WA WA - Ed Jeffko, 72, Tonasket, 23 July 2012 - Missing pilot and plane

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  • #81
Prayers continued! Not forgotten.
 
  • #82
Now that the season has changed and there is most likely snow in the area where Ed was flying, has it changed/made the landscape more revealing in any manner? Are these evergreen trees or have they shed for winter revealing more of the terrain? It seems as if this might be a good time for another search of the fly over area?
 
  • #83
rosesfromangels said:
Now that the season has changed and there is most likely snow in the area where Ed was flying, has it changed/made the landscape more revealing in any manner? Are these evergreen trees or have they shed for winter revealing more of the terrain? It seems as if this might be a good time for another search of the fly over area?
Click to expand...

We are the Evergreen State...thats for sure. At the elevation, where Ed more then likely went down,the landscape is mostly all evergreen. Its thick with underbrush...vine maple etc. and ALOT of evergreen trees. TALL trees..hundreds of years old. Now,Im ASSUMING this is the terrain in which he is hidden. Of course I dont know for sure,but odds are.
Yes...alot of snow.
I agree that due to ANY changes in the landscape,it may be a good time for another fly over. Maybe some branches have broken to reveal a part of the plane. Perhaps the winds have changed the terrain enough to show us what we're searching for. I dont know.
I havent heard any word about new searches or fly overs. But I do know his friends (alot are also pilots) are always on the look out for any sign of Eds plane.

And..thank you again for always checking back. It really does mean alot.
 
  • #84
There's also a chance that the plane is covered in snow and is going to be hard to see :(
 
  • #85
Lots of people doing "winter activities" head out and into many areas that are normally not walked through (backcountry skiing, snowshoeing, etc) other parts of the year so that is a positive! Many lost people have been recovered by chance because someone was doing something outside and stumbled upon wreckage in a remote area. Thoughts go out to Eds wife, family, friends for the new year - hope this year they find Ed and his plane! But yes probably have to wait until the snow finally melts for another search.
 
  • #86
GateKeeper said:
We are the Evergreen State...thats for sure. At the elevation, where Ed more then likely went down,the landscape is mostly all evergreen. Its thick with underbrush...vine maple etc. and ALOT of evergreen trees. TALL trees..hundreds of years old. Now,Im ASSUMING this is the terrain in which he is hidden. Of course I dont know for sure,but odds are.
Yes...alot of snow.
I agree that due to ANY changes in the landscape,it may be a good time for another fly over. Maybe some branches have broken to reveal a part of the plane. Perhaps the winds have changed the terrain enough to show us what we're searching for. I dont know.
I havent heard any word about new searches or fly overs. But I do know his friends (alot are also pilots) are always on the look out for any sign of Eds plane.

And..thank you again for always checking back. It really does mean alot.
Click to expand...

So this case woke me up last night. I can't stop thinking about Ed's wife and how she must be feeling. Here's my thought process, based on two very different theories.

First, I analyzed whether Ed might have planned his disappearnce for any reason. Was he ill and wanted to take a last flight and spare himself/his wife from a lingering illness? (I decided no, he would have left her a note if this were the case). Then I speculated on whether he was in some sort of trouble financially or otherwise, that would lead him to bolt. (Nothing I have read would lead me to conclude this). Finally, I pondered whether Ed was suffering from any form of dementia that could have caused him to "wander off". (Again, I haven't read anything that would suggest this). Everything I have read about this gentleman is that both he and his wife are much loved, and solid citizens in their community.

As such, I am now going to firmly plant my theory towards the plane having gone down. What I have learned from the few years I've been participating in this forum, is not to deviate too far from the practical possibility. Folks tend to get a bit far reaching in their theories when there is an absence of data. In the marjority of cases, the reality tends to be more predictable. I believe this is the case with Ed.

I compare Ed's case to that of the two teenage boys who went missing driving from a late night party to the beach. (One was Jake Ziegler). Theories started getting more and more far fetched. I stuck to my theory that they went off the road, and that it was just hard to find a car off the highway. That was exactly the case. I believe this is similar with Ed. I suspect he was "following the road" as someone stated earlier, had a heart attack, and that his plane isn't too far from the road. With the terrain you describe, it's not hard to understand why the plane hasn't been found.

