Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #15

[Cranky]

I think there are some mandatory convictions e.g. fraud, offences including dishonesty that are an instant no. So would long custodial sentences.

I doubt some domestic scuffle (I personally think this was MH related and would be dropped even if hypothetically some sort of assault occured) would be such a huge insurmountable problem. You're not going to get more than a caution.

I actually spoke to my partner who is a mortgage broker about this.

JMO

I'd have thought the same but for someone having problems sleeping and brain fog it could maybe be perceived as being a bigger issue? We don't know the outcome of the 10th of January incident yet - neither do LE either apparently as it is still being investigated (Source Nicola Bulley home incident before she vanished still being probed ) so it could be something else to add to stress levels?

 

[infinit]

I'd have thought the same but for someone having problems sleeping and brain fog it could maybe be perceived as being a bigger issue? We don't know the outcome of the 10th of January incident yet - neither do LE either apparently as it is still being investigated (Source Nicola Bulley home incident before she vanished still being probed ) so it could be something else to add to stress levels?

Yeah I agree, it's the last thing she really needed by the sounds of it.

 

[EyeSpyU]

Imoo moo you have to wonder why someone would say they saw people that the police have been unable to verify were genuinely there?

No one else mentioned the fisherman or the van did they? The van would've been ran through on ANPR for the colour/model type and any reg's in the area matching the V5 details in the area wouldve been identified already or any movements of those raising concern would've been mapped.

I mean at least you'd bloody hope.

Otherwise at least the van could've been on dashcam footage?? But why make up the lads fishing and covering their faces?

Sadly, there are people around who give false information for attention. It happens all the time.

Then there’s those who convince themselves they saw someone acting strangely and hope to be a “hero” by discovering the perpetrator.

Similar to those trolls on other sites where they give their opinions on what happened, create a reconstruction vIdeo of the imagines scene, add dramatic background music for effect, and want to appear like Poirot or Agatha Christie. They’re basically bored at home and treat this kind of event like a full time job.

I’ve seen long essays that they’ve obviously taken great pains over and have pre-written, setting out all their thoughts and reasons why their conclusion is the right one despite having no inside knowledge, and all the experienced detectives working on the case who do have the intel, experience and knowledge are all wrong.

 

[infinit]

I think alcoholic is a poor word personally, though I find it an annoying habit to break. You have alcohol misuse which could be drinking too much, binge drinking etc and alcohol use disorder which is more serious where you get dependency, withdrawal symptoms etc. Who knows where Nicola falls, they left it intentionally vague I expect.

JMO

 

[Bogbacal2]

Sharing my thoughts…There is something about this case that has affected me differently that other cases. I think it stems from a combination of things-not knowing if NB being missing is due to an accident, foul play or other….Maybe it is because I understand the emotional roller coaster she was on and it is not a fun ride. Maybe I am angry that so many people interfered on SM for their pleasure disregarding the fact that this is someone’s mother, wife, sister, daughter…
In the chance that NB is out there, I wish she could read the threads and understand it is never too late and what she has actually done is allowed people to put aside their vulnerabilities and open up and share some of their most inner thoughts about their struggles, addictions and mental health issues….

 

[geelongcate]

I have to say, it's hard to see how someone selling a story could've had any greater impact than the official police confirmation has had - front page splashes in many newspapers, headlining news bulletins etc. I'm sure any gossipy story about her drinking would've been widely condemned, too, especially if it related to the past rather than recent history. Whereas the official police statement has rather sanctioned in-depth discussion not only about her drinking but about the poor woman's hormone levels!

With hindsight, I do wonder whether it might have been better for the police to have maintained their silence on this and to have dealt with any potential story if and when it happened (which it may not have at all). Not least because if there's any slim chance Nicola is still alive, all this will be absolutely mortifying for her!

 

[annpats]

I sometimes wonder why NB didn't confide in her sister or Mum & Dad more. They seem reasonably close from the photos on Facebook (although who really knows). If she were having problems at home, could she not have gone to live with them temporarily?

