TX TX-Hunt, Overnight flooding at Camp Mystic, all girls camp. Unknown number of missing. July 4, 2025

[AngTxGal]

NYT gift article: County Emergency Official Says He Was Ill and Sleeping as Texas Floods Hit

It’s sad to see that a contributor to this disaster was lack of delegation of authority over the holiday. The emergency management coordinator in Kerr County was scheduled to be off on July 3rd, and a sickness caused him to be tuned out and sleeping throughout the following night. Why would his supervisor, the county judge, not have made sure to either cover his duties or find someone else to? The county judge himself was also out of town for the holiday weekend and he did not seem to find anyone to cover himself either.

I’m not surprised as I had expected the holiday weekend to have factored into the situation. Just sad to see it’s true. Imagine how different things could have been if SOMEONE was on top of this situation.

It appears as if there is no coincidence there was No loss of life in Kendall Co, the deaths were from Kerr County.
While the same information was available to public officials and decision makers, those in Kerr County behaved very differently than those in Kendall County. The contrast is shocking!

Based on what I’ve observed of the hearings, Kerr County was caught unaware, reacted rather than planned ahead, and those in positions to give the warnings were unavailable to do so.
While in Kendall County they were watching the weather, proactive, and leaders sent out the alert to evacuate as soon as they saw signs of danger.

Kerr is northwest of Kendall, an expert would have to chime in to analyze if this may have contributed.

History is watching, capturing their words, replaying their expressions, listening to the answers to questions, and sending clips of their responses all over the world. That was not possible in 1987.

In 1987 there were not personal computers, cell phones, the internet, social media, or the weather modeling systems we have today. Surely we can do better.

There will be no place for anyone who was responsible to hide from accountability.
Our public servants are elected to serve the public.
Lives were lost, property was lost, people’s lives were upended, and the cleanup will take months, and grieving take longer. No one is looking the other way or easily swallowing excuses.

To put it bluntly, as my Dad would if he was still here, There are some good ole boys that should be shaking in their boots and crapping in their pants!

In Texas, this isn’t over yet
Heartbroken
IMO

 

[Friday Fan]

It appears as if there is no coincidence that there was No loss of life in Kendall Co, the deaths were from Kerr County.
While the same information was available to public officials and decision makers, those in Kerr County behaved very differently than those in Kendall County. The contrast is shocking!

Based on what I’ve observed of the hoardings, Kerr County was caught unaware, reacted rather than planned ahead, and those in positions to give the warnings were unavailable to do so.
While in Kendall County they were watching the weather, proactive, and leaders sent out the alert to evacuate as soon as they saw signs of danger.

Kerr is northwest of Kendall, an expert would have to chime in to analyze if this may have contributed.

History is watching, capturing their words, replaying their expressions, listening to the answers to questions, and sending clips of their responses all over the world. That was not possible in 1987.

In 1987 there were not personal computers, cell phones, the internet, social media, or the weather modeling systems we have today. Surely we can do better.

There will be no place for anyone who was responsible to hide from accountability.
Our public servants are elected to serve the public.
Lives were lost, property was lost, people’s lives were upended, and the cleanup will take months, and grieving take longer. No one is looking the other way or easily swallowing excuses.

To put it bluntly, as my Dad would if he was still here, There are some good ole boys that should be shaking in their boots and crapping in their pants!

In Texas, this isn’t over yet
Heartbroken
IMO

I liked this woman's testimony. She said complacency and that was the first thing that came to my mind! It's been a total drought for 20 years, so people "forget".

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I also caught this post from KSAT retired meteorologist on July 3d.

Meteorologist Steve Browne

Rain bomb potential. Earlier this week I talked about similarities on this week's weather maps to what we saw in the great July flood of 2002. So far this week rain has been manageable in SA but...

www.facebook.com

Rain bomb potential. Earlier this week I talked about similarities on this week's weather maps to what we saw in the great July flood of 2002......The Del Rio weather balloon this morning shows a nearly saturated atmosphere from the ground up to 45,000 feet. That's like a nine mile deep, soaking wet sponge hanging overhead in the atmosphere.........Conventional computer models are notoriously poor at forecasting these events because the grid scale of most models is much too coarse to pick them up. That being said there is one high resolution model that is hinting at such an event developing tonight

_________________


Yes, Kerr is adjacent and upstream to Kendall.

