Theory Theory - Theories about why - Something else

[Jenesaisquoi]

If more than one perp, what if they wanted Nancy to be able to get access to Annie and SIL’s home for whatever reason. Having Nancy at gunpoint may make them more compliant when the perps turned up.

Would Nancy have had a key to their house?

Did Nancy refuse to put her family in danger? Did this cause plans to change dramatically?

If just one perp then I can’t see this as a viable option.

 

[FaviousM]

OK, think it's about time I tried typing out my 'pet' theory. I will preface this by saying there are other far simpler explanations for the crime than what I'm about to suggest below and I do lean towards those explanations way more than this one.

This is just a theory I formulated for reasons I can't fully put into words, just call it a vibe I get from everything we've seen

All of the below is my own opinion and pure speculation!

The why:

Simply, they wanted to. No financial motivation, no revenge, no obsession. They wanted to plan out and commit this heinous crime because the planning and execution of the crime excited them.

Why NG?

This is where my theory gets a bit 'out there' in terms of speculation. My thinking for why they might have chosen NG is that they have done this before. Maybe not the kidnapping, but the planning and execution of a similar enough crime. But importantly, with someone a lot lower profile than NG. Possibly someone from their local area, maybe that crime was simply put down to a burglary gone wrong.

But the next time, they needed something more, they needed more excitement. So they chose a higher profile target, maybe they saw that TV segment and that's how they got to NG or they simply looked up notable people from Tucson on Wikipedia, which includes SG and they went from there.

But the point I'm making is, they have no tangible connection to NG.

Thoughts on the suspect

Again, this is major speculation on my part as there's not a whole lot to point to this, but in this theory, the suspect is likely someone relatively young (perhaps in their late 20s or early 30s) who thinks they are smarter than everyone else and spends too much time on True Crime sites online (hell they've probably been on here asking oddly specific question). They think they can commit the perfect crime and outsmart everyone.

They spent a huge amount of time planning and trying to account for every possibility

They got a gun and holster and wore it in a way that's intended to be obvious and threatening to an old lady even if it looks ridiculous to most who have experience with firearms

Maybe they somehow sourced (or made) a device to jam the camera's WiFi signals, they planned their route in and out of the area carefully to avoid major roads/intersections, they watched NG to learn her routines, they cased the house thoroughly, maybe they even went out of state to rent a car to use in the crime, instead of turning their phone off they simply left it behind at home next to their bed, a reasonable location for it at that time of night.

They got a cheap 'disposable' outfit, they wore multiple layers of masks and gloves to reduce the possibility of DNA transfer. They used a bite-light so their hands were free without thinking of the risk of potential increased DNA transfer because their bite-light idea was so "brilliant"

Then on the night of the crime, things didn't exactly go to plan. The battery on their jammer died and the got surprised by an online camera they thought should have been offline and grabbed some plants to try block it because once things don't go to plan, this guy panics.

Maybe the first couple of ransom notes were really this guy, it wasn't really about the money, NG was sadly already long dead but hey, he was smart enough to fool the police, why not try make a bit of money out of it. But once he realised those videos made it to the cloud, his confidence got knocked and he got cold feet.

In Summary

The crime was the point, the perp wanted an escalating thrill so choose a high profile (but soft) target. He looked amateur because once things went off script, he couldn't handle it.

Again, this is all my own opinion and pure speculation. This is so far from being the simplest explanation for the crime, it's just a feeling I got from everything we currently know

 

[wibbleflea]

The crime was the point, the perp wanted an escalating thrill so choose a high profile (but soft) target. He looked amateur because once things went off script, he couldn't handle it.

Again, this is all my own opinion and pure speculation. This is so far from being the simplest explanation for the crime, it's just a feeling I got from everything we currently know

Sadly, I think your theory is perfectly plausible. You’d like to think the motive was stronger than a need for a thrill (and my feeling is that it was driven by something more personal – someone who’d been rebuffed or slighted), but that may not be. It could be as simple as what you’ve described, making it that much harder to find the perp.

 

[Charlot123]

OK, think it's about time I tried typing out my 'pet' theory. I will preface this by saying there are other far simpler explanations for the crime than what I'm about to suggest below and I do lean towards those explanations way more than this one.

This is just a theory I formulated for reasons I can't fully put into words, just call it a vibe I get from everything we've seen

All of the below is my own opinion and pure speculation!

The why:

Simply, they wanted to. No financial motivation, no revenge, no obsession. They wanted to plan out and commit this heinous crime because the planning and execution of the crime excited them.

