was more than about 30 seconds away from the school (assuming driving at 25 miles per hour), his chances of being noticed dropped to next to nothing.

 

[carbuff]

Yeah but even if the kid goes into the car without a problem, wouldn't they eventually realize while the car is driving away that hey, this isn't right and then start a commotion? Like "Hey, I have to go to school. Why are you driving away from my school?" and then panic sets in?

According to a study there are 115 kids kidnapped every year by strangers. About 25 of those kids are between the ages of 6-11. 2% of stereotypical kidnappings (which include stranger abductions) are from a school, but it says there have been too few cases to make an accurate guess. In 4% of stereotypical kidnappings, the child was not returned and not located, although it says once again that there are too few cases of that nature to make an accurate guess. If Kyron was taken by a stranger, there was a 40% chance he was murdered.

Once the child is in the car, it doesn't really matter what kind of panic sets in. They're under the adult's control, and it's very unlikely anybody else is going to notice.

 

[pdx]

I know that Kyron was wearing a CSI shirt the day he went missing; was it ever revealed that he liked to watch CSI?

No one from the family has ever said that Kyron watched CSI.
There was an exhibit at OMSI, the science museum, on the theme of CSI the tv show. OMSI always has interactive exhibits, you know the kind of place?
There are photos from TMH's facebook account that showed the family visiting the exhibit and the logo from that tshirt matches the t's they offered for sale there.
Due to the size of the tshirt and other photos, the best guess has been that it was older brother J's tshirt that Kyron inherited. There is a photo set from another day, at the zoo IIRC, that show Kyron wearing that tshirt.

Your idea "I know that adults can fool kids but if the abductor told Kyron, "Your parents died and you're living with me," would a 7-year-old accept that explanation right away?" has come up before and I think it has merit. Dead, or some version of that (you're no longer wanted, you made trouble & they gave you away etc)

 

[Morag]

We know that none-none- of the doors were locked that day. Thanks to the GK, we know that kids came out -apparently sans adult- the door nearest Kyron's classroom, at least once. If those kids came out alone, so could Kyron have. On one of the many photos on this board, there were several which made it obvious that once someone started down the steps near that door, there was no visibility from within the school. Of course, we don't know whether Kyron went out that door, or what might have happened to him if he did. But can we deny that he was at least as likely to have exited that way as any other?

 

[eileenhawkeye]

I am open to the possibility that Kyron was snatched by a stranger. It may be rare, but there are about 115 cases a year so it does happen. Unfortunately, I think if he was kidnapped by a stranger, he was probably murdered back in June. According to a study on missing kids, the number of kids kidnapped by a stranger and then never found, is so rare that they couldn't even come up with an estimate of cases. I think for cases like Jacob Wetterling and Morgan Nick, where the child was most likely taken by a stranger and never found, they were probably murdered and LE just hasn't found their body yet. Maybe I am just too pessimistic but I think cases like Steven Staynor and Jaycee Dugard are extremely, extremely rare (that's 2 cases in a span of like 30 years); that if Kyron was kidnapped by a stranger, the odds seem almost impossible that he's still alive.

 

[jwinchester]

One possibility I don't recall seeing come up is that Kyron, like his teacher, may have thought his appointment was that day and gone outside to wait to be picked up. A predator could easily have been skulking around -- the fair was advertised as being open to the public, and while stranger abductions are rare, they also tend to happen in moments of sudden opportunity. If an evil person was there just to indulge a sick need to watch or be around the kids, and Kyron wandered out unattended...

That poor kid. It's heartbreaking no matter what happened.

Rare things do happen -- someone wins the lottery almost every time.The odds for winning the lottery are astronomically high -- unless you hold the winning ticket, in which case they are 1:1. That might sound obvious, but there's an important subtle point about the use of statistics as predictive measurements inside it.

If all you know is that a child went missing, it's safe to guess that the child was taken by a family member. If all you know is that someone has a lottery ticket, it's safe to guess they have not won. But once the situation becomes more specific, you have to recalculate. You cannot apply general statistics to specific circumstances, because they have their own entirely separate set of odds. Knowing that people usually lose the lottery does not tell you that someone who has 5 out of 6 of the right numbers must necessarily have the 6th one wrong.

 

[eileenhawkeye]

Once the child is in the car, it doesn't really matter what kind of panic sets in. They're under the adult's control, and it's very unlikely anybody else is going to notice.

Then, IMO, that makes it more likely that the stranger is either going to kill the child or drop them off somewhere, both of which happens in the majority of stranger abduction cases. If the child is screaming and crying, why would the kidnapper want to deal with that?

ETA: An older child or teenager might realize that if they control their emotions, stay quiet, they might be able to get out of the situation. A 7-year-old is more likely to start sobbing, etc, and not be too rational about the situation.

 

[Billylee]

No one from the family has ever said that Kyron watched CSI.
There was an exhibit at OMSI, the science museum, on the theme of CSI the tv show. OMSI always has interactive exhibits, you know the kind of place?
There are photos from TMH's facebook account that showed the family visiting the exhibit and the logo from that tshirt matches the t's they offered for sale there.
Due to the size of the tshirt and other photos, the best guess has been that it was older brother J's tshirt that Kyron inherited. There is a photo set from another day, at the zoo IIRC, that show Kyron wearing that tshirt.