I also find it a bit strange that NB's sister has moved into NB's house almost straight away "to look after the children" (although PA himself claims he is doing most of that) and the kids are at school for 6 hours a day.

That just seemed odd. To me anyway.

Yes, do help look after the kids, but to move in full-time 24/7...?!?

 

[Loobyloo]

But why make up the lads fishing and covering their faces?

<snipped for focus>
Perhaps the informant genuinely did spot a couple of fishermen (covering their faces against the cold), but made a mistake about what day that was.

 

[ImmyR]

I sometimes wonder why NB didn't confide in her sister or Mum & Dad more. They seem reasonably close from the photos on Facebook (although who really knows). If she were having problems at home, could she not have gone to live with them temporarily?

I also find it a bit strange that NB's sister has moved into NB's house almost straight away "to look after the children" (although PA himself claims he is doing most of that) and the kids are at school for 6 hours a day.

That just seemed odd. To me anyway.

Yes, do help look after the kids, but to move in full-time 24/7...?!?

Doesn’t seem odd to me. She’s offering emotional support at an incredibly difficult time for them all.

 

[Rusty Braincells]

Respectfully, the statement by the police about significant issues with alcohol is not describing one that has a couple of glasses of wine.

Once an alcoholic, always an alcoholic. One only manages the disease-- one day at a time. MOO

A statement from the force later on Wednesday said: “Sadly, it is clear from speaking to Paul and the family that Nicola had in the past suffered with some significant issues with alcohol which were brought on by her ongoing struggles with the menopause and that these struggles had resurfaced over recent months.

MPs slam ‘deeply troubling’ police statement on Nicola Bulley

MPs have criticised Lancashire Police's “deeply troubling" decision to release information about missing Nicola Bulley's private life to the public. Yvette Cooper said she would be contacting Lancashire Police about the reasons for putting out the deeply personal statement. The Shadow Home...

sports.yahoo.com

Whilst I personally believe temporary alcohol problems are a feature of a lot of people's lives and do in many cases resolve largely on their own and not recur (albeit not in my own case!), I think quite a lot of people are thinking: “well someone might say I drank too much if I went missing, god any of us could get labelled alcoholics!” because of a few cheeky G and Ts on the weekend…

I agree with you that I suspect that’s not what we are talking about if it’s considered so worthy of mention.

If someone said NB had an alcohol problem I’m hoping that was sounded out and tested: was it causing issues at work & personally, how many drinks are we talking, etc, the details.

 

[Rusty Braincells]

View attachment 403364

'

' This might not be such a circus if Lancashire Police didn't demonise the media'​

Huh? Seriously?

New link Nicola Bulley remains missing as troubles laid bare by bungling police

The media is pivoting to “police facing criticism for revealing information about Nicola,” information they were happy to republish themselves and which some may even have been angling to leak, which is why the police got ahead of it… The central premise of this piece of “journalism” is particularly self-serving nonsense.

I don’t have any particular love for the police but I don’t personally see what they’ve “bungled” except perhaps 1. the divers investigating the river should have been given information about NB’s vulnerabilities earlier on; and 2. I did myself find the several days in a row, national release of a new photo of a witness who would likely be readily identified within a few minutes by showing his/her picture locally, to be overkill (but perhaps a desire to satisfy public appetite for more news, which goes back to the press again).

This is a difficult case because, IMO, it is a missing person who has likely drowned but the body has not been found, and it’s caught the public’s attention for some reason (more likely due to press coverage than anything the police did or didn’t do). When Naya Rivera went missing, the theories became outlandish about whether she’d been kidnapped by a guy on a jet ski or was in one of the huts around the lake with amnesia etc. Of course, poor NR was always in the water and that’s where I think NB is too, but until she’s found then we all do wonder.

 

[markoid]

The media is pivoting to “police facing criticism for revealing information about Nicola,” information they were happy to republish themselves and which some may even have been angling to leak, which is why the police got ahead of it… The central premise of this piece of “journalism” is particularly self-serving nonsense.

