Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #16

[Lilbitcurious]

Did you try google maps?

Yeah that’s why I said some are only available with postcode as name is spelled wrong on a couple. Just looking at other possibilities thank you

 

[Observe_dont_Absorb]

My concern is that if a woman is attacked, kidnapped, and disposed of or simply missing under strange circumstances and she happens to have hormonal issues or an alleged substance abuse problem, does that make it okay for LE to assume she caused her own death/disappearance and close the investigation? Absolutely not! MOO

100% this and I keep hoping and praying the police have got far more going on than one concentrated effort in what may have been the wrong direction covered up by a feeble excuse about the possible victim's state of mind. JMO MOO

 

[Agatha3]

Below is a link to the most recent Lancs Police press release and timeline, 15 Februar.
The timeline in this link shows 9.10am NB is seen by someone who knows her. It’s all there in the link.

Lancashire Constabulary - Nicola Bulley Missing Person Investigation

The latest news and information for Lancashire Constabulary

www.lancashire.police.uk

So unnamed witness, to us, lady who knew Nicola. Thanks.

 

[mrblack]

I hear what you're saying but if we were all to speculate what may have happened to NB, then there'd be thousands of different ideas and stories about what could happen to a woman who took her kids to school and has never been seen since.

As far as information released by LE, we have certainly not been told that NB was suicidal or severely mentally ill and there's nothing to suggest she disappeared herself. Personally, my forms of speculation lean in quite the opposite direction and are more in line with 'what usually happens to women'. This is why my personal feelings are that the info released was somewhat loaded and victim blaming.

It's almost as if we the public are being told to accept a narrative and drop the case. The police are saying they'll be withdrawing resources soon but they only ever went down one line of enquiry and it seems to have been the incorrect one so as opposed to withdrawing shouldn't they surely be putting all that energy in the other directions?

How can you say it's not the correct line of enquiry? The police have not just looked at one possibility and only one. They have spent massive amount of policing officer hours on this.

The police deal with missing people every single day, hundreds go missing up and down the county and majority are traced quickly because the police know how to investigate them.

My concern is that if a woman is attacked, kidnapped, and disposed of or simply missing under strange circumstances and she happens to have hormonal issues or an alleged substance abuse problem, does that make it okay for LE to assume she caused her own death/disappearance and close the investigation? Absolutely not! MOO

There is zero evidence she was attacked, kidnapped or disposed. All of these would have likely made a noise, caused a disturbance or left evidence. How is an attacker or kidnapper leaving the area with a person or body?

There is no physical evidence of her going in the water either you might say, but there wouldn't likely be until a body is found. The phone and lead places her in the area, right next to the water though.

People are trying to make this like a Netflix drama. In reality though, the simplest answer is usually the correct one.

 

[Lilbitcurious]

100% this and I keep hoping and praying the police have got far more going on than one concentrated effort in what may have been the wrong direction covered up by a feeble excuse about the possible victim's state of mind. JMO MOO

Explore ALL avenues! I hope so too, they can’t go back and start over

 

[JennieM]

Can anyone help me out? I know the timeline has been published and rehashed and questioned. But in everyone's opinion - who was the last person to see NB after she dropped her kids off that already *knew* NB and was certain it was her?

We keep hearing she walked here and she went there but effectively the path often being talked about is where her phone went. Have we ever had it really verified who saw her last that can say it was certainly her?

8:40a – Bulley dropped off her kids at St. Michael’s School.

Investigators said Bulley chatted with several people in the schoolyard, then began walking a short distance over the riverway to the river fields.

9:10a – A dog walker who knew Bulley, and often saw her walking her dog, Willow, confirmed seeing her in the upper field.

13 minute window: What happened to UK mom Nicola Bulley?

Police held a news conference about the whereabouts of Nicola Bulley, the British mother of two who mysteriously disappeared on Jan. 27 while walking her dog.

lawandcrime.com

 

[Observe_dont_Absorb]

Below is a link to the most recent Lancs Police press release and timeline, 15 Februar.
The timeline in this link shows 9.10am NB is seen by someone who knows her. It’s all there in the link.

Lancashire Constabulary - Nicola Bulley Missing Person Investigation

The latest news and information for Lancashire Constabulary

www.lancashire.police.uk

Thank you - so that's it 'witness who knows N' saw her in the upper field 09:10

 

[Observe_dont_Absorb]

Explore ALL avenues! I hope so too, they can’t go back and start over

That's the worrying aspect I truly hope they've had other stuff under their hat all this time, they sometimes do! My main hope is obv that N is alive and well somewhere after having done an elaborate disappearing trick but it does seem rather unlikely JMO

 

[gerbil]

Yeah that’s why I said some are only available with postcode as name is spelled wrong on a couple. Just looking at other possibilities thank you

https://www.yell.com/s/camp+sites-pinfold+lane+pr4+inskip+preston.html has camping/caravan sites listed up to 8 miles from Inskip.