I truly believe his plane will be found not too far from that road path, and that he will be brought home to his beloved wife. My prayers continue. This man sounds like he spent his life as a contributing citizen who was loved by many, and his wife deserves closure. God Bless.
 
  • #87
rosesfromangels said:
So this case woke me up last night. I can't stop thinking about Ed's wife and how she must be feeling. Here's my thought process, based on two very different theories.

First, I analyzed whether Ed might have planned his disappearnce for any reason. Was he ill and wanted to take a last flight and spare himself/his wife from a lingering illness? (I decided no, he would have left her a note if this were the case). Then I speculated on whether he was in some sort of trouble financially or otherwise, that would lead him to bolt. (Nothing I have read would lead me to conclude this). Finally, I pondered whether Ed was suffering from any form of dementia that could have caused him to "wander off". (Again, I haven't read anything that would suggest this). Everything I have read about this gentleman is that both he and his wife are much loved, and solid citizens in their community.

As such, I am now going to firmly plant my theory towards the plane having gone down. What I have learned from the few years I've been participating in this forum, is not to deviate too far from the practical possibility. Folks tend to get a bit far reaching in their theories when there is an absence of data. In the marjority of cases, the reality tends to be more predictable. I believe this is the case with Ed.

I compare Ed's case to that of the two teenage boys who went missing driving from a late night party to the beach. (One was Jake Ziegler). Theories started getting more and more far fetched. I stuck to my theory that they went off the road, and that it was just hard to find a car off the highway. That was exactly the case. I believe this is similar with Ed. I suspect he was "following the road" as someone stated earlier, had a heart attack, and that his plane isn't too far from the road. With the terrain you describe, it's not hard to understand why the plane hasn't been found.

I truly believe his plane will be found not too far from that road path, and that he will be brought home to his beloved wife. My prayers continue. This man sounds like he spent his life as a contributing citizen who was loved by many, and his wife deserves closure. God Bless.
Click to expand...

WOW!! That was the an amazing post Roses!! Damnit,you made me cry. :o
Youre spot on..IMO. Ive spent alot of time wondering and trying to understand why this happened. But in the end I TOTALLY agree with you. Ed is a wonderful family man..his first concern will always be for Claire. I dont believe he would have just flown away with the intention of never returning. This was not his way of dealing with sickness or finances...or anything.
Im of the opinion that he took off from the airport that day with the plan to return with his grandson..but either he had a medical emergency or something went wrong with his Glasair. He went down...and for whatever reason was unable to make contact with "us".

My mind has gone a million places wondering where he is. I DO have my theory about a location...but its just a theory. I believe he WILL be found someday...probably where they have already searched. It seems to happen like that,huh? We have to stay "simple" in our thinking sometimes...because thats usually the answer.
 
  • #88
rosesfromangels said:
So this case woke me up last night. I can't stop thinking about Ed's wife and how she must be feeling. Here's my thought process, based on two very different theories.

First, I analyzed whether Ed might have planned his disappearnce for any reason. Was he ill and wanted to take a last flight and spare himself/his wife from a lingering illness? (I decided no, he would have left her a note if this were the case). Then I speculated on whether he was in some sort of trouble financially or otherwise, that would lead him to bolt. (Nothing I have read would lead me to conclude this). Finally, I pondered whether Ed was suffering from any form of dementia that could have caused him to "wander off". (Again, I haven't read anything that would suggest this). Everything I have read about this gentleman is that both he and his wife are much loved, and solid citizens in their community.

As such, I am now going to firmly plant my theory towards the plane having gone down. What I have learned from the few years I've been participating in this forum, is not to deviate too far from the practical possibility. Folks tend to get a bit far reaching in their theories when there is an absence of data. In the marjority of cases, the reality tends to be more predictable. I believe this is the case with Ed.