Why NG?

This is where my theory gets a bit 'out there' in terms of speculation. My thinking for why they might have chosen NG is that they have done this before. Maybe not the kidnapping, but the planning and execution of a similar enough crime. But importantly, with someone a lot lower profile than NG. Possibly someone from their local area, maybe that crime was simply put down to a burglary gone wrong.

But the next time, they needed something more, they needed more excitement. So they chose a higher profile target, maybe they saw that TV segment and that's how they got to NG or they simply looked up notable people from Tucson on Wikipedia, which includes SG and they went from there.

But the point I'm making is, they have no tangible connection to NG.

Thoughts on the suspect

Again, this is major speculation on my part as there's not a whole lot to point to this, but in this theory, the suspect is likely someone relatively young (perhaps in their late 20s or early 30s) who thinks they are smarter than everyone else and spends too much time on True Crime sites online (hell they've probably been on here asking oddly specific question). They think they can commit the perfect crime and outsmart everyone.

They spent a huge amount of time planning and trying to account for every possibility

They got a gun and holster and wore it in a way that's intended to be obvious and threatening to an old lady even if it looks ridiculous to most who have experience with firearms

Maybe they somehow sourced (or made) a device to jam the camera's WiFi signals, they planned their route in and out of the area carefully to avoid major roads/intersections, they watched NG to learn her routines, they cased the house thoroughly, maybe they even went out of state to rent a car to use in the crime, instead of turning their phone off they simply left it behind at home next to their bed, a reasonable location for it at that time of night.

They got a cheap 'disposable' outfit, they wore multiple layers of masks and gloves to reduce the possibility of DNA transfer. They used a bite-light so their hands were free without thinking of the risk of potential increased DNA transfer because their bite-light idea was so "brilliant"

Then on the night of the crime, things didn't exactly go to plan. The battery on their jammer died and the got surprised by an online camera they thought should have been offline and grabbed some plants to try block it because once things don't go to plan, this guy panics.

Maybe the first couple of ransom notes were really this guy, it wasn't really about the money, NG was sadly already long dead but hey, he was smart enough to fool the police, why not try make a bit of money out of it. But once he realised those videos made it to the cloud, his confidence got knocked and he got cold feet.

In Summary

The crime was the point, the perp wanted an escalating thrill so choose a high profile (but soft) target. He looked amateur because once things went off script, he couldn't handle it.

Again, this is all my own opinion and pure speculation. This is so far from being the simplest explanation for the crime, it's just a feeling I got from everything we currently know

I am sorry to even ask it, but how many people of younger age watch "Today" show or knew who Suzanne Guthrie was before the abduction? Was SG such a celebrity in Tucson?

(A very honest question).

 

[Cassie P]

OK, think it's about time I tried typing out my 'pet' theory. I will preface this by saying there are other far simpler explanations for the crime than what I'm about to suggest below and I do lean towards those explanations way more than this one.

This is just a theory I formulated for reasons I can't fully put into words, just call it a vibe I get from everything we've seen

All of the below is my own opinion and pure speculation!

The why:

Simply, they wanted to. No financial motivation, no revenge, no obsession. They wanted to plan out and commit this heinous crime because the planning and execution of the crime excited them.

Why NG?

This is where my theory gets a bit 'out there' in terms of speculation. My thinking for why they might have chosen NG is that they have done this before. Maybe not the kidnapping, but the planning and execution of a similar enough crime. But importantly, with someone a lot lower profile than NG. Possibly someone from their local area, maybe that crime was simply put down to a burglary gone wrong.

But the next time, they needed something more, they needed more excitement. So they chose a higher profile target, maybe they saw that TV segment and that's how they got to NG or they simply looked up notable people from Tucson on Wikipedia, which includes SG and they went from there.

But the point I'm making is, they have no tangible connection to NG.

Thoughts on the suspect

Again, this is major speculation on my part as there's not a whole lot to point to this, but in this theory, the suspect is likely someone relatively young (perhaps in their late 20s or early 30s) who thinks they are smarter than everyone else and spends too much time on True Crime sites online (hell they've probably been on here asking oddly specific question). They think they can commit the perfect crime and outsmart everyone.

They spent a huge amount of time planning and trying to account for every possibility

They got a gun and holster and wore it in a way that's intended to be obvious and threatening to an old lady even if it looks ridiculous to most who have experience with firearms

Maybe they somehow sourced (or made) a device to jam the camera's WiFi signals, they planned their route in and out of the area carefully to avoid major roads/intersections, they watched NG to learn her routines, they cased the house thoroughly, maybe they even went out of state to rent a car to use in the crime, instead of turning their phone off they simply left it behind at home next to their bed, a reasonable location for it at that time of night.

