Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #12

[Davieson]

Verifying Device

Things seem to get sillier and sillier. IMO

 

[Firstsnow4]

Why would you not throw it in the River in this scenario? Once underwater it will no longer transmit a signal and although they are saveable you would have to get it out quite quickly and even if it was recovered it would still point to the missing person being in the River.

Leaving it seems an odd choice IMO.

I actually disagree with this - I think it’s clever to leave it because it points to an accident as opposed to foul play, which then leads the police astray. If you were an intelligent perp, you would want the scene to look as normal as possible. IMO.

 

[Bluesleuth66]

Paths and tracks lead down to a point midway between bench and weir that isn’t visible from riverpath. At this point on google maps there is a sandbank in the river – is it fordable here? By foot or quad bike maybe?

Yes, there’s a shallow point in the river between the bench and the weir which can be seen in Google maps - you can wade through that - ankle to knee deep that day at low tide according to locals, then there’s a small field to the gate and road at Hall Lane.

River isn't tidal at this point.

 

[ayrshireguy]

I actually disagree with this - I think it’s clever to leave it because it points to an accident as opposed to foul play, which then leads the police astray. If you were an intelligent perp, you would want the scene to look as normal as possible. IMO.

If this is the case and NB was taken by someone who has planned this through then she will probably never be found.

 

[Davieson]

I actually disagree with this - I think it’s clever to leave it because it points to an accident as opposed to foul play, which then leads the police astray. If you were an intelligent perp, you would want the scene to look as normal as possible. IMO.

The phone being in the river would also point to an accident.
Indeed, to date, nothing is pointing towards it being anything else.

 

[cottonweaver]

The silence from LE is absolutely deafening.

That'll be the drones....

'At the mouth of the estuary 10 miles downstream, two tactical operations officers on Saturday operated drones high above the Wyre, focusing on mudflats' Nicola Bulley search: Real detectives vie with amateur sleuths in Lancashire village

 

[Firstsnow4]

The phone being in the river would also point to an accident.
Indeed, to date, nothing is pointing towards it being anything else.

Yes I agree but by leaving it where it was indicates more to me that someone was clever to distract from the truth. If you were to throw it away, that points more to foul play by trying to hide evidence. But I do see your point because if NB had it in her hand it would have gone in the river with her (by accident) anyway. JMO.

 

[Mycroft42]

Yes, there’s a shallow point in the river between the bench and the weir which can be seen in Google maps - you can wade through that - ankle to knee deep that day at low tide according to locals, then there’s a small field to the gate and road at Hall Lane.

Can I ask how do you know this?

Also, the river here isn't affected by the tide - unless you just mean when the river is lower than usual?

 

[cottonweaver]

It's interesting though there is an assumption that NB would still in the area and what sort of radius 'local' might extend to and whether there are clues/evidence that maybe based upon, or purely hunch/suspicion?

Maybe as you say it relates to Paul Ansell's hunch( PA has been discussing it with PF?)

PF ...' has given police a map of places the body may be hidden and said these are likely to be 'ditches, hedgerows and wooded areas' – or anywhere it could be possible to park a car and ditch a body without being seen. ‘


Mother of Libby Squire sends moving message to Nicola Bulley's partner

 

[masekwm]

OK and why is that needed ?

It allows you to walk up to the car and open the door, some like mine, even prime the fuel pump as the door opens so there is no delay when the starter button is pressed.

 

[Springplease]

The caravan park have sheep and poultry , a reason for dogs not to running about loose.

 

[porkypies]

I'd like to ask a couple of questions of people to try and improve my understanding of human behaviour and to increase my knowledge of rivers and specifically of bodies in them and what happens to them in shortish timescales.
It in no way infers guilt on anyone, it is intended to question the hypothesis that this is an accident.
Question 1
If you found Willow and the phone that day with no owner in sight would you check the river
Question 2 is more difficult for me due to lack of knowledge
If you checked the river would you expect to see a body if it had entered the water in the last 13 minutes

If the answer to the second one is yes then I can't see the police hypothesis is right

To Q1. I would say that knowing what I would do is of no help in trying to figure out what really happened, because the finder was not me.
To Q.2 If I found the phone and dog, and checked the river, I would not expect to see a body, I would be checking. I would have no way of knowing, how long the dog and phone had been there, when or what occurred, nor whether a body would be visible or moved on with the current.

