Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #10

[MrsWatson]

So many options...all of them really sad.
MH history/diagnosis
Medical history -history of faints, seizuresz medication that might have made her more vulnerable to an accident near a river etc.
Some recent bad news/arguments/conflict. Eg I notice that they're talked about the last text she sent but not what/if any she received that morning.
That early on there was a reported sighting of 'something' in the water.

BBM

Could you provide a link to that? TIA.

 

[PlanningPerson]

Certainly the only other explanation I can think of, but it doesn't quite stack up. It's a bit elaborate for it to be just for personnel to reach the flood-weir.

It's not a bridge for getting equipment across, or livestock, it's a footbridge. At some point it was public, I think.

Also, if you look closely at the street view image, you can see that there appears to be a faded sign with a walking-man with a cross through it - the kind of sign to see where land owners want to indicate no public right of way. It's just beneath the private property sign.

Also following on re: public footpaths. It's extremely difficult to have a public right of way extinguished - not saying it never happens, but it's not easy and would have to be demonstrated that the right of way has been abandoned or other exceptional cirumstances. There is almost always a lot of local opposition to a proposal to extinguish a right of way.

These are the current public rights of way screencapped from the County Council's MARIO map viewer (link below)

mario

Welcome To MARIO - Maps & Related Information Online, Lancashire County Council's mapping and data website. The site contains a variety of mapping applications containing information regarding the current administrative area of Lancashire and include the main MARIO map viewer, Map Gallery and...

mario-lancashirecc.hub.arcgis.com

 

[ayrshireguy]

I have no idea. Something feels amiss there is nothing concrete just some comments I’ve read, interviews I’ve listened to - some comments are jarring and make me stop, long pauses before police have answered a question that kind of thing. There is just an air of ‘mystery’ not getting the full story kind of vibes. Ultimately NB and her family still have a right to a private life so we may never ever know if there is something being withheld.

Ultimately though I think the ‘perfect storm’, of sensationalised media headlines, huge public interest via social media in particular is adding an air of mystery - is the mystery actually there? A bit of ramble there really!

Yes, the pauses!

 

[cottonweaver]

Myth: Did LE ever dismiss or rule out that there might be criminal/ third party involvement? Or say that they had?

let's have a look at the facts. This took me 30 minutes this morning - there will be more links but here's a selection in sequence

29th Jan
First article that the Mail publishes on the case
'Chief Inspector Chris Barton, of Lancashire Police makes a public appeal ‘He added: 'We are following a number of lines of enquiry and are keeping an open mind at this stage about what has occurred.' Woman vanishes walking dog along river sparking major search operation

30th Jan
'Superintendent Sally Riley from Lancashire Constabulary said police were 'keeping a really open mind about what could have happened' Nicola Bulley's friends and family question police's drowning theory

1st Feb
'Police say they remain 'open minded' as to Ms Bulley's disappearance, but insist they do not believe at present that she was attacked.' https://www.dailymail.co.uk/galleries/article-11701791/Friends-fear-missing-UK-mom-45-slipped-riverbank.html

3rd Feb
Sally Riley interview, relays what they have done so far re river search. Refers to the working hypothesis ( in the river) but '...a genuinely open mind....'

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621540732157788160

3rd Feb
'But they said there are other lines of inquiry, including a 'very small area' leading out of the park which has no CCTV nearby and could be crucial to the development of the investigation. ..Detectives are also working behind the scenes to analyse CCTV and dashcam videos, and members of the public with footage which could be useful have been urged to come forward.'
Nicola Bulley's friends and family question police's drowning theory

7th Feb Sally making an appeal for dash cam & making it clear they’re dealing with tons of leads & tips & lines of inquiry - not just the water searches

https://twitter.com/x/status/1623005899265650712

I haven't done the three press conferences cause it would have taken me too long but I watched the last two, Riley said the same thing ( I didn't watch the first press conference)

equally, anybody can go thru the news reports over the fortnight and list all the detailed, investigative news which makes it obvious that they've not just been focussing on the river.

cc @Allabouttrial

 

[steelo]

So there is!
Visuals here, image data from google maps says 2023 too, so it looks to be recent satellite imagery.

View attachment 401871


View attachment 401872

Where is the evidence that the red vehicles shown in the two images are actually vans?

Also, if you use Google maps you can identify several red vehicles in and around the village. The vehicle in the top image, adjacent to the static caravans appears to me to be more like a regular car rather than a commercial van or motorhome.

 

[cottonweaver]

Yes I don't I understand why the witnesses felt the need to contact the papers. Do they expect police have the time to contact everyone who phones in with a tip and give them an update?

yes, from other cases I have followed there seems to be a misunderstanding that when you call 101 that an officer gets back to you. ( IME they seem to get back to people when a call has some investigative value but do not have time to call back and explain why it might not or that they may have had the same tip multiple times already)

 

[x44]

I think rather than ruling it out totally......
"the police have not discovered anything that points to third-party or criminal involvement.
See part way though this article for the extract

Nicola Bulley: friends condemn ‘vile’ theories as private underwater team joins search

Police warn about social media speculation over missing woman as new images released from the morning she disappeared

www.theguardian.com

 

[karakuchi]

So there is!
Visuals here, image data from google maps says 2023 too, so it looks to be recent satellite imagery.

View attachment 401871


View attachment 401872

Okay just checked the map data on Google Earth Pro (desktop)
Both satellite images are taken 22 July 2021

 

[cottonweaver]

Suddenly disposing of your red van, after the headlines, would raise police suspicions even more now, wouldn't it?

and that would potentially be a blow to any future prosecution.....

 

[jackal67]

The St Michaels on Wyre resident said the vehicle was the "sort of van you can live in".