They got a cheap 'disposable' outfit, they wore multiple layers of masks and gloves to reduce the possibility of DNA transfer. They used a bite-light so their hands were free without thinking of the risk of potential increased DNA transfer because their bite-light idea was so "brilliant"

Then on the night of the crime, things didn't exactly go to plan. The battery on their jammer died and the got surprised by an online camera they thought should have been offline and grabbed some plants to try block it because once things don't go to plan, this guy panics.

Maybe the first couple of ransom notes were really this guy, it wasn't really about the money, NG was sadly already long dead but hey, he was smart enough to fool the police, why not try make a bit of money out of it. But once he realised those videos made it to the cloud, his confidence got knocked and he got cold feet.

In Summary

The crime was the point, the perp wanted an escalating thrill so choose a high profile (but soft) target. He looked amateur because once things went off script, he couldn't handle it.

Again, this is all my own opinion and pure speculation. This is so far from being the simplest explanation for the crime, it's just a feeling I got from everything we currently know

Favious, after reading your intro, I admit I was skeptical. Then as I kept reading, I was pleasantly surprised because I think your theory is a good one.

And no, you are not just going by vibes or going for a dramatic story line. You include reasonable logic based on facts.

1. You explain why NG was the target. The desire to escalate the thrill and challenge.
2. You explain the odd gun placement. To everyone else it is nonsense, but to an older woman it looks menacing.
3. You explain why experts here described Lantana man as "something is off." Almost like play acting.
4. They spent a of time planning, even had a rehearsal. This is why Lantana man looks nonchalant at the door.
5. Young, but smart. In fact think they are the smartest ones in the room. This is classic narcissism and explains a lot. Including the phone calls to TV stations.

Questions:
- I was not clear if you think this is one person or two?
- What was the intent? Kidnapping or murder?
-What do you think happened to NG?
-Do you think they will be apprehended? Is LE on to them?
-Interesting about the oddly specific question, that tracks with my thoughts as well.

 

[Cassie P]

I am sorry to even ask it, but how many people of younger age watch "Today" show or knew who Suzanne Guthrie was before the abduction? Was SG such a celebrity in Tucson?

(A very honest question).

This is a good question. How does this young smart guy even know about SG and NG? Lives with his mother perhaps, she watches this kind of TV show?

If so, perhaps this kid has some mom issues?

 

[FaviousM]

Questions:
- I was not clear if you think this is one person or two?

Just one, I imagine this guy would be a loner. Maybe he lives with his parents but probably your typical 'outcast'

- What was the intent? Kidnapping or murder?

Murder. Removal of the body is just removing evidence and/or creating the opportunity for the ransom notes (though I don't fully believe they were from the perp). But again, I think the real motivation is the planning and commission of the crime and one-upping everyone else. The thrill and the superiority

-What do you think happened to NG?

Sadly, I don't think she survived that morning. I would imagine she was brought somewhere preplanned, killed and her body concealed (maybe an old mine shaft or well or something)

-Do you think they will be apprehended? Is LE on to them?

Yes on both fronts. While I bet they were very thorough on the night of the abduction, I'd imagine their surveillance would have been more sloppy. I bet there's some digital trial somewhere that LE have caught onto. Either sloppiness or arrogance will be the perp's downfall

 

[FaviousM]

I am sorry to even ask it, but how many people of younger age watch "Today" show or knew who Suzanne Guthrie was before the abduction? Was SG such a celebrity in Tucson?

(A very honest question).

She's on the List of People From Tucson Wiki page, maybe he's from Tucson or a neighbouring state and just looked up the list. Looked for a female name as they'd be easier to control and once he dug deeper he found the info about NG

Maybe NG or SG trended locally on X when the segment aired.

Maybe his mom was watching the segment on TV and he happened to see it.

I'm sure there's a bunch of other possibilities but those are a few off the top of my head

 

[wibbleflea]

She's on the List of People From Tucson Wiki page, maybe he's from Tucson or a neighbouring state and just looked up the list. Looked for a female name as they'd be easier to control and once he dug deeper he found the info about NG

Maybe NG or SG trended locally on X when the segment aired.

Maybe his mom was watching the segment on TV and he happened to see it.

