TX TX-Hunt, Overnight flooding at Camp Mystic, all girls camp. Unknown number of missing. July 4, 2025
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I am in a very controversial minority, but I see no issue with camp cabins being in the floodplain*. The issue is obviously the lack of emergency preparedness and evacuation implementation. As soon as the first warning went out, those youngest girls should have been the first of all of them evacuated.
This camp failed these girls and families. You cannot play with other peoples' lives. All property owners and managers take on the legal responsibility to get their charges to safety. Even 'thousand year' floods. If it looks like rain, you
move. The property owners who are still alive who failed in this should be in jail right now IMO, and sued civilly for any money they might have left. Zero mercy.* the reason I feel this way is because most of the time, there is 0% chance of flooding. Zero! Not some, not a little, but literal zero. I can't stress that enough. And when there is a >0% chance of flooding, there is ample ample warning, and it should be heeded.
I'm a Central Texan and a river rat, and would not hesitate to camp on any of these rivers. I've also been in a Guadalupe River campground flood (1995?, River Rd, New Braunfels side of the dam), albeit obviously not like this, and lost all our possessions. We evacuated but I will admit, in our youth and stupidity, not soon enough. I take responsibility for that.
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Outsider opinion but I think it would have been fine to build there for day use. Put the sleeping quarters on higher ground that won't be in danger even if it's a 1% chance of flash flooding.
There was a lack of preparedness for sure but also it was night when it's much harder to see and properly judge how fast the water is rising.
At the very least, putting the cabins on higher ground means more room for error.
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I am in a very controversial minority, but I see no issue with camp cabins being in the floodplain*. The issue is obviously the lack of emergency preparedness and evacuation implementation. As soon as the first warning went out, those youngest girls should have been the first of all of them evacuated.
This camp failed these girls and families. You cannot play with other peoples' lives. All property owners and managers take on the legal responsibility to get their charges to safety. Even 'thousand year' floods. If it looks like rain, you
* the reason I feel this way is because most of the time, there is 0% chance of flooding. Zero! Not some, not a little, but literal zero. I can't stress that enough. And when there is a >0% chance of flooding, there is ample ample warning, and it should be heeded.
I'm a Central Texan and a river rat, and would not hesitate to camp on any of these rivers. I've also been in a Guadalupe River campground flood (1995?, River Rd, New Braunfels side of the dam), albeit obviously not like this, and lost all our possessions. We evacuated but I will admit, in our youth and stupidity, not soon enough. I take responsibility for that.
You don't see a problem with a lot of 8 year olds sleeping on a flood plain?
Where I live, you can't build a single thing that requires human occupation on a flood plain.
100 year floods do more than just sprinkle the land with rain. I would *never* let my children go sleep in any kind of flood plain, even a 100 year one. Of course, I've been through six floods while on an alleged 100 year flood plain each time (they've been reclassified and much engineering has been done since then). The 100 year designation means "rare," yes, but that is not good enough for me.
And if a camp for children failed to disclose this to me prominently and openly (and they asked every parent to sign on the dotted line that they realize their children could be a flood with minimal adult supervision), I'd not sign it.
Do you have small children? Would you let them sleep next to the Guadalupe in Flood Alley without you there?
Truly curious.
JMO
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50% of Louisiana is below sea level. There are millions of people in the US living in a flood plain. There are people all over the word living in natural disaster zones - tornadoes, hurricanes, earthquakes, forest fires, etc. imo
I’d rather see children exploring the outdoors than locked in a concrete jungle.
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I think there's a lot of room in between sleeping children in a floodplain - exploring the outdoors - not exploring the outdoors - locked in a concrete jungle. MOO.
This flood really was the perfect combination of risky human decisions made in the past vs a once in a lifetime disaster. IMO, a learning from this is that we need to do more to be prepared for extreme weather everywhere. I wonder what other countries use for their alert systems, what's standard elsewhere, what's cutting edge that we could learn from and implement here.
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1. His phone was likely wifi enabled, since they very likely don't have cell serviceAt a meeting of the Kerr county commission on Monday morning, the first since the disaster, officials revealed grim new details of the aftermath of the emergency. “We’ve heard accounts of trailer after trailer after trailer being swept into the river with families in them. [We] can’t find the trailers, we don’t know how many of them there are,” the county judge, Rob Kelly, said.
One trailer was found “completely covered in gravel” 27ft below the surface of the river, he said, adding that sonar crews were searching the river and local lakes. Two reservoir lakes attached to the river would be drained to aid the search, officials said.
ETA Prayers for all the victims from all the camps and campgrounds, including Dick Easton who gave his life trying to save the youngest children at Camp Mystic.
Texas camp leader waited over an hour after flood warning to evacuate
Camp Mystic leader, who died trying to save small children, waited over an hour after alert before starting evacuationwww.theguardian.com
2. NWS alerts are simultaneously posted on twitter, (so I was able to find the alerts on twitter)
3. This is the exact alert that he would have received:
Flash Flood Warning including Ingram TX and Hunt TX until 4:15 AM CDT
Move immediately to higher ground!
