Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #9

[Nikynoo]

Like I said it's close to the upper field where she was last spotted

no, it is not. The upper field is near the camping pods and caravan park.

 

[Firstsnow4]

Has there been much discussion on bins and bin collections?

A wheelie bin would be a way that a body or alive person could be moved to another location without much suspicion. Nicola is only 5 ft 3, so a possibility. They could then be moved elsewhere in a vehicle.

Were there any wheelie bins placed in easily accessible locations to the field and bench area?

Nicola went missing on a Friday so its unlikely bins were collected before the Monday (unless there was a Friday collection after 9am). Did searches of properties and gardens take place before routine bin collections and/or were bin collections in the immediate vicinity stopped?

That is a very good point. Especially when you consider the Lindsay Birbeck case.

 

[GTB72]

Like I said it's close to the upper field where she was last spotted

Awful long way for NB go to without being spotted on either dashcam or in person though. Think highly unlikely. Imo.

 

[Nikynoo]

DBM - duplicate

 

[Sillybilly]

ADMIN NOTE

WS is fact based.

Posts that state something as fact without providing a link get removed, along with all responses stemming from it.

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[factorfiction77]

I had a look on Google Maps ( satellite view) of the barn she describes it as being parked near to. On G Maps, there's a photo of a red van?/vehicle parked on the other side of the same barn

( obviously it might not be the same vehicle but .... she reported it on 27th Jan when she saw it & then called again on 2nd Feb. I just wonder if it's come to nothing or they might have said something at the last press conference. Anyway, good on the woman for reporting, regardless)


link for the photo

Google Maps

Find local businesses, view maps and get driving directions in Google Maps.

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View attachment 401592

Great information you may be right as it could belong to the residents there.. this case is crazy .. so hopeful the family get answers soon

 

[kev4pe]

So now there is a tatty red van. seems a long way from where she was last spotted but van could have moved around.

 

[Davieson]

Totally with you on this. Late news of this red van (late to us general public at least) is yet another interesting twist. Tbh I'm not ruling anything out yet, based on current info from police. River fall, abduction (by humans, not aliens), walking away, it's all still on the table for me MOO.

Indeed it is. Even walking away would likely involve a third party, otherwise how would she remove herself from the immediate area?
Given the involvement of the NCA, it did cross my mind that one possibility might be her removal to a safe house for some reason

Totally with you on this. Late news of this red van (late to us general public at least) is yet another interesting twist. Tbh I'm not ruling anything out yet, based on current info from police. River fall, abduction (by humans, not aliens), walking away, it's all still on the table for me MOO.

I do love tabloid descriptions..A suspicious looking van. What made it suspicious, did it have shifty looking headlights?

 

[Night Shift]

Great information you may be right as it could belong to the residents there.. this case is crazy .. so hopeful the family get answers soon

I agree with you that I hope the family ger closure soon.

But I don't agree the case is 'crazy'. IMO Nicola fell in, drowned and was washed out to the estuary probably within a few days.

 

[CriLondon]

So now there is a tatty red van. seems a long way from where she was last spotted but van could have moved around.

Without crossing the river yes .
With crossing the river , it's fairly close in line of sight , IMO .

 

[Officer Dibble]

So do we assume that this witness has spoken to MSM because they are frustrated that Police haven't (in their opinion) looked into this van? I know in the missing Corrie McKeague case witnesses spoke out after a period because they phoned in and reported things to Police but Police claimed later on they could not find any such reports. Just my opinion. MOO

Edited to add the link Police searching for Nicola Bulley have been told about new ‘tatty red van’ lead

 

[Dotta]

"Search for Nicola Bulley moves from the river to the sea: Police boats trawl Morecambe Bay for missing mother - as it emerges officers may be trying to trace a red van parked near where she vanished two weeks ago." ​

Nicola Bulley search moves to the SEA as police trawl Morecambe Bay

The 45-year-old vanished while walking her dog in St. Michael's on Wyre in Lanchashire at around 9.20am on January 27.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[supersleuth123]

I've gone round in circles on this (as we all have!), but overall, IMO she did not enter the water in an accident as per LE's main working hypothesis. I do think something has occurred which is out of the ordinary, possibly 'foul play' by some party, but I do not think she was abducted. I'll try to explain my thinking, apologies in advance for the long post!