I don’t have any particular love for the police but I don’t personally see what they’ve “bungled” except perhaps 1. the divers investigating the river should have been given information about NB’s vulnerabilities earlier on; and 2. I did myself find the several days in a row, national release of a new photo of a witness who would likely be readily identified within a few minutes by showing his/her picture locally, to be overkill (but perhaps a desire to satisfy public appetite for more news, which goes back to the press again).

This is a difficult case because, IMO, it is a missing person who has likely drowned but the body has not been found, and it’s caught the public’s attention for some reason (more likely due to press coverage than anything the police did or didn’t do). When Naya Rivera went missing, the theories became outlandish about whether she’d been kidnapped by a guy on a jet ski or was in one of the huts around the lake with amnesia etc. Of course, poor NR was always in the water and that’s where I think NB is too, but until she’s found then we all do wonder.

Great post.

 

[onthecounter]

Your posts on this have been very thought provoking and interesting and it sounds like you have personal experience of this and I am sorry to hear that. What I would say is that suicide by drowning in the UK at least is not common at all (<5% of cases in males or females)... reference here from Office of National Statistics.

Suicides in the UK - Office for National Statistics

Registered deaths in the UK from suicide analysed by sex, age, area of usual residence of the deceased and suicide method.

www.ons.gov.uk

In addition, the police say she made a call to book a play date for her children shortly before her disappearance. This does not to me seem to be the action of someone who was in a suicidal frame of mind.

The Occam's razor point is well made which is all about the simplest, most parsimonious explanation being the most likely. I agree that Occam's razor would suggest she ended up in the water (rather than a convoluted explanation of an abduction, being forced to walk down a path into a vehicle, leaving the dog and phone behind and not being seen at any point by a dashcam or similar).
However, given that the extensive search of the river and that at this point is is unlikely she is currently in the water near the bench area, wouldn't Occam's razor suggest that she exited the water somewhere locally rather than the much less likely event of being swept away, over a weir, round the multiple river bends in a relatively slow moving river ?

When she first went missing, Occam's razor suggested she ended up in the water and would be found in the immediate area. However, following the search that is now demonstrably much less likely to be the case so the probability of her falling in AND remaining in the water in that area is much less.

I really think there is a good chance she got out on the South side of the river and may have walked away from the river edge in a hypothermic state for some distance which is why she has not yet been found. If she had exited on the North river bank in the local area she would probably have been able to summon help at the caravan site.

It is also plausible that she might have attempted to walk home from that side in a hypothermic state given that at that point she had lost her phone and car keys probably would not have worked or might have been lost in the water.

Interesting theory. For some reason I’ve never considered NB getting out the other side. Would this be possible? If so, where would she go?

 

[curiousbeaver]

Just a short post which might be relevant to some of the items mentioned - the play date, very organised morning etc…

Of the 3 tragic suicides I have known, in each case (despite serious mental health issues and/or a previous attempt in one case), the couple of days leading up to the suicide were a little better. Each partner reported (which was also recorded at the inquests) that in the immediate run up to the event, they thought things were improving and their wife/husband seemed to be having a good spell. Apparently it is not unusual for people to feel better once they have made up their mind to take action.

It is terribly sad that anyone could think their absence would make life better for those around them

 

[ginnyw]

( Or what about suddenly feeling compelled towards water - Am thinking of what the WS member PS8800 just described.)

walking in calmly, to a greater depth would also possibly also leave no signs. Also recollecting that famous writer Virginia Woolf just walked into the river. ( Although in other ways her case was different, stones in pockets, suicide note)

Anyway, before I get too maudlin - plus we can't be sure there is a suicide attempt in this case - am still baffled about why LE say they are still investigating the Jan 10th incident as late as Feb 15th. That seems so strange to me. Why?

Woolf wrote suicide notes and deliberately climbed into a very deep, tidal Ouse, fast-moving, with the aim of being swept out to sea. Sadly she got caught up in a bridge and was found after three weeks.

