Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #6

[cottonweaver]

The information on this has changed so is therefore unreliable but in my opinion if we can be certain that the dog was running between the water and the bench it gives a strong clue as to what happened.

yes, just ploughing my way thru the Media Links Only thread and this link was added later :
( seems to be an LE statement link)

• 9:33 a.m. - A witness found Nicola's dog, Willow, running between the gate to the field and the bench where the phone was located. Also found by that witness was the dog harness which was on the grass between the bench and the rivers edge.'UK - Nicola Bulley, St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire), Jan 27, 2023 *MEDIA, MAPS, & TIMELINES - NO DISCUSSION*

 

[ginnyw]

The live stream also seems to have ended and they were all off the boat towards the end.

Yes - it's very nerve-wracking. If I was still a smoker I'd be smoking, so goodness knows what that poor family must be going through.

 

[WestLondoner]

You'd hope they don't exclude an area based on what the other equipment found or didn't find. The point of this equipment is that it is better at detecting objects. The equipment is here. Use it to examine the area as if it is a day 1 search. Guess we'll see.

They probably haven't so much excluded as prioritised. If an area has been somewhat searched and come up empty, and another area not searched at all, you'd start with the latter and work forward, I would think.

 

[justicepeace]

Brilliant analysis of dog behaviour! People all too often humanise dogs. Years ago, on collecting my dog from the kennel following a holiday, I was most put out that my beloved pooch ran to a complete stranger who was also waiting to collect their pooch. Dogs are very basic creatures who just want food, warmth and a routine. My current dog is completely blind and deaf and you would never know. He has his nose and his routine and gets along absolutely fine.

It’s true though, we all have willow down as a grey friars bobby companion type when in reality dogs are just animals with basic needs.

 

[Deleted member 320164]

I don’t think we can assume that they’re not searching above the weir as well simply because that‘s all we can see from the footage.

 

[cottonweaver]

The scepticism around this is probably because there appears to be literally no evidence of it, and scant actual opportunity for a meeting to happen.

Depending on your point of view, the police have either displayed commendable moral courage (my view) or they have given some serious hostages to fortune in saying she fell in the river. It's the only scenario that fits the facts, except that she has not been found. If they are right, she will be found. If she's not found, the speculation will multiply.

It is just unfathomable that you can drown in a river 12 miles inland from the sea, be missed immediately and yet "disappear".

Have read more on river drownings in last few days than I ever would have cared to.
Apparently it's more common than we, the public, might assume.

If you look at buoyancy or sink rates and then factor in a body also possibly being trapped by obstructions on the river bed. Then look at the UK's accident rate sites for river drownings ( then factor in water temperature effect on humans from sudden immersion)

 

[WhoIsThatGuy]

I find it incredibly insensitive and uncomfortable that we are able to watch a live stream online of a search for a missing person taking place in a river. What if they did find a body or something of note? What has the world come to, what have we become as a people? Is this what modern day England is?

 

[cottonweaver]

I find it incredibly insensitive and uncomfortable that we are able to watch a live stream online of a search for a missing person taking place in a river. What if they did find a body or something of note? What has the world come to, what have we become as a people? Is this what modern day England is?

Do you know who the livestream ' belongs ' to? ( Am not on Facebook so couldn't watch)

 

[bringmeacupoft]

I find it incredibly insensitive and uncomfortable that we are able to watch a live stream online of a search for a missing person taking place in a river. What if they did find a body or something of note? What has the world come to, what have we become as a people? Is this what modern day England is?

I’m guessing they would cut the live stream at the point there will be time between discovery and removal.

 

[ginnyw]

Have read more on river drownings in last few days than I ever would have cared to.
Apparently it's more common than we, the public, might assume.

If you look at buoyancy or sink rates and then factor in a body also possibly being trapped by obstructions on the river bed. Then look at the UK's accident rate sites for river drownings

Yes - I read the following on river drowning stats:

2018 UK Water Related Fatalities Published | National Water Safety Forum

The National Water Safety Forum is the UK’s leading network for drowning prevention, promoting water safety through education, data-driven research, and collaborative campaigns across England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland.

www.nationalwatersafety.org.uk

But then I read the stats on number of people kidnapped in the UK in one year:

England and Wales kidnapping offences 2025| Statista

In 2024/25 there were ***** kidnapping offences recorded by the police in England and Wales, a slight decrease when compared with the previous year when there were ***** offences.

www.statista.com

And also the number of sexual offences carried out:

Sexual offending: victimisation and the path through the criminal justice system - Office for National Statistics

An overview of sexual offending in England and Wales, using a range of National Statistics and official statistics from across the crime and criminal justice system.

www.ons.gov.uk

And those figures shocked the hell out of me and kind of made me think again about this whole case. MOO.