I don't think any expert is needed, except that the North Fork and South Fork headwaters are very difficult to evacuate once it begins to flood, because there is a low water crossing every 1/4 mile. Although the roads appear to wind, it's actually the river that winds. There is no cell service either.
What strikes me between the riverfronts in the two counties is that Kerr has tons of riverfront properties on the north and south forks. They appear to be "high-end vacation properties".

I'm from Wisconsin, where lakefront property rules. The North and South Fork remind of northern Wisconsin. Vacation homes "on the water". The property values are also sky high.

 

[legomonster]

Flash Flood Warning including Kerrville TX, Ingram TX and Camp Verde TX until 7:15 PM CDT.

Flash Flood Warning

 

[legomonster]

Flash Flood Warning. The Guadalupe River is rising and is expected to crest at 11.5 feet in a minor flooding stage.

Guadalupe River at Hunt

 

[jennytrevor]

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I'm not sure if this podcast episode has been discussed, but I listened to it today when I was trying to find updated info about the recent hearings. Did not find any recent info. This episode was from July 8th and it featured an interview with a young camper who escaped the flooding as well as an interview with that girl's mother, who also attended the camp and used to work there in the recent past. The mother states that as a Camp Mystic employee, she was trained on "extensive flood evacuation plans." She does not elaborate on those plans, just states how she thought the girls were in great hands and was not initially worried. It makes me wonder why those evacuation plans were not activated that night, even thought it was clear at some point that a lot of rain was coming down.

 

[Gemmie]

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I'm not sure if this podcast episode has been discussed, but I listened to it today when I was trying to find updated info about the recent hearings. Did not find any recent info. This episode was from July 8th and it featured an interview with a young camper who escaped the flooding as well as an interview with that girl's mother, who also attended the camp and used to work there in the recent past. The mother states that as a Camp Mystic employee, she was trained on "extensive flood evacuation plans." She does not elaborate on those plans, just states how she thought the girls were in great hands and was not initially worried. It makes me wonder why those evacuation plans were not activated that night, even thought it was clear at some point that a lot of rain was coming down.

BBMFF

It makes me wonder if the extensive flood evacuation plans included informing giving the girls a safety briefing shortly after then arrived. You know, like the safety briefing that happens before a plane takes off on how to exit the plane in an emergency, if oxygen masks drop put them on yourself first, etc.

 

[jennytrevor]

BBMFF

It makes me wonder if the extensive flood evacuation plans included informing giving the girls a safety briefing shortly after then arrived. You know, like the safety briefing that happens before a plane takes off on how to exit the plane in an emergency, if oxygen masks drop put them on yourself first, etc.

I would hope that's at least part of it. But I would also think there is a lot more to it and I wonder where it failed. Was the camp director expecting a notification from someone if evacuation was warranted? Maybe someone like the county emergency manager or judge who were previously discussed? Who knows....hopefully it will come out eventually.

 

[Friday Fan]

I would hope that's at least part of it. But I would also think there is a lot more to it and I wonder where it failed. Was the camp director expecting a notification from someone if evacuation was warranted? Maybe someone like the county emergency manager or judge who were previously discussed? Who knows....hopefully it will come out eventually.

They were not prepared for that kinda of storm! No one was. They would have had to move 450 kids out of the area before it started raining. That would have never happened. Some made it up to the top of the hill. However, to make the decision to go to the top of the hill early on, risked going out in lightening. Only Mystic and La Junta were in session on the South Fork. All of the La Junta boys survived, but they also almost drowned. They were stuck in cabins, huddled on top bunks. La Junta sits on somewhat higher ground and the cabins are much closer together than Camp Mystic. One cabin at La Junta started floating away, but then it became lodged and stuck

Clinging to rafters: How staff at all-boys camp in Texas saved hundreds from floodwaters

Taking swift action, counselors at Camp La Junta in the Texas Hill Country managed to evacuate hundreds of children from a raging flood.

www.usatoday.com

The only way to prepare for that kind of flood is to "get to higher ground". However, story after story is that no one left ahead of time. Most people who survived felt their lives were in danger and considered themselves lucky.

 

[jennytrevor]

They were not prepared for that kinda of storm! No one was. They would have had to move 450 kids out of the area before it started raining. That would have never happened. Some made it up to the top of the hill. However, to make the decision to go to the top of the hill early on, risked going out in lightening. Only Mystic and La Junta were in session on the South Fork. All of the La Junta boys survived, but they also almost drowned. They were stuck in cabins, huddled on top bunks. La Junta sits on somewhat higher ground and the cabins are much closer together than Camp Mystic. One cabin at La Junta started floating away, but then it became lodged and stuck

Clinging to rafters: How staff at all-boys camp in Texas saved hundreds from floodwaters

Taking swift action, counselors at Camp La Junta in the Texas Hill Country managed to evacuate hundreds of children from a raging flood.

www.usatoday.com

The only way to prepare for that kind of flood is to "get to higher ground". However, story after story is that no one left ahead of time. Most people who survived felt their lives were in danger and considered themselves lucky.