Why I think she's not in the water:

- I'm taken by the speed and scale of the initial response (helicopters in the air -presumably with thermal imaging IMO, searches on the banks etc.), and I find it surprising she was not seen/found that afternoon, given it was a low incoming tide

- I'm taken by the fact that she (nor any clothes or belongings) still hasn't been found 13 days of intense searching later. I understand that rivers are complex and finding people in water is hard, but given the intensity of the search in a "known" location, this feels surprising.
- As much as Paul Faulding is a self-serving [expletive] - snipped by me! - (IMO), I do believe he knows his stuff about water searches, so I'm taken by the fact a) he and his team also haven't found anything, and b) his opinion that it would be nearly impossible for NB to end up in the sea. This is supported, perhaps, by the fact of the unfortunate 2yr old drowning victim found on mudflats. If a 2yr old enters the water while it's in flood, and enters right down near the Shard Bridge, but still doesn't end up in the sea, it seems far less likely that an adult does, falling in above the weir, at low tide. IMO.

I'm not saying she's definitely not in the water - of course not. But taken all together, on the balance of probabilities IMO she is not.

Why I don't think she was abducted from the fields/riverside:

- Mainly, I trust LE on this, in that I think they just cannot countenance it with the evidence and information they have. Particularly: the relative lack of suitable exit points (vehicular or otherwise), relative lack of opportunity (I do accept that it only takes a few seconds, but not if the only exit point is down a single track path with a 5 minute walk), and the total lack (apparently) of evidence - at the scene, in follow-up enquiries etc.
By the way, I also extend this to thinking she wasn't attacked in the fields, and I also rule out all the (IMO) far-fetched scenarios around stranger attacks / abductions, including but not limited to: pulled into Rowanwater, kidnapped by boat, etc.

Why I think something 'fishy' might have happened:

- I'm totally unconvinced by the witness statements (or at least what's been released of them by LE). They are inconsistent and unreliable, and have been since the outset. I'm sure this is exacerbated by LE/media sloppiness, but that's not my problem - from what I can read, the witness reports are almost completely unreliable. If there's evidence (such as CCTV) that would support witness statements, I cannot for the life of me understand why LE wouldn't release it. I therefore assume there is none. This by the way is not necessarily to imply any wrongdoing on the part of the witnesses, but to bring in to question the timelines and/or NB's presence in the fields - at the least.

- I think PA's decision to call the police immediately, combined with their decision to react immediately, suggests there is information not yet released (perhaps never will be) which has caused this fast reaction. I won't speculate on what that piece of information may be.

- I'm generally concerned about the lack of video evidence of NB at any time after leaving her home. Again, if it exists I cannot think why it wouldn't have been released, so I am assuming it does not exist. This in itself is not 'fishy' (it's a rural area), but it serves to increase the likelihood that if something fishy has happened, it could have gone unnoticed

- Whilst I don't subscribe to 'woo woo'-type thinking or conspiracies, I do feel that the 'wisdom of the crowd' and the 'gut-sense' that something's off is not to be sniffed at. As humans, we got to where we are by being good at interpreting social cues, pattern recognition, and sensing danger etc. Sometimes this means we get anxious/fearful when we shouldn't, but sometimes it means we're good at 'sensing' when something isn't right. A lot of people 'sense' something isn't right, and I do put some weight on that.

So what does that leave?

Here are my remaining theories, in order of likelihood (IMO) - and I am being careful not to be victim-unfriendly or overly speculative on anyone not a POI.

1. Voluntary exit by NB. Won't speculate specifically why, or where she went, or where she is - the options are numerous. Whatever the specifics, she would have voluntarily left the riverside, and she wasn't seen leaving. Implies she deliberately left her belongings, I won't speculate why.

