GUILTY Turkey - Sarai Sierra, 33, NY woman murdered, Istanbul, 21 Jan 2013 - #4

[Rolandred]

There's criminal and then there's CRIMINAL.

Everyone committs criminal acts of one sort of another to get along. It's just a matter of situational ethics. Even for the homeless.

Is that just in the "homeless community" or amongst the uneducated poor? - so maybe be more specific?

 

[KivaSupporter]

Yes, we've seen this side a lot. What about the OTHER side of it?

Sorry, Herat. I misunderstood you.

 

[CMac2]

But why? Is the assumption she wouldn't have screamed if it wasn't a homeless guy? hmm jk..

No- I just can't make sense of the random homeless guy yet. I'm trying to get there... but it just isn't playing out for me.

 

[alpmighty]

just the thought of experiencing this type of violence is gonna give me nightmares for weeks. This poor woman.

Maybe he does have a bite on his hand. There's only one way to find out.

Let it not, my friend. For the people with virtue far out numbers those who are devoid of it. Such is humanity, don't lose your faith.

Justice will be served.

 

[KivaSupporter]

Where did the woman say she saw the white car with the blanket and hand sticking out? Was it near this area? Could LE have put that story out there to try to explain how they found her body? Could one of the killer's associates/witnesses have told LE what happened and they didn't want the killer to know they were on to him?

It was near this area, according to the media, and I agree with you. That is certainly possible.

 

[alpmighty]

Many pages ago I postulated that she was along the train track side of the wall photographing when maybe hit by a train or by a stranger.

Someone roundly ridiculed me for the theory.

*cough, cough"

I note his absence in the current discussion.

I'm glad to be able to receive your insights, Herat. They've been most revealing for me, as you clearly have extensive forensics and crime scene investigation experience and knowledge, areas that I don'tconsider myself strong in.

 

[alpmighty]

It would definitely be quite the twist if they find her iPad and most photos turn out to be of coastal artilleries positioned for the protection of the Bosporus strait.

:floorlaugh:

There aren't any modern anti surface artillery present around Bosphorus, I'm a Navy brat.

 

[KivaSupporter]

Everybody has some ties. And people long to be attached to some place.

People even get emotionally attached to the butt prints they make on the couch.

But they may always be ready to leave if necessary. That I most definitely agree.

Yashim, you are so right. I totally agree with you.

 

[alpmighty]

But what do you think about my other question: "If they are so concerned with survival, why would they resort to criminal acts, knowing this could put them in the hands of LE, if he were covered in mud, could he have been trying to help her?" Thanks.

Provided they get rid of the merchandise which may incriminate them if found on them quickly for cash, they'd stay trouble free. Cash helps a lot on the survival side as well.

 

[KivaSupporter]

Here's some operational and organizational insight of Turkish LE for sleuthers that aren't Turkish nationals:

Turkish LE is highly centralized. Every province is a seperate administrative organization, thus you can hear Istanbul Police, Izmir Police or Ankara Police. However, they are all centrally administered. Operationally, Turkish National Police falls under Ministry of Justice. Administratively and organizationally, they fall under Ministery of Interior. As provincal prosecutors and chiefs of police report to the province governor, which is appointed by the government and works for Ministery of Interior, you can say that MoI is running the show.

SS case is being handled by Istanbul Homicide Branch. Statements of individuals are handled mostly by them. However, it is possible that individuals' statements that are considered peripheral to the case are handled by Istanbul Public Order branch and passed onto Homicide Branch. Public Order branch are the Police you see patrolling streets, initially responding to incidents and mainly manning the precincts.

This Z is almost certainly from underdeveloped Eastern Provinces. He emigrated from his place of birth to Istanbul. Failing that, he must be born into such a family, which previously immigrated to Istanbul.

Eastern Provinces come into play, as Police intelligence and records for those who hail from there are more extensive than they are for from those who are from other regions. Reason for this is simple, there's been a Kurdish insurgency in the region revolving around Marxist terrorist organization PKK for the last 30 years. Easterners almost always face more scrutiny against possible ties to insurgency, their records are more extensively maintained.

This makes identifying Z even more easier. All Homicide had to do is to correspond with Intelligence Branch and Counterinsurgency Branch. Those branches can easily provide information for Turkish Nationals hailing from Eastern Provinces, even more so from what can be fetched from the central databases for any other national not from Eastern Provinces.

Lastly, I assume Homicide is corresponding with Foreigners Branch actively as well, as it is the Foreigners Branch which handles foreigners coming in and out of the country, administrating extended stay and permanent residencies, even manning the border points, checking arrival documentations. Besides, Foreigners Branch must have more English speaking personnel than other branches. I'm sure at least a liasion was appointed to Homicide from them to handle correspondence with US LE.

New generation of academy graduate Police Officers are highly educated though, more than the old school ones, knowledge of English is bound to be more common among them. But again, such Police Officers are junior or middle grade by now, so there's a good chance senior grade homicide people assigned to the case are supplemented by English speaking officers.

I wouldn't be surprised a lot if I learn that some of the assigned homicide guys are watching our correspondence and smiling after seeing theories discussed here.

Alpmight, thank you for your posts. You, and others (hi, Yashim), have helped me understand various things, especially the culture in Turkey. It is very valuable to hear what the locals think.

Noting the time difference, do you guys ever sleep? Jk

 

[EncyclopediaBrown]

this may be offtopic but what will happen to this guy if he is in fact the killer?
life sentence or could he get death? how does that work?

 

[alpmighty]

I sincerely hope local LE doesn't hang its hat on the theory that "he was covered in dirt so the killer must have been Jim" just to cave to international scrutiny. The fact that local LE doesn't normally dedicate this level of resources to the death of a woman has got to be weighing on its desire to wrap up the investigation.

Nope, there's already political pressure on LE to solve the case satisfactorily. Any wrap up or scape grating will raise more questions on the basis of high publicity of the case and such will be completely unsatisfactory.

 

[KivaSupporter]

It would definitely be quite the twist if they find her iPad and most photos turn out to be of coastal artilleries positioned for the protection of the Bosporus strait.

:floorlaugh:

You never know. You just might be right. Stranger things have happened.

 

[KivaSupporter]

Crime when taken as breaking of the law does not necessarily suggest a wrong doing. There used to be laws enforcing racial segregation.

So law alone doesn't tell people what is right or wrong.

However we have penalities for those who break the law or do wrong: legal sanctions (fine, imprisonment, mutilation, capital punishment) along with social sanctions and internal sanctions (steming from one's conscience).

So it only comes down to a matter of balancing the expected cost of these sanctions with the expected benefit of committing the crime.

For crime to happen, "Expected Benefit" should be equal to or greater than "Expected legal cost" + "Expected social sanction" + "Expected internal sanction"

Assuming our guy feels he won't be condemned by people around him for this crime and has low values, he only has to worry about the expected legal cost.

And expected legal cost is "his chance of getting caught" multiplied by "punishment for homicide". Eg. if the fine for a red light violation is $200 and the chance of getting caught is 50%. Expected cost is $100.

The amount the perp receives by selling the stolen goods or the utility he gets from the sex offense should be worth more than his expected legal cost.

When he miscalculates and believes that his chance of getting caught is almost zero, he will rape anyone, he will steal anything.

If he there were more police officers patroling those areas and he had seen them before, he wouldn't think his chance of getting caught to be so low. IMHO. Or if he had high morals or was in a community with greater social values.

And none of this would have happened.

But positioning those police officers there might have cause higher social costs elsewhere.

Wow, and all this time I thought you were either a high-level LE, a spy or maybe even Taylan! Are you a lawyer?

 

[alpmighty]

I feel the same. This makes absolutely zero sense at all.

Apart from the road itself, the area around the walls cannot be considered crowded. It would be hard for passing by vehicles hearing screams, cold weather makes it unpleasant to drive around windows rolled down. Besides, we're not even sure where the body was found is the actual crime scene. We'll know more when Z is apprehended and interrogated.

 

[Rolandred]

Provided they get rid of the merchandise which may incriminate them if found on them quickly for cash, they'd stay trouble free. Cash helps a lot on the survival side as well.

Okay - so then I guess one could say that these poor trash collectors from small villages are uneducated, do not speak english, are living in marginal conditions, and some of them are murderous violent muggers that will get rid of merchandise they have stolen from their victims which may incriminate them if found on them quickly- for cash. But this guy is not trouble free - he is being pursued by the police.

How did the media get this story?

 

[Yashim]

But what do you think about my other question: "If they are so concerned with survival, why would they resort to criminal acts, knowing this could put them in the hands of LE, if he were covered in mud, could he have been trying to help her?" Thanks.

Crime when defined as breaking of the law does not necessarily suggest a wrong doing. There used to be laws enforcing racial segregation.

So law alone doesn't tell people what is right or wrong.

However we have penalities for those who break the law or do wrong: legal sanctions (fine, imprisonment, mutilation, capital punishment) along with social sanctions and internal sanctions (steming from one's conscience).

So it only comes down to a matter of balancing the expected cost of these sanctions with the expected benefit of committing the crime.

For crime to happen, "Expected Benefit" should be equal to or greater than "Expected legal cost" + "Expected social sanction" + "Expected internal sanction"

Assuming our guy feels he won't be condemned by people around him for this crime and has low values, he only has to worry about the expected legal cost.

And expected legal cost is "his chance of getting caught" multiplied by "punishment for homicide". Eg. if the fine for a red light violation is $200 and the chance of getting caught is 50%. Expected cost is $100.

The amount the perp receives by selling the stolen goods or the utility he gets from the sex offense should be worth more than his expected legal cost.

When he miscalculates and believes that his chance of getting caught is almost zero, he will rape anyone, he will steal anything.

If he there were more police officers patroling those areas and he had seen them before, he wouldn't think his chance of getting caught to be so low. IMHO. Or if he had high morals or was in a community with greater social values.

And none of this would have happened.

But positioning those police officers there might have cause higher social costs elsewhere. That's perhaps another discussion.

 

[alpmighty]

Could the attacker have attacked as a train began to pass? How often do trains pass by there, and would a train have been loud enough to drown out her screams? Is the roadway traffic nearby noisy? Maybe he hit her in the head with the rock after the train had passed and he feared someone might hear her?

Possible, but those are suburban lines AFAIK, and they carry passengers. If there is a line of view, you'd have witnesses.

 

[CMac2]

Apart from the road itself, the area around the walls cannot be considered crowded. It would be hard for passing by vehicles hearing screams, cold weather makes it unpleasant to drive around windows rolled down. Besides, we're not even sure where the body was found is the actual crime scene. We'll know more when Z is apprehended and interrogated.

Mentally, I'm lagging pretty far behind many on this thread. I have no problem with the logistics of this crime, and the fact that it is 100% possible that Z committed it. I know the area is prime for criminal activity- I get all that, logically speaking.

What I'm referring to is the fact that a stranger killed SS. I just can't get that to make any sense to me, given the other information we have. I don't quite buy it just yet.

I'm definitely enjoying reading everyone else's thoughts, as they let this theory play out. Hopefully something one of you guys says will help me change my mind!

 

[necco]

If Sarai had headphones in while she was taking pictures, it's entirely possible Z (or her killer if it turns out not to be Z) had her gagged or incapacitated before she even knew he was there.

I actually hope he hit her before she knew he was there. That would be the kindest death in this situation.