Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #6

[justicepeace]

IMO maybe it was part of the agreement with LE that his team would join the search but they have to be on the same page with what's been communicated by the police. I doubt it is his personal view JMO.

Yes this, also that he could be up to his neck in some scrutiny if he keeps putting out solid facts I.e. I WILL FIND HER.

 

[Woodburnbay]

Her friend has since confirmed the police description is accurate, its the colour of the cctv that's off.

Ok,
What colour was her car reported as as that appears to be Blue also?

 

[GeorgeFormby]

This may have been talked through in some of the pages of previous threads on this, so apologies if so, but I have a question. If someone has fallen in a river, you know exactly where and at what tide state etc, but you can't find them - why can't you put an object of similar size, weight and buoyancy into the same water at the same tide state, and observe where it goes over time?

You could even do a sort of Monte Carlo analysis and do it dozens of times to see what the "usual" or "modal" result is. If you do it 50 times and the object ends up in 50 different places that's no help, but if it ends up in the same place half of the time that's where you'd focus.

Obviously as you're doing this in real time 10 days ex post, at best you'll find out where any body in the water might have been 10 days ago. Right now, however, that may still be of some help.

Or is this completely stupid?

I'd say too many variables - rainfall around the tributaries that feed the river, how much sediment was deposited at the meanders, tides, objects in the water at the time etc. I'm not convinced those experiments would offer much insight, over and above some basic understanding of the river.

 

[JeremyBentham]

The fact PF has changed his mind to suggest he now believes she is most likely in the river, suggests he has seen police evidence to support the theory, which we are not privy to. If so, is there any reason they won't share that? I know they hold things back, but just wonder for what purpose? And of course what the hell it might be.

 

[LuluR38]

do you have a link for found in the floor p!ease? I was quoting from the police press conference

Nicola Bulley was 'laughing and joking' just minutes before she vanished article where the woman mentions seeing the harness and says a bloke following with his dog found the Phone on the floor about two feet from the bench …

 

[3point5]

Ok,
What colour was her car reported as as that appears to be Blue also?

Im not too sure. I think because they knew exactly where her car was parked they've not really released many details about it.

It looks like a Mercedes GLE to me, but that's all I can tell. Could be either colour tbh.

 

[WestLondoner]

Just to add a bit of local knowledge. The bottom of the Wyre is sandy silty mud. There are some really treacherous parts with sinking sand on the estuary. I lived a bit downstream of St Michaels near the Wyre and you can see the mud at low tide. I don’t have recent or in depth knowledge of the St Michaels section above the weir but if the river bed is similar there too I can imagine it really sucking you down if you tried to push yourself up…

Well that's an interesting point, because a sort of sub-surface quicksand could presumably pull you in and make you disappear. Your ability to fight your way out would entail having your wits about you - which given the cold shock etc does not seem likely.

The trouble is, wouldn't this have to happen in area that's already been searched, and more or less exactly where you fell in? They have had people in wet gear walking along that river bed and there's not been any such feature noticed, I don't think.

 

[Blamhappy]

It's a very strange phenomena. Perhaps I've just never followed a case this closely before to notice it. It must be very disheartening to the police and volunteers that are often putting themselves in harms way to get an answer, only to be told they're doing a s*** job and the public with no training could do better.

I do get it, people don't want her to be dead. None of us do. And if we admit the police hypothesis is likely, then we must also admit that her passing is likely.

It's a heartbreaking case all around, but I do hope some people take a step back at the end of it and think how disparaging some of the comments must be to those involved. Especially the dive team that have been putting themselves in danger for 10 days straight, only to be told they've done a *advertiser censored* job and a new team will do better.



Thank you. I think that's a very good point. If people only followed the police press conferences then I agree a lot of the speculation would never have arisen in the first place. A lot of the inconsistencies to me seem more down to press jumping the gun than they do bad police info.

I have followed quite a few cases on here. I remember Adrian Lynch. The parents, understandably, felt that the police were wrong in suspecting an accident and they suspected foul play. But lots of people on here got in on the act as well, insinuating that the police were inept and failing to investigate a probable murder. In the end, Adrian's body was discovered in a body of water. He's succumbed to hypothermia and had fallen in. Very sad. I honestly think it's human nature and I don't mean to sound rude or condescending. It is frustrating to see police being subtly bashed and dismissed as inept though. I've seen it all over SM as well. I hope the case concludes today or tomorrow. I feel terribly for Nicola's family.

 

[Cuko]

Yes this, also that he could be up to his neck in some scrutiny if he keeps putting out solid facts I.e. I WILL FIND HER.

Has he not also said that he doesn’t believe she’s in the river? I can’t find the link to his earlier interview to confirm it, so JMO

 

[Sarahlou]

The fact PF has changed his mind to suggest he now believes she is most likely in the river, suggests he has seen police evidence to support the theory, which we are not privy to. If so, is there any reason they won't share that? I know they hold things back, but just wonder for what purpose? And of course what the hell it might be.

Because we have no right to know that information. There's no reason for them to tell us unless it would help the investigation.

 

[WestLondoner]

if we admit the police hypothesis is likely, then we must also admit that her passing is likely.

The police hypothesis is very highly likely indeed given the facts. No suspicious figures have been seen nearby, the only way to leave the place her phone was found would appear to be by the river, it's possible to fall over a dog, and if you do so into that river it is not necessarily simple to get out again.

 

[WestLondoner]

covered in press conference Friday, good idea to watch

Thanks, I missed that - what was the conclusion on this?

 

[ginnyw]

'We always locate within the hour.'

Expert underwater team 'will find Nicola Bulley immediately' if she drowned

Peter Faulding, founder of Specialist Group International, has offered his services to Lancashire Police for free

www.lancs.live

 

[RichardKimble]

phone data police have looked at. Stated in press conference, good idea to watch that

Thank you, can't see how can that determine NB wasn't there at say 9:25 .

 

[jackal67]

Nicola Bulley was 'laughing and joking' just minutes before she vanished article where the woman mentions seeing the harness and says a bloke following with his dog found the Phone on the floor about two feet from the bench …

Ok thanks. I am going with the police press con ference for my information , too many conflicting theories and stories on MSM for me

 

[markoid]

Phone not a decoy?
If they don't find NB in the river, will he come out and do an interview and say "Gee, well she isn't in the river, it must be foul play

If they don't find NB in the river, will he come out and do an interview and say "Gee, well she isn't in the river, it must be foul play then etc"

Clearly searching the river with potentially more accurate hardware/software is a good thing, there's something about this Peter Faulding guy that I find difficult to stomach though. He talks too much, he's looking for exposure and talking to the public via news interviewers. Its a horrible situation, but just go and get on with the f*cking job, instead of saying things like this

“It’s very easy to be an armchair detective in cases like this. I’ve had all sorts of people like psychics contact me about it. I’m going in with an open mind. What we need to do is get on with the job.”

He said that while this kind of work could be emotionally gruelling he had been heartened by the support from the community, including Bulley’s family, that he had received.

“There is a big community effort going on here. The British are great at pulling together in these kinds of situations,” he said.
From the Guardian

Expert diver says he ‘doesn’t think’ Nicola Bulley is in River Wyre

Diver says view is his ‘gut instinct’ as missing woman’s partner says daughters ‘miss their mummy desperately’

www.theguardian.com

If I was using advanced hardware for a job like this, and my main motivation was to help the family either get closure, or rule out a river accident/incident, I would not be talking with the press at all, there's a job of work to be done.

I have followed quite a few cases on here. I remember Adrian Lynch. The parents, understandably, felt that the police were wrong in suspecting an accident and they suspected foul play. But lots of people on here got in on the act as well, insinuating that the police were inept and failing to investigate a probable murder. In the end, Adrian's body was discovered in a body of water. He's succumbed to hypothermia and had fallen in. Very sad. I honestly think it's human nature and I don't mean to sound rude or condescending. It is frustrating to see police being subtly bashed and dismissed as inept though. I've seen it all over SM as well. I hope the case concludes today or tomorrow. I feel terribly for Nicola's family.

Here, here. It’s almost like some people want foul play.

Also, what happens to commons sense? I’ve read 100 times questions about the cordon and falling into a river. Clearly, the area was searched. No need for further cordon.

People fall. I live by a canal. It has a flat and even towpath - and people fall in, and some of them drown.

And finally. Peter (search guy), there is no ‘I’ in ‘Team’.

 

[jackal67]

Nicola Bulley was 'laughing and joking' just minutes before she vanished article where the woman mentions seeing the harness and says a bloke following with his dog found the Phone on the floor about two feet from the bench …

this is not verified as fact for me,third hand information by anonymous friend! Like I say MSM can be unreliable and causes confusion about the facts. I am sticking with police statements myself.

 

[themagiceye]

Clearly searching the river with potentially more accurate hardware/software is a good thing, there's something about this Peter Faulding guy that I find difficult to stomach though. He talks too much, he's looking for exposure and talking to the public via news interviews. Its a horrible situation, but just go and get on with the f*cking job, instead of saying things like this

“It’s very easy to be an armchair detective in cases like this. I’ve had all sorts of people like psychics contact me about it. I’m going in with an open mind. What we need to do is get on with the job.”

He said that while this kind of work could be emotionally gruelling he had been heartened by the support from the community, including Bulley’s family, that he had received.

“There is a big community effort going on here. The British are great at pulling together in these kinds of situations,” he said.
From the Guardian

Expert diver says he ‘doesn’t think’ Nicola Bulley is in River Wyre

Diver says view is his ‘gut instinct’ as missing woman’s partner says daughters ‘miss their mummy desperately’

www.theguardian.com

If I was using advanced hardware for a job like this, and my main motivation was to help the family either get closure, or rule out a river accident/incident, I would not be talking with the press at all, there's a job of work to be done.

Edited to add - He mentioned 6 person team, so why isn't he spending every minute with that team. He should be talking via the police, if he has to talk about it at all. His motives are somewhat blurred. He needs to run a business, but this sort of thing really riles me. Get the job done, get more business doing that job, stop with the media nonsense.

I suspect the police will have briefed him to align himself with their own media management - they will not want anyone fanning the flames of public discourse regarding the investigation.

 

[PandaMarch]

Thanks, I missed that - what was the conclusion on this?

you'll need to watch press conference, it's still online or transcript at start of thread

 

[WestLondoner]

I'd say too many variables - rainfall around the tributaries that feed the river, how much sediment was deposited at the meanders, tides, objects in the water at the time etc. I'm not convinced those experiments would offer much insight, over and above some basic understanding of the river.

OK, so the thinking is that if you did this X number of times you'd get X number of paths, meaning it would be of no value?