Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #15

[ginnyw]

If NB has walked away, it would have had to have been planned in advance, so you would think there would be texts, calls, emails to someone to make arrangements for the day, as I highly doubt she just walked off on her own and got on a bus/taxi. So how much weight does that theory hold do we think, as it would have needed to have been someone she trusted.

Also she would surely need access to money etc to start a new life, plus she's one of the most recognisable faces in the country now. I can't buy the walking away theory myself, and then there's Willow left running about. That to me is one of the biggest indicators that NB didn't plan either take her own life or start a new one. MOO.

 

[Beginnersleuth]

They're not succumbing to media pressure IMO, not exactly.
It'll be to do with their own internal policy and procedure, it looks like they're doing damage limitation.

IMO - scenario - A Jan 10 incident police officer or someone connected to them was possibly the source (unwittingly or otherwise) of the press story about to be released.
Hence the Jan 10 incident being referred to IOPC, and the disclosure U-turn.
Both detracting from the source/leak but more importantly, the entire matter, including the potential source and leak being 'enclosed' within an IOPC investigation, which is largely internally controlled.

They're doing damage limitation. They had 2 difficult options, they chose the lesser of two evils.

Home Secretary wasn't buying the original reasons for the disclosure, either.
JMO

If you think about a police car or ambulance turning up in your road, everyone knows about it. And I don’t live in a little village like Inskip.
Sorry I know FB is basically hearsay but seems to be reasonably common knowledge and that seems pretty obvious if you imagine it in your own life. JMO

 

[Haveyoufedthecat]

Regarding ‘family’ in this instance, am I right in thinking that as NB and PA are not married, it is her parents who are her legal Next of Kin (due to her children being under 18 years of age)? Very possibly LE would have to follow this NoK protocol when discussing NB with ‘family’ and may be dealing more with her parents directly, and PA subsequently. JMO

I've been wondering that because I'm pretty sure on a legal basis, not married, children are minors etc I would presume that her parents are next of kin. But quite happy to be corrected.

 

[geelongcate]

The welfare check is really significant information.

Perimenopausal and alcohol is not that uncommon. welfare check couple of weeks before going missing is massive

You know what, I think you're exactly right. The welfare check is a much more likely subject for a story than private medical issues which the press may well not have been legally allowed to publish anyway.

And that opens a whole other can of worms, because it would mean NB's private health information was released not because it was about to be made public, but in order to protect her partner from further speculation. And of course he absolutely should be protected from speculation, but the question is whether such an extreme invasion of NB's privacy was a proportionate way to do it. Can't help thinking a simple statement at the outset of the investigation that NB was vulnerable due to mental health issues, followed by a firm refusal to elaborate further out of respect for her and the family, could have avoided all of this (I bet Lancs Police are thinking the same thing now!).

 

[Penny68]

Regarding ‘family’ in this instance, am I right in thinking that as NB and PA are not married, it is her parents who are her legal Next of Kin (due to her children being under 18 years of age)? Very possibly LE would have to follow this NoK protocol when discussing NB with ‘family’ and may be dealing more with her parents directly, and PA subsequently. JMO

I wonder as NB and PA have been in a relationship for 12 years then maybe NB passed the Next of Kin onto PA. Also he is the father of their two daughters.

 

[MsBetsy]

I can't remember now Betsy - I'd have to go check it again

But iirc we all knew on WS that something about the case was HIGH risk ( even if they never used those words) just from the police response that it was being treated as such ( full scale starts c Jan 30th with helicopters, drones, dogs, divers, land searches etc etc, first divers and immediate land search started on 27th)

This is why WS members had been posting the classification tables for a couple of weeks.

Missing persons | College of Policing

This page is from APP, the official source of professional practice for policing.

www.college.police.uk

View attachment 403449

Yes, it's pretty clear that this was a high risk missing persons case from the start, and not just suddenly revealed yesterday for the first time.

 

[steelo]

Could NB have decided enough was enough, arranged a pick-up further down the river, past the weir and has then transferred onto a boat and been taken across to Ireland? Is that even plausible? Starting a new life, new identity? I admit it seems an extremely far-fetched theory!

 

[cottonweaver]

Yes, it's pretty clear that this was a high risk missing persons case from the start, and not just suddenly revealed yesterday for the first time.

I can only think that neither LP nor the family wanted any media speculation on why she might be high risk. ( Altho IDK how frequently any LE releases to public that 'X person is high -risk' )
(The former coppers on TV ? They should have been able to work it out from the resources & speed at which they were deployed)

eta
with the benefit of hindsight & with the luxury of not being in their shoes, I guess withholding fact that she was struggling might have been a mistake. ( Coulda just said - 'had recently faced some challenges' or tamped down the mystery with ' had had depression' but not sure the family would have agreed to it, hence it being missing from the C5 show/F & F campaigns )

 

[Beginnersleuth]

You know what, I think you're exactly right. The welfare check is a much more likely subject for a story than private medical issues which the press may well not have been legally allowed to publish anyway.

And that opens a whole other can of worms, because it would mean NB's private health information was released not because it was about to be made public, but in order to protect her partner from further speculation. And of course he absolutely should be protected from speculation, but the question is whether such an extreme invasion of NB's privacy was a proportionate way to do it. Can't help thinking a simple statement at the outset of the investigation that NB was vulnerable due to mental health issues, followed by a firm refusal to elaborate further out of respect for her and the family, could have avoided all of this (I bet Lancs Police are thinking the same thing now!).