2. Disagreement with someone she knew, or knew of, that resulted in her leaving the riverside and eventually coming to harm. There are lots of scenarios potential scenarios here, and I won't speculate. In all of them, she's not seen leaving, and her belongings and dog were likely returned to the scene. Exactly when they were returned to the scene would depend on who the third party was - it's either before 9.33, or any point before 10.50.

3. NB was never in the riverside area. Implies, for whatever reason, that she simply did not arrive there after dropping the girls at school, and that witness statements are either deliberately fabricated or mistaken - either is possible, and it kind of depends again on the reason. This scenario implies her belongings were placed at the scene. I give this whole scenario less likelihood because I assume telephony data gives LE more confidence she was there. Unless LE can prove she was there (dash-cam/CCTV), we have to go on witness statement combined with phone data - which together are pretty solid (hence why I think this is the least likely option), but don't completely guarantee NB was there, in person.

 

[jackal67]

Hello,first time poster long time lurker..I've not seen this mentioned anywhere but then I've not read the full threads but <modsnip - no link from an approved source>...MO but what is she was pregnant had morning sickness and rushed to the edge to vomit then got dizzy and fell in I always used to sway a bit after morning sickness and had to hold onto something for a few seconds untill it passed.I hope I have not violated any rules in posting this.

NB is 45 so not very likely really

 

[candlemaker808]

go further down the lane and it's a big old stone barn on the right.
( I've screenshot the other side of it in my earlier post, a few mins ago - the photo with the red vehicle parked in shot!)

Google Maps

Find local businesses, view maps and get driving directions in Google Maps.

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I saw the structure that I think you mean, but I don’t know if I’d describe it as a barn. Maybe others would, but I suppose it’s not helpful regardless, as we don’t know if that’s where the witness is referring to. I’m a bit sceptical about this overall. An old red van sounds too much like something out of a TV series for my liking. JMO.

 

[Officer Dibble]

I've gone round in circles on this (as we all have!), but overall, IMO she did not enter the water in an accident as per LE's main working hypothesis. I do think something has occurred which is out of the ordinary, possibly 'foul play' by some party, but I do not think she was abducted. I'll try to explain my thinking, apologies in advance for the long post!

Why I think she's not in the water:

- I'm taken by the speed and scale of the initial response (helicopters in the air -presumably with thermal imaging IMO, searches on the banks etc.), and I find it surprising she was not seen/found that afternoon, given it was a low incoming tide

- I'm taken by the fact that she (nor any clothes or belongings) still hasn't been found 13 days of intense searching later. I understand that rivers are complex and finding people in water is hard, but given the intensity of the search in a "known" location, this feels surprising.
- As much as Paul Faulding is a self-serving [expletive] - snipped by me! - (IMO), I do believe he knows his stuff about water searches, so I'm taken by the fact a) he and his team also haven't found anything, and b) his opinion that it would be nearly impossible for NB to end up in the sea. This is supported, perhaps, by the fact of the unfortunate 2yr old drowning victim found on mudflats. If a 2yr old enters the water while it's in flood, and enters right down near the Shard Bridge, but still doesn't end up in the sea, it seems far less likely that an adult does, falling in above the weir, at low tide. IMO.

I'm not saying she's definitely not in the water - of course not. But taken all together, on the balance of probabilities IMO she is not.

Why I don't think she was abducted from the fields/riverside:

- Mainly, I trust LE on this, in that I think they just cannot countenance it with the evidence and information they have. Particularly: the relative lack of suitable exit points (vehicular or otherwise), relative lack of opportunity (I do accept that it only takes a few seconds, but not if the only exit point is down a single track path with a 5 minute walk), and the total lack (apparently) of evidence - at the scene, in follow-up enquiries etc.
By the way, I also extend this to thinking she wasn't attacked in the fields, and I also rule out all the (IMO) far-fetched scenarios around stranger attacks / abductions, including but not limited to: pulled into Rowanwater, kidnapped by boat, etc.