IMO the witness found it suspicious because it looked like someone was living in it.

Hmm. Not sure she would be able to know that just by driving past. Loads of people have camper vans these days for holidays ,short breaks etc. Doesn't mean they live in them permanently.

 

[MrsWatson]

I don't understand why a tatty red van that someone may or may not live in is suspicious. There are thousands of people who have chosen Van Life and there is absolutely nothing nefarious about it at all.

 

[cottonweaver]

Suddenly the 'window' is publically expanded to c. 2 hours (last witness sighting in Top Field - PA arriving on the scene), which is EXACTLY what I was trying to explain the other day when my post got angry reactions and was deleted for being speculation. I am relieved that this has now - finally! - been acknowledged. It should, IMO, have been right from the outset, as it potentially opens up a whole lot of other possible avenues to be pursued.

Police identify critical two hours after Nicola Bulley disappearance

The crucial gap of time between when Ms Bulley vanished and when authorities were called could have the answers as police identify three key blindspots in the area.

www.express.co.uk

haven't read the express version but read a couple of other papers and the ' new window' seemed to come from the Tilly Ann Facebook posts rather than from LE ( Is it the same in the express?)

 

[Mycroft42]

So there is!
Visuals here, image data from google maps says 2023 too, so it looks to be recent satellite imagery.

View attachment 401871


View attachment 401872

There is also a red vehicle at St Michael's Airfield - a 3 min drive down Hall Lane.

Hard to tell if it's a van or not though.

 

[Just-a-random-girl]

I have traced video images of a specific "tatty" red van seen in Garstang in October 2022. Pictured in Liverpool. Not sure if same van in recent news reports re this NB case but it doesn't look that tatty to me and is driven by a man who is clearly visible and wearing a yellow high vis vest.

Personally, I don't see the connection of the van to this case. All people in vans look a bit dodgy to me, lol. Just pointing out that one of these sightings is entirely traceable. I'm sure the police have the same details and can follow up.

 

[MusicalMonkey]

I would guess that 2 weeks later not many of us expected that we would all still be none the wiser as to what happened.

Alien abduction? IMO (lol).

 

[karakuchi]

I have traced video images of a specific "tatty" red van seen in Garstang in October 2022. Pictured in Liverpool. Not sure if same van in recent news reports re this NB case but it doesn't look that tatty to me and is driven by a man who is clearly visible and wearing a yellow high vis vest.

Personally, I don't see the connection of the van to this case. All people in vans look a bit dodgy to me, lol. Just pointing out that one of these sightings is entirely traceable. I'm sure the police have the same details and can follow up.

I think the school of thought here is St Michaels on Wyre is not a large place, it's rural.
Two local witnesses found it odd enough to report.

 

[allyant]

I've followed the threads up to 7 so forgive me if thisbhas been covered but, one thing that occurred to me. I had a Fitbit Surge (years ago) that tracked my route, etc, with GPS. If they have her phone they will have the Fitbit serial number etc. Would Fitbit be able to track its route from known GPS "pings" without it having synced to the phone before battery ran out/became water damaged. My location data was always fairly accurate, even 4+ years ago. I'm not sure if all models now come with GPS or which models comes in pale blue and whether it would have GPS?

No - fitbit 'listens' for the GPS signals, the fitbit does not communicate with the GPS satellites.

 

[abovethestorm]

They might have been eliminated from the enquiry as you say, but they've not been added to the timeline. If someone did pass through at say 9:50am, didn't see anything odd, didn't see the dog tied up, didn't see anything odd at all - would they add this to the timeline or ignore it?

On the contrary, if someone did pass through around 9:50am and corroborated the witness statement by the lady who tied the dog up, that would be useful on the timeline, no? "Yes officer, I came through around 9:50am, saw the dog tied up, but thought nothing of it and continued on my way"... would be useful information. Would they include it on the timeline though?

My problem with it is that they are basing their whole time-frame on a single witness statement which doesnt appear to have been corroborated by anyone independent, only the daughter who received the call and the partner who came to the scene later. That's a red flag for me - I'd hope the police are trying to bottom that out, because without independent corroboration - the time-frame is more like 9:10-10:40.

All my opinion of course.

"The gent (who) has looked on the floor and two feet from the bench there’s a phone..." has also not been mentioned in the official timeline. Nor is there any mention that I can find of what HE did next. The original witness hurried off to an appointment, but what did this chap do at that point? It's all incredibly confusing IMO.

 

[martinwatts5]

They didn't put that info. out there. The person who saw the van did.

In my opinion the red van is a red herring. I would think that numerous vehicles have been reported as suspicious, it’s just that this one has been put out there by a member of the public and has given the press something different to write about on this story.

 

[hedgetog]

I feel the Police is being given an extremely hard time. I, for one, believe their hypothesis is correct. I just don’t understand why anyone would abduct or attack her on a well known dog walking route. Even if you had planned it having seen her route on strava, for example, why would you choose to do it then and when her dog is there - a dog who could bark and draw attention to you. If it was unplanned and random, it’s likely her body would be dumped quickly in panic. Also, are 45 year old women usually abducted? It seems odd. I will eat my socks if she’s not in the water. IMO

I agree, i also agree their hypothesis seems the most likely. They are in such a tricky position because they know the media and public want more info, but it doesn't mean it's appropriate to share and they of course rightly have to balance those things, and they can't just make stuff up to appease people. Add into the mix people putting 2 and 2 together to get 5, doing their own searches, posting their own outlandish theories (not on here I hasten to add) it makes it super tricky. I'm not claiming the police are perfect and never make mistakes, but JMO some (again not on here) are pushing their own agendas with their selective hearing to criticise them.