They definitely believe it was him. His mom identified this very specific move he does with his arms in that video that they consider one of his "signature moves." And as a mom of a 21yo ASD kiddo, I am sure I would know if this were my kid based on the movements. The full video is also 2-3 minutes long.
We haven't found any connections to Kirkland, except his sister lives there and teaches at the local high school. She's still livid that when they showed up there, no police came to search her house, etc. as you would imagine that would be protocol to rule her out.
We have continued to contact hospitals, homeless encampments, fire, police (trust me, many officers don't know about him even in these areas), etc. However, as time passes and with that huge reward, I feel confident he is not outside or in an institutional setting. It feels more and more likely he is with someone who since June 23rd is ensuring that he isn't seen - maybe they left the region at that point?
One of our volunteers is still very interested in homeless encampments and is again going to canvas the region handing out business cards.
Back in July, we did put outdoor signs and bags of things for him on the trail near where he was spotted, but I think consensus is that he is not going to be outside as he would have been spotted by someone by now.