This is what it feels like to me and I have no idea why they would take this kind of action to protect him specifically.
Im sure they do have their reasons and I’m not criticising.
They must have known what they’ve done would cause these massive waves, esp when the SIO is of a similar age to NB, me and most of my friends & she’s a woman with a busy career as well. I don’t think they could in any way not be aware of what they’ve done.
But I cannot fathom why????

 

[Normanly]

This is my thinking. NB would have had a tiny window of opportunity, but IF she could have left by the main path, there can't have been any witnesses on the path when she did it. It's a fairly long path so that's a big risk to take if you don't want to be seen. If the gentleman walked along the path from Blackpool Ln, IMO he almost certainly would have crossed paths with NB given the small timeframe involved.

I think she could have gone over the stile and down by the river and only rejoined the river path nearer the bridge.

Someone did say in an earlier thread that you can actually go under the bridge on the weir path but I don't know if this is correct

 

[DazN]

Also she would surely need access to money etc to start a new life, plus she's one of the most recognisable faces in the country now. I can't buy the walking away theory myself, and then there's Willow left running about. That to me is one of the biggest indicators that NB didn't plan either take her own life or start a new one. MOO.

I agree actually. JMO

 

[Beginnersleuth]

I wonder as NB and PA have been in a relationship for 12 years then maybe NB passed the Next of Kin onto PA. Also he is the father of their two daughters.

Next of kin can be whoever you want.
Mine was my ex (unmarried) and still is in some circumstances, in others my sister is.

 

[pineapple23]

I can't buy the walking away theory myself, and then there's Willow left running about. That to me is one of the biggest indicators that NB didn't plan either take her own life or start a new one. MOO.

I don't think she walked away either though I suppose leaving the dog and the phone by the river could be a strategy to make people think she was in the river.

 

[Normanly]

I don't think she walked away either though I suppose leaving the dog and the phone by the river could be a strategy to make people think she was in the river.

Leaving the phone and dog would buy her time to get away from the area as everyone would be focused on the river IMO

It could still of course just be a tragic river accident

 

[calmdownjudy]

I am angry for NB. None of her private information should have been made public. I'm not sure what kind of picture the police are trying to paint, but I don't like it at all.

IMO, she didn't hurt herself and she did not run away from her old life. She was making plans for the future (the playdate), and still involved in her daily routine (dropping the kids off at school, walking her dog, emailing her boss about a client, logging into a meeting). Furthermore, why would she bring her dog if she was planning either of those things? That doesn't make sense. Wouldn't she leave the dog at home? If she loved her dog (and it seems like she did), she wouldn't put her dog in a position where he/she could get hurt or lost. MOO.

 

[DazN]

I don't think she walked away either though I suppose leaving the dog and the phone by the river could be a strategy to make people think she was in the river.

To me it still suggests a third party. Leaving a dog alone is akin to leaving a child. IMO

 

[geelongcate]

This is what it feels like to me and I have no idea why they would take this kind of action to protect him specifically.
Im sure they do have their reasons and I’m not criticising.
They must have known what they’ve done would cause these massive waves, esp when the SIO is of a similar age to NB, me and most of my friends & she’s a woman with a busy career as well. I don’t think they could in any way not be aware of what they’ve done.
But I cannot fathom why????

What baffles me is why, if the possible story concerned the welfare check (which to me now seems near certain for the reasons you've outlined, as well as because the person with the information seems to have confirmed it as well) the police couldn't simply have dealt with it by saying "NB had some mental health issues which we haven't mentioned before out of respect for her family, and that was the reason for the welfare check". Why the need to go into such detail about her health issues? Even if that information was about to go public (unlikely, both because few people would have known about it and for legal reasons) it seems ethically a bit dubious for the police to confirm it; if it wasn't, I see no justification for publishing it at all.

 

[jigzy]

The LE needn’t have revealed the bit about alcohol or menopause at all. If they felt they had to release something to protect PA, and possibly attending LE officers, from speculation if the 10th January thing was about to be reported on, then they could have simply said they considered her vulnerable due to her long term personal health issues. That would have been sufficient to express her vulnerability and that she is the victim here, right now. The alcohol and menopause info seems like it is out there to paint a picture of NB in advance of something coming out about the handling by LE.
If the 10th January incident had a bearing on NB not wanting to be alive any more, there’s a whole lot more to come. Being hospitalised on the 10th could potentially have saved her. All Jmo.

 

[Cuko]

The welfare check is really significant information.

Perimenopausal and alcohol is not that uncommon. welfare check couple of weeks before going missing is massive

I agree.The welfare check is hugely relevant. As for the alcohol/menopause info, there are probably millions of us women out there who’ve appreciated a stiff drink to dull symptoms/relax ourselves during menopause.

 

[Beginnersleuth]

The LE needn’t have revealed the bit about alcohol or menopause at all. If they felt they had to release something to protect PA, and possibly attending LE officers, from speculation if the 10th January thing was about to be reported on, then they could have simply said they considered her vulnerable due to her long term personal health issues. That would have been sufficient to express her vulnerability and that she is the victim here, right now. The alcohol and menopause info seems like it is out there to paint a picture of NB in advance of something coming out about the handling by LE.
If the 10th January incident had a bearing on NB not wanting to be alive any more, there’s a whole lot more to come. Being hospitalised on the 10th could potentially have saved her. All Jmo.

Or vulnerable adult/safeguarding procedures.