Why I think something 'fishy' might have happened:

- I'm totally unconvinced by the witness statements (or at least what's been released of them by LE). They are inconsistent and unreliable, and have been since the outset. I'm sure this is exacerbated by LE/media sloppiness, but that's not my problem - from what I can read, the witness reports are almost completely unreliable. If there's evidence (such as CCTV) that would support witness statements, I cannot for the life of me understand why LE wouldn't release it. I therefore assume there is none. This by the way is not necessarily to imply any wrongdoing on the part of the witnesses, but to bring in to question the timelines and/or NB's presence in the fields - at the least.

- I think PA's decision to call the police immediately, combined with their decision to react immediately, suggests there is information not yet released (perhaps never will be) which has caused this fast reaction. I won't speculate on what that piece of information may be.

- I'm generally concerned about the lack of video evidence of NB at any time after leaving her home. Again, if it exists I cannot think why it wouldn't have been released, so I am assuming it does not exist. This in itself is not 'fishy' (it's a rural area), but it serves to increase the likelihood that if something fishy has happened, it could have gone unnoticed

- Whilst I don't subscribe to 'woo woo'-type thinking or conspiracies, I do feel that the 'wisdom of the crowd' and the 'gut-sense' that something's off is not to be sniffed at. As humans, we got to where we are by being good at interpreting social cues, pattern recognition, and sensing danger etc. Sometimes this means we get anxious/fearful when we shouldn't, but sometimes it means we're good at 'sensing' when something isn't right. A lot of people 'sense' something isn't right, and I do put some weight on that.

So what does that leave?

Here are my remaining theories, in order of likelihood (IMO) - and I am being careful not to be victim-unfriendly or overly speculative on anyone not a POI.

1. Voluntary exit by NB. Won't speculate specifically why, or where she went, or where she is - the options are numerous. Whatever the specifics, she would have voluntarily left the riverside, and she wasn't seen leaving. Implies she deliberately left her belongings, I won't speculate why.

2. Disagreement with someone she knew, or knew of, that resulted in her leaving the riverside and eventually coming to harm. There are lots of scenarios potential scenarios here, and I won't speculate. In all of them, she's not seen leaving, and her belongings and dog were likely returned to the scene. Exactly when they were returned to the scene would depend on who the third party was - it's either before 9.33, or any point before 10.50.

3. NB was never in the riverside area. Implies, for whatever reason, that she simply did not arrive there after dropping the girls at school, and that witness statements are either deliberately fabricated or mistaken - either is possible, and it kind of depends again on the reason. This scenario implies her belongings were placed at the scene. I give this whole scenario less likelihood because I assume telephony data gives LE more confidence she was there. Unless LE can prove she was there (dash-cam/CCTV), we have to go on witness statement combined with phone data - which together are pretty solid (hence why I think this is the least likely option), but don't completely guarantee NB was there, in person.

Have you seen the latest MSM report? Police searching for Nicola Bulley have been told about new ‘tatty red van’ lead

 

[Officer Dibble]

I saw the structure that I think you mean, but I don’t know if I’d describe it as a barn. Maybe others would, but I suppose it’s not helpful regardless, as we don’t know if that’s where the witness is referring to. I’m a bit sceptical about this overall. An old red van sounds too much like something out of a TV series for my liking. JMO.

There are thousands of 'van lifers' in the UK. Very plausible IMO

 

[russeverton]

no, it is not. The upper field is near the camping pods and caravan park.

View attachment 401607

The lower field is nearer the caravan park the upper field is much nearer to hall lane although it is across the river

 

[jackal67]

I've just realised we don't have any information on where Nicola parked her car.
But we know she drove there, and dropped the kids at school.

It looks from street view, that parents park along Hall Lane leading up to a property that looks like a barn.

View attachment 401593

thought she left her car in the school car park? Not sure if this has been verified by LE? So MOO

 

[kev4pe]

So now there is a tatty red van. seems a long way from where she was last spotted but van could have moved around.