Theory Theory - Theories about why - Something else

[Ghostwheel]

Thread for theories not burglary, not kidnapping/ransom. Some other reason this might have happened.

• Be considerate/mindful when posting theories.

 

[Ghostwheel]

If this is not kidnapping/ransom, my only real thought is punishment of some kind or (sadly) power, control, and recognition (to put it politely).

If it was just a planned murder, I would think she would be left behind. Caveat is planned murder, but there might be some kind of evidence on NG, so she had to be taken.

That she was taken, no mention of a scene in the house where she probably died, no proof of life and the ransom notes went to a media outlet, the first thought I had was she was taken to punish someone, Yes. Likely it is SG, but could be NG herself (take her and watch her die while the media circus goes on), CG (what if some old friend in the neighborhood just has issues? or someone else has a vendetta?), AG (same as CG). A student of TC? There is no small amount of reasons someone might have to "punish" someone if the offender has that mentality.

If they were simply trying to get someone's attention (say SG), they would be the hero and magically find NG somewhere, imo.

The second scenario, power, control, and recognition, I just cannot make my mind go there at this time.

 

[Vaderman]

In the first few days, I thought it could be similar to the murder of Jamal Khashoggi: a foreign government silencing a journalist (or their family) by brutally murdering them.

Admittedly, when I considered this angle, I wasn't very familiar with Savannah Guthrie other than she was a morning news anchor.

The part that tilted me in this direction especially was that no one was claiming responsibility, like in "normal" public/political crimes. With Khashoggi, no one took responsibility, but the message was chillingly clear.

 

[wibbleflea]

Punishment, revenge or just a long-held grudge. NG has three children, and the grudge could be against any of them, not just SG.

The perpetrator on video could be older than commonly assumed, and the grudge could go back some time. School, university, work, or a connection from the provision of a service (law, law enforcement, healthcare).

There’s a decent chance that the perp is smart. I’m basing that on his apparent level of preparation, and his successful (so far) avoidance of obvious pitfalls: DNA, fingerprints, vehicle identification, recognition from doorbell video, immediate suspicion from the family. And also what has been reported of the ransom notes, described as well written and well structured.

Some of this may be luck, but a combination of competence and preparedness can’t be ruled out.

Someone who felt slighted or marginalised by one of the family, and allowed that feeling to become fester into rage, but whom the family doesn’t suspect of feeling that strongly.

It could also be political.

 

[SlimPickens]

Theories change from time to time but at the moment I'm thinking:

Premeditated, meticulously planned, and complex kidnapping for ransom that was initially misread and dismissed by local law enforcement, which costed them brief but valuable time (and perhaps even Nancy's life). Committed by a professional or professionals who may or may not be in or from this country, and perhaps not even in the one to our south.

JMO.

 

[wibbleflea]

Theories change from time to time but at the moment I'm thinking:

Premeditated, meticulously planned, and complex kidnapping for ransom that was initially misread and dismissed by local law enforcement, which costed them brief but valuable time (and perhaps even Nancy's life). Committed by a professional or professionals who may or may not be in or from this country, and perhaps not even in the one to our south.

JMO.

Generally agreed with you, as usual. But, despite what I’ve written here and on the main thread (and perhaps you feel similarly), I can’t rule out luck. I do think the random notes were likely by the abductor(s).

When you say “committed by professionals”, do you mean professional criminals/abductors? If so, we might disagree on this

 

[SlimPickens]

Generally agreed with you, as usual. But, despite what I’ve written here and on the main thread (and perhaps you feel similarly), I can’t rule out luck. I do think the random notes were likely by the abductor(s).

When you say “committed by professionals”, do you mean professional criminals/abductors? If so, we might disagree on this

Yes, I think professional criminals if it is a kidnapping/ransom scenario, and that's primarily because despite the digital investigative prowess of the FBI it doesn't seem to have the aptitude or ability to track and trace the digital footprint of whomever did this. We have to think - this case reached the President of the United States, who then unleashed an army of resources to locate the perpetrator(s) and Nancy. This means that the FBI probably isn't the only government agency involved. I'm sure they've looked at whatever satellite data they have from the area, and I'm sure the NSA and similar agencies have tried to decode the digital footprint of the sender of those emails. And all to no avail. That implies a high degree of sophistication, someone who has done this before, and somewhere else on the planet.

Everyone saying the guy in the video looks amateur is doing so by their own "algorithm" or confirmation bias, IMO. This guy knew exactly what he was doing, and the earlier date video reinforces the notion of high sophistication in planning. He knew all of the 'actors, factors, and risks' well in advance. Guy is altering his gait walking up to the door. Guy clearly doesn't really care that he's on camera. I think he just didn't want anyone to see Nancy on camera.