 

[SpideySense]

My concern is that if a woman is attacked, kidnapped, and disposed of or simply missing under strange circumstances and she happens to have hormonal issues or an alleged substance abuse problem, does that make it okay for LE to assume she caused her own death/disappearance and close the investigation? Absolutely not! MOO

Here’s a possible explanation for LE’s thought process. Let’s suppose “third-party involvement in a woman’s disappearance” has quantifiable statistics as to probability. Let’s assume further that the probability of third-party involvement in a woman’s disappearance, without factoring in other known evidence, is the most common situation (this is an assumption for argument’s sake, not offered as a fact!)

But then let’s suppose that LE is also informed by specific facts known to them that indicate the woman was predisposed to cause her own disappearance. Let’s further suppose that LE has not found any physical or witness evidence that an abduction or violence was perpetrated by a third-party.

The dilemma for LE may be this: The likelihood, based on known cases, of a woman’s disappearance being caused by a third-party is X. However, known cases involving a woman whose disappearance was caused by a third-party, where in addition 1) she was also at the time predisposed to cause her own disappearance, and 2) no initial physical or witness evidence indicated abduction or third-party involvement, may be exceptionally rare or even non-existent.

It becomes not “following one path of inquiry while ignoring another,” or writing off the likelihood of a crime because the victim had emotional/hormonal issues. Rather, LE is presumably factoring in all the known evidence, weighing it against statistics and their training, and following the most probable scenario while back-burnering possibilities that are statistically unlikely or unprecedented. MOO

 

[Ozoner]

I just need to get clarification on something, because I’m wondering if assumptions are being made that may not be accurate: have LE or family reported anything specifically mentioning depression or possibility of suicide?

The reason I ask is because my understanding of perimenopause and menopause is that it’s a vulnerable time for women to experience a wide array of mental health issues, even if they’ve never experienced them before or only in mild forms. Mood disorders (depression, bipolar disorder, and anxiety) are one category of mental illness that may be exacerbated or have first onset during this period, but psychotic disorders like schizophrenia are another.

AFAIK, NB reportedly had vulnerabilities related to menopause and alcohol. Her family has reported that she suffered substantial negative effects from menopause including “brain fog,” then stopped taking HRT cold turkey because of severe headaches. They’ve stated that this abrupt cessation of HRT may have led to the current “crisis.”

With respect to the January 10 welfare check, my recollection is that LE stated no arrests were made, but that the matter was still being investigated.

**A different purely speculative take**

Maybe NB was not depressed or suicidal, but instead extremely anxious or experiencing psychosis-like symptoms. Maybe the January 10 visit was due to a panic attack, or paranoid delusions. Maybe she had expressed ideas or actions that involved harming someone not herself.

If abruptly stopping the HRT and the resulting sudden drop in estrogen led to a psychiatric crisis, for all we know, that crisis might have been related to manic, schizoid, or anxious delusional beliefs about PA, her family, or her children.

I suppose what I’m trying to say is, rather than being depressed or suicidal, is it possible NB developed ideas that led her to believe she needed to “escape” from people who might harm her, to plan that escape to avoid detection while operating under these delusions, even to secret away food and necessities in some location? Might she have left her phone so as not to be tracked? Might LE’s phrasing that they believed she “entered the river” be an indication she wanted to throw off scent hounds for a good distance? Could she be somewhere in an abandoned house actively trying to hide from authorities, who might be part of some imagined conspiracy?

PA’s recent interview wherein he says something like he wants every place within a certain area searched top to bottom makes sense to me if he believes she may be avoiding detection due to irrational beliefs.

MOO

I see something like this as entirely possible. I won't be at all surprised if she's found alive, but I won't be at all surprised if it turns out that she ran off and committed suicide.
I'm at:
30% voluntary/still alive
30% voluntary/suicide
20% abduction
20% accidental drowning

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

I notice the official LP timeline says they were informed of NBs disappearance at 11:01 and immediately graded her "high risk." That was presumably when PA called them as he was on his way to look for NB.

But am I remembering correctly that PA said the LP told him they were already at the river? They may not have initially known it was NB who had disappeared, but they were already responding. So do we know who initially called them and how long they had already been there?

Edit: I'm not deleting this, but my question is answered below. I misunderstood what PA said.

 

[Lilbitcurious]

https://www.yell.com/s/camp+sites-pinfold+lane+pr4+inskip+preston.html has camping/caravan sites listed up to 8 miles from Inskip.

Thank you!

 

[Karin1974]

This is a genuine question and if it appears stupid or insensitive then I apologise in advance ... Can somebody explain to me how someone can commit suicide going into water when they can swim? Surely your natural reaction kicks in and prevents you from drowning? How do you drown yourself? Wouldn't you just float? Or is it the tempreture that is fatal? I have tried to understand it but I can't figure it out.