Avoid walking or driving through flood waters!
To make a better decision, Mr. Eastland would have needed more info about the amount of water upstream to Camp Mystic.
The closest NOAA gauge is in Hunt, which is downstream from Camp Mystic.
This would not have done him any good.
There are upstream real time gauges operated by the Guadalupe Blanco River Authority, but they are not in communication with the NWS or local emergency management. (I think the gauges are more for water management and the GBRA's main focus a whole other story, but GBRA is not emergency management)
However, he was a member of the board and he would know how to access those gauges, but would he in that type of situation? And I don't know how easy they are to access on a phone.
As a camp director, in an emergency situation, he would not be expected to watch the gauges. (It's just that he knew how) And there are other people in Kerr County, who know how to read them!! If I know how to read them, then the mayor, county judge, VFD, city manager anyone involved in emergency management would know how to read them!! But the mayor of Kerrville was asleep.
But, Kerrville City Manager, who was jogging at 3:30 am, told NBC News that he had turned off alerts! Kerrville city manager says he had weather alerts turned off
He didn't see any concerns, so I doubt if he would have bothered to check GBRA rain gauges! Or even NOAA radar or X or anything.
Back to the GBRA gauges:
The appropriate gauge is: South Fork Ranch @ Hwy 39
Here are the current gauges:
Experience
The odds are the gauge showed about an inch or two of rain at 1 am.
A 1 am, the radar looked like typical flash flood, several inches of rain, which means "water on the road in low areas". Stay put. He probably should have considered moving children out low lying cabins. (But that's just MOO) The area frequently gets this type of weather, so do many parts of the country.
Here is the 1 am radar.
Red is typical thunderstorm heavy.
Rain that falls in Bandera or Gillespie Counties does not fall in Guadalupe Basin.
Bandera = Medina River
Gillespie = Llano River.
.
At some point Camp Mystic lost electricity. At this point Mr. Eastland would lose access to NWS alerts, radar, gauges and the ability to call the Hunt Volunteer Fire Department.
By 3 am, the radar is ominous. There are crimson areas in the Guadalupe basin. Also the convection system has not moved much.
Around 1 am, Mr. Eastland, should have removed children the low lying cabins MOO. That's just common "river sense". Elevation maps show some of those cabins are the same elevation as a low water crossing!! Anything in the red lines is a good ole flash flood - no - no! Pick up your stuff and go. (Been there done that)
We once stayed at a house on the Guadalupe in Kerrville. They didn't have anything in the red zone! Nada. No rec area no nothing. In the 100 year flood plain, they had a fire pit, miniature golf, horse shoes, play area and pool. The house itself is in the 500 year flood plain. (Waiting to see how it did!..A drone showed the firepit was destroyed, but didn't zero in on the main structure.)
ArcGIS Web Application
OK...I'm going and on and on and probably don't make sense...
In the Floodway. Cabins with little children away from home lodged in the danger zone: the Floodway.
Perhaps the most important function of a natural floodplain is to convey floodwaters from upstream to downstream. The portion of the floodplain that conveys most of the floodwaters is called the floodway. Obstructions placed in the floodplain block the flow of water and can cause increased flood heights upstream from the obstruction and increased velocities of floodwaters adjacent to and downstream from the obstruction. Preserving the capacity of floodplains to convey floodwaters through the designation and preservation of a floodway has been an important concept in floodplain management from the very beginning. Preserving the floodway limits the impact of development from occurring in the floodplain that will increase flood heights and damages to upstream and downstream properties, and avoid allowing excess velocities resulting in stream stability and damages to downstream properties.
https://www.fema.gov/sites/default/files/documents/fema_floodway-analysis-and-mapping.pdf
Page 4 has a cut away showing a floodway and a floodway fringe, the 100 year flood plain, which is beyond and higher than the floodway.
And it’s not just any floodway and floodway fringe it is “Flash Flood Alley” a region unique in is geological and atmospheric convection and natural Stormwater conveyance system.
In the 100 year floodplain there’s a 1 percent chance of flooding in any given year and 26 percent chance of flooding at least once in a 30 year period.
Louisiana has a comprehensive statewide flood control program that sets it apart from this exceptional Hill Country landscape, the Guadalupe River and its tributaries, which do not have the extensive programs run by the state of Louisiana:
Statewide Flood Control
The 100 year flood maps designations don’t even take into account the intercepting stream at the worst spot by the floodway cabins.
FEMA focuses on river channels and is guidance but not the whole picture that a flood plain manager or hydraulic engineer could provide for a concerned business.
all imo
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Thank you for this, excellent article.
This is what I had guessed about the location of the younger campers:
In the logic of Mystic's design, the idea was to keep them close to the camp's office, dining hall and Rec Hall, a two-story building for campwide gatherings.
