POST IN PROGRESS
Top of the morning to you all. May today be the day Noah is found! Maybe we can all light a candle today like we used to do for Dylan. What is that site, gratitude/grateful..? Sending good vibes out to all the LE teams out there today and to Noah's family! Sending love out to Noah that by some miracle he's tucked away warm somewhere and he will be found today at any moment!
I'm marking my spot below with some posts I'd like to jump off. My thought is to do this in steps, get a map graphic, topographic and geologic, etc, and plug in some of the variables/possible directions/landmarks using some of the posts below, some via inference/analysis involving behavior bLA bla. Sorry for the long post, its a brainstorm post, working and thinking out loud. Will do my best.
First note to self, try to locate and map trails referred to in yesterday's PC.
I'm not a grandma yet, but most of my friends are becoming grandparents or have little grandkids. We had a discussion last week because one of them was watching 2 kids roughly the Chamberlin kid's age for 4 days while the parents took a vacation. They were all laughing about how exhausting it is to take care little ones for that long, it just wipes you out. These are fit women, who successfully raised kids of their own. We concluded it's a brain thing. Mothers with little ones have a level of hyper-awareness where they know where their kids are at all times, who needs a snack, who need a nap, who needs a diaper change. It just works in their heads. The way we, in our lives, know which spades have been played in a hand of bridge. We certainly have the mental capacity and physical endurance to take care of kids, we're just out of practice.
I think this grandma was sitting with the 4 year old for quite some time, never looking up to see where Noah was, or even thinking of him. And I think (as Steelman and others have mentioned) it's likely he went off in a COMPLETELY other direction than into the woods behind the house. He may have headed to the front yard, and walked down the road a mile before crossing the road and heading north. And he may be 10 miles into that trek.
Note to self, for map, ten mile circumference, map that looks like a bullseye.
I'm with you, Steelman. If he's not in a sinkhole, I think he is far, far away from the original point. Some small children can go miles without stopping.
Here is an article written by a searcher in the Jerold Williams case. It is about lessons he learned during the search. One of his suggestions is that if volunteers are not allowed (or needed) in the immediate area, that they be directed to search OUTSIDE the perimeter of the recommended search area. In Noah's case, iirc, they are not using volunteers today. I would imagine there are hundreds, if not a thousand, people willing to search today, on a Sunday. I wish/hope they would tell them to search outside the official search area. And yes, a map would be helpful.
http://utahgeology.com/391/take-away-lessons-from-my-experience-with-the-jerold-williams-search/
I totally agree Steelman.
I have not read either of any searching other than behind the home.
With the hundreds of searchers he should have been found IMO
I too think Noah went in another direction and went far.
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Property records / architectural blueprints...
For what it's worth, my soon to be three year old and I go walk a nature preserve nearby and do what is about a 6 mile walk at least once a week. When she was about a few months past two she could easily walk almost the entire thing before she wanted me to strap her in the carrier. I'm not sure exactly when she started walking the whole way, but it's rare I ever put her in her carrier now. It usually takes us about 2 hours, maybe 2 and half if we find a turtle or something interesting to watch. However, I do keep her on a kid leash because, she is fast. I'm sure we could actually walk it more quickly but that is our "reconnect" with nature time.
6 miles in two hours ... wow this little one could be anywhere then
6 miles oddly seems to come up on a lot of maps here in my experience in other totally unrelated cases. Mark 6 mile circumference in shades for bullseye (sorry talking to myself).
(And FTR I'm all about the kid leash at this point.)
Also, wanted to add back to the discussion of wells, a lot of times if an old well isn't filled in properly, over time the dirt settles and reopens, so even an old well that people don't think of being there is still a danger. Often time older wells are just covered with boards that will begin to rot and could easily be stepped on and fallen through.
I also know where I grew up in far north Georgia, there were plentiful small caves, that sometimes just looked like bunch of rocks but would have a small crevice which a small person could squeeze through.
In reality the possibilities are endless to where he could be. For some reason I have two thoughts I keep coming back to, and I pray I am wrong, but for one the bodies of water really have me scared. I know they have been searched, but I don't feel any better about them. Cold water doesn't phase children from playing in it at all. The other way I am leaning is that he actually came back towards the house and kept walking. Perhaps heading his home. Kids are so smart, my little one has known from very young when our drive is bringing us home.
