Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #8

[cottonweaver]

I think we need more of a definite answer as to whether NB could have been swept out to sea or not; provided she did in fact fall into the river close to where her mobile phone was found. And if at all possible, what are the chances of this actually happening.

One news report has Peter Faulding stating it's 'impossible, literally', where another has him stating NB 'could have been swept out to sea by now'. View attachment 401153
View attachment 401152

I cannot keep up with him !

 

[WestLondoner]

The thing I don't get about whether she could have been swept out to sea is that she is presumably, somehow, completely submerged, as she is not visible on the surface. If she is fully submerged in what is - in places at least - a shallow river, then she would ground frequently, her clothing would snag on underwater debris, and she would move up and downstream according to the tidal state. Between this and the winding course of the river, I do not understand how she makes it to the sea, or moves that far. I would have thought she would have ended up against a bank somewhere quite soon.

 

[hedgetog]

I'm a nice person, but not a dog owner. I would make a concerted effort to ignore a dog I did not know. I certainly wouldn't wait around until an owner appeared. My thought process is that a dog would know where its owner was and if the owner didn't have the dog in sight then would most-likely be looking for it and possibly calling it. If I waited with an unknown dog I may be preventing it from returning to its owner.

I would also do the same, not sure if it makes me a bad person, especially if in a rush to get somewhere. I can also comprehend people doing the ooppiste and making a concerted effort to search for the owner. I suppose it's a case of remembering that actions which don't align with what we would do don't mean that they are actually unusual overall.

 

[DaFroome]

Been reading these threads and just wanted to offer an anecdote to those who don't believe Willow wouldn't have followed NB into the water...

I owned a springer spaniel who loved the water, she'd be in there at any chance she got (like most springers). Despite this, when myself and some friends were wild swimming out in the lake district, my springer was strangely reluctant to join us. Something about seeing us in the water freaked her out. Even calling her in with us, she was keen to get back onto dry land. Springers are very sensitive dogs, and for me it's not beyond the realm of possibility that Willow would have been confused/upset about seeing a person in the water when that is not something she usually experiences.

Yes. I agree. That’s my experience with my dogs. Don’t assume the dog being dry means it didn’t see her fall into the river. Dogs will struggle to process these circumstances but wouldn’t routinely through themselves into what they might perceive to be a dangerous or difficult situation, no matter their usual love of water. They would be very hesitant.

It being dry might just actually mean it chose to stay safe.

 

[hedgetog]

Personally I believe he should discuss his theories with police only.
The general public would be happy with a search description, this causes division.

I agree, it doesn't seem helpful whereas the actual work he is doing and the resources he has been able to provide have been hugely useful. I think it's possible to be critical of the approach to the media whilst respecting his contribution.

 

[Forget-me-Not]

A photo of the weir at St Michael’s. Not as large as l expected it to be, but it appears to be in scale with the river at this point. I can’t imagine NB going up and over it if drowned bodies do indeed sink. Wouldn’t she be ‘trapped’ in the area before the actual ’drop’ into the lower level?

 

[Lincolnshirelad]

The equipment they are using is a combination of various things, one device in particular is this

EXPLORER MK II Towed System - Marine Sonic Technology

www.marinesonic.com

This product uses sonar to the level it could identify each stone on the bed - combined with divers in the pools where the sonar would be obstructed, the length of river they covered - not finding anything AT ALL. Says to me this is definitively she's not in the river.

One thing to factor in is this mans reputation - he's not just a random guy doing this, he has more experience than some of the police working this case and his equipment has solved many cases. Combined with the divers in the police that were brought in and other search and rescue teams.

They would be able to study flow rates including variations with different sizes of body / clothing items and even things like airpods and such.

The fact they have not discovered a single item to suggest shes in the water after the repeated dives and scans from the river mouth up to past the weir, we can say without police confirmation shes not in the river.

Question is - where is she?

 

[cottonweaver]

I agree, it doesn't seem helpful whereas the actual work he is doing and the resources he has been able to provide have been hugely useful. I think it's possible to be critical of the approach to the media whilst respecting his contribution.

Indeed but consider this additional scenario...

if, as he has previously & regularly said, there is a suspicious/criminal element to this case ( add your own theory here, eg a witness or stalker actually pushed her into that river at that spot) imagine what happens during the criminal prosecution which might follow.