 

[cottonweaver]

If you're a NCA-accredited expert and a Home Office adviser I'd grit my teeth and say thanks.

Am sure they had a good old chortle at it
PF ‘ has given police a map of places the body may be hidden and said these are likely to be 'ditches, hedgerows and wooded areas' – or anywhere it could be possible to park a car and ditch a body without being seen. ‘


Mother of Libby Squire sends moving message to Nicola Bulley's partner

 

[Mycroft42]

Leaving it seems an odd choice IMO.

Unless it was supposed to be found.

 

[ayrshireguy]

Yes I agree but by leaving it where it was indicates more to me that someone was clever to distract from the truth. If you were to throw it away, that points more to foul play by trying to hide evidence. But I do see your point because if NB had it in her hand it would have gone in the river with her (by accident). JMO.

If you want to immediately draw people's attention to the river then you leave the phone near the bench, the harness on the bank, and the dog running around - which was not interesting in the river's edge but was interesting in the bench and the gate. Then you have someone come along with the caravan site owner and talk about NB 'faffing' about near the river's edge and that the dog might have been sniffing fishing bait.

It was 2 hours before any type of search began. There is no '10 minute window'. The whole thing stinks.

 

[Bibitty]

Paths and tracks lead down to a point midway between bench and weir that isn’t visible from riverpath. At this point on google maps there is a sandbank in the river – is it fordable here? By foot or quad bike maybe?

There is a great drone video (Daily Mail) here Nicola Bulley: Desperate search continues for mother in Lancashire

The stile (which is one of the locations Willow was found at) next to the bench is visible at the 0:38 mark. Then the drone flies partly over this area. The path and quad bike(?) tracks are visible. Just before the video leaves this area at 1:28 there is an area visible on the opposite bank which could lead up to a path or track.

I love to see some detail of this area. Is it possible to then head up to the church and Hall Lane, or even the other direction towards the 'Abandoned House' and then back up to Hall Lane and where the rad van was supposedly parked?

Is it possible to walk downstream from the bench along the lower track on the waters edge past the weir and then UNDER the road bridge out the otherside keeping on the river bank?

 

[JeremyBentham]

From what we are told LE are working on the theory that she fell in the river, so the placement of the phone, if done by an abductor, worked. I think the main thing in this case though is the severe lack of evidence that points strongly enough to any scenario. Just the lack of evidence of foul play, points more towards an accident.

It still could be a very clever play, but mostly likely that she fell in.

It makes more sense to me that she did fall in, as to pull off a disappearing act or to have been abducted and to have left no trace and been lucky enough to have not have been seen by anyone when leaving the are seems improbable. But not impossible of course. The likelihood of then falling in the river - to go near enough to the edge on a cold day, knowing the area and the dangers well, again seems strange. What was so important to go near enough to the edge. Maybe the dog, maybe a medical condition. An accident seems more probable, but then the speed of the response and the searches makes me question it otherwise.

 

[Cluella DeVille]

It has been generally assumed that the phone was left, backing the theory that NB fell into the water. However, in the absence of any body being found in the river, my alternative theory is that if NB was abducted, the phone was left BECAUSE the abductor was foresencially aware I.e. knew movements could be tracked via the phone...no point in throwing it in the bushes as would give clues to exit path taken. Just my thoughts...

One thing that went through my mind at the start of all this...if NB was approached/threatened and taken...she may have dropped her phone there. Left as a clue so to speak that she had actually been there, because in her mind she didn't know where Willow might run off to without her around. It's a minor point and not helpful in finding her, but I've never noticed this expressed elsewhere

 

[cottonweaver]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1625506418311790594

 

[porkypies]

If I said to you that I’d gone to LancsPolice at the weekend and given them a map of the local area pointing out to them ditches, hedgerows and wooded areas which could be potential body deposition spots - what would you say to me?

Be honest!

I would ask them what they said to you.