UK UK - Jack O'Sullivan, 22, left friends after night out, last seen Brunel Lock Road/Brunel Way, Bristol at 3.15am, 2 Mar 2024

[JellyBee]

Statistically, it's very unlikely that he will be found now as only around 1% of people who remain missing in the UK for a year or more do turn up eventually.

Sadly I agree. I wonder what the statistics and likelihood is of finding his body in the water after this length of time.

On a side note, regarding the data surge on his phone, could it be possible that the phone lost signal when he fell into the water shortly after his last sighting and then temporarily reconnected further up stream around an hour later as the phone started to fail, causing the location ping & the data surge? I’m thinking emails, comments, likes and notifications that would’ve suddenly come through in one go. This definitely makes the most sense to me, given the timeline.

 

[infohuntah]

One of the many reasons men fall into the water when intoxicated is because they need to urinate and for some reason, choose to do so over waterways. It could be as simple as him navigating the river fine and then needing to go for a wee all of a sudden and accidentally falling in. We also don’t know if Jack had taken any substances that were beginning to take effect as he made his journey home. I am not from the area but from reading the accounts of those who are, the direction he walked suggests some form of confusion

That's very much a cliche and massively, massively overstated. That cliche started off in comedies such as The Simpson which had gag scenes involving drunken mishaps of Withnail and I. I'd seriously take that with a huge lump of salt.

that said, it does happen occasionally but it's very, very rare. Much more rare than movies or cartoons or comedies make it seem.

Additionally, it's a typical lazy police response. You know the kinds of police forces who dont have time, money or resources, so they'll use this reasoning. For the record: it's so rare theres no statistics on it.

Let me say that again: it's so rare, theres no statistics. Not to say it cannot happen, because of course it can, but we'd really be scraping the barrel if we believed Jack suddenly wanted to pee and went to do so in public, near water, fell into the water, drowned, then was never seen again....it's possible but so, so far down on the list of things that couldn't happen i think we should explore other options.

 

[infohuntah]

I see that yesterday was the 2nd anniversary of Jack going missing. Statistically, it's very unlikely that he will be found now as only around 1% of people who remain missing in the UK for a year or more do turn up eventually.

I don't think we know much more now than we did after about 2 months, when the CCTV footage had been collected and reviewed, but it's worth bearing in mind that at least 70% of people who go missing in the UK do so for reasons related to their mental health. The idea that Jack went into the water in the area where he was seen wandering seems to remain many commentators' favourite hypothesis, but I really do think he would have been found by now if he had done so.

The water theory doesn't hold well for me either as I've explained on previous pages.

My main concern at the moment is with the private detectives the family have hired. Of course I've got no connection to anyone involved in the case, but from the outside looking in, what have they done? Im assuming they're getting paid for their work, but I've seen many cases where "private investigators" get paid for cases they know they can't solve and it has left me feeling extremely skeptical.

For example, when the person on a social media website said that he saw Jack getting into a car posted up online, they simply posted a message and asked the poster to contact them.

From their latest news release and telling people that posts will be deleted if theres no value, I hate to say but, I think they're a bunch of phonies who are acting like they can solve it but really, they're relying on social media.

All in all, this case was badly handled by police. It looks badly handled by these private investigators and honestly, I think 2 years on, I agree with the post above that we're looking at a 1% chance of finding Jack now because the time that has passed, combined with cctv issues etc. Ive tried to be positive throughout but it's looking bleak.

 

[rvlvr]

I’m just now catching up on this thread from start to finish so apologies if what I am about to say has already been discussed.

I still am sadly of the opinion that Jack fell into the water, given it is the most likely explanation. As for the phone pings, is it not possible that it being submerged in water could cause it to show incorrect location data? I once travelled across the country and my phone lost signal for an hour and showed me as being in the middle of the sea near to where I had last connected. My friend actually screenshot it and sent it to me, understandably horrified.

I just think the most logical conclusion, given the odd path he travelled and circling back on himself, is that he was extremely intoxicated and fell into the river and then his phone started playing up because it was full of water. It would also explain why it went off a few hours later. I wonder if the general direction of his phone location would align with the tidal movements of the area he would’ve fallen in.

I sincerely hope I’m wrong though as I want his poor family to find him.

I was in Perth yesterday where a guy called Declyn Cunningham went missing a few months ago, near to the River Tay. I was thinking of him, and Jack. Unfortunately I do think in cases like these the likeliest explanation is that sadly the missing person entered the water. Hopefully, as in the case of Aryan Sharma in Loughborough, their bodies are eventually found.

 

[rhino]

That's very much a cliche and massively, massively overstated. That cliche started off in comedies such as The Simpson which had gag scenes involving drunken mishaps of Withnail and I. I'd seriously take that with a huge lump of salt.

that said, it does happen occasionally but it's very, very rare. Much more rare than movies or cartoons or comedies make it seem.

Additionally, it's a typical lazy police response. You know the kinds of police forces who dont have time, money or resources, so they'll use this reasoning. For the record: it's so rare theres no statistics on it.

Let me say that again: it's so rare, theres no statistics. Not to say it cannot happen, because of course it can, but we'd really be scraping the barrel if we believed Jack suddenly wanted to pee and went to do so in public, near water, fell into the water, drowned, then was never seen again....it's possible but so, so far down on the list of things that couldn't happen i think we should explore other options.

Surely it’s near impossible, without video evidence, to collect statistics on exactly why people ended up in bodies of water and drowned?

There’s no denying the statistics of young men ending up drowning after nights out.

Men missing on a night out: Exploring the geography of fatal disappearances to inform search strategies

researchportal.port.ac.uk

And an updated one I hadn’t seen before:

https://mpih.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/missing-on-a-night-out-update_2019.pdf