How do you think a defendant's trial lawyer would use PF's past, multiple expert statements ' she cannot have gone into that river' during the trial, in front of a jury?

tldr
There's a reason that LE don't speculate or give running commentary during active cases, unless they need to, for public appeals etc. (Motivated by securing convictions)

 

[CJS83]

MOO very early in these threads many of us - me included - realised for the first time how well modded WS is as we had our theories snipped and deleted as not being victim friendly or particularly relevant.
Until this thread I had only commented on obvious crimes/POIs and wasn't aware of the broader rules of what could/should be posted.

Comments from Nicola's friends and family on how hurtful social media has been had reinforced how important it is WS is well sourced and respectful.

I do wish PF would follow the same principles. He is really not coming across very well IMO.

JMO, I feel LE are working very sensitively and as they say, we'll know more soon, but should not expect to know it all - they've been clear from the start this is very unlikely to be a crime.

 

[Smccat]

Where exactly is the weir as it isn't too clear on Google maps?
Is it possible that the tidal flow has caused back-flow along a tributary or storm channel leading into the Wyre?

Red X

 

[Mr X]

A photo of the weir at St Michael’s. Not as large as l expected it to be, but it appears to be in scale with the river at this point. I can’t imagine NB going up and over it if drowned bodies do indeed sink. Wouldn’t she be ‘trapped’ in the area before the actual ’drop’ into the lower level?
View attachment 401162

I think that weir might well have the hydraulic towback effect. If it is only 350m from where she went in and she was a strong swimmer then IMO it is more than likely that she would have managed to remain afloat until she got there. If it does have the effect mentioned then there would be no escape .

They MUST have searched under there by now. Surely.

This is the weir in Wales which caused the drownings of more than one paddleboarder.

From Swansea Bay News : Accident investigators publish report on ‘tragic and avoidable’ fatal Haverfordwest paddleboarding incident

 

[kittythehare]

Sorry but how on earth do members here post such great posts, I get 2 lines in and the page crashes or my text disappears... its a terribly glitchy page..tried to reply to so many posts here but it's not easy to navigate.. help? My last reply hopefully made its way to kittythehare re. Flood defence systems

I didn't see it, I live in a notoriously slow internet area. I want to see it though. I'll go to your profile and try tracking it from there

 

[Lincolnshirelad]

One thing I would like to share, when I was 13 my friend drowned in a lake. He slipped on the sand and fell in, a friend was holding his hand but his body was like a lead weight and sunk really fast. The water was ice cold and it was pretty horrific.

When divers intially went in, they assumed he would just be there at the bottom and would be a simple recovery. It ended up taking 8 hours but they found him, the first part of the investigation was divers combing the lake bed it was only a short period when they used sonar or some device at the time and found the mine shaft. What they discovered was the lake had a mine shaft as it was a flooded quarry and his body had ended up sinking into it quite deep, almost 70ft into it.

What I want to point out there, the police were not immediately onto the fact he might be down a mineshaft but when they did shift their investigation to the point there's somewhere down there, the tools and equipment they used they found him within the hour.

These tools that are being used by Peter are massively more advanced as that was almost 20 years ago.

Nicola would have to get over the weir, through deep pools with varying currents (pools create a whirlpool effect) and also shallow beds, turns, reeds, and sandbanks before she reached the sea. All with divers and police and volunteers searching. All the time none of her belongings got stuck anywhere.

Peter is right, shes not in the water.

 

[flysleuthD]

I didn't see it, I live in a notoriously slow internet area. I want to see it though. I'll go to your profile and try tracking it from there

 

[wackyw]

any around where they believe she entered the water?
Any reason for any to be there?
Even historic?

I don't think so, the area has been almost exclusively agricultural as far as I am aware. Could be wrong though.

 

[kittythehare]

Can't seem to reply...still finding my feet with this glitchy page!



















Reply to kittythehare comment ...

















St Micheal's was hit by devastating floods in recent years. New flood defences and possible pipe networks.

FOUND iT!
Would any underground large pipes have been placed in the river at all?
For any reason, flood defenses or drainage?

 

[flysleuthD]

I don't think it sent... I'm having real issues posting to this page. Was rreferencing to a page I found on Google about the river wyre at St michaels flood defence systems.

 

[ayrshireguy]

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[kittythehare]

I don't think it sent... I'm having real issues posting to this page. Was rreferencing to a page I found on Google about the river wyre at St michaels flood defence systems. View attachment 401165

Brilliant find.
Thanks so much..
Now we just need to figure whether any might have entrances around where police believe she entered the water..

 

[FlyHigh209]

I do wish PF would follow the same principles. He is really not coming across very well IMO.

Its a hard one as he is there at the familys request & from what he says in quite lengthy communications.

Its definitely a bit odd seeing his daily press briefings compared to the police force though.