 

[JeremyBentham]

I find it incredibly insensitive and uncomfortable that we are able to watch a live stream online of a search for a missing person taking place in a river. What if they did find a body or something of note? What has the world come to, what have we become as a people? Is this what modern day England is?

I personally don’t see a problem with it, up until the point at which something might be found. Then I’d expect the camera to stop.

 

[WhoIsThatGuy]

Do you know who the livestream ' belongs ' to? ( Am not on Facebook so couldn't watch)

I've not looked but a poster mentioned it is being streamed on a local newspaper website lancs live

 

[wackyw]

I was going to post similar, still catching up on the thread. I use those side-by-side maps a lot they are great.

The only thing I have spotted so far is a drain marked on the 1:10000 1949-1972 map -> link here

Seems the so called "abandoned house" opposite has been known as "The Old House" since the 19th century - must be very old so not surprised if renovations have been taking a long time.

It's grade 2 listed as well, just to add complication ...

THE OLD HOUSE, Upper Rawcliffe-with-Tarnacre - 1073046 | Historic England

List entry 1073046. Grade II Listed Building: The Old House. May include summary, reasons for designation and history.

historicengland.org.uk

 

[ginnyw]

Do you know who the livestream ' belongs ' to? ( Am not on Facebook so couldn't watch)

LancsLive - Latest news, sport, business and more from Lancashire

Get the latest news, events, sport and more from across Lancashire with LancsLive, featuring the latest stories, pictures, video and opinion.

www.lancs.live

 

[WhoIsThatGuy]

I personally don’t see a problem with it, up until the point at which something might be found. Then I’d expect the camera to stop.

I think that it is just plain wrong, I would not be happy if it were a relative of mine. It's like people who stand round recording when someone is being attacked or is dying in front of them instead of helping. This modern day smart phone age really annoys me and the impact it has had on society. And I am 28 years old, so not even an old codger.

 

[cottonweaver]

Yes - I read the following on river drowning stats:

2018 UK Water Related Fatalities Published | National Water Safety Forum

The National Water Safety Forum is the UK’s leading network for drowning prevention, promoting water safety through education, data-driven research, and collaborative campaigns across England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland.

www.nationalwatersafety.org.uk

But then I read the stats on number of people kidnapped in the UK in one year:

England and Wales kidnapping offences 2025| Statista

In 2024/25 there were ***** kidnapping offences recorded by the police in England and Wales, a slight decrease when compared with the previous year when there were ***** offences.

www.statista.com

And also the number of sexual offences carried out:

Sexual offending: victimisation and the path through the criminal justice system - Office for National Statistics

An overview of sexual offending in England and Wales, using a range of National Statistics and official statistics from across the crime and criminal justice system.

www.ons.gov.uk

And those figures shocked the hell out of me and kind of made me think again about this whole case. MOO.

yes sexual offences are so common we immediately assume this case must involve that kind of crime, even if we have no evidence of it ( aka confirmation bias)

I couldn't tell you how many adult women- compared to children- are kidnapped in England every year but the increasing rate of drownings seems to tell us something about our perception of existing dangers from accidental - non-criminal - deaths.


old post UK - UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #4

• "Inland open waters, such as rivers, canals,lakes, reservoirs and quarries continue to be the leading locations with 58% of deaths (N=139). ( leading cause of all water-related deaths)
• Almost half of (43%) people had no intention to enter the water, such as those walking, with causes including slips, trips and falls, being cut off by the tide, or swept in by waves (N= 107).
• Following a concerning increase in water-related deaths last year, over 50 organisations are, for the first time, issuing coordinated water safety advice for those visiting and enjoying waterways and coastlines as part of the #RespectTheWater campaign Public urged to “Respect the Water” as new statistics show drowning deaths increased last year, with more dying inland than around the coast. | National Water Safety Forum"
• At the download charts, there were 23 deaths recorded in rivers for that year, in England alone - 2021- just related to walking or running near a river.

 

[Mycroft42]

Hi new member here - this tragic case brought me to these forums.

I must admit to being confused by how little we know and what we do know is often contradictory, unclear and full of discrepancies.

Where was the phone found - it seems to have been on the bench but there was an early report that said it was on the ground by the tree.

How long was her coat? Police think "It's really important that the public pay heed to those very specific clothing descriptions..." and say it was ankle length when it's pretty clear from the ring footage it was knee length.

We don't know where Willow was found - local businesswoman (the 9:33 timing) says Willow was between the bench and the river. Police on 3rd Feb say "running between the gate to the field and the bench". Which gate? The one right behind the bench or another one? There looks to be a gate into a field near the Wyreside Caravan Park - is that the one they mean?

Where did this woman come from and where did she go afterwards? The fields are very small and if she was walking from the East along the towpath she would have had the bench in her line of sight for sometime before getting there. What did she see? Or was she walking in the opposite direction and came through the gate by the bench?

There was also mention of two people finding the phone and being unable to unlock the screensaver - when was this? Was this misreporting of the the lone businesswoman at 9:33? Or are these the "other people" the witness met up with who recognised Willow. Where was this meeting?

The 8:47am sighting of NB - where was she? Which way was she headed? Which way did the witness head after/during the sighting? Again, the field is quite small and NB would probably have been visible for a while until she went into the upper field.
Did NB head to towards the bench? I have in mind that after taking off Willow's harness, she sat here to send her email, text message her friend (why is this not on the timeline) and log into the Teams meeting before heading off again on her walk.

If she wasn't at the bench doing this, where did she do all that? Whilst walking?

The 9:10 sighting in the upper field - again the field is quite small, where was NB and which way was she walking? Which was was the witness walking? If out of the field towards the caravan park then no more sighting of NB would be possible but if walking into the field then NB would be visible for a little while before heading back to the bench.

Do we know if the police ever investigated the abandoned house? Is it even abandoned? The Mountain Rescue chap says they searched the grounds and the owner just happened to be there and had a quick look inside. Do we know if the police searched it as I'm sure I read somewhere the owner lives there and it's not abandoned - presume the police have ruled this out?

There is a small building, probably water board related, just up from the bench alongside the towpath in the lower field. I've not seen any mention of this anywhere - I presume it was searched?

Whilst it is most likely NB somehow ended up in the river (is it really 15ft deep by the bench? Seems unlikely given the width but I'd expect it to be more than a couple of feet due to the sharp bend) it is odd there is no evidence whatsoever of this.

I think the main issue for me is the lack of information about the witness sightings given the small size of the fields. We should have much more info from these about where NB was and what the witnesses were doing and heading. Looking at Google Earth I would think if you are in the lower field you could see the bench easily and if you were on the towpath heading towards the bench you would have a decent view of both the bench and the slope into the river, maybe even from before entering the lower field.

And, the towpath is raised slightly from the level of the fields so if NB was walking on this she'd have easily have been visible from most parts of either field and by anyone also on the towpath.

 

[justicepeace]

I'm sure it's been mentioned on here on an earlier thread, but does anyone else think it's odd that NB's walking route was previously mapped out by someone on Google Maps (this person also mapped the section of river alongside Rowanwater):

View attachment 400581

Google Maps link

It’s worth a discussion for sure BUT this was posted 4 years ago and I’m not even sure NB has been walking this route that long, certainly not publicly on starva etc, unless of course someone was watching. I could be totally mistaken of course. IMO. Jmo.

Does anyone know how old willow is approx.?

I know they moved into the current property in inskip in 2018…

 

[PeggyHenry]

That's an interesting thought, why would it be likely?

The last posts I read, a few pages back, seemed to say that there was no discrepancy in the clothes, what have I missed?

I’m not sure what the outcome is regarding clothing now… was the police description of what she was wearing accurate or not? Was a conclusion reached.
If she had changed clothes between the cctv images in which she was loading the car and the actual walk … then it could have been because she was meeting someone imo

 

[Belleville]

Have read more on river drownings in last few days than I ever would have cared to.
Apparently it's more common than we, the public, might assume.

If you look at buoyancy or sink rates and then factor in a body also possibly being trapped by obstructions on the river bed. Then look at the UK's accident rate sites for river drownings ( then factor in water temperature effect on humans from sudden immersion)

It's so common in Manchester that some people have suspected a serial killer is pushing people in!