I would expect a camp with “extensive flood evacuation protocols” would have plans in place for both 1. everyone leaving the camp entirely (ex: cat 4 hurricane heading towards the area) and 2. getting all girls and staff to the highest point of the camp/over to the new sister camp in a flash flooding situation. NOT having either such plan accounted for is inexcusable and definitely not extensive flood planning. IMO. Moving 450 kids is not an insurmountable task and one that can be planned for, especially considering each small group of girls had a young adult counselor to help guide them.0

 

[no greed]

I would expect a camp with “extensive flood evacuation protocols” would have plans in place for both 1. everyone leaving the camp entirely (ex: cat 4 hurricane heading towards the area) and 2. getting all girls and staff to the highest point of the camp/over to the new sister camp in a flash flooding situation. NOT having either such plan accounted for is inexcusable and definitely not extensive flood planning. IMO. Moving 450 kids is not an insurmountable task and one that can be planned for, especially considering each small group of girls had a young adult counselor to help guide them.0

It is not insurmountable if you know it is necessary. This was not a hurricane event. It was the middle of the night. The amount of rain at the camps did not appear to be alarming. They were aware of the flash flood warnings. That is a frequent occurrence. That usually means stay away from the low water crossings. To the camps it meant to secure their canoes and other property. They had no idea how fast or high the River would rise. The only thing that could have saved them IMO is a siren warning system. I feel that would have saved lives if properly installed. I question that if there would have been enough time to have gotten all the campers to safety. Much like the wild fires in LA area last winter, this was another extreme weather event that is difficult to forecast and react to in a quickly changing emergency. I have nothing but sympathy for all that were effected by this tragedy. Remember these people were at the headwaters. They had no warning of the enormity of this event. Further down stream had a little more time and an idea what was coming. A major reason those counties were able have a better outcome IMO.

 

[Friday Fan]

It is not insurmountable if you know it is necessary. This was not a hurricane event. It was the middle of the night. The amount of rain at the camps did not appear to be alarming. They were aware of the flash flood warnings. That is a frequent occurrence. That usually means stay away from the low water crossings. To the camps it meant to secure their canoes and other property. They had no idea how fast or high the River would rise. The only thing that could have saved them IMO is a siren warning system. I feel that would have saved lives if properly installed. I question that if there would have been enough time to have gotten all the campers to safety. Much like the wild fires in LA area last winter, this was another extreme weather event that is difficult to forecast and react to in a quickly changing emergency. I have nothing but sympathy for all that were effected by this tragedy. Remember these people were at the headwaters. They had no warning of the enormity of this event. Further down stream had a little more time and an idea what was coming. A major reason those counties were able have a better outcome IMO.

I have no comment on "further down stream" where the two forks meet. Apparently the sheriff's office got a call at 1:30 am about a flooded road and the river rising. The RV campgrounds in Ingram were not informed. Hello, an RV is basically a car!

 

[Friday Fan]

One month later: Maps, graphics show the severity of the Hill Country floods

The devastating Texas Hill Country floods over the Fourth of July weekend have taken the lives of at least 108 people—including 71 adults and 37 children — in Kerr County.

www.ksat.com

OK...The Galveston Hurricane was storm serge on an island, which happened to be the largest city in Texas at the time. The hurricane was forecasted but

The 1921 and 1913 deaths were primarily due to increased populations with limited technology and infrastructure. Deaths went down once dams etc were constructed.

 

[AngTxGal]

One month later: Maps, graphics show the severity of the Hill Country floods

The devastating Texas Hill Country floods over the Fourth of July weekend have taken the lives of at least 108 people—including 71 adults and 37 children — in Kerr County.

www.ksat.com

OK...The Galveston Hurricane was storm serge on an island, which happened to be the largest city in Texas at the time. The hurricane was forecasted but

The 1921 and 1913 deaths were primarily due to increased populations with limited technology and infrastructure. Deaths went down once dams etc were constructed.

Great find, but I’m not sure forecasting or warning were in any helpful state in 1900 to prepare people for The Great Storm as they call it still in Galveston, that hurricane has no other name.
Isaac’s Storm is an insightful book if anyone wants to learn.
We forget, grow complacent, and nature reminds us who is boss.