I compare Ed's case to that of the two teenage boys who went missing driving from a late night party to the beach. (One was Jake Ziegler). Theories started getting more and more far fetched. I stuck to my theory that they went off the road, and that it was just hard to find a car off the highway. That was exactly the case. I believe this is similar with Ed. I suspect he was "following the road" as someone stated earlier, had a heart attack, and that his plane isn't too far from the road. With the terrain you describe, it's not hard to understand why the plane hasn't been found.

I truly believe his plane will be found not too far from that road path, and that he will be brought home to his beloved wife. My prayers continue. This man sounds like he spent his life as a contributing citizen who was loved by many, and his wife deserves closure. God Bless.
Click to expand...

I totally agree with you. It reminds me of Trista, Matt and Shyann. It was a plane accident, and they were quite lucky to have been found. There was nothing sinister going on, although some speculated that might have been the case given the relationship dynamics.

http://www.websleuths.com/forums/showthread.php?t=191842&highlight=trista
 
  • #89
O.K. then, it sounds like we are all on the same wavelength. Let's take this line of thinking a step further, but I'll need some help with this as I'm not a pilot. You know where Ed started out and where he was headed. Since he didn't log a flight plan that day, let's come up with three possibilities ourselves. (Again, we need a pilot who knows that area to help with this.)
1. Had he flown this trip before? If so, did he log a flight plan? That would be possibility #1.
2. Was he flying a different plane (I know this was the one he built himself) than he did on other similar trips? Did this plane have different capabilities that would require him to fly differently, or compensate in some manner? (Such as fly lower/higher/slower, whatever). Was the instrumentation different that it would require different navigation or flight characteristics? (This would be scenario #2)
3. Had Ed been talking about wanting to see something in flight in particular? An example would be, "I am going to fly east first because I want to see how much snow is on the mountain range" or something like that. Did Ed have any little "land marks" he loved to see on flights over this particular terrain? Would he fly landmark to landmark all his way to his destination? (I drive like this so I think a pilot might do something similar). (This is scenario #3

Taking these three scenarios in to consideration, now is the time to apply some science and this is where I *really* need some help from you pilots.
First take the three possible flight plans based on the posed scenarios above.
Chart that out on a map.
Now go back to that day and get as much specific weather/wind information as you possibly can.
Analyze that very very carefully.
What specific times of the day where it is believed he could have been flying, was there disruptive or abrupt changes in wind/weather?
What was the wind "current" that day/time frame?

Now look at the three possible flight plans you've devised and layer on the weather/disruptive weather times.
During these disruptive patterns, per each of the three flight plans, where would his plane have "drifted" or been directed to if he ceased control due to unconsciousness?

I know this exercise is a bit far fetched, but it merits consideration. I think someone with engineering/pilot skill could model it out on a computer. Unfortunately, I can't.
Perhaps all this has already been done. If so, I'd do it again. It just makes sense to me.
God Bless you all, and especially Claire. If I come up with any good thoughts other than prayers, I will post them. I will continue to check in here and will not give up hope.
God's blessings and continued strength to Claire, and all of you who love Ed. That love really comes across in your posts.
 
  • #90
Doesn't seem far fetched to me.. heck it's such a huge area anything that helps narrow it down must help.

I did read the first thread but it was a while ago, so excuse me if this has been covered.

Did Ed ever take anyone with him on that route? Just wondering if he or a passenger might have taken photos of the trip that would provide a clue to his flight path. It sounds like he had regularly collected family, and Claire had also travelled with him.

Did the plane have any form of autopilot and how much fuel was aboard? If he collapsed, just wondering how far it might have gone before it ran out.

How long had he had the plane, sounds like it was relatively new to him?
 
  • #91
Wolf Dreamer said:
Doesn't seem far fetched to me.. heck it's such a huge area anything that helps narrow it down must help.

I did read the first thread but it was a while ago, so excuse me if this has been covered.

Did Ed ever take anyone with him on that route? Just wondering if he or a passenger might have taken photos of the trip that would provide a clue to his flight path. It sounds like he had regularly collected family, and Claire had also travelled with him.