I'm sure there's a bunch of other possibilities but those are a few off the top of my head

I'm still leaning towards something more personal, and the offender being someone with a connection to NG, SG or family (even if the connection is slight) but that's really no more than a hunch. Your theory is a strong possibility.

 

[Charlot123]

She's on the List of People From Tucson Wiki page, maybe he's from Tucson or a neighbouring state and just looked up the list. Looked for a female name as they'd be easier to control and once he dug deeper he found the info about NG

Maybe NG or SG trended locally on X when the segment aired.

Maybe his mom was watching the segment on TV and he happened to see it.

I'm sure there's a bunch of other possibilities but those are a few off the top of my head

Yes, I was thinking today, "if I were to watch one of morning shows, I'd watch Stephanopoulos, at least he's more interesting" and Googled him (you know, he was mostly known in Clinton's time). To my surprise, Google posts these people's net worth.

BTW, I don't know who posted the ransom of 6 million, but to me it makes sense as it is 1/10 of NG's net worth.

 

[Charlot123]

Just one, I imagine this guy would be a loner. Maybe he lives with his parents but probably your typical 'outcast'

Murder. Removal of the body is just removing evidence and/or creating the opportunity for the ransom notes (though I don't fully believe they were from the perp). But again, I think the real motivation is the planning and commission of the crime and one-upping everyone else. The thrill and the superiority

Sadly, I don't think she survived that morning. I would imagine she was brought somewhere preplanned, killed and her body concealed (maybe an old mine shaft or well or something)

Yes on both fronts. While I bet they were very thorough on the night of the abduction, I'd imagine their surveillance would have been more sloppy. I bet there's some digital trial somewhere that LE have caught onto. Either sloppiness or arrogance will be the perp's downfall

So, an outcast, obsessing about murders? Visiting dark sites with photos to get satisfaction? Lives either with mom, or even married but the wife has own life? Sort of "our typical" trail killer but a house invader instead? You know, they sometimes are married, if they have good jobs.

There are tons of them, sadly.

 

[Cassie P]

Just one, I imagine this guy would be a loner. Maybe he lives with his parents but probably your typical 'outcast'

Murder. Removal of the body is just removing evidence and/or creating the opportunity for the ransom notes (though I don't fully believe they were from the perp). But again, I think the real motivation is the planning and commission of the crime and one-upping everyone else. The thrill and the superiority

Sadly, I don't think she survived that morning. I would imagine she was brought somewhere preplanned, killed and her body concealed (maybe an old mine shaft or well or something)

Yes on both fronts. While I bet they were very thorough on the night of the abduction, I'd imagine their surveillance would have been more sloppy. I bet there's some digital trial somewhere that LE have caught onto. Either sloppiness or arrogance will be the perp's downfall

So somebody who looks and acts fairly normal. But is a psychopath with a need to show power, control, aggression. He wants a risk and challenge to prove his superiority. He likes getting one over on others.

Yes he enjoyed the process perhaps. I got the feeling he enjoyed putting his disguise together, the strange gun holster and placement, the mouth lite, the mask. There was a showy feel to it. Like waving the plant around. He was not nervous, he was having fun.

So we are talking about a narcissistic psychopath. Sending the ransom notes would fit in with that scenario. If the ransom notes were sent by someone else he would have been angry that another person was hogging his limelight?

This is the reason he chose NG, he knew he would get the publicity? And it was an easy target.

So a serial killer type profile? Who may strike again, or do you think this was one off?

I was thinking about this myself, because if we rule out a money crime, or family crime, we are looking at a personal non domestic crime. Perhaps serial killer type crime.

 

[FaviousM]

So somebody who looks and acts fairly normal. But is a psychopath with a need to show power, control, aggression. He wants a risk and challenge to prove his superiority. He likes getting one over on others.

Yes he enjoyed the process perhaps. I got the feeling he enjoyed putting his disguise together, the strange gun holster and placement, the mouth lite, the mask. There was a showy feel to it. Like waving the plant around. He was not nervous, he was having fun.

So we are talking about a narcissistic psychopath. Sending the ransom notes would fit in with that scenario. If the ransom notes were sent by someone else he would have been angry that another person was hogging his limelight?

This is the reason he chose NG, he knew he would get the publicity? And it was an easy target.

So a serial killer type profile? Who may strike again, or do you think this was one off?

I was thinking about this myself, because if we rule out a money crime, or family crime, we are looking at a personal non domestic crime. Perhaps serial killer type crime.

It wouldn't surprise me if it was a serial offender alright. Though I think he'd probably realise he's bitten off a bit more than he can chew with this one so would lay low for a good while.