IMO

 

[AngTxGal]

I have no comment on "further down stream" where the two forks meet. Apparently the sheriff's office got a call at 1:30 am about a flooded road and the river rising. The RV campgrounds in Ingram were not informed. Hello, an RV is basically a car!

And I heard a woman speak at the hearings, she said the water on her land rose 50 feet.
How does anyone prepare for a 20-50 foot rise of moving water?

Not possible, they should not have been home.

IMO

 

[Friday Fan]

And I heard a woman speak at the hearings, she said the water on her land rose 50 feet.
How does anyone prepare for a 20-50 foot rise of moving water?

Not possible, they should not have been home.

IMO

The NWS should have issued a Flash Flood Emergency for the entire county, around 3 am, instead of 5:30 am. I believe she lived in Ingram and would have heard the alert.

 

[Sundog]

dbm

 

[iamshadow21]

They're still looking for Jeff.

Kerr County searchers hope flood victim's dog provided a clue about his whereabouts

As the search continues for one of the last two missing flood victims in Kerr County, crews are intensifying their search in the area where his dog was found alive.

www.kens5.com

No indication they've found Cile, Michael, Ty, or Baldomero.

 

[Betty P]

I liked this woman's testimony. She said complacency and that was the first thing that came to my mind! It's been a total drought for 20 years, so people "forget".

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I also caught this post from KSAT retired meteorologist on July 3d.

Meteorologist Steve Browne

Rain bomb potential. Earlier this week I talked about similarities on this week's weather maps to what we saw in the great July flood of 2002. So far this week rain has been manageable in SA but...

www.facebook.com

Rain bomb potential. Earlier this week I talked about similarities on this week's weather maps to what we saw in the great July flood of 2002......The Del Rio weather balloon this morning shows a nearly saturated atmosphere from the ground up to 45,000 feet. That's like a nine mile deep, soaking wet sponge hanging overhead in the atmosphere.........Conventional computer models are notoriously poor at forecasting these events because the grid scale of most models is much too coarse to pick them up. That being said there is one high resolution model that is hinting at such an event developing tonight

_________________


Yes, Kerr is adjacent and upstream to Kendall.

I don't think any expert is needed, except that the North Fork and South Fork headwaters are very difficult to evacuate once it begins to flood, because there is a low water crossing every 1/4 mile. Although the roads appear to wind, it's actually the river that winds. There is no cell service either.
What strikes me between the riverfronts in the two counties is that Kerr has tons of riverfront properties on the north and south forks. They appear to be "high-end vacation properties".

I'm from Wisconsin, where lakefront property rules. The North and South Fork remind of northern Wisconsin. Vacation homes "on the water". The property values are also sky high.



View attachment 605584

Why didn’t they take the millions in federal funding and use it for its original purpose - installing a high water alarm system? In a public meeting, even local citizens objected to it.

There are no excuses, JMO. I hope everyone learns something from this tragedy.

 

[Friday Fan]

They're still looking for Jeff.

Kerr County searchers hope flood victim's dog provided a clue about his whereabouts

As the search continues for one of the last two missing flood victims in Kerr County, crews are intensifying their search in the area where his dog was found alive.

www.kens5.com

No indication they've found Cile, Michael, Ty, or Baldomero.

Since July 22, only two are considered to be officially missing from Kerr County. So, they would be Cile and Jeff Ramsey.

Two FEMA disaster outreach centers have closed; Kerr County commissioners will hold a town hall on Oct. 8

Texas Public Radio and The Texas Newsroom have the latest on the donation and volunteer opportunities, the stories of survivors, and so much more.

www.tpr.org

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I read that unofficially Baldomero was found safe.

There is an obituary for Ty.

Tianna Mabey Obituary - Grand Prairie, TX

Celebrate the life of Tianna Mabey, leave a kind word or memory and get funeral service information care of Bean-Massey-Burge Funeral Home Beltline Road.

www.dignitymemorial.com

A private service was held for Johnny Walker and his family today.

Memorial services announced for Bay Area couple and teen son killed in Texas flood

Events are planned in Marin and Texas to celebrate the lives of Mark, Sara and Johnny Walker.

www.eastbaytimes.com

 

[knla]

Texas Rangers release names of Kerr County flood victims

Names of Kerr County flood victims released

As the community continues to grieve the loss of life following the devastating floods on July 4.

news4sanantonio.com