An outlier is that there's a possibility that there is something under the surface that could've put this plan into motion, with a motive perhaps being to enact some sort of proxy extrajudicial justice on SG. "A threat carried out" in other words.

Could also be a crazed fan, but I just think that'd be too easy to decipher and an arrest already made.

 

[Onlyguessing23]

Yes, I think professional criminals if it is a kidnapping/ransom scenario, and that's primarily because despite the digital investigative prowess of the FBI it doesn't seem to have the aptitude or ability to track and trace the digital footprint of whomever did this. We have to think - this case reached the President of the United States, who then unleashed an army of resources to locate the perpetrator(s) and Nancy. This means that the FBI probably isn't the only government agency involved. I'm sure they've looked at whatever satellite data they have from the area, and I'm sure the NSA and similar agencies have tried to decode the digital footprint of the sender of those emails. And all to no avail. That implies a high degree of sophistication, someone who has done this before, and somewhere else on the planet.

Everyone saying the guy in the video looks amateur is doing so by their own "algorithm" or confirmation bias, IMO. This guy knew exactly what he was doing, and the earlier date video reinforces the notion of high sophistication in planning. He knew all of the 'actors, factors, and risks' well in advance. Guy is altering his gait walking up to the door. Guy clearly doesn't really care that he's on camera. I think he just didn't want anyone to see Nancy on camera.

An outlier is that there's a possibility that there is something under the surface that could've put this plan into motion, with a motive perhaps being to enact some sort of proxy extrajudicial justice on SG. "A threat carried out" in other words.

Could also be a crazed fan, but I just think that'd be too easy to decipher and an arrest already made.

This is exactly where my mind went from the beginning. NG/SG provide the perfect opportunity to grab the attention of our country (and more) for some marginalized or abandoned group to make their cause/demands known. To be heard/taken seriously. I think the FBI have known from the start who this is as they likely identified themselves in the initial contact - which may have been on the kitchen table in some form. However.. tick tock.. nothing has happened going on 5 weeks… did they get what they demanded? (I don’t think it was ever a demand for currency).

 

[Cassie P]

Everyone saying the guy in the video looks amateur is doing so by their own "algorithm" or confirmation bias, IMO. This guy knew exactly what he was doing, and the earlier date video reinforces the notion of high sophistication in planning. He knew all of the 'actors, factors, and risks' well in advance. Guy is altering his gait walking up to the door. Guy clearly doesn't really care that he's on camera. I think he just didn't want anyone to see Nancy on camera.

BBM.
Why do you think he didn't care if people saw him, but didn't want people to see NG?

 

[SlimPickens]

BBM.
Why do you think he didn't care if people saw him, but didn't want people to see NG?

In that scenario, I'm presupposing that he didn't want anyone to see how Nancy was removed and in what condition, and by how many removed her (if more than him). Or what kind of vehicle she was loaded into.

The camera also has audio, so I imagine he/they would've been as concerned about that during her removal.

I've always felt the lantana part of the clip was probably irrelevant to this case and that the clip itself is likely not wholly representative of the kind of person or persons we are dealing with here. That clip was probably released because it was the most benign part of the video that the public could use for identification of the perp or things like his apparel and gear, but it had the least potential to compromise the case.

JMO.

 

[wibbleflea]

Everyone saying the guy in the video looks amateur is doing so by their own "algorithm" or confirmation bias, IMO.

On that, we’re on the same page. The perp got incredibly lucky or is really good. Probably the latter. Perhaps cellular analysis and video footage will get him.

I have nothing concrete to back this up, but my gut feeling is that this isn’t a professional kidnapper. It’s someone smart, competent and cold, likely doing something new to him, and motivated by something personal. That’s just a hunch, though.

 

[Onlyguessing23]

I still think it’s a group. Highly trained. Well prepared. Practiced. I think their demand is of national importance - military? Hostage release/exchange? FBI has not allowed publication of the letters or release of information. I wonder if CIA or military actually has lead. NG/SG is the megaphone to capture our attention.
Speculation only.

 

[SlimPickens]

On that, we’re on the same page. The perp got incredibly lucky or is really good. Probably the latter. Perhaps cellular analysis and video footage will get him.

I have nothing concrete to back this up, but my gut feeling is that this isn’t a professional kidnapper. It’s someone smart, competent and cold, likely doing something new to him, and motivated by something personal. That’s just a hunch, though.

Indeed, and if he isn't professional and managed to not only commit the crime - but also the ransom demand - wholly undetected, then he should probably buy some Powerball tickets.

JMO.

 

[Serononin]

I definitely don't think this guy is some kind of sophisticated professional hitman. I mean, surely to goodness a professional would, at the very least, buy a holster that actually fits his gun?

If Lantana Man was hired to do the job, I think it was much more low-key - someone has a grudge, grudge-holder has a friend, friend has another friend, who knows a guy, etc.