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Well, I don't think they should have sleeping cabins down there, especially since they had 750 girls.I am in a very controversial minority, but I see no issue with camp cabins being in the floodplain*. The issue is obviously the lack of emergency preparedness and evacuation implementation. As soon as the first warning went out, those youngest girls should have been the first of all of them evacuated.
This camp failed these girls and families. You cannot play with other peoples' lives. All property owners and managers take on the legal responsibility to get their charges to safety. Even 'thousand year' floods. If it looks like rain, you
* the reason I feel this way is because most of the time, there is 0% chance of flooding. Zero! Not some, not a little, but literal zero. I can't stress that enough. And when there is a >0% chance of flooding, there is ample ample warning, and it should be heeded.
I'm a Central Texan and a river rat, and would not hesitate to camp on any of these rivers. I've also been in a Guadalupe River campground flood (1995?, River Rd, New Braunfels side of the dam), albeit obviously not like this, and lost all our possessions. We evacuated but I will admit, in our youth and stupidity, not soon enough. I take responsibility for that.
Yes, a small family cabin in fair weather by the water is fine and done all the time. You should know the risks. And you should have an evacuation route. But in this case, there were too many campers.
And those family cabins and RVs did not do well on July 4th!
Original inhabitants of San Antonio lived like that. They lived in rock shelters and later huts. They had to live by the ephemeral river in order to survive. They ran when it flooded and then they rebuilt, but they didn't own much either. As the city grew, it became obvious this lifestyle was no longer sustainable.
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Our water drainage is much different. Louisiana is flat. Central Texas is hilly. We have "dry creeks" here and sometimes the Guadalupe River is dry. Our dry creeks only have water in them when it rains. If you buy property and you don't know you're on a dry creek, surprise, surprise. You will be living on a creek every time it rains. . Same with the rivers. Many times their banks are very low.
Our rivers are other state's creeks. People laugh at our rivers. "That's a river?"
The San Antonio River gets lots of jokes and yes the Guadalupe and San Antonio River are quite similar. Except one is urban, the other isn't. And the San Antonio River has water because it recycles treated sewage. (It also has sophisticated flood control, but that's a different story)
Our Hill Country rivers are suitable for inner tubing most of the time. Sometimes, they're so dry, they're not even suitable for inner tubing. This is deceptive because a hard rain will come and that lazy river will suddenly turn into a major raging river. It will go from 12 inches deep, 20 feet wide to 20 feet deep, 500 feet wide. You don't want to build in the floodway of raging river.
It's apples and oranges. There are plenty of ways to enjoy nature without residing in a riverbed! Enjoy the riverbeds, but just don't live in one.
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They weren't just in a floodplain, they were in a floodway. And I see now that Friday Fan beat me to it.I am in a very controversial minority, but I see no issue with camp cabins being in the floodplain*. The issue is obviously the lack of emergency preparedness and evacuation implementation. As soon as the first warning went out, those youngest girls should have been the first of all of them evacuated.
This camp failed these girls and families. You cannot play with other peoples' lives. All property owners and managers take on the legal responsibility to get their charges to safety. Even 'thousand year' floods. If it looks like rain, you
* the reason I feel this way is because most of the time, there is 0% chance of flooding. Zero! Not some, not a little, but literal zero. I can't stress that enough. And when there is a >0% chance of flooding, there is ample ample warning, and it should be heeded.
I'm a Central Texan and a river rat, and would not hesitate to camp on any of these rivers. I've also been in a Guadalupe River campground flood (1995?, River Rd, New Braunfels side of the dam), albeit obviously not like this, and lost all our possessions. We evacuated but I will admit, in our youth and stupidity, not soon enough. I take responsibility for that.
I agree with everything else.
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Thank you!
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It's difficult for me to believe the Eastlands really cared for their young charges when they appealed to FEMA that their cabin areas be removed from the flood maps.
"The camp requested that FEMA, the agency responsible for creating maps that help warn Americans where water might rise, remove more than a dozen buildings from what FEMA designates a floodplain at least twice in 2013, 2019 and 2020, the documents show. That last request in 2020 coincided with a major expansion during which the camp built a number of new structures but does not appear to have taken down any cabins from dangerous flood areas."
"The camp requested that FEMA, the agency responsible for creating maps that help warn Americans where water might rise, remove more than a dozen buildings from what FEMA designates a floodplain at least twice in 2013, 2019 and 2020, the documents show. That last request in 2020 coincided with a major expansion during which the camp built a number of new structures but does not appear to have taken down any cabins from dangerous flood areas."
My understanding from previous posts and MSM reports on this thread is that, ultimately, FEMA approved the expansion.
And Richard Eastman gave his life trying to save the youngest children during the flood. There is no doubt in my mind that he cared deeply about the lives of these children. He and his family are victims, too.
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I understand and agree. Yet wind back the clock and, had the Eastlands never appealed, FEMA would never have had cause to make any ruling, and therein lies the rub (and herein lie the lawsuits).
Sadly, it wouldn't have really changed anything but his insurance rates.
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