I don't think this makes sense. The collapses themselves did not make sense. That's not statistical. They happened at times thar didn't make sense, to babies that didn't make sense, and when resuscitation was started, it didn't progress the way it should have. That's not math. That's just real life.
I started typing about logical fallacies and peculiar mentality of a doctor who started looking at nurses as potential culprits for increased NICU mortality...and stopped. This case, MOO, is not what it seems.
Consider this:
1) the case started with "who did it?" related to increased NICU mortality, as evidenced by that spreadsheet. And then, a "connection" with LL was noticed, and only then came the question "how did she do it?" Air embolism was not a finding but a suggested strategy, hence the "Lee sign", etc. IMO, they are still not sure, how, but are convinced that she did.
2) The hospital executives' disbelief notwithstanding, one fact is crucial:
by the time the doctors took it outside the unit, both had to be fully convinced that their suspicion was true. Thinking "we have a killer in NICU" doesn't happen in a day. So:
what made the doctors so sure of planned human, any human, involvement in babies' deaths to start with?
3) highly unusual for a colleague, be it a nurse or a doctor, to be accused of being a killer. Anything, negligence, laziness, philandering, corruption, unprofessionalism, drinking, all nine yards, medics get it. A killer? Unthinkable.
So: to me it would appear that
the whole case must have started with someone else's personal suspicion formed earlier. It could have followed LL to COCH.
Also: high percentage of dislodged tubes during Lucy's training didn't come out of nowhere. To me, it is the only solid statistic fact available for the whole case. Much better than NICU spreadsheet.
So JMO, MOO, etc: There might have been vague suspicions about LL formed earlier, and not among COCH doctors. But as nothing could be proven, people could end up asking themselves, "am i paranoid to think of it?" And then, with Lucy moving to COCH, at first, things were fine there, but in several years, this peak happened. Maybe less of a peak and more, change in the behavior. Medical personnel communicates; some pieces must have formed a puzzle.
This is the only logical way I can explain this case. Nothing else makes sense. It feels strange. I am dismissing all what Lucy wrote and her handout sheets, too. However, I can't but notice the inconsistencies of the story, even the trial, unless I accept the obvious.
However, no one ever caught LL. Even remotely. Even the insulin case might be falling apart and opinions diverge. And, with all suspicions, Lucy could have simply been a misunderstood, klutzy nurse. The whole case is incredibly far from airtight. It is often the pattern in trials basing on insiders' information, but this one is put together clumsily and generates more of questions. Some additional information might have been provided to the jury, if any, but we the public don't have it. And lastly, there is always a chance that someone suspecting Lucy is merely paranoid. She could have been negligent, obsessive, distracted by a doctor's attention, immature, and more, without intent to kill.
MOO: the case clearly calls for a very thorough review by a good UK expert panel who will be privy to all facts. And also, good statistics could be helpful. Putting a young woman behind bars for life in no way can lodge on a unit spreadsheet or on a professional trial witness fifteen years out of any touch with real medicine.