All of what you said is logical, but there are other sequential Openings and Closings with BS's code that are each logged with a separate number -- 20, 19, 18, and 17, for example.
IMO there was an issue with BS setting the alarm at 8:01a. It Armed in Away Mode. She knows not to do that because the dogs would set off the alarm through motion sensors. I don't see her making that mistake. On top of that, the dogs should have tripped the motion sensors at some point between 8:01 am and 4ish when she returned and deactivated it. They did not.
Re the event logs and the other BS sequential openings/closings (each logged with a different number). What I see is this: event 0014 is created, logged as the 6AM "opening" by BS's code. Then there's a prompt that I've only seen once (secure system before arming). Obviously, CWW did not arm nor secure the system with BS's code so the system is off. When BS shows up at 8AM, she checks the alarm puts in her code. The system reads this input as a response to the "secure system before arming". I'm thinking this is when the sensors were bypassed. CWW was probably trying to do this at 6AM but failed to put in the code again to bypass the sensors in away mode and the alarm was left off (which BS notices at 8AM) and probably wasn't part of the plan.
When BS taps in her code at 8AM, it acts to "accept" the bypass that CWW left incomplete. There isn't a new number until BS arms the system in "away" mode, ignoring the open window/door/motion in that room. In short, at 6AM there was an opening, but there was an error that prevented a proper closing and new number until BS showed up at 8, entered the code again, arming the house in an unsecured state.
And, if I'm reading correctly, there was a call from BS to MS that day and BS told MS that (because the alarm was off) that stay mode was not working. She was in a rush to get to church, and IIRC she said something about MS not having service at the lake in NY. What I
think happened is BS hit away mode, and at the time she did this the house was not secured, so the motion sensors were useless. At some point after arming in away mode, MS calls her back and she tells him about having issues arming in stay mode and used away mode. MS tells her not to do that again because the dogs would trip the sensors. BS is thinking, okay if that's true, maybe I
didn't hit away because the dogs did not trip the sensors.
Bates #5402
BS: So when I got there, the alarm was off (at 8AM 6/28).
So I told Mark the stay didn't work. He's calling the guy, "what do you mean, it doesn't work?" and all that.
Bates #5410
BS: I don't think I hit away. But even if I did, that was the whole point... (goes on to say how the dogs should've triggered the alarm immediately but didn't and that's why she's so sure she hit stay vs. away).
And then here...when she's lamenting herself for not setting the alarm anyway, despite MS's instructions not to
Bates #5362
BS: So we -- uh, and then when I left,
I should've just done what I did before because it worked.
What did BS do differently "before" if she only armed in "stay" mode?
I think what's going on here is that BS can't reconcile the fact that the sensors didn't trigger an alarm in away mode, so therefore she didn't hit away. Once she's looking at the event logs with LE it is clear, that yes she did hit away mode and
it worked, because the alarm was on when she returned at 4 and no sensors went off. However, because MS was so worried about the sensors, she doesn't arm the system in away mode like she did
before (at 8AM) when the system wasn't arming in stay mode and MS wasn't answering his phone.
I guess the only
solid facts to work with here are (1) the system was armed in away mode at 8AM and (2) the dogs were in the house and did not trip the sensors. This is explained by an open door or window in one of the armed zones at the time the system was set to away. So it follows that when CWW/JR entered at 6AM, they must have left a door/window either unlocked or open which renders the sensors useless.