If that is the case, hopefully LE get to him before he gets the urge to do something else

 

[Cassie P]

Sadly, I think your theory is perfectly plausible. You’d like to think the motive was stronger than a need for a thrill (and my feeling is that it was driven by something more personal – someone who’d been rebuffed or slighted), but that may not be. It could be as simple as what you’ve described, making it that much harder to find the perp.

Wibble, wouldn't this guy be easier to catch than more professional experienced robbers or kidnappers? If this is a first time killer, amateur, driven by mental illness he may make mistakes?

 

[Cassie P]

She's on the List of People From Tucson Wiki page, maybe he's from Tucson or a neighbouring state and just looked up the list. Looked for a female name as they'd be easier to control and once he dug deeper he found the info about NG

Maybe NG or SG trended locally on X when the segment aired.

Maybe his mom was watching the segment on TV and he happened to see it.

I'm sure there's a bunch of other possibilities but those are a few off the top of my head

An older female with health issues is easier to subdue. And maybe he has mom/grandmother issues. Maybe some childhood abuse and made to feel stupid. Hence a need to get power, control, the aggression. And need to feel smart and superior.

Yes he may have seen the TV show last year which featured SG and NG.

 

[Cassie P]

It wouldn't surprise me if it was a serial offender alright. Though I think he'd probably realise he's bitten off a bit more than he can chew with this one so would lay low for a good while.

If that is the case, hopefully LE get to him before he gets the urge to do something else

If we go with your theory and profile, then there is going to be a rush, a high, perhaps an addictive quality to the criminal acts. The risk, challenge, the aggression, feeling superior and in control are enticing to him. It may be hard for him to lay low for long.

But this would be very risky for him. The heat is on. He got the limelight he wanted. A very dangerous limelight. Hopefully he rethinks all of it.

Or perhaps as others have suggested NG was the sole target and his goal was achieved.

 

[wibbleflea]

Wibble, wouldn't this guy be easier to catch than more professional experienced robbers or kidnappers? If this is a first time killer, amateur, driven by mental illness he may make mistakes?

My take is this: regular criminals have motivations and methods that police are good at looking out for. They're often career criminals and are known to be sketchy. There's usually some desperation behind the crime – they need the money, or there's a publicly known (or discoverable) reason for an act of revenge.

If this guy is smart but not known to be a career criminal, he may look like an amateur on video, while having done an unusually good job of thinking through each risk and working around it. He wouldn't care about looking professional. If he gets away with it, he succeeds.

So maybe it's harder, not easier, to catch him. I think LE can struggle with this kind of criminal.

I think the chance are still decent that he'll be found.

Some of the crimes that remain unsolved amaze me. Think of the Shermans, or Liz Barraza, or Missy Bevers. Alistair Wilson, a banker shot on his doorstep in a town of 10,000 people in Scotland. I didn't expect any of those to go unsolved. It's too early to call this one cold, though. That's my feeling.

Do you think he'll be caught?

 

[Cassie P]

My take is this: regular criminals have motivations and methods that police are good at looking out for. They're often career criminals and are known to be sketchy. There's usually some desperation behind the crime – they need the money, or there's a publicly known (or discoverable) reason for an act of revenge.

If this guy is smart but not known to be a career criminal, he may look like an amateur on video, while having done an unusually good job of thinking through each risk and working around it. He wouldn't care about looking professional. If he gets away with it, he succeeds.

So maybe it's harder, not easier, to catch him. I think LE can struggle with this kind of criminal.

I think the chance are still decent that he'll be found.

Some of the crimes that remain unsolved amaze me. Think of the Shermans, or Liz Barraza, or Missy Bevers. Alistair Wilson, a banker shot on his doorstep in a town of 10,000 people in Scotland. I didn't expect any of those to go unsolved. It's too early to call this one cold, though. That's my feeling.

Do you think he'll be caught?

You raise good points. Professional career criminals are more predictable and fit into known LE algorithms. They have perhaps a history of arrests and will show up in the data bases. Or the underground grapevine talks to undercover LE, etc.

Inexperienced criminals may be more creative, more untraditional, and confuse LE.
And they are total unknowns to LE.

Of course some of the very good professionals never get caught. Prisons are full of mediocre criminals? The ones who get caught.

I don't know if Lantana Man will get caught or not. There are so many missing pieces of evidence, it is hard to make a determination. If he is inexperienced, perhaps he will make a mistake and be apprehended.