GUILTY Turkey - Sarai Sierra, 33, NY woman murdered, Istanbul, 21 Jan 2013 - #4

[Herat]

It is even possible Z might not be alone as it is common for garbage collectors to operate in small groups.

Any garbage collectors turned up dead recently?

 

[alpmighty]

Do you think the Z refers to a surname or a first name, or does it matter?

ie: For USAnians, the surname is a family name from the father's surname which is much more linked traceable than the first name, which is given at birth and may or may not have any reference to the family?

I know in Saharan and sub-Saharan Africa, the first name may be the family name and the surname may be a given name at birth, causing confusion for us westerners.

Z will be known by his first name, appearance, and the province he was born in among the scavenger / homeless community. Press knows how old he is, which shows LE already narrowed down his date of birth, surname and ID number. So, solely from the ID number, LE can easily query his relatives and descendants up to 1920s. Every Turkish national, even the deceased ones at the time of implementation of ID numbers were assigned one and family records and such are included in the central database.

 

[alpmighty]

Any garbage collectors turned up dead recently?

No. LE is already looking into those as well, I'm sure.

 

[Yashim]

OMG, you almost got this one pegged...except for the age, employment. Excellent job, Sleuther Yashim!

To be fair, most of us posters did give this random stranger murderer at least .05% probability. lol

I hope they find this perp. I hope the DNA under her fingernails matches him and that his DNA wasn't accidentally transferred onto her body by some odd coincidence, and that DNA wasn't planted. Oh, and that he wasn't wearing gloves.

Thanks, Bourne.

But I doubt I deserve these nice comments.

You guys did the real sleuthing.

I mostly relied on my instincts. It was a local advantage really.

For example, when a tourist sees a hobo in Istanbul, leaning against a streetlight pole, eyeing up and down the women passing by, what would he conclude?

A potential sex offender? Perhaps. That's what I would do, too.

What if he was eyeing up and down everybody?

I'd say "undercover cop".

And it took me quite some time to learn that.

 

[Yashim]

I propose, after Z is apprehended and if he turns out to be the perp, let's purge the forums off of any possible offensive references, remarks and theories against SS. As it was said before, what we discuss here is highly public, and I think it would be well on our side to show some respect for those who SS left behind.

And don't forget to press the thank you button for my below post. You might have missed it when it first appeared.

I know you mean well. And what you pray for is very noble.

Nonetheless, I fail to understand: What is wrong with Sarai's reputation?

She is the one who is dead. The perp is out there.

Sarai no longer cares about her reputation.

And, LE explicitly stated that so far they have not found any evidence that may implicate Sarai's involvement in anything illegal, whether espionage, drug trafficking, or anything else.

I believe it's those who come up with such accusations are the ones who should be worried about their reputations. They should be seeking forgiveness from both God and Sarai's family.

 

[Yashim]

Any garbage collectors turned up dead recently?

That would only make things more complicated.

We don't want that. Please.

 

[Morag]

...her many injuries. Z has apparently said he fell down the hill, perhaps it was while he was struggling with Sarai, trying to rob her. Maybe they both rolled down the hill.

 

[Yashim]

.

<<And call me biased, but I don't think Turks are capable of committing crimes>>.


Are you kidding?

Of course, I was kidding.

Turks do commit crimes.

However, their skills in committing crimes rarely match their skills in concealing it.

That's something that sets them apart from the rest.

 

[ThinkHard]

I speculated earlier that her jewelry may have been too covered in blood. Head wounds bleed profusely, and if her fingers were broken when she held them in a defensive motion trying to protect her head, her ring(s) may have also been bloodied. The killer may have not intended to kill her originally, and may have been too repulsed by what he had done to her to try to remove her jewelry.
As i also speculated earlier, he may have covered her handbag containing her ipad and phone with her coat as he fled with it.

But if what you say is true, then her coat too would have been covered in blood, why cover a handbag with a bloody coat?

 

[NewYork625]

But if what you say is true, then her coat too would have been covered in blood, why cover a handbag with a bloody coat?

