After a full run-through of his route, found here
video...I have changed my mind somewhat.
- I think the phone location signal has potential to mislead, because doesn't it rely on having battery? You'd be lucky to get charge after a full night out into the hours of 6am, even if you went out on full charge. I believe the phone probably run out of battery, especially as he was known to be using it as well. So would this stop the location? Also the Air-Tag would cut out if the phone ran out of battery because the bluetooth stops too. Whatssap messages are unopened too, again, could indicate Batt gone.
- From the full route re-run on Facebook - he is definitely lost and confused. The area he goes to by "integrated facilities Bristol Workplace" (
here) is a dead end, on the banks of the River Avon and indeed he turns back. He's lost.
- He then goes under the bridge complex at Brunel Lock Development. I saw a post earlier saying he'd be unlucky to fall to foul play in this area, I have to respectfully disagree, and this is an area I would 100% avoid. Looks like he continued from this point, but I can't rule out foul play at some point.
- No wonder the route was hard to follow on maps, he changes direction many times. Going back on himself multiple times.
- Makes it across the Plimsoll Swingbridge (going North) and down the slip road and opens whatssap messages at 3:38 and 3:39am. He can see Granby Hill at this point, looking right.
This view. That is Granby Hill, and I believe he has his sights set on that. Once again turns back on himself to go back up the bridge. Looks precarious here in traffic. And here was his last sighting (
here, going back up ).
So doing that run through, I am less sure about being in water now. Because I believe he tries to get over to the Granby Hill location, this explains going back up the bridge, because it looks a nightmare to get to from the above linked location. He must have made it because of the phone ping. And he's now not near to water. There's a lot of barriers everywhere too....he'd have to really climb over them to end up in Water (or thrown over I suppose).
There's just no more evidence he went back near water from Granby. Unless his phone went to Granby and he did not. But I do believe it was his aim to get there.