 

[Napoli]

Love sick, delusional, unhinged SG admirer . You all know my theory and the particulars. Wanted SG's attention. He wasnt overt all this time but SG was not on TODAY SHOW for weeks following throat surgery and was then scheduled to go to Milan for the OLYMPICS. He needed to see her and didnt want to share her with the Olympic coverage as he was sure she was speaking to hIm daily, through code on the Today show. Ransom letter could have been originally at the house with email follow-up the next day to HL and local media. Those INSTAGRAM videos of SG were targeted at something specific known only to those who have seen the ransom demands. SG's response was definitely coded language. He never really wanted the ransom. The letters were only an avenue for communication with SG. MOO

 

[Cassie P]

In that scenario, I'm presupposing that he didn't want anyone to see how Nancy was removed and in what condition, and by how many removed her (if more than him). Or what kind of vehicle she was loaded into.

The camera also has audio, so I imagine he/they would've been as concerned about that during her removal.

I've always felt the lantana part of the clip was probably irrelevant to this case and that the clip itself is likely not wholly representative of the kind of person or persons we are dealing with here. That clip was probably released because it was the most benign part of the video that the public could use for identification of the perp or things like his apparel and gear, but it had the least potential to compromise the case.

JMO.

From the blood on the porch, it appears NG was injured and bleeding, and perhaps being roughed up and restrained. If this is a kidnapping would the visual help or hinder obtaining a top dollar ransom?

Yes I understand them not wanting to divulge team size and appearance.

 

[SlimPickens]

From the blood on the porch, it appears NG was injured and bleeding, and perhaps being roughed up and restrained. If this is a kidnapping would the visual help or hinder obtaining a top dollar ransom?

Yes I understand them not wanting to divulge team size and appearance.

Interesting question. It would definitely yield a sense of urgency, and a family of great means would probably want to pay immediately upon seeing something like that. But in a time of substantial trauma and shock, they would likely defer to those in charge on what to do. And since LE doesn't have an intimate stake in the outcome and tend to look at these kinds of situations through a statistical/probabilistic lens, they probably strongly advised to 'wait and see' what they could come up with first.

And that probably costed them the only valid chance and realistic window of time - if small - they had to get Nancy back alive.

To be sure and with hindsight being 20/20, I think they were given very poor advice. And they are probably wrestling with that fact too. I can't imagine their inner turmoil.

JMO.

 

[Cassie P]

I've always felt the lantana part of the clip was probably irrelevant to this case and that the clip itself is likely not wholly representative of the kind of person or persons we are dealing with here. That clip was probably released because it was the most benign part of the video that the public could use for identification of the perp or things like his apparel and gear, but it had the least potential to compromise the case.

JMO.

In psych theory, criminal behavior is a slice of a person's overall behavior and reflects their normal every day functioning to some extent. A criminal does not grow an entirely new personality at a crime scene.

So we will get glimpses of the person's routine style even if they are disguised or have made behavior modifications.

People have noticed his calm, laid back style which seems at odds with the serious nature of the crime. Some of us with a mental health background have noticed the phallic gun placement, which is of concern.

The interesting thing I have noticed from a number of other comments here is the feeling that something is off about this guy, his appearance, his clothing and behavior. When people are looking at something and say it is off, I usually pay attention.

The other point to consider is that the presentation of Lantana Guy seems at odds with the so far successful nature of the crime and sophistication of the ransom notes.

 

[Lebowski]

the calmness despite the seriousness of what's going on makes me think he's committed break-ins before.

maybe violent crimes as well. assuming he had just done something to NG a few minutes earlier, one would think he'd be an adrenaline-fueled mess.

 

[Cassie P]

Interesting question. It would definitely yield a sense of urgency, and a family of great means would probably want to pay immediately upon seeing something like that. But in a time of substantial trauma and shock, they would likely defer to those in charge on what to do. And since LE doesn't have an intimate stake in the outcome and tend to look at these kinds of situations through a statistical/probabilistic lens, they probably strongly advised to 'wait and see' what they could come up with first.

And that probably costed them the only valid chance and realistic window of time - if small - they had to get Nancy back alive.

To be sure and with hindsight being 20/20, I think they were given very poor advice. And they are probably wrestling with that fact too. I can't imagine their inner turmoil.

JMO.

I thought your comment was interesting, that is why I asked the question about why they might not want NG to be seen as she was removed from the home.

Kidnapping is a business crime, the victim being held for ransom is a tangible asset worth potentially a great deal of money.

Yes viewing an injured victim may incentivize the family to pay any price immediately. On the other hand, it also make them and LE more determined to hunt down the kidnappers.

Yes if the family was advised not to pay the ransom, they may have second thoughts about that decision.