Maybe she wasn't wearing her coat. Maybe she took it off because she was warm and was carrying it. If it was her dark brown leather jacket the blood might not have been as apparent. A man running with a handbag might be more noticeable.

He would likely have been covered in blood and mud, and it might look like his jacket.

 

[Yashim]

Do you think the Z refers to a surname or a first name, or does it matter?

ie: For USAnians, the surname is a family name from the father's surname which is much more linked traceable than the first name, which is given at birth and may or may not have any reference to the family?

I know in Saharan and sub-Saharan Africa, the first name may be the family name and the surname may be a given name at birth, causing confusion for us westerners.

Z must be the first name. In Turkey we rarely use last name alone unless refering to a politician, statesman, or some artist or something.

However, it could also be possible that Z is the only letter LE has for now. Telling press to let them think they know more to earn some time.

I can totally imagine them saying:

"We think Z did it. And he did it for S. He then hid the body in F. We suspect A and B are his accomplices. We can assure you that we will catch them in X days."

And maybe Z actually stands for "Zanli" which means "Suspect" in Turkish.

Or are we back on Square One?

 

[alpmighty]

Z must be the first name. In Turkey we rarely use last name alone unless refering to a politician, statesman, or some artist or something.

However, it could also be possible that Z is the only letter LE has for now. Telling press to let them think they know more to earn some time.

I can totally imagine them saying:

"We think Z did it. And he did it for S. He then hid the body in F. We suspect A and B are his accomplices. We can assure you that we will catch them in X days."

And maybe Z actually stands for "Zanli" which means "Suspect" in Turkish.

Or are we back on Square One?

This time, you've missed my post.

As I've written and you again theorized in your own post, Z would be known to other scavengers / homeless by his first name, appearance and the province he is from.

Press reports indicate his age. This probably means LE released that, as there'd be no plausible way for press to have learnt his age from other scavengers / homeless.

LE knowing his age means they already have his date of birth, surname, province he was born in, his ID number, his family ties and everything. It is simple for LE to make a query into central databases solely based on his first name, his place of birth and his appearence.

LE must have leaked his ID to increase the pressure on him. If he is even partially publicized, he will be unlikely to receive support from his family or tribesman / kinsman to be on the run. No family member, tribesman, kinsman would be inclined to help him as they'll correctly assume that he is 'hot' right now, LE will be relentless and aiding him will get them into serious trouble.

I wouldn't even be surprised if he turns himself in, realizing he's out of options, or even commits suicide. If he is not smart enough to realize this, and he might very well be so, he'll continue to run as best as he can, but he doesn't have resources enough to be on the run for long successfuly, and he'll be apprehended at some point.

 

[Yashim]

It remains to be seen if the perp is a Turkish national. I suspect not, but we'll see.

He is Turkish. Believe me.

It has come to my observation that in Turkey when charged with a crime, people rarely object being called Turkish.

 

[ThinkHard]

At this point I don't give the garbage man story too much credit. Turkish media has said a lot of unsubstantiated info. They then got chastised by LE.

LE has DNA'ed 50 some odd suspects....the latest round of which we have not heard a peep of info about. Now you really expect me to believe that a random garbage man, who they only have info about through secondary sources, and have not even spoken to him or collected his DNA is their prime suspect. Simply because he was dirty on the day SS disappeared, he's a garbage collector of course he's going to be dirty.

Look I'm not saying he didn't do it. I just think so far its a pretty weak argument.

My theory is that the press just got bored, and needed something to report. Or LE had press report this story, because they are extremely close at nailing someone else, and they want the general public to be convinced LE is pursuing the garage man angle, to not scare off the real perp.

 

[alpmighty]

At this point I don't give the garbage man story too much credit. Turkish media has said a lot of unsubstantiated info. They then got chastised by LE.