 

[mrjitty]

I remain sceptical that media coverage would have played much different with some more carefully chosen words.

99% of the people running around spouting crazy don't read the police statements or quality media coverage anyway.

 

[markoid]

Your posts on this have been very thought provoking and interesting and it sounds like you have personal experience of this and I am sorry to hear that. What I would say is that suicide by drowning in the UK at least is not common at all (<5% of cases in males or females)... reference here from Office of National Statistics.

Suicides in the UK - Office for National Statistics

Registered deaths in the UK from suicide analysed by sex, age, area of usual residence of the deceased and suicide method.

www.ons.gov.uk

In addition, the police say she made a call to book a play date for her children shortly before her disappearance. This does not to me seem to be the action of someone who was in a suicidal frame of mind.

The Occam's razor point is well made which is all about the simplest, most parsimonious explanation being the most likely. I agree that Occam's razor would suggest she ended up in the water (rather than a convoluted explanation of an abduction, being forced to walk down a path into a vehicle, leaving the dog and phone behind and not being seen at any point by a dashcam or similar).
However, given that the extensive search of the river and that at this point is is unlikely she is currently in the water near the bench area, wouldn't Occam's razor suggest that she exited the water somewhere locally rather than the much less likely event of being swept away, over a weir, round the multiple river bends in a relatively slow moving river ?

When she first went missing, Occam's razor suggested she ended up in the water and would be found in the immediate area. However, following the search that is now demonstrably much less likely to be the case so the probability of her falling in AND remaining in the water in that area is much less.

I really think there is a good chance she got out on the South side of the river and may have walked away from the river edge in a hypothermic state for some distance which is why she has not yet been found. If she had exited on the North river bank in the local area she would probably have been able to summon help at the caravan site.

It is also plausible that she might have attempted to walk home from that side in a hypothermic state given that at that point she had lost her phone and car keys probably would not have worked or might have been lost in the water.

There have been countless cases posted on this forum alone of bodies being found months after a drowning and sometimes close to where the person went in. If the experts in their respective fields are searching near the sea then they are working on a precis that a body could reach the sea from the bench location.

 

[cottonweaver]

Someone had expressed in a post that they were struggling to understand the Jan 10 incident and it reminded me of a woman I know who has problems with alcohol. She has been breathalysed previously when found to be driving and over the limit and this has led to police meeting with her to determine whether her licence should be revoked bearing in mind it would take away her ability to get to her place of work. When it said no-one had been arrested for the 10th Jan incident I wondered could it have been something like this.

it was me
I was struggling to understand why LE are still investigating it ( 27th - 15th) . I am not suggesting they're incompetent.
( I'd just re-watched the Channel 5 interviews & appeals from F & F to see if there was any hint of past 'struggles')

A couple of members gave some simple suggestions so maybe it is a nothing burger & it doesn't indicate anything significant.
However as you suggest maybe, at the time, there could have been other ramifications.

 

[cottonweaver]

I do wonder ifits the family that have wanted this as they’ve been keen to clarify other media issues.

I mean there is the potential that with less focus on third parties and abductions or DV people may stop taking law into own hands or traipsing around the village or threatening family and friends etc

We'll be able to tell, hopefully, from local reporting ( and lack of arrests & lack of dispersal orders) whether it dies down now and people stop trawling through people's gardens in the dark, shouting and jostling them while simultaneously filming them for tiktok etc

 

[cottonweaver]

I still don't understand how the family / police making these statements has prevented or deterred anyone from selling stories. Can anyone who understands the press / media explain please? Surely anyone with a salacious tale is still legit able to sell it to a tabloid if they have some credible story to sell?

imo it discourages the buyer/ publisher
( even if a seller had already been paid & interview was done, publisher might hold that story back now. Publishing it might expose hypocrisy and attract condemnation. )

Also, as per normal convention, a reporter may have contacted F & F for comment on the info they have dug-up, already received from another source, which is why the family say that they know that risk of people selling stories is real.