Did the plane have any form of autopilot and how much fuel was aboard? If he collapsed, just wondering how far it might have gone before it ran out.

How long had he had the plane, sounds like it was relatively new to him?
Click to expand...

I think you're on the right track here. While he could have taken a different route that day, we are creatures of habit. The variable might have been the weather conditions. Your question of how far a plane would drift before it went down is an important one. When you add the wind conditions to that formula, as well as his normal flight pattern, you possibly get closer.
 
  • #92
You guys may be onto something here!
Ok..let me talk to the folks and see if Claire has said anything regarding different routes Ed has taken in the past. Ill go back and check out the weather on that day...I think its in the the thread somewhere.

WOLF....Ill also check about any pictures taken on previous flights. As far as I know Ed had a full tank of gas when he left...and no autopilot.
 
  • #93
Did Ed ever take anyone with him on that route? Just wondering if he or a passenger might have taken photos of the trip that would provide a clue to his flight path. It sounds like he had regularly collected family, and Claire had also travelled with him.

Did the plane have any form of autopilot and how much fuel was aboard? If he collapsed, just wondering how far it might have gone before it ran out.

How long had he had the plane, sounds like it was relatively new to him?
Click to expand...

Ed built the Glasair...he knew it like the back of his hand. He flew it alot and was a great pilot. .....which,in a way,makes this even more of a mystery.
The Glasair is a tiny plane and could glide for a very long distance not under power. That one Im SURE of. But if we add in any strong winds or down drafts,it would GREATLY affect the plane. Just picture a tiny,two seater plane...smaller and shorter then a Cesna.
 
  • #94
Pauls statement TOTALLY rings true for me.

http://blogs.seattletimes.com/today/topic/mountains/

“Our dad is a highly-qualified pilot with over 40 years flight experience, and all that knowledge and skill leads us to believe that successfully landing in an emergency situation is likely — even in the rough terrain of the Cascade mountains,” said family member Paul Jeffko in a statement. “We remain hopeful that he will be located, and grateful to WSDOT and the hundreds of others actively searching.”
Click to expand...
 
  • #95
Ed, I haven't forgotten you, or the love of your life Claire. We need to find you and get you to your proper rest. You continue in my prayers!

Gatekeeper, have there been night searches conducted flying as low as is safe using bright search lights? It seems that at night time with bright search lights there would be a better chance of catching the reflection of metal?
 
  • #96
Let's pray with Spring approaching, so are the answers to Ed's disappearance.
Praying...
 
  • #97
  • #98
Wolf Dreamer said:
Been thinking about Ed lately for some reason...

Can't remember if the NTSB report was posted

http://www.ntsb.gov/aviationquery/brief.aspx?ev_id=20120806X11036&key=1
Click to expand...

Thank you Wolf :)
Yep youre right,this hasnt been posted yet. My bad.

There are no new "official" searches planned for Ed as of today,but that doesnt stop us from doing a quick fly over. Until he is found,we wont stop looking.
I wish so much that more folks knew about this thread. With summer approaching there will be alot of hikers and campers...if more folks were aware of Ed and his plane,I know they would be willing to take that extra look or maybe pass the word. IDK.
A glint of sunlight off of one of the wings...a part of the plane in a tree...anything. Someone will see it and we will be able to bring Ed home.

Bless ALL your hearts for continuing to pray and think about Ed and Claire. :heartbeat:
 
  • #99
Does anyone have a picture of the airplane he was flying? A nice clear shot, maybe even one with him with and the plane? Does he have a easy to read poster with good photos? I think his information should be sent to all small airports across north central WA, he could literally be anywhere. Same with hiking trail starts, recreational areas, etc. I hope once all the snow melts in the mountains (most likely? where he ended up) that he can be found.



Are there any pilots on WS? If so, please post and contribute!
 
  • #100
never mind! I found a photo of his plane, I believe this is his exact plane, color, etc unless he changed it prior to the flight he disappeared on.

Plane is a Glasair N743CA, built it himself.
120724_ed_jeffko_plane_lg.jpg
 
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