Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #7

[rhino]

Did I read somewhere that her Fitbit had synced up to the Tuesday? What information would they be able to get from that?

The Tuesday *before* she went missing yes.

 

[justicepeace]

I'm really getting confused now. Do we have any official police statement that says the phone was found on the bench?

I believe I have only seen them say that it was in the area of the bench. And it is other news outlets that have reported the second walker saying it was on the bench.

The problem with on the bench, on the floor, under the tree, by the path is the police were not the ones who found it. Witness(es) found it, so apart from the witness(es) present no-one can be 100% certain where exactly the phone was initially.

In an ideal world we would know of course, seems to be an easy question but the problem with this case is nothing is easy because it’s botched from the get go IMO.

We have more chance of willow telling us IMHO. It’s a mess.

 

[Lord Peter Flimsy]

Is this guy ‘looking’ for NB just enjoying his own publicity and media spotlight? He seems to have a lot of hypothesis. If as he says she is only a few metres from where she might have fallen in I think they might have found her by now. Why on earth is he speaking to the husband about possible stalkers and enemies? It’s nothing to do with him. This is starting to feel like Ace in the Hole.

 

[JeremyBentham]

Is it? 20ft away from where she went missing?

John Darwin lived next door for years and no one checked there.

Of course I know it's very different, but crazy things do happen.

 

[jackal67]

This should be pinned to the start of every new thread.IMO

I agree.

 

[blueangellight]

Sorry but Mark WT used to mean a lot to me - his documentary about that missing case was so interesting on NF. But the MM case he covered proved nowt. Always great at chipping in …

Yes I was disappointed with MWT on MM case & the tia sharp case, he was interviewing the guy ( suspect Stuart hazel ) in his house & tia sharpe was dead & hidden in that small house & had been for 10 days unbeknown to him or police, yet he sat in it with a film crew, although it had been searched previously by police & there was police in & out every day but apparently the stench of the decomposing body was so bad the next morning after the interview it was beyond doubt she was in there, all those professionals missed it, she was in the loft that had already been searched by police, I not sure which is the NF case you are referring to, there's so many cases

 

[sundaaaay]

Is this guy ‘looking’ for NB just enjoying his own publicity and media spotlight? He seems to have a lot of hypothesis. If as he says she is only a few metres from where she might have fallen in I think they might have found her by now. Why on earth is he speaking to the husband about possible stalkers and enemies? It’s nothing to do with him. This is starting to feel like Ace in the Hole.

Agree and the tabloids are loving it

 

[Just-a-random-girl]

It's unusual for such searches not to form part of the LE search media campaign. There are usually photos of the activity, people living nearby speak to the media and say their house was searched, you see police going through bins with sticks, etc. Obviously much focus has been on the river but if a loved one went missing by a river I'd like to think everywhere in the the immediate vicinity was thoroughly checked. Maybe it has been, it just isn't clear.

EDIT: Sorry was meant to add a quote tweet

 

[Blamhappy]

The problem with on the bench, on the floor, under the tree, by the path is the police were not the ones who found it. Witness(es) found it, so apart from the witness(es) present no-one can be 100% certain where exactly the phone was initially.

In an ideal world we would know of course, seems to be an easy question but the problem with this case is nothing is easy because it’s botched from the get go IMO.

We have more chance of willow telling us IMHO. It’s a mess.

I don't personally think it's botched at all.

 

[Dowls90]

Two possible reasons for searching further upstream:

1. If someone climbed down to retrieve an object (harness?) they may have found it difficult to get out so walked along in the water to look for another exit point. Cold water shock and perhaps varying depth of water then takes over.

2. If the river is tidal further down there could be a situation where a big tide (spring tide) comes over the weir and reverses the usual direction of water movement in the area.

IMO

I personally think this an accidental drowning and the body will be found within a short distance of the area where the dog harness was found.

If the harness was wet when found this could be what led the police to the same conclusion.

I can't see that they would hold back the information that the harness was wet though. That would be evidence that would semi-prove their working hypothesis, especially with the criticism they are getting. Also, there are stone steps at the entry point near the bench, unless they are extremely slippery (they don't look it though from the pictures) she could have exited there.

 

[WestLondoner]

The lead and harness, from the moment NB wasn’t holding them, can be placed, moved, face up/down, locked/unlocked, on/around the bench, to the ground/floor.
But the dog, for the most part was free to do whatever it wanted. Even if it was tethered, then got free. Once free, the dog doesn’t see ‘path’ or ‘gate’!
The style, wooden or metal gate or an even a second gate wouldn’t be an obstacle. All the parks, paths, lanes, roads are accessible for the dog.
If she went back through the gate the dog can still access her by going round the gate and not through.
Willow could have gone in any direction but stayed near/around the bench!

The dog would see the human as the pack leader in a pack of two, so it would go where the leader goes. If the leader goes somewhere it can't follow, such as into a shop, it probably wouldn't take itself home. It would wait for and go home with the leader.