Resume search for old wells via internet
I saw earlier in the thread a question about holes in the ground and someone answered that the most likely were remains of the shallow root-system of fallen trees. Have the fallen trees and the "disks" of the root-system been removed? I know that the root-system "disks" of fallen fir trees can be very dangerous if left standing on the side after that the tree have been removed, as they can easily fall back to standing upright again if disturbed and they can easily trap a unwary person beneath it. If such a "disk" has fallen on the child, he could be totally hidden beneath it.
This is interesting, re: trees I keep wondering about him crawling into a lateral treestump, like in a tunnel.
We have steep ridges and ravines on our property and it's amazing how noise bounces around and sounds like it's coming from a different direction than it actually is. Since the first day I keep erasing an image in my mind of little Noah running the wrong direction when he hears people calling his name :tears:
note to self, note topographic elements, refer to .gov map I used in NOCO thread
*elevation map
I think a bunch of the volunteer searchers need to obtain permission from property owners that have property outside the current search zone and start walking the fields themselves. Much of the land in that area is simply heavily wooded undeveloped forest. There's nothing that says that private individuals can't go out and conduct searches of their own, as long as they have the necessary permission from the property owner.
I would also suggest that they pay special attention to open, plowed farm land. I think it makes sense that he may have tried to get into a clearing or an open spot of land so he could see better. The forest can be scary at night, and he may have tried to get into a clearing where he didn't feel surrounded by scary looking trees. Some of these searchers may be misled when they look out across a pasture of plowed land and don't see anything noticeable. There's all kinds of dips, furrows, and weeds in a plowed field where a small child could lie down, curl up, and not be seen.
The biggest enemy in this case is that the weather began to deteriorate shortly after he wandered off. It went from sunny and warm, to windy and rainy, to frigid and freezing, in 48 hours.
Look for and map any open, plowed lands.
Amen, dogface, that's my story too! My own kids would respond when called a couple times, but a friend's daughter wouldn't respond verbally to her name being called. She'd sit, alert, while her name was called and not answer. She was 2. One outing, it got to the point where phones were coming out to call 911 when someone spotted her, sitting close by, listening as people called her name. Other kids - and we've all seen it - make a game of purposely running the opposite direction so they can be chased, but I don't sense that's what happened to Noah. I think he just walked off and by the time anyone was calling for him he was out of earshot.
Additionally, if you spend sometime looking at google images satellite, you'll see a LOT of bodies of water right there, from stock tanks to creeks. I counted 3 creeks and 3 big murky looking stock tanks in easy walking distance.
Locate and mark all these bodies of water
So very true. It makes predicting what they might do almost impossible. We could be looking at a perfectly logical path he would travel and he could have gone the most illogical(to our adult brains) way there was. I am at the point where I just feel so disheartened about this case. I pray for a micracle of miracles.
The problem comes because the littles don't even realize they're in danger. They've wandered off, they're "free" from restriction, they may be playing or exploring. To them, this is fun. They're so entrenched in their own little toddler thoughts that by the time they become scared or hungry, they may be too far away for the games designed to find them to be effective.
I don't know what the answer is, honestly. Hoping Noah is found soon.
Psychological aspect, try to get inside his head and map possible projected paths by pretending we are in his shoes. Also, look up more stats, etc.
I keep thinking about Rainn, 2 days she was missing and traveled the opposite direction, searched had searched the area.
Distance and geographic specifics in Rainn's case for possible cross reference
I agree.
Every inch of the house property inside and out need to be gone over again.
May today be the day.
Blueprints
I would love to hear that this baby was able to crawl into someplace warm and is there still. Maybe not alert but still alive....
find 2 links I posted re: this in Malik's thread
That's what happened with Rainn. She was sleeping in tall grass when she was found.
Somehow locate possible tall grassy areas?
Here's a good question for all you Mammas and Grandmothers.
This is the second child who has walked/run away already in 2016. What should we be teaching our 2-4 years old to do if they get separated from us outside? Go to the first house or store they see, stay in the spot they are, or what? Some 2-3 year olds may understand what you say, but may not remember when they are scared.
Your thought and ideas, please as we wait for news on Noah.
It's so great we have so many grandmothers here (and mothers) that can help shed insight about their experiences with toddlers. Maybe some guests can join and help she'd some local insight which could be very helpful!
Rumors grow legs by being repeated.
This reminder falls at random.
Love it, lol.
Panel of experts:
geologists specializing in sinkholes
Land surveyers
Oil well drilling/natural gas/pipe workers
Locationsof possible old deer stands /hunters forums? ( I had the weirdest dream this morning that a tiny tiny adorable baby deer came in though my air vent because it was cold outside and my dog was chasing it all over the house lol.)
raying:
