GUILTY Turkey - Sarai Sierra, 33, NY woman murdered, Istanbul, 21 Jan 2013 - #4

[Yashim]

why in earth would they announce that they were looking for this guy when they hadn't yet found him, when they already said they were annoyed at papers for scaring people off.

You might just have answered your own question there.

Question:

Why in earth would they announce that they were looking for this guy

Answer:

They hadn't yet found him

They are probably %90 sure or something like that. They need others' cooperation and also cause the perp to make a mistake, e.g. attempting to leave Istanbul via an intercity bus.

 

[KuriousKev]

We have all had great sympathy for the family in this case and almost all of us have deplored some of the things reported about their wife, Mother, and daughter. I wonder, if in years to come, Sarai's Mother or son should come to a Board like this and post their feelings about that malignant coverage...if you will answer them with sarcasm and unkindness?

I bet the 1st question SS's children will ask is what the heck was she thinking leaving us here and traveling to that place alone to meet and stay with guys she met online. Maybe they'll think that was very selfish and irresponsible of her? Who knows what they'll think? None of us do.

 

[belimom]

Huh - the garbage man - which who knows since they haven't found him to match the DNA - perhaps there was random garbage on the blanket or on her and so they knew she had come into contact with garbage?

If so, then he would be one person who could get away with carrying a large bag/bundle somewhere and not look suspicious. He could even have carried trash out of the hole/walls upon exiting, to make it look like he had picked up trash in there.

This is a turn I didn't expect...

 

[Yashim]

Yes, we could very well be trying to rationalize the actions of an irrational human being. If Z is suffering from some sort of illness that interferes with the thought process (either addiction or some organic mental illness) logic may not play a huge role in his purview.

(note: the VAST majority of organic mental illnesses do not lead to violence)

I wouldn't say irrational. May be he took them, but they fell on the ground. Maybe he is farsighted. Maybe he thought of takşng the jewelry, but forgot about it.

There is a fact that will explain it. Not knowing that fact will either cause us to derive inaccurate conclusions or diagnose it as irrationality (or bounded rationality).

 

[necco]

I wouldn't say irrational. May be he took them, but they fell on the ground. Maybe he is farsighted. Maybe he thought of takşng the jewelry, but forgot about it.

There is a fact that will explain it. Not knowing that fact will either cause us to derive inaccurate conclusions or diagnose it as irrationality (or bounded rationality).

By the way, Yashim, if Z turns out to be 14, I think we all owe you a cup of Ali the carpet merchant's apple tea.

 

[alpmighty]

My original theory was an outlandish one about a drugs mule. Reading different theories and arguments for and against made a phrase come to mind "hiding in plain sight". As soon as I read that report from a seasoned lone traveller I realised I should stop over-complicating matters and focus instead on nothing but the facts - a first-time traveller exploring alone found herself in an isolated area.

Occam's Razor.

 

[Yashim]

I only have one thing to say at this moment. If 'Z' the trashman did it.....

:skip:

Trashman. Yes, that's the word I was looking for.

Thanks, CMac2.

LE said the main suspect is a trashman. (Trashmen, as the name suggests, collect paper, bottles and cans out of garbage containers in order to sell to the recycling plants.)

:woohoo:

 

[alpmighty]

I'm sorry to interrupt your fascinating argument about the bias of media, but there's kind of a major development in the case we've been sleuthing.

So, a garbage man in Turkey is not a municipal employee, but someone who collects recyclables?

I wonder why the iPad and phone were taken, but not the jewelry.

Garbageman translation might be inaccurate. Garbageman are municipal employees, yes. But this Z might be a scavenger, collecting cans etc. to resell and make some money.

 

[Yashim]

Occam's Razor.

Yes, exactly.

We should have written Occam's Razor on a post-it and placed it on our screens.

 

[Yashim]

Garbageman translation might be inaccurate. Garbageman are municipal employees, yes. But this Z might be a scavenger, collecting cans etc. to resell and make some money.

You should have pulled that trigger faster, Alpmighty.

Do you wanna go again to see who has the fastest fingers in the West?

 

[NewYork625]

Even if both are acquired through theft, a woman's jewelry may cause problems. Unless dissolved, it may show up some place.

But I doubt this was the reason.

Sometimes, trying to make sense of everything may weaken even the strongest of indicators.

Especially when you just don't have the facts to make any sense of them. Kinda like the noisy data in statistics.