Dogs' noses are sensitive enough to work out whether they're following a trail the wrong way. If there were a scent trail between the bench and a gate, the dog would know which way whoever left it was going.

If the spaniel was noticed hanging around the bench, probably that's where the most recent trace of the pack leader was to be found. If NB had stopped there then left via the gate, or had gone into a vehicle, it would have hung around there instead.

Tracking dogs could have verified all this right away, but IDK if LP has any, or at what point in an initially unremarkable case you'd mobilise them.

This small data point does suggest the last place NB stood was the edge of the bank.

 

[JimmyBets]

Whilst we go round in circles, I’ve been trying to work out the probability of NB being in the river by way of an accident.
So, given the only facts we know in that NB is a regular Walker of this route and that she can swim.

<modsnip: no link for posted statistics/probabilities>

Accidentaly falling into the river absolutely could have happene. I just wanted to think of it in terms of probabilit.

Dog walkers….please don’t say that you ALWAYS stumble when out walking or that you OFTEN trip up. You remember the trips but not all the walks with no incident at all.
if you have had a fall, put it into context of how many times you’ve walked your dog.

 

[I wonder]

RSBM

Seeing as the UK is not a police state, law enforcement cannot do this without PC

Or with the consent of the owners, which, frankly, I’d very much hope was given immediately.

 

[green leaves]

I genuinely find the idea that someone falls into a river on a freezing cold day while walking strange and oddly far fetched.
If the dog was wet then maybe I could imagine a scenario, because perhaps something has happened with the dog that had caused her to go near the river.
To be going for a walk in winters clothes, on a cold day and think you were close enough to fall into a river is baffling.
Stranger things have happened no doubt. JMO

 

[Scotsleuth]

Not according to this witness.

Nicola Bulley was 'laughing and joking' just minutes before she vanished

"They say she was laughing and joking with them as she went by"

www.lancs.live

This statement is from a villager who heard it second hand. Police statement confirms phone was on the bench. There was confusion from her statement around 5mins in as she corrected herself but I think she meant the phone had already been seen on the bench at 9.20 so already 'found' but it was left there and then 'found again' at 9.33 by the person who found the dog. Phone on the bench, harness on ground between bench and river.
Video of police statement from 2 days ago in link
https://www.blackpoolgazette.co.uk/...arance-and-appeal-for-dashcam-footage-4014687

 

[Blamhappy]

Whilst we go round in circles, I’ve been trying to work out the probability of NB being in the river by way of an accident.
So, given the only facts we know in that NB is a regular Walker of this route and that she can swim.

<modsnip: no source link for posted statistics/probabilities>
Accidentaly falling into the river absolutely could have happene. I just wanted to think of it in terms of probabilit.

Dog walkers….please don’t say that you ALWAYS stumble when out walking or that you OFTEN trip up. You remember the trips but not all the walks with no incident at all.
if you have had a fall, put it into context of how many times you’ve walked your dog.

Compare this with the probability of being abducted while walking a dog, and the phone connected to a Teams call being left behind, and the dog not following the abductor. Which has a higher chance?

 

[Fishwick]

Whilst we go round in circles, I’ve been trying to work out the probability of NB being in the river by way of an accident.
So, given the only facts we know in that NB is a regular Walker of this route and that she can swim.

<modsnip: no source link for posted statistics/probabilities >
Accidentaly falling into the river absolutely could have happene. I just wanted to think of it in terms of probabilit.

Dog walkers….please don’t say that you ALWAYS stumble when out walking or that you OFTEN trip up. You remember the trips but not all the walks with no incident at all.
if you have had a fall, put it into context of how many times you’ve walked your dog.

Well yes, any of the possible scenarios are unlikely events in the course of a normal day, that’s why we’re here.

Given what we know, the question is what is the most likely sequence of events.

 

[DaFroome]

John Darwin lived next door for years and no one checked there.

Of course I know it's very different, but crazy things do happen.

Google Maps

Find local businesses, view maps and get driving directions in Google Maps.

maps.app.goo.gl

Not been discussed on this site, but pretty close.

 

[Dowls90]

The problem with on the bench, on the floor, under the tree, by the path is the police were not the ones who found it. Witness(es) found it, so apart from the witness(es) present no-one can be 100% certain where exactly the phone was initially.

In an ideal world we would know of course, seems to be an easy question but the problem with this case is nothing is easy because it’s botched from the get go IMO.

We have more chance of willow telling us IMHO. It’s a mess.

Surely if the phone was ever on the floor it would have mud on it or something? It's quite a muddy area. Unless trace evidence of this has been found after the fact so they are changing their official statement to around the bench?

 

[Just-a-random-girl]

Often they will search outbuildings and yards that someone could illicitly/easily access.

But in this case, with a disappearance on a country lane, it is not as if there are many such relevant locations to search

Or with the consent of the owners, which, frankly, I’d very much hope was given immediately.

Exactly. Many people let the police search their homes in the search for Libby Squire. No warrants sought or required, they wanted to help.