IMO It sounds awful but I guess you could fill your pockets with rocks….MOO

 

[citygirl]

From the very beginning I read between the lines. Subtle clues from many statements. Family , friends and LE.
It became clear to me that Nicola may have been struggling for whatever reason.
Nothing was as it appeared.
Never wanted to say it at the time, as I was unsure I was right.
I'm sure many of you had the same inkling.
Having said that, hoping for the family this is resolved and they get answers.
Having lost people, as we all have, I detest the word closure.
There is never closure.Ever.
It is forever with you.
Perhaps softened, dulled but ever present.
MOO.

 

[MsBetsy]

I hear what you're saying but if we were all to speculate what may have happened to NB, then there'd be thousands of different ideas and stories about what could happen to a woman who took her kids to school and has never been seen since.

As far as information released by LE, we have certainly not been told that NB was suicidal or severely mentally ill and there's nothing to suggest she disappeared herself. Personally, my forms of speculation lean in quite the opposite direction and are more in line with 'what usually happens to women'. This is why my personal feelings are that the info released was somewhat loaded and victim blaming.

It's almost as if we the public are being told to accept a narrative and drop the case. The police are saying they'll be withdrawing resources soon but they only ever went down one line of enquiry and it seems to have been the incorrect one so as opposed to withdrawing shouldn't they surely be putting all that energy in the other directions?

Police stated they are investigating all angles, so if any new information is found the direction of the investigation could change at any time. They continue to search for the red van and the fisherman said to have been "hiding" his face.

I don't think releasing information about a person's mental state at the time of their disappearance (or during an investigation) is victim blaming. Issues related to substance use, menopause, depression, anxiety, etc are common and it is standard procedure to consider the person's mental health in a missing persons case. It is not the person's 'fault' and police were not suggesting Nicola was at fault for the issues she and her family had been dealing with recently. It was an 'explanation' rather than an 'accusation.'

I also doubt that was the only factor that put her in the high risk category. The environment in which she disappeared in and the fact that she was expected home after her walk would have made it a high risk disappearance. By all accounts, she was a great mother and would never leave her children. Police take all these things in consideration.

It was the high risk category that enabled LE to use every resource available in order to find her. They can only physically search for so long. That doesn't mean they will stop investigating. Missing persons cases sometimes remain open for several years, even after the person is found.

So if and when they do find a body, that won't necessarily be the end of the case.

 

[Loobyloo]

There was a long gap between 9.33 and the daughter contacting Nicola's partner, which contradicts the official version that the school was contacted, and the school then contacted the partner.

<snipped for focus>
There isn't necessarily a contradiction. We can't sleuth the witness's family, or the school staff, but these may not be mutually exclusive categories.

 

[Luxee]

I notice the official LP timeline says they were informed of NBs disappearance at 11:01 and immediately graded her "high risk." That was presumably when PA called them as he was on his way to look for NB.

But am I remembering correctly that PA said the LP told him they were already at the river? They may not have initially known it was NB who had disappeared, but they were already responding. So do we know who initially called them and how long they had already been there?

That doesn’t sound familiar to me. PA placed the call to Police. Police asked him to return home as they would send officers to his home address and the bench area.
Below is a paragraph I have taken from the transcript by @Allabouttrial of the PA/DW interview. This can be found in full in the media thread.

Paul - Nothing, nothing. I'd rung 999 on the way because I obviously knew something was wrong so the police rang me then while I was at the bench and said 'look you've got to get home because the police are going to be coming to your house, we need somebody at your house. You get home the police are on their way there. So I've rung the police at like.. about 10:50 and they were there, they got there at 25 past. So they were there really, really quick. So I then, I'd gone home then, taken Willow back.

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

That doesn’t sound familiar to me. PA placed the call to Police. Police asked him to return home as they would send officers to his home address and the bench area.
Below is a paragraph I have taken from the transcript by @Allabouttrial of the PA/DW interview. This can be found in full in the media thread.

Paul - Nothing, nothing. I'd rung 999 on the way because I obviously knew something was wrong so the police rang me then while I was at the bench and said 'look you've got to get home because the police are going to be coming to your house, we need somebody at your house. You get home the police are on their way there. So I've rung the police at like.. about 10:50 and they were there, they got there at 25 past. So they were there really, really quick. So I then, I'd gone home then, taken Willow back.

Ah, thanks. I must have misunderstood the part where PA said, "So I've rung the police at like.. about 10:50 and they were there," and not remembered what he said afterwards. I took it to mean they were already there when he called them.

 

[Karin1974]

I am also interested if anyone came across the scene in the period after Penny and Ron had been there? I’m also still interested in knowing if anyone stayed with willow and the phone etc whilst they waited for PA to come. I’m not sure I would leave a scene like that - I would wait there until the owners came back (especially if it looked odd like Ron said). IMO.

IMO I agree SO much, I understand you can only work with what you have but I find it so difficult to move past this. An untethered dog & a mobile phone, whether on the ground or on the bench - This is a an immediate indicator that someone is ‘missing’, at least from this particular scene! There seemed to have been no real sense of urgency at all. I believe I would have been on instant alert if I came across this type of situation, however, people differ I guess. MOO