I speculated earlier that her jewelry may have been too covered in blood. Head wounds bleed profusely, and if her fingers were broken when she held them in a defensive motion trying to protect her head, her ring(s) may have also been bloodied. The killer may have not intended to kill her originally, and may have been too repulsed by what he had done to her to try to remove her jewelry.
As i also speculated earlier, he may have covered her handbag containing her ipad and phone with her coat as he fled with it.

 

[english]

Occam's Razor.

Exactly. I think you mentioned it previously but I didn't write it as didn't want to look an idiot if I got the spelling wrong.

 

[necco]

Exactly. I think you mentioned it previously but I didn't write it as didn't want to look an idiot if I got the spelling wrong.

Hehe, Occam and Ockham are both acceptable spellings.

And yes, a good chunk of us made this WAY too complicated.

 

[alpmighty]

You should have pulled that trigger faster, Alpmighty.

Do you wanna go again to see who has the fastest fingers in the West?

You already know I trail the posts from behind and send responses before I move on to more recents ones. My apologies, your honor.

 

[english]

I speculated earlier that her jewelry may have been too covered in blood. Head wounds bleed profusely, and if her fingers were broken when she held them in a defensive motion trying to protect her head, her ring(s) may have also been bloodied. The killer may have not intended to kil her originally, and may have been too repulsed by what he had done to her to try to remove her jewelry.
As i also speculated earlier, he may have covered her handbag containing her ipad and phone with her coat as he fled with it.

After spending a winter sleeping rough his fingers may not be adept enough to fiddle around with jewellery. Or am I thinking too simplistically now?

 

[Yashim]

I speculated earlier that her jewelry may have been too covered in blood. Head wounds bleed profusely, and if her fingers were broken when she held them in a defensive motion trying to protect her head, her ring(s) may have also been bloodied. The killer may have not intended to kil her originally, and may have been too repulsed by what he had done to her to try to remove her jewelry.
As i also speculated earlier, he may have covered her handbag containing her ipad and phone with her coat as he fled with it.

I totally agree.

I think he was initially after the electronics.

We don't still know if there was really a rape attempt, even a post-mortem one. It's also a speculation for LE.

Had there been one, I doubt he was that coldblooded, searching for a jewelry on a dead body.

 

[NewYork625]

Huh - the garbage man - which who knows since they haven't found him to match the DNA - perhaps there was random garbage on the blanket or on her and so they knew she had come into contact with garbage?

If so, then he would be one person who could get away with carrying a large bag/bundle somewhere and not look suspicious. He could even have carried trash out of the hole/walls upon exiting, to make it look like he had picked up trash in there.

This is a turn I didn't expect...

Fortunately the fact that he was covered in mud gave him away.

 

[Yashim]

By the way, Yashim, if Z turns out to be 14, I think we all owe you a cup of Ali the carpet merchant's apple tea.

Unfortunately, Z is 46.

I still think my calculations revealed the correct numbers.

I should have just followed through with my calculations:

14 * (4-1) = 42

(42 + 4)/1 = 46

 

[monkey222]

Her pants may have been pulled down in an attempt to find a money belt, as Z would have caught on that she was a tourist.

 

[alpmighty]

Z will be apprehended. There is no question about it.

Turkish ID records are highly centralized and accessible to authorized organizations. Turkish citizens and even permanent residents all are assigned unique ID numbers. Every aspect of the life, including banking, social security, taxes (every possible GOV related errand) is handled through your ID number.

Except for assuming the identity of another alive person, forging ID is impossible as even running into a LE checkpoint will turn up a non matching ID and raise a red flag, getting you apprehended in the process.

If Z is a scavenger and as Yashim guessed, a native of Eastern provinces, he will be caught, sooner or later.

A profile like the scavenger does not have the resources to go completely off the grid, UBL style. He might have a strong ethnical identity and might try to get help from his tribesman, but they will be at best unwilling to aid him as they will well know he is a wanted man and LE will be relentless. He also will not be able to escape through Eastern Borders, he doesn't have the money, he most likely won't speak the language, and he is bound to make mistakes even if he manages to cross into, say, Northern Iraq.

Just from his name and surname, LE should have had his ID number by now and with that, they will also know all his blood relatives.

Only way he can evade getting apprehended is getting himself killed, commiting suicide. Even so, his body will be identified.

His days on the run are numbered.