LE has DNA'ed 50 some odd suspects....the latest round of which we have not heard a peep of info about. Now you really expect me to believe that a random garbage man, who they only have info about through secondary sources, and have not even spoken to him or collected his DNA is their prime suspect. Simply because he was dirty on the day SS disappeared, he's a garbage collector of course he's going to be dirty.

Look I'm not saying he didn't do it. I just think so far its a pretty weak argument.

My theory is that the press just got bored, and needed something to report. Or LE had press report this story, because they are extremely close at nailing someone else, and they want the general public to be convinced LE is pursuing the garage man angle, to not scare off the real perp.

This time it's different from the previous press speculation we've seen.

Press is even providing his age, which, as I tried to explain, would be hard to know for reporters, or even Z's contacts among other scavangers / homeless. A scavenger / homeless type doesn't have an online presence that the press and even we were able to track from the Internet as it was the case with SS IG contacts. This Z guy is at the bottom of the food chain, unlike previous considerations, who were at least lower middle class and with public online presences, which fueled press speculation in the first place.

This smells like a purposeful leak to increase pressure on this guy. Don't forget, he is on the run. He disappeared around the time SS was missing. Press even says he tried to explain his extraordinary appearence around the date that SS was murdered by stating to his contacts he simply fell off the walls.

There are too many details in reports for this to be mere speculation.

Z will be apprehended very shortly. There are certain variables that might make a good DNA match impossible after his apprehension, depending on what type of bio samples were found on SS after the body's discovery. We don't know for sure what the LE has in that compartment. However, irregardless of DNA match, if he did it, he cannot manage not to break under interrogation.

This guy isn't particularly smart or educated.

 

[Yashim]

This time, you've missed my post.

As I've written and you again theorized in your own post, Z would be known to other scavengers / homeless by his first name, appearance and the province he is from.

Press reports indicate his age. This probably means LE released that, as there'd be no plausible way for press to have learnt his age from other scavengers / homeless.

LE knowing his age means they already have his date of birth, surname, province he was born in, his ID number, his family ties and everything. It is simple for LE to make a query into central databases solely based on his first name, his place of birth and his appearence.

LE must have leaked his ID to increase the pressure on him. If he is even partially publicized, he will be unlikely to receive support from his family or tribesman / kinsman to be on the run. No family member, tribesman, kinsman would be inclined to help him as they'll correctly assume that he is 'hot' right now, LE will be relentless and aiding him will get them into serious trouble.

I wouldn't even be surprised if he turns himself in, realizing he's out of options, or even commits suicide. If he is not smart enough to realize this, and he might very well be so, he'll continue to run as best as he can, but he doesn't have resources enough to be on the run for long successfuly, and he'll be apprehended at some point.

So, LE know his whole ID.

I had thought they got the age using my method.

 

[alpmighty]

So, LE know his whole ID.

I had thought they got the age using my method.

Press is quoting his exact age, not a presumed age range. That certainity led me to believe LE already fully identified him and leaked it to press on purpose.

 

[ThinkHard]

Press is quoting his exact age, not a presumed age range. That certainity led me to believe LE already fully identified him and leaked it to press on purpose.

Yes but how do we know what the press is leaking is accurate...at this point we don't.

And even if they really are looking for this guy....that still doesn't make him the perp.

 

[Yashim]

... Simply because he was dirty on the day SS disappeared, he's a garbage collector of course he's going to be dirty.

Yes, but they meant "dirtier than what would be expected of a garbageman (trahsman)."

Perhaps, LE talked some witnesses who said "we saw him covered in mud, he said he fell off the city walls"

Why would he come with such an excuse instead of just saying

"Of course, I am dirty. I am the trashmeister"

 

[Herat]

he's a garbage collector of course he's going to be dirty.

Don't buy that assumption

There's a big difference between being "dirty" disheveled, poor, and unwashed and being "covered in mud."

What stands out in the LE description was that he was [unusually] covered in mud.

I also don't think the people in Yashmin's video look covered in mud. They look a bit unwashed, wearing some dirty clothes, but not anything that would stand out.

For the reason of his appearance, Purported Perp Z stands out from the unwashed crowd.