Your idea "I know that adults can fool kids but if the abductor told Kyron, "Your parents died and you're living with me," would a 7-year-old accept that explanation right away?" has come up before and I think it has merit. Dead, or some version of that (you're no longer wanted, you made trouble & they gave you away etc)

Also on the original FB pictures were pictures of Kaine wearing a CSI T-shirt, so I'm guessing he was also a fan of CSI along with Terri. And yes, I remember reading somewhere there was one article about how much Kyron looked up to his step brother Jxxxx and wanted to be like him and would wear his t-shirts as hand-me-downs. But, according to the following statement by Kaine, it sounds like if anyone let Kyron stay up to watch CSI, it wasn't Terri:

Terri Horman "has historical problems with the abuse of alcohol, which have impaired her functioning since Kiara's birth," Kaine Horman wrote. "Often, (Terri) would pass out on the couch around 7:00 or 8:00 p.m. after drinking heavily and would wake up on and off for the rest of the night."

http://www.komonews.com/news/local/105830803.html

Of course, I suppose, she could have stayed sober on Thursday nights just to watch CSI maybe.

 

[pdx]

Of course, I suppose, she could have stayed sober on Thursday nights just to watch CSI maybe.

lol, like me & Survivor then. :crazy:

 

[Beatrice]

No one from the family has ever said that Kyron watched CSI.
There was an exhibit at OMSI, the science museum, on the theme of CSI the tv show. OMSI always has interactive exhibits, you know the kind of place?
There are photos from TMH's facebook account that showed the family visiting the exhibit and the logo from that tshirt matches the t's they offered for sale there.
Due to the size of the tshirt and other photos, the best guess has been that it was older brother J's tshirt that Kyron inherited. There is a photo set from another day, at the zoo IIRC, that show Kyron wearing that tshirt.

Your idea "I know that adults can fool kids but if the abductor told Kyron, "Your parents died and you're living with me," would a 7-year-old accept that explanation right away?" has come up before and I think it has merit. Dead, or some version of that (you're no longer wanted, you made trouble & they gave you away etc)

The CSI exhibit the Horman's took a photo in front of was:
The Monster in the Box"
It is said to be a very popular episode. I wonder if this TV episode is matching some of the reality of what we know of Kyron's disappearance.

 

[ThoughtFox]

The CSI exhibit the Horman's took a photo in front of was:
The Monster in the Box"
It is said to be a very popular episode. I wonder if this TV episode is matching some of the reality of what we know of Kyron's disappearance.

We talked about that alot in early days. There are several CSI fans here, but except for one episode in which a sibling from a dysfunctional family picked up a child from school and murdered her, there aren't episodes I can recall that are identical to this one. I'd say in the vast majority of CSI episodes, the perpetrator is known to the vidtim.

 

[katydid23]

But I think you just answered your own question. Most children are abducted by parents or other relatives, not strangers. In your son's case, he knew you might still be in the parking lot, as Kyron would have known that TH was possibly still out there too. In the other case you mention, the mother was lurking around and the child went with her obediantly.

So every scenario we come up with leads back to possible obediance to the stepmother in this case.

Most of the warnings about school abductions where I live have been with non-custodial parents or even grandparents trying to contact or abduct children. I recall once a man came onto the elementary school playground during recess, having opened a gate and approached his own child. The teachers were quite alarmed that he didn't go to the office first, and the school took measure to lock more doors and keep a better eye on the parking lots (although there were two and both in areas where no one could see from the windows). We've also had a few cases in which ex-spouses of teachers have come onto campus to do violence but that has nothing to do with the kids.

It usually is a close friend or relative, I agree. But it can happen with strangers as well. You just are not as forewarned. As the Playground Supervisor, I was given pictures of the 2 families who had custodial issues. But of course there was always the looming danger of random pedophiles lurking about. Bathrooms are a constant source of potential danger in schools imo.

We used to have a problem with older siblings who would come to pick up their little bros and sisters, without going through the main pick up gate. They always liked coming through the back or the side field and just squeezing through or over and coming on to the campus. Made we realize that anyone could do it if they could.

 

[jwinchester]

Pardon if this is too OT, but I've never seen any series of CSI (for some reason, I'm only interested in either actual true crime or completely fictional mysteries; ripped-from-the-headlines stuff just makes me want to find out the real deal). My impression, though, was that it would not be usually considered appropriate viewing for a child Kyron's age -- but if they make shirts for it in his size, I guess that is inaccurate? Would it be something that a squeamish or nervous child would find frightening?

If I have an on-topic point, it's that it does seem possible it could matter to the stranger theory to some degree whether Kyron was familiar with abduction scenarios on television. I don't think it's likely to be hugely relevant. I did, however, have the rather unpleasant thought that if a predator were skulking around, seeing a child in a shirt advertising the idea of lurid crime might help trigger an attack. I try very hard not to engage in that kind of speculation, but we are trying to decipher the mentality of the perpetrator in order to piece out what happened, so I'll include it.

 

[cluciano63]

CSI isn't a show for 7-yr olds, from the few times I've seen it. But if the family went to whatever place it is where the shirts are sold, that might be seen more as a science-type thing I guess. I really think he just wore the shirt because it was science fair day and I don't think anyone dressed him in a certain way that day.

 

[carbuff]

I know quite a few families who are into CSI, young kids and all. The second-grader across the street wants to be a forensic pathologist when she grows up. I'm not a huge fan, but the times I've watched it, it seemed like if you didn't already know what they were talking about with dead body or decomposition or whatever, it wouldn't seem that creepy. They show more lab scenes than crime scenes; they really push the science aspects. And the exciting chase at the end, of course.